Speech of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on June 14th, 2013.

In His Name

I take refuge in Allah from the stoned devil. In the Name of Allah, The Compassionate, The Most Merciful. Peace be on the Seal of prophets, our Master and Prophet, Abi Al Qassem Mohammad and on his chaste and pure Household and on his chosen companions and on all messengers and prophets.

Dear Scholars! Brothers and sisters! Peace be upon you and Allah's mercy and blessings.

On this blessed day and dear ceremony – The Injured Fighter Day – and in the occasion of the blessed, dear, and nice ceremonies, I would like first to thank you all for your honored attendance in the various places whether in Dahiyeh, Baalbeck, Nabatiyeh, or in Deir Qanoun.

I also felicitate you on the fragranced occasions of the Month of Shaaban – the anniversary of the birthday of the Grandson of the Prophet of Allah (Peace be upon him) – the Master of the men of Heaven Imam Abi Abdullah Al Hussein Bin Ali (Peace be upon him), the anniversary of the birthday of Imam Zein Al Aabideen Ali Bin Al Hussein (Peace be upon him), and the anniversary of the birthday of the resisting martyr – the title of our day – Abi Al Fadl Al Abbass Bin Ali Bin Abi Taleb (Peace be upon them all). We also felicitate you on the occasion that will come on the days to come, the birthday of the Lord of our Time, Baqiyet Allah in this world, Imam Mahdi (Our souls are at the sacrifice of his reappearance).

It goes without saying that first our speech will tackle the person we are honoring today – Abi Al Fadl Al Abbass whose birthday was rightfully chosen to be the day of the resisting, sacrifice-offering injured fighter. It is the day of our wounded brethrens and sisters who are sharing in our meeting and others who are sharing us via their TV screens at their homes or in hospitals.

As usual, I will make an outline for my speech. First, I would like to give a word on the occasion. I have a word on the Lebanese affair, a word on the Syrian affair and the current atmospheres – the post-Qusair era and the reactions. However, first, I would like to thank all the injured brothers and sisters whether those present here in the meeting or those in hospitals now or at home but were not able to show up and join us. I address them with the most sublime feelings of gratitude and thankfulness for the favors, jihad, and wounds they offered for us, our people, our country, our homeland, and our sanctities. I also laud their sacrifice-offering and honorable families, mothers, fathers, and wives who are bearing heavy loads in this perspective.

We must also thank all the medical staff who followed up our wounded from the very first moment – from the first aids to the continuous care. Moreover, we must salute all the brothers and sisters in The Injured Fighter Institution and all those who work in the various social bodies and institutions whom Allah Al Mighty honored by serving the injured and the families of these injured.

Though it is The Injured Fighter Day – the day of the alive martyrs -, we must salute all the families of all the martyrs who offered their sons and dear ones in this path and for the sake of these holy goals. I must also offer special salutations to the families of the martyrs of the recent confrontations who have shown a high degree of insight, faith, and steadfastness, as I have said in more than one occasion.

Brothers and sisters! Al Abbass Bin Ali Bin Abi Taleb (Peace be upon them) is that handsome young man who was nicknamed as the Moon of Hachem Clan. This thirty-four-year-man was the leader of the camp of Al Hussein (Peace be upon him) in Karbala. His faith, biography, and jihad made him a great title and a symbol for loyalty and insight. Imam Sadeq (Peace be upon him) says in his visit to Abi Al Fadl Al Abbass (Peace be upon him) that Al Abbass was a title for certitude, courage, chivalry, altruism, patience, faithfulness, admission, obedience, and steadfastness on one's position until martyrdom. Thus he became the ideal to be followed by the mujahedeen who are not halted by their severe wounds from continuing in their mission towards reaching the goal. We all know the story. When Al Abbass (Peace be upon him) headed towards Euphrates shore, he was performing a definite mission which is providing the women, the children, the orphans, the rest of the army, and Imam Hussein (Peace be upon him) with water. Thus he set to his mission. On his way back, his right hand was severed; he carried on in his mission. The entire hand was cut; the wounds were grave. Then the left hand was cut. Still he carried on in his mission. He embraced the jar of water with what was left of his hands, chest, and head. On his way, his hand was hit with an arrow. He did not stop and carried on until he died and met Allah Al Mighty and thus was his martyrdom.

Thus Al Abbass (Peace be upon him) is a moral, a symbol, and a title for all the mujahedeen who are carrying on in their struggle despite severe wounds. They carry on exploiting all their powers in performing the mission that serves the goal.

His birthday is the day of our injured. It is rather the day for every resisting fighting injured. He is the day of our injured in Lebanon since the launch of the resistance in 1982. He is the ideal for the faithful mujahedeen – the people of insight, certitude, courage, altruism, patience, obedience, and steadfastness on one's position in the various fields without ever changing their position. Here they are today among you in these halls and everywhere asserting their steadfastness, commitment, presence, and carrying on in this path. They have practiced potentiality and action to offer their souls and blood, and it was Allah's will that they stay alive – that they remain the alive martyrs and hold their wounds, the pain of their wounds, the patience on their wounds and to face this trial with patience and steadfastness.

My injured brother and sisters! Today your wounds are a continuous alive testimony. Allah Al Mighty wanted these wounds in these days as in the past stages to be a continuous alive testimony for the present and future generations on historic events, on field facts, and on events that took place on the near past and in modern history at least since 1982. So they are not events that took place 50, 100, or 500 years ago. We are talking about events that many of the living people today have experienced them, suffered from them, and followed them up. However, many of the young men and women and the generations who were born after these events might not know anything about these events and these facts. Some want this history and this stage in the near past to be scattered away. Some work at falsifying these facts and turning them upside-down.

Brothers and sisters! The wounds of everyone of you have a story. Where was the hand of this wounded severed? Where was the leg of that wounded cut off? Where did that wounded lose his sight? Where was this wounded semi-paralyzed or totally-paralyzed? Where was that wounded hit in this side of his body and that wounded afflicted in that side of his body? Each of your wounds has a story and narrates a story of a bursting into a position here or defending or confronting an aggression in a village there, a bomb here or an ambush there, a martyrdom attack here or an attempt to save a wounded who fell in the battle field there.

These events and stories must be inked and must be inherited by generations. Your wounds remind us of the heroism of the resistance men in the events and confrontations of July 1993 with the Israeli enemy which were called by the enemy the Settlement Operation. Your wounds remind us of the heroism of the resistance fighters in the confrontations which the enemy called "The Grapes of Wrath" in the war of April 1996. Your wounds recall the heroism of our fighters and people in the liberation that took place in May 2000 and the historic epic of 2006 until our day. The resistance men with their martyrs and wounded and heroes make epics and victories.

These wounds narrate the story of the resistance in Lebanon - the story of its people, men, women, audience, supporters, and adorers. This resistance has owned sufficient awareness and clear vision. Since the very beginning, there was clarity. There was awareness of the risks of remaining silent on the Israeli occupation and the US and multinational occupation of Lebanon in 1982, and the risks and repercussions of the silence and coexistence with the US hegemony project on Lebanon and the region in 1982. Besides awareness, vision, and insight, this resistance owned the will to fight to liberate despite the rarity of supporters and the abandonment of the Arabs and the silence of the Arab and Islamic worlds – except for Iran and Syria – and the abundance of the enemy and the accomplice of the Lebanese internal. This resistance – whom you are its wounded who offered sacrifice – has fought for long years and offered martyrs and wounded, and thousands of its dear men and women have entered prisons and detention centers. Houses were demolished and fields were blazed. People were displaced from their villages and towns in the framework of the jihad and sacrifices of this resistance. This resistance with this enormous magnitude of sacrifices liberated Lebanon from occupation.

If today there is a country in Lebanon, if there is liberation and freedom, if there is an entity, a state and pride, if there is dignity, economy, wealth, and water, if there is someone able to search for oil and gas in the Lebanese waters, if there is someone able to protect the waters, oil, and resources, if there is anything in this country, it is thanks to all the resistance fighters, the resistance factions, and the sacrifices of the resistance fighters, martyrs, wounded, and prisoners.

Following our praise to Allah, our thanks are only for the resistance or else the Lebanese region would have still been a place for Israeli settlements; our waters would have been passed on to the settlements while the original residents would have been denied this water as is the case today in the West Bank; our discovered gas and oil would have been adjoined to Tamar Oil Field; our government would have been a mere administrative autonomy and an authority annexed to the Israeli occupation, and we would have been ruled by an Israeli military governor as we were ruled in Tyr, Sidon, Beirut, Mount Liban, West Bekaa, and Rashaya.

Who expelled these military governors from our towns and from controlling our country and people?

After all, it was this resistance which toppled all the projects of hegemony and occupation. It guarded this Lebanon. This near continuing past must not be forgotten. It must not be forgotten brothers and sisters, Lebanese, Arabs, and Muslims. Some are working to eliminate this history and this past. No! This near past must not be forgotten because this battle is a continuation for this past, for the struggle of this past, for the battle of this past, and because the ongoing battle aims at making all the achievements and sacrifices of this near past vulnerable.

Our generations must know everything about this decisive historic stage in the history of Lebanon and the region. All the generations must know about that stage. Who conspired? Who abandoned? Who resisted? Who offered sacrifices? Who tolerated losses and who was gaining spoils? Who fought? Who remained silent? Who was national? Who collaborated? Who fought the occupier? Who shook hands with the occupier? Who was killed so as not to shake hands with the occupier? These things must be known so that things won't become confused and so that the national remains national and so that the resistance man does not become a highwayman or a robber, and so that the collaborator does not turn to be a national man who gives certificates in nationality!

This is the responsibility of everyone – elites, the educated, scholars, authors, artists, and all people in all domains. Even the injured must narrate to their children, neighbors must tell their neighbors…. Well, yes we are confronting a very vast media confrontation which is trying to falsify this history.

Here off I usher into the Lebanese situation and from it we will move to the Syrian situation.

Brothers and sisters! Let's set the bases. We are a primary part in this country, this nation, and this land. We are part of the structure of this dear and noble Lebanese people who offered great and massive sacrifices. I am not giving this prelude to talk history. I am setting the bases for the present.

We have offered sacrifices from among our people, children, dear ones, wealth, houses, pains, hardships, efforts, and patience. We do not begrudge anyone anything. This was for our Hereafter and for the pride and dignity of our life. This was also for our country, people, nation, and sanctities. That means that we are among those people who are most careful about Lebanon and its security, sanctity, civil peace, unity, state, entity, and existence. The popular proverb applies here: Whatever you pay much for – what you tire for and what you offer blood for - is not similar to what you get for free. There is a big difference.

The easiest thing for some people in Lebanon when facing difficulties, calamities, challengers, and risks is to pack and leave and travel abroad so as to live in peace and serenity. We are not as such.

Similar to what I usually used to talk about in the occasions of martyrs and the various occasions, let me talk a bit about this Resistance and about this party in particular. We do not have two nationalities. We have one nationality – the Lebanese nationality. We are Lebanese not for more than ten years but rather for hundreds of years. Some among us are even Lebanese for thousands of years. We do not have houses outside Lebanon. We do not have money outside Lebanon. We do not have projects outside Lebanon. Well some Lebanese emigrants - May Allah bless them – were obliged by circumstances to leave. However, in Hezbollah we do not have anything. We are here. I used always to say and here I am saying again: We are here. We were born here. We live here. We grew up here. We will stay here. We will die here. We will be martyred here. We will be buried here. This is our land and country. No one can uproot us from our land and country. This is to those who talk about uprooting.

The most powerful army in the Middle East and one of the main armies in the world, namely the Israeli Army, was crushed under the feet of our fighters in Bint Jbeil, Aita Al Shaab, and Maroon Al Ras. Stupid are those who talk about uprooting here and uprooting there.

Well, we have paid costly for this country to stay and we will stay in it; for its dignity, and in it we will remain dignified; for its freedom and in it we will remain free; for its pride and we will remain proud in it. We will remain ready to pay great and high prices for this target and this goal.

Based on this, let me tackle a couple of points quickly concerning the Lebanese situation because we have a couple of words to say about the Syrian situation.

Concerning the Lebanese situation, it goes without saying that I can't talk about everything. So let no one ask why I did not talk about this point or that I forgot that point or left that point. The limited time does not give us the opportunity to elaborate…. However, there are some points which I believe are a bit sensitive. Thus we will tackle them.

The first point is concerning politics. In brief, everyone is waiting to see the result of the challenge against the constitutional council to know whether they will extend to the council or we will go for elections. On the light of that, the time and track of the future government will be determined. We are with the Lebanese who are waiting and Allah likes those who wait. We have nothing new in this perspective.

However, in this framework, we condemn the intervention of the US Embassy which is rejected in this sovereign or constitutional affair or the Lebanese electoral affair. It is also rejected that they practice threat - even if indirectly - on the Lebanese to push things in a definite track. This is just a little or the mounting US intervention in Lebanon, the countries of the region, and the world.

Second: Concerning the security situation, first we call for the highest degree of self-restraint. We are all in the atmosphere. No one is living in a villa in a far away isolated island. After all, what is taking place in Syria, what is taking place in the entire region is reflected on Lebanon. Well apart from what is taking place in the region, Lebanon is already suffering from crises at least since 2005. In the latest stage, there have been media pressure, political pressure, and accusations.

That has led to agitation in the street and agitation among people. At times people lose their temper and mind and thus might undertake inappropriate, incorrect, illegitimate, and illegal acts what might lead – especially in extraordinary conditions – to dangers risks.

We call for the highest degree of self-restraint and for avoiding any form of tension or clashes. Here we are making a call on all the Lebanese and all the people over the Lebanese territories whether Lebanese, Syrians, Palestinians or others. However, I want to make a special address to the resistance audience and more precisely the people who if they say anything or do anything, we usually will be held responsible. Thus we stress that it is imperative to practice self control whether in states of grief, anger, or happiness. That's because any practice or conduct even if trivial or minor in such tense atmospheres may lead to inappropriate repercussions on Lebanon, on the people, on security, on stability, and on all of us.

Self control must be practiced even in personal disputes. Well, at times the judicial authorities do not tackle all causes or at times some cases might take long time. Thus disputes whether financial, persona, or business occur among people. This takes place in Lebanon since a long time. This is not something new – kidnapping, aggressions, shooting…. Well in principle this must not take place. Moreover in this stage, we call for more patience even in personal cases and personal rights. That's because any personal dispute which takes place in any region is instantly given factional dimension, sectarian dimension, party dimension and political dimension due to the political and media mobilization and conspiracy. Thus we would be somewhere and then find ourselves somewhere else.

Second, amid this speech let's make a kind of self-criticism. There is a phenomenon in Lebanon and not only among our audience. It is rather among the Lebanese in general or among many or the Lebanese and not all of them. It is the phenomenon of opening fire in the air in every occasion. Lately this phenomenon has increased in an offensive way.

Well nowadays in holiday people open fire; in political occasions, they open fire; in funerals of martyrs, they open fire. Soon academic results will be announced. They will rejoice for whoever passes in the brevet class with firing in the air. They will rejoice for whoever passes in the "baccalaureate" with firing in the air. Firing in the air seems to be nonstop. Whenever any of the politicians – including me - show up, people start firing in the air. I am not talking about anyone else. I am talking, above all, about myself.

Well, we have tackled this point in the past. We made a wish, and we talked about this point. However, today I will say more following discussions we made with religious scholars. Though the idea is clear, we were obliged to send written requests for several major religious authorities whether in Iran or in Iraq. So we did not only contact authorities in Iran, but rather in Iran and Iraq so that people won't say we contacted only the so and so authority whose requests we do not follow. Now if we tell people that opening fire in the air is forbidden, they will ask where we got this request from. Thus we resorted to our religion and asked our scholars, authorities and jurists. That's because talking rationally did not lead anywhere, talking legally did not yield any result, and talking morally did not work too. On the contrary, some people believe that they are showing lofty morals when they open fire heavily in the air.

Thus we asked the following question: In Lebanon, fire is opened in the air. What is the result? People are terrified and intimidated. So in case those who open fire are not aware, let them know. In all villages, towns, and neighborhoods, people are horrified by the sound of bullets. Some people might believe there is a clash or fighting in the neighborhood when they hear the sound of bullets shot.

So people are horrified. At times, people are killed or injured. At times properties are burnt. Is this permissible? Is it permissible to open fire in the air? Well at times, a person who thinks himself knowledgeable might say the arms are his and the bullets are his, and people have control over their money and possessions; thus he is free to open fire in the air. So what do you have to do with him?

No, we owe him many things. After all where is he living? He lives among us. So the answer of the grand authorities – May Allah protect them all – is: No doubt this act is forbidden. I required a written answer so that no one says this is permissible or forbidden. So the answer is written and sealed. Scholars know the story. The answer is written and sealed.

This issue is forbidden. Whoever is careful for his religion and his Hereafter must be aware. Moreover, this is more forbidden when the arms are ours and the bullets are ours. Hezbollah does not allow that its arms and bullets are used as such. Thus authorities have answered that in case anyone opened fire and killed or wounded others or burnt properties, the person who opened fire would be held liable. So he has to pay blood money. He must compensate or else he will be held even more responsible on Doom's Day.

Well, some brethrens told me that we don't need to go that far as far as this issue concerned. Well no! We must go that far because this phenomenon has become very dangerous.

I address everyone and call on everyone from a rational, religious, and moral perspective and for the sake of the people, love, security of people, and stability of people to put an absolute end to this phenomenon. Whoever can't guard his ammunition and leave it at home let him give it to us as we need it. Let him donate it to the resistance. By Allah that is better for him as he will be rewarded. That will be better for him in this world and in the Hereafter. In this world, we defend him, and in the Hereafter, he will be rewarded.

Third, in the region of Baalbeck-Hermel particularly, the situation is sensitive and needs special care. You know that at times events take place in the region including the fall of rockets on some towns and cities in Bekaa (Baalbeck-Hermel).

Let's take for example what took place that day in Arsal when the Syrian Army shelled this town. Everyone started to talk about who had to take a position and how the state has to act. When rockets are shelled by armed groups, who has to take a stance or not, this is another issue.

The sensitive point that I want to tackle is that rumors are being circulated in the region of Bekaa, and some media outlets unfortunately promote these rumors and tell our people in that region that the rockets are being launched from Arsal, the town or Arsal and from the surroundings of Arsal.

Indeed, the brothers in the region know and the rest of the Lebanese know. Well we are talking about a Sunnite town in an environment with an overwhelming Shiite majority. These rumors accuse a Sunnite town of launching Katusha rockets or 107 rockets on towns and cities resided by Shiite Lebanese.

So what are they telling the residents of the region? They are telling them that these rockets are being launched from here; so go and address you problem here. On the other hand, we all know that in the region of Bekaa, personal events take place. There are problems: smuggling, disputes…. This is well known.

If someone from Arsal was aggressed against or killed, politicians or people from Arsal would accuse Hezbollah or the Shiites of killing. If there is a personal dispute, let's interrogate and investigate. Let's not be hasty in our accusations.

There is a sensitive situation there. Indeed rumors and some media outlets are working intensively in this domain. At times there are lies. At times, someone is killed, and they accuse others of killing him. But at other times, no one would be killed or kidnapped, but they circulate that 48 hours ago so and so from the such and such tribe was kidnapped. Why do they trouble people in such a way?

In this point, I want to tell our brethrens in Bekaa and the residents of Arsal that we must verify every story or given.

I assert for our people that the rockets which fell on Hermel, Baalbeck, Sirain, and Nabi Sheath so far were not launched from Arsal. They were rather launched by the armed forces from within the Syrian territories. We must find a solution for this case, and we will find a solution Inshallah.

We must be aware of the rumors, and I have focused on this example because events happen daily or almost daily, and there is media and intelligence act to cause sedition between Sunnites and Shiites in Baalbeck-Hermel in particular especially that there are different political stances whether in Arsal or in other towns. So they are trying to make use of the difference – meaning that we belong to two different sects though we are followers of one religion. We are both Muslims but we are Shiites and Sunnites, and we differ in our political stance. Incidents are taking place in our region. Thus we must be very careful.

We have a call too from Hezbollah to all the rational in Baalbeck-Hermel and they are numerous: the scholars, the wise and the dignitaries. They have already started taking some steps and working industriously to block any dangerous attempt or ordeal that some are trying to transfer to the region.

I come to the last point concerning the Lebanese situation. Today in the country there is an atmosphere of intimidation, and this is part of the general atmosphere in the region. Today there is a project rushing upon the region which I will refer to when tackling the Syrian issue by the current project in Syria and in the region backed – or rather led by – the US, Europe, and many of the Arab states, a number of Gulf countries, and enormously financed media outlets – radio and TV stations, satellites, websites, newspapers, magazines. People are ready to write 10 articles of abuse and insult daily. Moreover, on the ground there is intimidation. This is the general atmosphere. I have a stance and you have a stance. Some people think a thousand times before expressing their private stance. Here I am telling you that the atmosphere of intimidation does not prevail in Lebanon only. It prevails in the entire Arab world. When there is an opportunity, many of the leaderships, personalities, scholars, currents, and parties in the Arab and Islamic world express their true stance. However many are silent because of this stance of intimidation and because instantly fatwas of takfir, killing and even butchering are being issued against them. Fatwas of slaughtering were issued in the past; currently fatwas of butchering are being issued. Some people now want to enjoy butchering people.

In such an atmosphere, how are you to articulate a word or an idea or take a position? If I express my political stance or this scholar or that sheikh, this Sayyed or that politician, this deputy or that journalist or that person expresses his political stance, he will be faced by fatwas of takfir, killing, slaughtering, butchering, assassination attempts, and even physical aggressions.

In Lebanon, lately regions are being penalized due to their political affiliation or political stance. I do not want to go into details because there are sensitivities. However there is another detail which I must tackle: scholars were being assaulted as well as journalists and families from the honorable Sunnite sect because of their political stance.

Why? That's because of this atmosphere of intimidation. Some days ago, His Eminence dear brethren Sheikh Maher Hammoud was subject to an assassination attempt. Is this a simple incident? Are its indications simple? Allah Al Mighty saved him.

His Eminence Sheikh Maher Hammoud is a well known personality. He has his stances concerning various issues. At times he criticizes us openly; at others he sends messages to us and to me personally. At times he gives open counsels; at others he gives covert counsels. He criticizes us, and he criticizes you. He has a stance, and he has a vision.

Why is the owner of a stance addressed by opening fire on him while going to morning prayers? Fire was also opened on the car and the house of His Eminence Sheikh Ibrahim Baridi in Qib Elias. Other scholars were being assaulted, and they did not say a word. Some people were threatened, and they did not say a word. Centers for Islamic communities in the Sunnite milieu were assaulted, and they did not say a word. Why? They just are seeking being spared in such an atmosphere.

We are accused while the other viewpoint is being respected. Let's talk at least since 2005 up till now. We usually talk since before 2005. However, let's keep this era aside. Well we are a side that since 2005 up till this day and especially in the recent years has been subject to a 24-hour-daily-stream – so it is not a weekly but rather a daily stream that begins at the morning and does not end by night – not of scientific, objective arguments or intellectual and political criticism but rather of true insult, offenses, and curses to our personalities, scholars, women, honor, parties, sects, ideologies, and ideas. Indeed you are following that on TV channels and platforms. Well did we do anything? Aren't we able to do anything? No let no one say the Sayyed is begrudging us doing nothing. No! Our religion prevents us as well as our mind. Well, we tolerate the other opinion. Some might say that among the Shiite sect even, you do not tolerate the other. However, no one remained from within the Shiite sect who did not show up in TV channels in the recent weeks and held interviews and wrote articles of insults, offenses, treacheries, and accusations. They live among us. Did anyone tell them a single word? No one did.

Well, yes an incident took place in front of the Iranian Embassy. Here I am telling you that it is a rejected, unacceptable, condemned incident. Indeed it was an involuntary incident. In this incident, a dear person was killed. Here I am telling you that he was oppressively killed whoever his killer was. This issue is being investigated, and rights must not be lost. Still people tell us that we do not tolerate the other opinion. For eight years you have been abusing us. Now and precisely as I am giving my speech, there are abuses, offences, and insults for dignities, honors, and persons on TV channels. We are not doing anything. Here I am in the first clause saying to all of our brothers, sisters, people, audience, and supporters of the resistance: We want self control, patience, and tolerance whether in states of grief, anger or rejoice.

It is you who do not tolerate the other opinion. Let the people express their opinions frankly. These are with Syria, and the others are against it. What is the problem in that?

As for this atmosphere of intimidation, here I am telling you that it will not lead anywhere. If you think that fatwas of takfir and killing, disgracing others, and political and media attacks may change our stance, you are totally mistaken.

You are totally mistaken. Here I ushered into the Syrian issue. On the contrary, when we take a vision or a stance concerning the Syrian and the Lebanese issue or any other issue and you confront me with fatwas of takfir, killing, slaughtering, and butchering and accuses and abuses, you are making us more convinced in what we believe in. We become more convinced in our vision, stance, conduct, and field performance. We become more convinced that our choice is true. However, on the contrary, the outcome would be negative and not positive. Some people believe that in such a way, they can attack others and intimidate them so that they become frightened and thus retreat. However, this does not apply on us.

For long years, the resistance fought the Israeli enemy along with the entire world. The whole world – except for a few - was with Israel. In July War, Russia was with Israel. China was with Israel. All of that did not make us afraid or pushed us to succumb, become weak, or retreat. Buildings were collapsing on our heads. That's not to forget the fatwas, accusations of being adventurers and unbelievers, and calls of not deserving supplications. Well today the situation is much better. At least half of the world is with us or we are with half of the world. Isn't that so? In July War, we were alone. Only Iran and Syria were with us. Others were here and there.

Here I reached the Syrian affair and I will tackle it with a couple of words.

First, when we decided to intervene, our intervention came late contrary to the political stance which was taken since the early weeks. In the first or second weeks, we did not talk. We were observing and contemplating. Afterwards, as a result of discussions, the given and the true vision, we took a political stance which we articulated in more than one occasion. We started expressing our stance two years ago as I still remember. It was during the anniversary of the martyrdom of Sayyed Abbass, Sheikh Ragheb, and Hajj Imad in Nabi Sheath. We interpreted our stance and viewpoints which I do not want to reiterate. We set the pillars for our stances from Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen. Based on these very pillars and norms, we took our stance from Syria.

Well, we took a decision – though it was a late one – to have field intervention. Here I will talk with transparency and frankness. We took a decision of field intervention to confront the ongoing project over the Syrian territories. So the decision was not taken instantly. What does that mean? That means that it started to be formed and with time it gained maturity. The vision became clear concerning the nature of the ongoing project and its goals, and in case it worked out – and even before gaining success – if it was allowed to carry on, its repercussions and risks on Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, the region, the peoples of the region, Muslims, Christians, Sunnites, Shiites, Druze, Alawis, Ismaelites, Zaidis, and on everyone would be massive. However above all, it has its repercussions on Sunnites. This is what we said before and now we must say too. Thus we are starting from a vision and not from an emotional reaction or agitation.

The moral factor exists. Yes, it is a matter of loyalty and this factor is essential in our decision. However, the issue is not a moral issue. The issue is based on understanding and viewing the ongoing project and its risks, goals, and repercussions on the states, the peoples, and the entities. Thus we say from now on that if we were present in our position and we are fighting from our position, we would be defending Syria and the Syrian people; we would be defending Lebanon and the Lebanese people; we would be defending this state, this entity, this economy, this country, and this land. Second, pursuant to our follow up, we saw who is involved in the ongoing battle inside Syria. As for the story of people and regime, this story has been over a long time ago. There is popular division. There is a great section of the Syrian people with the regime, and there is a great part against the regime. So let no one tell us that we are with the regime against the Syrian people as his logic goes. There is a great part of the Syrian people with the regime. We are with this great part. We are with the second part as far as reform is concerned; however, we are not with it in destroying Syria. We are also with the regime in making reforms, and we are not with it in destroying Syria.

So let's keep the issue of the people and the regime aside. The scene in Syria might be "an armed Syrian opposition fighting a regime". At times the scene is not as such. There is an armed Syrian opposition and tens of thousands of armed men – here I am saying tens of thousands; but Allah only knows how many armed men there are. Perhaps they are 100 thousands or more by now – who came or were brought along from all over the world. Now some are trying to convince us that Arab states and countries from the Islamic world where there are no elections, democracy, or even a constitution or institutions are dispatching their citizens and providing them with money, facilities, and guarantees to go to Syria in order to have democratic elections and reform! Or is there another story? If such a scene exists, the whole world has then gone to Syria to fight this regime and this part of the Syrian people. The world is fighting them with their money, arms, and media. Even arming the opposition is a lie. Arming has been taking place since a long time. Well, we scrutinized the issue and found out after two years – more or less – that some people are insisting and are still moving on in this battle even if that is meant to destroy Syria or to slaughter the Syrian people. What is important is that the regime is toppled and that Syria's political and regional position changes. The regime which is meant to assume power is not a political regime. The alternative is rather chaos and the rule of groups which butcher, slaughter, and kill. Well, before this status quo, a universal war is taking place.

I address the people who were agitated because Hezbollah intervened. We were the last to get involved. They preceded us. The Future Movement and other Lebanese parties and Lebanese forces which I do not want to name, and states, groups, parties, organizations and bodies intervened before us. We were the last to get involved. I will go back to the campaign of sanctions and terrorist lists that was waged against us for intervening. Well I have a question here. Were we to intervene in Syria with the opposition, our intervention would have been blessed and welcomed. We would have become the true Hezbollah for the entire world to see. Our flags and banners would have been raised in several Arab capitals, and many Arab satellites would have let go of us. Isn't that so? Can anyone say anything else? The issue is not that of intervention. The story is not that of two states, violation of sovereignty, and Baabda Declaration.

No the story is that some people intervened along the side which the entire world wants to topple – along a side the US-Israeli-Takfiri project want to topple. If you intervened along this side, the whole world would raise against you. This is natural. This is very natural and very logical.

We go back to the very point we are talking about. It became clear to us that before this universal attack, our participation – though humble – would be helpful. Well, yes in Syria, the Syrian army is fighting all over the Syrian territories. Now did they seriously see that Hezbollah is fighting in the Provinces of Daraa, Quneytra, Hasaka, Riqqa, Deir Zour, Idlib, Tartous, and Laziqiyeh? No it is not so. We have considerable and good capabilities, and we also said we will have our coordinated, thoughtful participation. Thus we assume a part of the responsibility in confronting the grave universal project which has goals that do not stop at Syria as it targets Lebanon, the people of Lebanon, the peoples of the region, and the governments of the region. So it wants Syria and the entire region to fall and not only Syria. In the past, I used to say Syria. Now I say they also want Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, and the whole region to fall in the hand of the US-Israeli-Takfiri project.

We took this choice and we went for it. Why? That's because we are convinced that this participation is fruitful. The story is not that of being loyal only. No! For us this participation is fruitful. This has been verified so far. In fact, I do not want to talk about this. In brief, this participation is fruitful whether before or after Qusair and whether in politics, media, and the international, regional, or local levels.

Moreover, we did not go and hide. Some people reproached us. Well, if you want to fight in Syria do so; but why did you announce that?

Frankly speaking, we do not send our young men to fight in Syria and say we are delivering milk and blankets, and in case they were killed, we bury them in Syria and silent their parents in Lebanon. Never! When we go to any battle or to any place to fight, it will be pursuant to a legitimate responsibility, a vision, and a clear mission. We believe that we will be asked about that in Doom's Day and we have to answer. So if there is a battle, we have to go there whether we liked it or not. This is our obligation. We do not like this battle at all. We like that battle with Israel. However, when we fight we do not hide. When our martyrs fall, we do not feel ashamed of them. We hold their funerals in daylight, and we partake in their funerals. Indeed we do not open fire. Thus we talked openly about the cause of these martyrs and injured. Some of these injured are partaking in the festival and others are in hospitals and in their homes. They did not hide. They are not robbers or highwaymen. They are fighters and strugglers who have a cause; what is taking place is a battle, and this is the nature of the battle.

This is our stance. We went for it, and we still adhere to this stance. Thus was this uproar. In the past couple of weeks – especially following May 25 – no one spared any offence or abuse. No one spared a TV channel or a website he owns without investing it against us. Some want to put us on the terrorist list. For example, as far as I know, the Gulf Cooperation Council does not have a terrorist list. I don't know if the Arab League has a terrorist list. Now it is required that we be put on the terrorist list. The Europeans have been discussing this issue for a long time ago. Moreover, we are proud of being placed on the US terrorist list since the very beginning. We have taken into consideration all what we heard and what was said would be done in the past weeks and we were not surprised by it at all. I mean in specific that soon threats will be issued against the Lebanese living in the Gulf countries. I would like to tell you that we do not have followers of Hezbollah in the Gulf countries. After all, do you believe that a follower of Hezbollah may be allowed to live in Gulf countries? There is not anything of this sort. We do not have projects in the Gulf or in any other place. However, this is a way to threaten the Lebanese and their families.

On May 25th, I clearly said that we are going to a place and we know all its repercussions and we are ready to tolerate all its repercussions. I want to clarify this point a little bit. We are facing a project that is rushing upon the region, Lebanon, living in Lebanon, and the people in Lebanon – all the people in Lebanon. Go and ask in Syria. Go and ask the Sunnites in Syria who are not with them. Go and ask the Christians, the Druze, the Shiites, the Alawis, the Ismaelites, the Abadis, and the Zaidis. Ask them all: Do they have a place in the future of Syria with these fatwas of takfir and acts of killing which exist and which started with the Sunnites who are not with them namely His Eminence Sheikh Bouti and the prayers in Iman Mosque, the Syrian scholars who were killed because of their political stance or at times because of their political silence – meaning that they don't want to back the armed groups? When you want to confront such a project, you offer sacrifices to confront and topple such a project whether these sacrifices are martyrs, injured, or rockets that fall on our heads in Bekaa and Dahiyeh or whether some people from among us are oppressively being killed or people are treated aggressively in this Gulf state or that Arab country because of our stance of confrontation.

Here I am telling you that toppling this project which is extremely dangerous on our homelands, sanctities, and peoples is much more solemn than any sacrifices which might offer. Thus we must tolerate these sacrifices and these repercussions. So anyone who believes that putting us on the terrorist lists or threatening us with the Lebanese living in the Gulf countries or staging aggressions of any kind locally or abroad may make us change our stance is mistaken. On the contrary, similar to the stream of offences and abuses, that makes us more convinced that our stance, our track, our vision, and our position are right and deserve these sacrifices.

However the worst thing that took place in the past few weeks is a continuation of what has been taking place since years; it is the resort to sectarian speech. This is weak evidence. We would be watching a dialogue on TV channels and satellites when suddenly the dialogists start cursing each other. When someone resorts to abuses that means he is not being logical and he has no evidence or proof. Whoever has logic, evidence, and proof does not curse. Cursing and abusing are the weapon of the weak and the powerless. Here I will tell you more. We all understand the atmosphere that prevailed in the past few weeks especially in some Arab and Gulf milieus. We can understand this anger, wrath, and agitation. Why? That's because there is a project which they sponsor, they paid for billions of dollars, they invested their political ties for, and they took a suicidal inclination in it and took the adventure. In fact, they are making an adventure and nobody knows what will take place. Now they believe that the project is being defeated. I am not saying a decisive victory took place in Syria. The project has started to be defeated or is in the path of being defeated or that force balances are changing. Thus they turned pale. Well, let's understand their state. Let them go on cursing, abusing and attacking because this is the current status quo.

I will go back to the very topic in this track. It is the sectarian topic. Yes, this is the worst and most dangerous thing that is taking place. The dispute in Syria is between two fronts, two axes, two projects, and not between Shiites and Sunnites. It is not between two sects. So why do you want to make it between two sects?

Is Sheikh Bouti a Shiite? Are the Syrian scholars who back this stance Shiites?

Is the Syrian Arab Army which is fighting with tens of thousands of soldiers who are present in the battle fields Shiite or even Alawi? Why are you making the struggle in Syria a sectarian struggle? It is not sectarian and you are labeling it sectarian because you are weak, powerless and failing. All the rational Shiites, Sunnites, Muslims, and Christians must exert all their efforts to prevent turning the conflict to a sectarian conflict. The easiest thing for any side is to turn the conflict into a sectarian conflict.

I personally am glad with the Shiite stances that are opposite to our stance. What is the problem in that? Let them oppose, criticize and take a different position without resorting to cursing, and there would be no problem in that. On the contrary, this is helpful because it means that the conflict is not a Sunni-Shiite conflict as there are Shiites and Sunnites in this side and Sunnites and Shiites in the other side – as what we used to say when talking about March 14 and March 8 Blocs.

Well lately things went far enough to resorting to false data – if I am to have good opinion, I will say wrong data and if I am to think ill at the time of ill-thinking, I will say false data.

What took place in Qusair is that some men got excited and from their own mind ascended one of the mosques of the city of Qusair and put a black banner with the word; O Hussein. Now whether this is right or wrong is another point. This was viewed on websites and broadcasted by Al Arabiya and Al Jazira – these two channels which believe they are respectful and important political channels – besides other Arab satellites and websites. Now how did they report this piece of news? They said that men from Hezbollah ascended the minaret of the mosque – claiming that this mosque is the Mosque of Caliph Omar Bin Al Khattab – and raised on it the banner of Al Hussein. For a week until yesterday – I don't know if today too – they interviewed scholars, muftis, and personalities who said what they had to say: Qusair is being announced a Shiite city! O Islam! O people of Sunna and Jamaa'… Is this a rational conduct! Suppose that the story is true. Is this a rational conduct or a responsible conduct? Shiite and Sunni Muslims are found all around the Globe and not only in the Islamic world. Do we instigate them in such a way? If this is true, they must say that this is a condemned, wrong conduct, and let them condemn us too. Why do you present the issue as a Shiite-Sunni issue?

Notice that this piece of information is false and not only wrong. Today, the brethrens in the media relations will circulate a CD on media outlets. I hope that the media outlets will deal with this issue seriously. Sorry for going into details but for a week long, the most important Arab satellites have been exploiting this issue to cause instigations. In the city of Qusair, there is a number of Mosques. These stupid people do not know that in Qusair there are Shiites – Syrian Shiites. They are natives since tens or hundreds of years. They have a neighborhood, houses and a mosque. This mosque was built ten years ago. The name of the Mosque is Hassan Al Mujtaba (Peace be upon him). A sheikh leads collective prayers in that mosque. Well some young men – whether that is right or wrong – ascended the minaret and hang that banner on top of the minaret of the Mosque of Imam Hassan Mujtaba (Peace be upon him). As for the Mosque of Caliph Omar Bin Al Khattab, it is several kilometers away from this mosque. No one approached this mosque or ascended its minaret, and no one raised a banner there. The CD which will be distributed is from the city of Qusair. It shows the minaret with the banner and the Mosque of Imam Hassan Mujtaba (Peace be upon him) and the Mosque of Caliph Omar Bin Al Khattab. It shows the structure of the minaret of this mosque and the structure of the minaret of that mosque. We reached a state in which we are to handle such details! However, we are obliged to handle these details. Why? That's because through these details a factional war is being made in the region. This is falsehood. This is fabrication. Moreover, is Imam Hussein (Peace be upon him) the Imam of Shiites only? Imam Hussein (Peace be upon him) is for all Muslims.

The worst thing is that people go for sectarianism in such a way and that the most important Arab satellites exploit it claiming they are objectively presenting one viewpoint and the other viewpoint. If you want to know more, what are you to know? You know lies, misleading, and fabrications. This is what is taking place.

Here I add saying – as I do in every clause I list – that if anyone believes that by presenting the battle as sectarian or factional or that through fabrications, lies, falsehood, and through threats of takfir and killing we will change our mind, we will not change our mind. Now the post Qusair era is similar to the pre-Qusair era according to us. Nothing changed. Did the project change? Is the scene understood in a different way? Did convictions in the targets of the project change? Has the given changed? On the contrary, the other project is showing more insistence on getting along and developing the confrontation. We will be where we are supposed to be. We will resume assuming the responsibility which we assumed, and we don't need to go more into details.

Well in this framework, there are Islamic forces and Islamic parties which are contacting us and offering us ideas and initiatives. Here I am telling you, we are open to any discussion on the stance in Syria. However in the past couple of days some ideas and initiatives were made. I can't comment on them now because that needs further discussion with the leadership of Hezbollah. However, at this moment, the scene is still the very scene, the evaluation is the very evaluation; the vision is the very vision; the understanding is the very understanding; and the stance is the very stance. As for details, that comes pursuant to the needs of the field.

We are all living a decisive, critical historic stage in which everyone assumes responsibility and bears the consequences of this responsibility. We ask Allah to grant us a good ending in our religion, in this world, and in the Hereafter.

Finally, I salute again with utmost esteem, respect and reverence all our dear injured brothers and sisters.

I must also express your and my felicitations today to His Eminence Sayyed Khamenai (May long he lives) and to the dear Iranian people for this great extraordinary democratic festival which is unprecedented in the third world. This high public turnout which was reported by foreign news agencies since the early morning has exceeded all expectations. As His Eminence the leader (May Allah guard him) said every vote in the ballot boxes today is a renovation and a new expression of trust in the regime of the Islamic Republic in Iran which some want to label it an enemy or fight or present as an enemy for Arabs and Muslims while forgetting Israel, Al Qods, the US project….

Today Iran is presenting for everyone and especially for the Islamic world an example in popular participation, presence, and elections. Imagine this scene that took place today. The Leader, the Wali Al Faqih – this is to those who do not know the powers of the Wali Al Faqih and view that some Arab kings, princes or presidents have hundreds more powers – made one vote just as any Iranian peasant or Iranian Muslim or Christian or Armenian, or Sunni, or Persian, or Arab, or Kurd, or Turkmen. Like them, he made just one vote in the elections that will decide the president of the republic – the head of the executive power who has very vast powers in Iran.

We hope these democratic popular festivals prevail in all our countries in the Arab and Islamic world. I salute the injured on their day again. Peace be upon you and Allah's mercy and blessings.

Ron Paul and M K Bhadrakumar both believe that this is Obama's "Monica moment"

According to Ron Paul and M K Bhadrakumar all this nonsense about chemical weapons in Syria has nothing to do with Syria, but it is simply about the creation of a distraction away from Obama's internal problems (Ron Paul here;  M K Bhadrakumar here).  Unsuprisingly, Russia has categorically rejected the chemical weapons claim, the arming of the rebels or the possible imposition of an illegal no-fly zone:


It certainaly appears to me like this is yet another all-American "CF-CYA" in the making.

The Saker

Former French FM Dumas: Britain prepared for war in Syria two years before the crisis flared up

Former French Foreign Minister Roland Dumas said that Britain had been preparing gunmen to invade Syria two years before the crisis there flared up in 2011.

During a TV show, Dumas said ''I was in Britain two years ago, and I met British officials, some my friends…they admitted that they were up to something in Syria.''

''They even asked me to join them in my capacity as a foreign minister, but I declined,'' he added.

He indicated that the plan of striking Syria had been prepared in advance long before the 2011 events, adding that the goal was to overthrow the Syrian government that considers Israel an enemy.

Transcript and video of the interview (in French) :
Roland Dumas : les Anglais préparaient la guerre en Syrie deux ans avant les manifestations en 2011

Nouvelles de France, 14 Juin 2013

« J’ai été il y a deux avant, à peu près, avant que les hostilités commencent en Syrie, je me trouvais en Angleterre par hasard (…) J’ai rencontré des responsables anglais et quelques -uns qui sont mes amis m’ont avoué, en me sollicitant, qu’il se préparait quelque chose en Syrie. L’Angleterre préparait l’invasion des rebelles en Syrie. Et on m’a même demandé à moi, sous prétexte que j’étais ancien ministre des affaires étrangères, si je participerais comme ça à cette…j’ai évidemment dit le contraire, je suis Français, ça ne m’intéresse pas. C’est pour dire que cette opération vient de très loin, elle a été préparée, conçue, organisée (…) dans le but très simple de destituer le gouvernement syrien, car dans la région il est important de savoir que ce régime syrien a des propos anti-israélien et que par conséquent tout ce qui bouge dans la région autour…Moi j’ai la confidence du premier ministre israélien (…) qui m’avait dit : on essaiera de s’entendre avec le premier ministre et avec les Etats autour et ceux qui ne s’entendront pas on les abattra. C’est une politique. C’est une conception de l’histoire, pourquoi pas après tout, mais il faut le savoir. »

What could a sustained air campaign by the US/NATO/CENTCOM supported by numerous cruise missile strikes really achieve in Syria?

For many months now I have been warning that what is happening in Syria is really what I call "Bosnia v5, Chechnia v4, Kosovo, v3 Libya v2, Syria v1" and, indeed, the basic Anglo strategy is exactly the same one: destabilize a country by using real popular grievances, trigger civil unrest, fan the violence, escalate the clashes into an insurgency, then carefully orchestrate some kind of "humanitarian" pretext to bypass the UNSC and intervene militarily.  Remember how the Iraqis were allegedly tossing Kuwaiti babies out of their incubators?  How the Serbs lobbed mortar rounds (in an physically impossible trajectory) into the Markale market in Sarajevo?  Remember the Srebrenica genocide?  The Racak massacre?  How the Serbian "Chetniks" used "rape as a weapon of ethnic cleansing" (even though their enemy was of the same ethnicity)?  Do you remember how Gaddafi gave Viagra and condoms to his soldiers?  How Saddam could launch chemical warheads at the UK in 45 minutes?  Ok, it appears that now Assad has used chemical weapons against the FSA.  Nevermind that this narrative categorically contradicts even a superficial attempt at understanding what is going on in Syria by using common sense.  Hey - if Anglo politicians say its true, then you can take it to the bank.  After all, we all know that Anglo politicians never lie, don't we?

Anyway...

Well, it appears that the Anglo Empire is about to engage in some type of military intervention in the war on Syria and this intervention can be articulated around three basic options:

a) sending more weapons to the Takfiris
b) imposing a no-fly zone
c) embarking upon a cruise missile and air strikes campaign

Or, of course, a combination of the above.

I have addressed the first option in a previous post and I will not repeat it all here.  I will just say this: the insurgency has plenty of money and weapons and this entire "we needs weapons" thing is a complete canard.  Even if the US floods the insurgency with the newest anti-tank weapons and MANPADS this will only marginally help them as their real problems are very different: poor training and even worse command, a poorly organized and primitive logistics and support structure, popular opposition to their ideology and a magnificent performance of the Syrian military which very skillfully adapted to a new set of tactics.

Today, I will look at the possible consequences of imposing a no-fly zone and a cruise missile and air strikes attack.  Let's begin by something rather obvious and which is often overlooked by commentators: option b) and option c) are, in reality, one and the same.  What I mean to say is that the US/NATO cannot impose a no-fly zone over Syria without first embarking on a cruise missile and airstrikes campaign.  The notion that the Anglos will somehow "patrol the skies" from high above an only prevent the Syrian Air Force from flying combat missions is absolutely ridiculous.  Even on Bosnia - and God knows the poor Bosian-Serbs never had anything but a totally symbolic air force - the Anglos had to bomb to keep their no-fly zone halfway effective.  Later, in Kosovo (which, in reality, meant in Kosovo, Serbia and Montenegro) the Anglos embarked on a huge, strategic, bombing campaign.  Ditto in Libya, although the latter was a much softer target requiring a much smaller intervention.

So the real question is this: what could a sustained air campaign by the US/NATO/CENTCOM supported by numerous cruise missile strikes really achieve in Syria?

To answer this question we need to look at the official and real purposes of such a campaign.  Officially, of course, the primary goal of such a campaign would be to "protect the civilian population" and prevent the "regime" from using "weapons of mass destruction" against "innocent civilians".  In reality, of course, the goals would be different:

 1) Destroy the Syrian air defense capabilities to be able to safely impose a no-fly zone.
 2) Make the regime pay for its defiance of the Anglo Empire by destroying key government facilities.
3) Weaken the regime by substantially destroying the equipment and key installations of specific military units perceived as "elite" and "pro-regime".
4) Reduce the mobility and Syrian forces on the ground.
5) Disrupt the Syrian military's supply lines
6) Weaken as much as possible the regime's ability to command and control its forces, to communicate with them, to obtain intelligence, etc.
7) Provide close air support to Anglo special forces embedded in the insurgency
last, but not least,
8) make the population pay for its support for Assad.

The last one is, of course, never mentioned, but it is an absolutely crucial goal in the bombing campaign against Serbia, the bombing campaign of Israel against Lebanon and it will be a key objective in any future attack on Syria or Iran: make the civilians pay for their support for the "wrong" regime.

This goal-set need to be evaluated against the actual target list presented by the Syrian government, armed forces and society.

I have found some pretty decent descriptions of the Syrian military's order of battle but, as is often the case, such "static" outlines do not give the real picture.  I will therefore have to make a number of educated guesses.  I will assume that the Syrian military roughly organized along Soviet lines, that the bulk of the Syrian forces have not been put on full-mobilization, that the government has been aware of the threat of a US/NATO attack since at least a year or more, and that the local civil defense and security organizations are already in high gear.  Finally, I will assume that the Syrian military has very carefully studied the Israeli attack on Lebanon in 2006 and that the Syrian high command is in close contact with their Russian and Iranian counterparts.

At this point, I want to get one red herring out of the way: the issue of the Russian S-300 in Syria and their effect on US/NATO plans.  Let us assume that there are already 4 batteries of S-300 in Syria and that each battery can engage 24 targets simultaneously with a probability of kill of .8 (these are all very optimistic assumptions, the real figures are probably closer to 12 targets at .7).  In this case a saturation attack with 50 incoming missiles would be enough to defeat the S-300 (in reality such calculations do not work, the issue is much more complex, but we can use that as a tool just to think about these issues).

Now, I don't know what the cruise missiles stocks of NATO or CENTOM are, but we can be sure that there are enough such missiles to saturate these 4 batteries.  In fact, one Russian general estimated that Syria would need 10-12 S-300 batteries to protect itself.  And keep in mind that there are other options open to CENTCOM to destroy these batteries (such as special forces attacks). If needed, the USAF can bring in bomber from Diego Garcia, B-2 bombers from the USA, submarine based cruise missiles, etc.  You can think of CENTCOM as "NATO 2" because it was originally designed to stop a Soviet invasion of Iran (I know - stupid idea, but that was the fear in those days) and it only got more powerful over the past decades.  The combined might of CENTCOM plus NATO is absolutely immense and the notion that just a few Russian air-defense systems - even very good ones - could defeat it is ludicrous.  Yes, the S-300 is a superb system, yes it is better than the US Patriot, yes the Anglos do fear them, but no - it will never stop them.

I think that we should assume that NATO/CENTCOM will be able greatly degrade the Syrian air defenses and that they will also be to establish air superiority over the entire Syrian territory.  How long this will take them will depend on many factors, not least the skills and determination of the Syrian military, but the inevitable outcome will not change.  So let's assume that this phase is already over.

At this point nothing will prevent the Anglos to engage in a "shock and awe" kind of campaign similar to what they did in Baghdad in 2003.  The results would also be similar: main ministry buildings will be destroyed, as will most TV stations (which the Anglos consider a legitimate target - see the case in Belgrade), most Mukhabarat (the various security and intelligence services) headquarters will be blown up, as will communication nodes, radar installations, bridges, etc.  A number of military bases will be destroyed along with any equipment stored at that location.  This is also the time when we could expect a GPS-guided missile to hit the Russian embassy in Damascus or a cruise missile to mistakenly explode in the harbor of Tartus.

This is when objectives 1 through 4 above will be practically achieved and CNN & Co. will declare it yet another brilliant victory for the Anglo empire, Obama will go on the air to congratulate the troops for a brilliant performance, and pundits will predict that Assad's regime will shortly collapse.

At this point the key issue is how much all this will affect the balance between the Syrian military and the Takfiri insurgency.  Actually, I am inclined to think that, if anything, this type of campaign could further tilt the blance of power in favor of the Syrian government.  Why?

Well, first and foremost, these types of air campaigns have a very poor record against deployed military forces.  In Kosovo the entire air campaign had a negligible effect on the Serbian army corps deployed in Kosovo (the 2nd Army Corps if I recall correctly).  Air operations in Bosnia were only marginally more effective while Israeli air operations in Lebanon practically failed to affect Hezbollah.  In Iraq the results were more checkered, but that is primarily due to the fact that the inept Iraqi deployment presented an almost ideal target for this kind of assault.

Most combat in Syria happens on a company-battalion level meaning that mobility is not crucial (there are no deep envelopment operations or real "fronts" to breach with heavy concentrations of forces).  Furthermore, most combat in Syria also happens in an urban setting which makes close air support difficult and "blue on blue" incidences of fratricide more likely.  Even locating a target from the air can be very difficult in these circumstances and requires experienced and well trained forward air controllers.

Furthermore, the Syrian forces currently engaged in the battles against the insurgency do no require large amounts of ammunition, petroleum, oil or lubricants and their supply dumps are probably very well camouflaged.  In fact, considering that the Syrian military has probably been seriously preparing for an Israeli invasion for many years, I suspect that that such supply dumps are already pre-positioned throughout the country and that the current counter-insurgency operations have not even come close to seriously depleting them.  Also, if the Syrians have adopted Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah tactics, there are going to be a lot of fake targets scattered all over the country to complicate US planning and assessment efforts.  Finally, an Anglo bombing campaign will probably even further antagonize and infuriate the local population against the US, if only because such air campaign do cause a lot of "collateral damage" in terms of killed and maimed innocent civilians.

And here we have now come to the crucial difference between, on one hand, Bosnia, Kosovo, or Libya and, on the other hand, Syria: it leadership.

In the case of Bosnia and Kosovo it is almost never remembered that Slobodan Milosevic betrayed his Serbian brothers in both territories.  During the war in Bosnia, "Slobo" even imposed sanctions upon the Bosnian-Serbs.  In the case of Kosovo, Milosevic agreed to let NATO occupy Kosovo in exchange for a promise to leave him in power in Belgrade.  The bottom line is this: the Serbs in Bosnia and in Kosovo were betrayed.  Assad and the Alawite officer corps will not betray themselves and those Syrians who were willing to betray their country have already done so a long time ago (remember the series of defections early on in the war?).  In the case of Libya, we had a mentally deranged leader who had build a rather decentralized political system which was used by tribal minorities to overthrow him.  Again, this is not at all what we observe in Syria were the regime is a rather centralized and powerful one.  The point I am trying to make here is really crucial: the Anglo "victories" over the Serbs and Libyan were never military victories, but political victories.  What eventually gave the upper hand to the Anglos is not their military prowess, but their undeniable skills at subverting, deceiving and manipulating.  The Assad regime in Syria has already successfully overcome this stage of the typical Anglo offensive and it has come out of this phase even stronger than before.  At this point in time all the signs are that both the political regime and the Syrian armed forces are determined to fight and resist and that the popular support for the regime is only growing with each passing day.

The point of "shock and awe" is, as it's name clearly shows, to induce a state of, well, shock and awe.  It is to startle, to impress, to induce panic, a sense of futility of any resistance, if you want.  It is very, very hard to be at the receiving end of such a campaign, but Hezbollah has proven that this can be done.  Even the usually clueless Hamas did, to a certain degree, show during the Israeli attacks on Gaza that it could overcome this initial moment of panic.  And so once the "shock and awe" phase has failed to produce any signs of shock or of awe - what happens next?

Then the ugly and difficult business of warfare truly takes over and here the Anglo options are very limited:  neither the US nor NATO are actually going to put "boots on the ground" as this would only serve to truly turn this civil war into a war of national liberation.  Any such move will finish off an already completely disunited opposition.  Then,  US boots on the ground in Syria will trigger an immediate influx of Hezbollah fighters all too happy to realize their long held dream to make minced meat of as many Yankees as possible.  Furthermore, can you actually imagine US Marines and al-Nusra combatants fighting side by side?  Then, to even make things worse, an Anglo invasion of Syria might well trigger an influx of Shia volunteers from Iran, Iraq and Lebanon; that would also offer Iran the perfect opportunity to "send in volunteers" (remember that the students who took over the US embassy in Tehran were also 'volunteer civilian students' and that the revolutionary government denied having any control over them).  No matter how stupid, ill-informed or delusional US politicians are, I cannot imagine the Joint Chiefs ever agreeing to such a lunacy.

What about the option of not sending boots on the ground, but of a sustained campaign to support the Takfiri insurgency?  It might appear as a viable option until you consider the following: the fact that the US or NATO cannot send troops in hardly means that the Iranians, the Iraqis or Hezbollah could not do that.  In fact, what could the US do if, say, Moqtada al-Sadr decided to send some of his followers to fight the Takfiris in Syria?  Protest and threaten, but there is really nothing much else they could do (short of re-invading Iraq?)

This is the huge weakness in the US/NATO posture: while the US/NATO/CENTCOM capabilities to engage in a massive bombing and cruise missile strikes are truly formidable, they have nothing else to follow up with.   Everybody in the Middle-East knows that the Americans do not have what it takes to go tow-to-toe against an insurgency.  These are the folks who used B-2 stealth bombers over Afghanistan but who a full decade later failed to even control most of Kabul in daytime.  This is why Khamid Karzai, even in his best days, was not called "President of Afghanistan" by his opponents but "Major of Kabul".

The Americans and the Europeans are just like the Israelis: they are masters at remote, electronic warfare and but they simply do not have what it takes to get down into the dirty business of close contact warfare.  Their tactics work against unprincipled traitors (Milosevic), arrogant imbeciles (Saddam and Gaddafi) but not against a smart and determined resistance (Taliban, Hezbollah).  And all the signs are that the Syrians are both very smart and very determined.  That they will not break down under a "shock and awe" campaign, and that just like Hezbollan or the Taliban, they are quite willing to fight for as long as it takes to resist the foreign occupation of their country.  In other words, achieving objectives 5-7 will not be possible as long as the Syrians hold their ground.  All the signs are that they will.

Which leaves only option 8: make the Syrian people pay for their support for the "wrong" regime.  Unfortunately, this is an objective which the Anglos will be able to achieve, just as the Israelis did on Lebanon and Gaza.  Of course, this will not win the hearts and minds of this population, but it will make the Anglos feel good about themselves - "we kicked the butts of these sand niggers" and it will send a strong and clear message to the rest of the planet: submit and obey, or else "we will bomb you to the stone age" to use Secretary Baker's threat to Tarek Aziz.  The Anglos have a long and distinguished history of making the civilians pay for the "wrong" political choices: from the bombings of Dresden and Hiroshima, to the crippling sanctions against Iran and Iraq, to the subversion of Cuba, Nicaragua, San Salvador and Venezuela, to the bombings of Serbia and Montenegro, to the comprehensive deconstruction of the Iraqi and Libyan polities, to the wrecking of the Afghan and Pakistani societies: the same "solution" has been used by the Anglo Empire over and over again.   The beauty of this option, at least in the eyes of the Anglos, is that it can either lead to "victory" (Serbia, Libya) or the possibility to "declare victory and leave" (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan), another old US military tradition.

So this is really what this is all about: not turning the tide of the civil war, but making the Syrians pay for their defiance of the New World Order.  Is this goal really worth the many risks involved?  I personally don't think so, but I don't get to vote.

The best we can hope for now is a totally symbolic "mini" cruise missile attack against some Syrian "chemical weapons factory".  Not against a storage area, of course, since that would risk releasing the toxic gases.  So maybe the US can strike an pharmaceutical plant, like they did in al-Shifa in Sudan and declare it a great achievement.  I am personally encouraged by the fact that the Americans are speaking about a "limited use of chemical weapons" because if the fictional chemical weapons use was "limited" then so might therefore also be the "just retaliation", no?

One more thing: the notion that the Russians could somehow protect Syria or meaningfully oppose US/NATO plans is laughable.  The Russian Navy presence in the Mediterranean is entirely symbolic and Russia has no other assets in the Middle-East which it could use to engage the Anglos.  To understand Russian policies in the Middle-East and the conflict in Syria it is absolutely crucial to always remember that Russia is acting from a position of great weakness.  It will take decades for Russia to be able to establish a more than symbolic Navy presence in the Mediterranean.  The first step towards that goal would be to rebuilt the aging Black Sea Fleet which currently is only a shadow of its former self.  Again, the Russian Navy's presence off the coast of Syria is an important factor, but only as a symbol of Russia's determination to stand up for the rule of law in international affairs and a sign of solidarity with the Syrian people.  Symbols are important, and this is an important symbol, but symbols are still only that - symbols.  Those who fantasize about the Russian Navy "scaring away" the US Navy from Syria simply do not understand naval (or any other type of) warfare.

The Saker

Putin talks NSA, Syria, Iran, drones in RT interview (FULL VIDEO)

Russian and Chechen activists stand side by side to denounce the murder of Ibragim Todashev by the FBI

Today I am posting the video of a most interesting press conference which took place in Moscow and which was made possible thanks to the support of the Russian news agency RIA-Novosti.  This press conference brought together the father of Ibragim Todashev (murdered by FBI agents in Orlando), Abdulbaki Todashev, Saurbek Sadakhanov, a Chechen lawyer, and Kheda Saratova, an independent Chechen researcher.  The main organizer of this press-conference was Maksim Shevchenko, a well-known Russian Orthodox activist and journalist. 

I am very sorry that I do not have a subtitled or translated version of this press conference, and I apologize for the fact that I simply do not have the time do such a translation by myself.  I will, however, summarize the main thesis mentioned by the participants to this press-conference: Chechens in the USA are now treated as terrorists simply for being Chechens.  Ibragim Todashev, in particular, had absolutely nothing to do with the Boston Bombing.  His only "crime" was that a) he was a Chechen b) he was a Muslim c) he spoke to the Tsarnaev brothers when he met them.

All the participants agree that Ibragim Todashev was murdered with even a "control shot" fired at the back of his head.

What is most interesting is that even though the 2nd Chechen war is only 10 years away from us, Russians and Chechens are really now standing side by side against a common enemy.  The main organizer of this event, Maksim Shevchenko, is a very well known Russian Orthodox activist, a person very well known for his anti-liberal (i.e. anti-Western) views.  He is also one of the most pro-Muslim Russian activists in Russia who is even often accused of being a "hidden Muslim" himself for his pro-Muslim views.  This is, of course, utter nonsense.  Shevchenko is 100% Orthodox in his religious views, but that does not prevent him from strongly believing that traditional Islam is a natural ally of Russia in its struggle to main its national identity.

What is currently happening in Russia is this: Russian Orthodox Christians and Chechen Muslims are joining forces against the forces which have tried so hard to  oppose them against each other.

Seeing Russians and Chechens patriots standing side by side me a great deal of consolation and hope.

The Saker

Syria - Israel Is Losing the Battle

By Gilad Atzmon for Information Clearing House
  
In the last week we have been following British and French’s desperate attempts to push for a military intervention in Syria. It is far from being a secret that both British and French government are dominated by the Jewish Lobby. In Britain it is the ultra Zionist CFI (Conservative Friends of Israel) - apparently 80% of Britain’s conservative MPs are members of the pro Israeli Lobby. In France the situation is even more devastating, the entire political system is hijacked by the forceful CRIF.

But in case anyone fails to grasp why the Jewish Lobby is pushing for an immediate intervention, Debka, an Israeli news outlet provides the answer. Seemingly, the Syrian army is winning on all fronts. Israel’s military and geo-political calculations are proved to be wrong.

According to Debka, “the battle for Damascus is over”. The Syrian army had virtually “regained control of the city in an epic victory”. The rebels, largely mercenaries, have lost the battle they “can’t do much more than fire sporadically. They can no longer launch raids, or pose threats to the city centre, the airport or the big Syrian air base nearby. The Russian and Iranian transports constantly bringing replenishments for keeping the Syrian army fighting can again land at Damascus airport after months of rebel siege.”

But it isn’t just the capital. Debka reports that “Hezbollah and Syrian units have tightened their siege on the rebels holding out in the northern sector of al Qusayr; other (Syrian army) units have completed their takeover of the countryside around the town of Hama; and a third combined Syrian-Hizballah force has taken up positions around Aleppo.”

Debka maintains that senior IDF officers criticized the Israeli defense minister (Moshe Ya'alon) who “mislead” the Knesset a few days ago estimating that “Bashar Assad controlled only 40% of Syrian territory.” Debka suggests that Israeli defense Minister drawn on a “flawed intelligence assessment and were concerned that the armed forces were acting on the basis of inaccurate intelligence.” Debka stresses, “erroneous assessments… must lead to faulty decision-making.”

Debka is clearly brave enough to admit that Israeli military miscalculations may have lead to disastrous consequences. It reports, “the massive Israeli bombardment of Iranian weapons stored near Damascus for Hezbollah, turned out a month later to have done more harm than good. It gave Bashar Assad a boost instead of weakening his resolve.”

Debka is obviously correct. It doesn’t take a genius to predict that an Israeli attack on an Arab land cannot be accepted by the Arab masses, not even by Assad’s bitterest Arab opponents.

Debka maintains that the “intelligence focus on military movements in Syria especially around Damascus to ascertain that advanced missiles and chemical weapons don’t reach Hezbollah laid to a failure of in detecting major movement by Hezbollah militia units towards the Syrian-Israeli border.”

Israel is now facing a new reality. It is facing Hezbollah reinforcements streaming in from Lebanon towards the Golan heights and its border with Syria.

Israel, Debka concludes, will soon find itself “face to face for the first time with Hezbollah units equipped with heavy arms and missiles on the move along the Syrian-Israeli border and manning positions opposite Israel’s Golan outposts and villages.”

Debka is correct to suggest that instead of “growing weaker, Iran’s Lebanese proxy is poised to open another warfront and force the IDF to adapt to a new military challenge from the Syrian Golan.”

Rather than The Gurdian or the Le Monde, it is actually the Israeli Debka that helps us to grasp why Britain and France are so desperate to intervene. Once again, it is a Zionist war which they are so eager to fight.

Sadly enough, it isn’t The Guardian or The New York Times that is there to reveal the latest development in Syria and expose Israeli lethal miscalculations. It is actually a ‘Zionist’ Israeli patriotic outlet that is providing the good. I actually believe that this form of harsh self-criticism that is embedded in Israeli culture, is the means that sustains Israeli regional hegemony, at least monetarily. This ability to critically examine and disapprove your own leadership is something I fail to encounter in Western media. Seemingly, the media in Israel is far more tolerant toward criticism than the Zionist dominated Media in the West.

Gilad Atzmon’s latest book is: The Wandering Who? A Study of Jewish Identity Politics - http://www.gilad.co.uk/

Meet the 'Friends of Jihad'

By Pepe Escobar for the Asia Times

Western politicos love to shed swamps of crocodile tears about "the Syrian people" and congratulate themselves within the "Friends of Syria" framework for defending them from "tyranny".
Well, the "Syrian people" have spoken. Roughly 70% support the government of Bashar al-Assad. Another 20% are neutral. And only 10% are aligned with the Western-supported "rebels", including those of the kidnapping, lung-eating, beheading jihadi kind.

The data was provided mostly by independent relief organizations working in Syria. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) received a detailed report in late May - but, predictably, was not too keen on releasing it.

As Asia Times Online has been stressing for months, the Sunni business classes in Damascus and Aleppo are either neutral or pro-Assad. And most Sunnis now regard the gangs of foreign mercenaries weaponized by Qatar and the House of Saud as way more repellent than Assad.

Meanwhile, in Britain - where David of Arabia Cameron remains gung ho on a no-fly zone to protect the "Syrian people" - only 24% of Britons are in favor of further weaponizing the "rebels" (although 58% support humanitarian aid).

And at a rally in Doha, perennial al-Jazeera star and Muslim Brotherhood icon Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi - now pontificating at Al-Azhar in Cairo - has called for a jihad of all Sunni Muslims against Damascus. As he also branded Hezbollah as "the party of Satan" and condemned Iran for "pushing forward arms and men to back the Syrian regime". He has in fact condoned a jihad of Muslims against Muslims, even though he insisted his call to fight Hezbollah is "not against all Shi'ites".

Still al-Qaradawi also said, "How could 100 million Shi'ites defeat 1.7 billion [Sunnis]?" Only because [Sunni] Muslims are weak". It's more than implied that Shi'ites are the enemy.

So who cares what the "Syrian people" might think? The Western "Friends of Syria" could not have found a more willing golden patsy to promote their usual, self-fulfilling Divide and Rule gambit - the Sunni-Shi'ite divide. It's always handy to have dysfunctional GCC petro-monarchies posing as "liberators" so the West once again may conduct a proxy war "leading from behind".

In other news, where's Evelyn Waugh when you need him? It's Scoop all over again, with Syria replacing a "promising" war in the African Republic of Ishmaelia and every hack in the Western world doing a remix of the Daily Beast, proclaiming Assad's imminent demise because, well, we're with the rebels and we have decided they are going to win.

Those infidel missiles

As it stands, the Geneva II negotiations promoted by Washington and Moscow seem to be as good as six feet under (although they are getting together today to define the framework).

The European Union has lifted its arms embargo on Syria - a move that was essentially a Franco-British delirium that went over the heads of reluctant EU members. It had to be Britain and France, of course, the two former imperial powers that almost a century ago carved up a line in the sand dividing the Levant and now want a redesign.

This would mean, in practice, that the EU has declared war on Damascus. Well, sort of. Under the EU agreement, no weaponizing will go on before autumn. And the belligerent Franco-British duo has to make sure any weapons are used only to protect civilians. Who will supervise this - a bunch of Brussels bureaucrats in army fatigues? Well, they can always revert to default - ask for American help. Every grain of sand in the Levant knows the CIA is "assisting" Qatar and Saudi Arabia to weaponize the "rebels".

And then there's the distinct possibility that Britain may have acted, once again, as an American Fifth Column inside the EU, paving the road for a possible Obama administration "all options are on the table" intervention.

Russian President Vladimir Putin checkmated the EU - and the US - in no time. Yes, those famous S-300 missile systems are coming to Damascus, and soon. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the missiles were a stabilizing factor in Syria that would dissuade schemes by "hotheads". He also stressed - correctly - that the EU may just have bombed the planned Geneva talks.

Former Russian Air Force General Anatoliy Kornukov told Interfax-AVN Online that Damascus would need at least 10 battalions of S-300 air defense missile systems to fully protect its territory from a possible NATO attack. [1] In this case, there's no way a no-fly zone - a Franco-British wet dream - can be imposed.

Each S-300 surface-to-air missile system consists of a radar-equipped command post and up to six 5Zh15 missiles. It would take only a month to train Syrians to operate them. Kornukov observed, "Our systems can be deployed within five minutes." And they're almost impossible to jam.

What are the "Friends of Syria" going to do about that? Call another meeting? Time for al-Qaradawi to go on al-Jazeera and upgrade his jihad to include Russian missiles (after all these are infidel weapons). Why not set an example and volunteer himself to the front line?

Note:
1. See here.
Pepe Escobar is the author of Globalistan: How the Globalized World is Dissolving into Liquid War (Nimble Books, 2007) and Red Zone Blues: a snapshot of Baghdad during the surge. He also wrote Obama does Globalistan (Nimble Books, 2009). He may be reached at pepeasia@yahoo.com.

Two important news items about Syria

I the past hour I have received two important and long awaited good news about the war in Syria:

1) al-Qusayr has been fully liberated by the government force,  this is official and confirmed by the BBC.

2) Some Russian S-300 are already in Syria.  This is, of course, not official at all, but I have it from a source I personally trust and who got it from a reliable person "with access".

Two points on the 2nd item:  first, it remains unclear how many S-300 batteries are in Syria and, second, those who are currently in Syria remain under Russian control who have "conditioned their use or total control by Syria if and when a major or all out attack on Syria by Israel or Nato".

I can see the logic for that: it would be to tell the Israelis "we (the Russians) control these missiles for the time being, so your airspace is not in danger (taking away one key Israeli excuse to attack Syria), but if you attack Syria, then we will hand them over the full system and you are on your own".   If my guess is correct, then this is a very slick tactic as it minimizes the incentives for anybody to attack Syria, but it also maximizes the deterrent effect of these systems.

Again, this is my personal speculation based on totally unofficial information passed to my by a personal contact.

Caveat emptor!

The Saker

Syria claims sarin seizure at rebel hideout as Russia ‘blocks’ UN's Qusair resolution

RT reports:

Forces of Syrian President Bashar al Assad are seen on a tank in Arjoun village near Qusair town May 30, 2013. 

The Syrian Army has seized two containers with poisonous sarin agent in a rebel hideout, SANA said citing sources. Meanwhile, Russia reportedly blocked the UNSC resolution set to slam Damascus’ offensive on the town of Qusair held by opposition forces.

Syrian Arab News Agency reports that sarin, together with automatic rifles, pistols and homemade bombs (IEDs) was seized in the Faraieh neighborhood of the city of Hama.

Sarin (or GB) is an extremely toxic, though colorless and odorless, substance that disrupts the nervous system, over-stimulating muscles and vital organs, if it comes into contact with skin. This potentially extremely harmful nerve agent was originally invented and manufactured to be used as a chemical weapon. According to UN Resolution 687, Sarin is classified as a weapon of mass destruction.

The threat of chemical weapons deployment in Syria has become a major international concern, with American President Barack Obama even saying previously that the use of chemical arsenal by the Syrian government would be a “red line” and might precipitate a foreign military intervention.

However, in early May an independent UN commission came to the conclusion that Syrian rebels had used sarin nerve gas, while allegations of its use by the government have not yet received any official confirmation.

Russia 'blocks' another UNSC resolution on Syria
On Saturday a UN Security Council (UNSC) assembly failed to adopt a British-drafted resolution on the situation in Qusair, which the Syrian Army has blockaded and is said to be eliminating a large group of opposition forces that occupied the town several weeks ago.


A handout picture released by the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) on May 30, 2013, shows Syrian army soldiers walking nearby facilities of Dabaa military airfield during an operation that led to the control of the airport, north of the Syrian city of Qusayr. 

Rebels besieged in Qusair are pleading for military help. They claim that many civilians have been wounded in the assault of the government forces and that these people are in desperate need of medical attention.

The Syrian foreign minister says the country will allow the Red Cross into Qusair "as soon as military operations are over," he is cited by Syrian State Television.

The UK-drafted UN statement obtained by Reuters claims that Assad's government must “allow immediate, full and unimpeded access to impartial humanitarian actors, including UN agencies, to reach civilians trapped in Qusair.”

According to Reuters’ sources in the Security Council, Russia blocked the resolution during private discussions on Saturday, explaining that the UNSC had made no statement when the rebels came to Qusair in force and seized the town.

It is “not advisable to speak out as the UN Security Council didn't when Qusair was taken by the opposition,” a Russia diplomat reportedly said in the UNSC.

So far Russia has officially vetoed three resolutions on Syria in the UNSC saying they were "unbalanced" targeting Assad's government while sending weak to no message to the opposition fighters.


An empty ammunition casing and a fire are seen in a field after heavy fighting between Free Syrian Army fighters, and the forces of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Lebanon's Hezbollah at the al Barak area near Qusair town May 31, 2013.

Earlier this week the UN Human Rights Council passed a resolution on the worsening human rights situation in Syria and in particular in connection with battle for Qusair.

The document puts the blame for Qusair violence solely on Damascus troops and condemns the involvement of “foreign combatants” fighting on the side of the Syrian government.

The Russian Foreign Ministry pointed out that the resolution deliberately ignore numerous human rights violations and abuses of Qusair civilians committed by armed foreign jihadists, some of whom have links to Al-Qaeda.

The “foreign combatants” mentioned in the resolution are fighters of the previously neutral Hezbollah group which have joined Syrian military in the offensive on Qusair, overturning the balance in the stand-off to the opposition’s disadvantage.

The Syrian opposition has even threatened not to attend the peace conference in Geneva that is being prepared by Russia and the US for July because of Hezbollah’s involvement.

The ongoing siege of Qusair has raged for two weeks now. On Saturday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stated that he is “following with the gravest concern” the situation in Qusair. He reminded the government of Bashar Assad of its responsibility to protect civilians on the Syrian territory, including those threatened by militants, and urged to allow thousands of Qusair residents to flee the town.


A partial view of the city of Qusayr, in Syria's central Homs province, as the Syrian army forces battle opposition fighters, on May 25, 2013.

In another statement issued on Saturday the UN Humanitarian Chief Valerie Amos and the UN Human Rights Head Navi Pillay maintained that there are as many as 1,500 injured people in Qusair who need immediate evacuation for emergency medical treatment.

UN officials said that if the information they are receiving is correct, “the general situation in Qusair is desperate.”

“We urge the parties to agree to an immediate ceasefire to allow humanitarian agencies to evacuate the wounded and provide life-saving treatment and supplies,” Amos and Pillay said in their statement.

Qusair, with an original population of 30,000, is less than 10 km from the Lebanese border and some 25 km from the city of Homs.

In the meantime there have been reports of intensifying clashes between the rebel Free Syrian Army (FSA) and Assad’s forces near Aleppo. Allegedly, the troops have captured Mount Shuwaihinah, a dominating point in the area.

FSA brigades are reportedly calling for reinforcements to be sent in from other areas.

"CF->CYA" - the magic formula of the Empire of Illusions

Well, it sure looks like the United States of Amnesia have rapidly recovered from the use of a so-called "weapon of mass destruction" (a pressure cooked) in Boston and has turned to more important topics like Angelina Jolie's breasts.

And yet, the official narrative is being challenged by so many facts that it is really worth at taking a short look at it.

There was already the Hollywood-like one billion dollar per day lockdown of Boston which managed not to find a severely wounded and bleeding teenager which, as soon as the neighborhood he was in was declared "checked", was found by a private citizen. There was the photos of the naked but otherwise totally healthy Tamerlan Tsarnaev formally recognized by his mother which were shot in the exact location which the cops were searching and which were dismissed by the FBI as "coincidence".  Instead, the cops declared that Tamerlan had been shot and run over by, no, not by cops, but by his younger brother Dzhokhar.  There was the "yes, the Russians did warn us "zig" followed by the "but they gave us no actionable intelligence "zag" episode.  Then, after the eventual capture of the young Dzhokhar, there was the "he has confessed" statement by the FBI contradicted by Dzhokhar's parents ("he cannot speak, how can he confess?!").

Then the action shifted to Orlando, Florida, where a friend of the Tsarnaev brothers - Ibragim Todashev - who, after being interrogated by 4 armed FBI agents suddenly attacked them with his bare hands and got shot six times, including one bullet in the back of his head.  Unsurprisingly, his father now claims that he son was executed.

In the meantime, the two FBI agents who arrested Tsarnaev were taken by helicopter 12 miles off the US coast were they both "fell out" of the FBI helicopter and died.  Later, official sources denied that these two special agents had participated in the Tsarnaev arrest.  (They did not explain what exactly the FBI special agents were doing right on the limit of the US territorial waters though or how they "fell out"...).

Still, bad luck seems to strike "arresting" agents of the US government.  Remember how 22 of the 23 members of the SEAL team who "killed" Bin Laden then all died in a helicopter accident in Afghanistan? That would leave one alive?  Nope - Nicolas D. Checque died in combat December 2012, also in Afghanistan.  That is 23/23.

Ok, some of the info above might be false, based on rumors, uncorroborated or outright fabricated.  That is the problem when everything is classified "secret" - it does not leave the general public many means to find out the truth other than, of course, simply accepting the official narrative.

As for Uncle Shmuel and his hyper-subservient corporate media, they simply deny it all, but without giving any substantiation to their denials.

Take the (immediately forgotten) case of the "lost nuclear warheads and series of  mysterious deaths in the USAF".  Or the most convenient death of the most inconvenient WTC7 witness, Barry Jennings.  I won't even go into the Kennedy assassinations.

Personally, and unlike in the case of the 9/11 events which were clearly the result of an 'inside job" and  controlled demolitions, I don't necessarily see a big conspiracy in the Boston bombings case.  This looks to me like an all-American specialty: a "CF" (clusterf**ck) followed by a desperate attempt to "CYA" (cover your *ss).  In the case of the SEAL team which supposedly killed Bin Laden, this looks more suspicious to me, if only because I am convinced that OBL died in 2004 (several Russian officials - including the very well-informed head of the State Duma's international affairs committee, Sergei Pushkov,  - have confirmed this).  And yet it looks that something or somebody was involved in a firefight in Abbottabad.  Probably not OBL himself, but somebody did return fire and was killed.  And the assault team did make a determined effort to clean up the place from key evidence before leaving the place.  So something happened that night, and all (most?) the key witnesses are dead.  Maybe just to protect them from retaliation, but maybe not.  I don't know.

The same "CF->CYA" model is now being implemented in preparation of the (very partial) US withdrawal from Afghanistan.  If that topic interests you, I highly recommend the superb documentary "This Is What Winning Looks Like" in three parts on Youtube.

None of this is very surprising, really, the USA has truly become an "Empire of Illusions" (to borrow Chris Hedges excellent expression).  Or think of recent Presidents: if beyond any doubt the Presidency of Baby Bush could be summarized as a massive "CF", is Obama's presidency an endless exercise in "CYA"?

Now think of the situation in Syria?  Remember how, two years ago, Uncle Shmuel have Assad just a couple of month?  And then how all the Takfiri crazies from Libya naturally moved from "conquered" Libya into Mali and, mostly, Syria.  And now that the situation looks really dangerous, Kerry is coming to Moscow with a contrite smile on his face, and speaks about the Geneva Accords while the insurgency, the EU and Congress want nothing to do with any peace conference at all.  What is this if not a grand "CF->CYA" operation?

This "CF->CYA" is literally all over the policies of Uncle Shmuel and his corporate nightmare.  Nothing works out as planned and, just as a person stuck in quicksands, each effort to "CYA" only makes the situation worse and worse and worse and worse again.

This model really extends far beyond the borders of the USA, it also is the key formula to understand the policies of the USA's western colonies (aka "Europe).  There is, of course, the iconic example of Mr. Hollande, the most incompetent, passive or, to use a most appropriate expression, flaccid French President ever.  I have no idea where they found this guy, but I don't think I have ever seen somebody so comprehensively clueless at the helm of a country with a 1'500 year old history and nuclear weapons.  And what does Mr. Hollande do with this time?  Yup, "CF-CYA" of course!  And its not only him.  It is the entire EU which looks like The Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight.  Having "successfully" mugged Cyprus, they are now seriously considering using the same trick elsewhere in the EU.

This would all be funny if it did not spread death and chaos all over the planet.  For an Empire fully centered on illusions, consequences on the ground really don't matter.  As long as CNN says it is a success, it is a success.  The illusion becomes the goal.  And as long as the consequences of these illusions are not shown on TV, they do not really exist.  Simple and neat.

Orwell would be proud.

The Saker