Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Ukraine SITREP April 15, 10:54 EST (a sharp turn for the worse)

The situation in the Ukraine has taken a very sharp turn for the worse.
  • Two Presidential candidates from the eastern part of the country were assaulted yesterday by Ukie brownshirts.  Mikhail Dobkin got away with only paint and flour thrown at him, but reports say that his bodyguard were hurt.  Oleg Tsarev got severely beaten, however, and barely escaped the Right Sector lynch mob.  No doubt, this will not prevent the "democratic West" from concluding that the elections were free and fair.
  • A mob of Right Sector activists surrounded the Parliament building in Kiev and accused the regime in power of incompetence and indecision in its repression of the eastern Ukraine.  The Right Sector wants weapons do "close down the border with Russia and deal with the insurrection in the East".  After some negotiations they gave the so-called "President" 24 hours to yield to their demands.  Iulia Tymoshenko was so frightened that she apparently declared that the Right Sector might seize power.
  • The "anti-terrorist" operation has now clearly begun.  Several towns and at least one airport in the East have been stormed by pro-regime forces.  Combats are reported from many parts of the region.
  • In the meantime, the EU and the USA are preparing another round of sanctions against, you guessed it, Russia.
  • Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has announced that if the regime in Kiev uses violence the talks scheduled for this Thursday in Geneva will be scrapped.
  • Putin called Obama and they had diplomats often call a "frank and lively exchange of views"
  • I have just received the confirmation that the video with the so-called "Russian Lt.-Colonel" is a fake made by a member of the UDAR party of Klitchko (Google translated article here)
It appears that after a few days of confusion and chaos, the regime in Kiev and its western sponsors have decided to try to solve the problem by brute force.  This maximalist strategy of "no negotiations, only violence" is fully consistent with the usual US practice and the record of the Ukie neo-Nazis.  For a few days there were signs that maybe a real negotiation might take place, but now this options seems have been discarded in favor of a violent crackdown.  Of course, the recent visit of the CIA director in Kiev (now admitted by the US government) had strictly nothing to do with that.  Yeah, right.

Now a lot will depend on how effective the Fascist forces will be in their crackdown.  I personally very much doubt that the goal of pacifying the eastern Ukraine is achievable.  The freaks can probably put down a town or two, but all of them seems hardly doable, even over time and one by one.

Furthermore, and even though the Kremlin really does not want to end up in this situation, I am quite certain that the Russia military will intervene should the bloodbath become too massive.

I am starting to get the feeling that the West's 1%ers have concluded that a civil war in the Ukraine and/or a Russian intervention might be a better option that a democratic and federalized Ukraine.  Within their own logic and twisted system of values, they might be right: there are more and more signs that a referendum or any chance for democracy could be used by the eastern Ukraine to secede.  So, in the traditional AngloZionist way, they concluded "if I can't have it, I burn it".

The idea that the Ukraine might turn into another Afghanistan is, however, naive to the extreme.  Afghanistan was a country united just about only one thing: the hatred of foreign occupiers.  Furthermore, the Soviet troops who fought there were officially doing their "internationalist duty" and not defending their own people and land.  Then, while the Soviet Union did occupy all of Afghanistan, thus an large hostile area, I am quite sure that any Russian military operation would stop at the Dniepr (who in Russia or eastern Ukraine needs to live "under one roof" with the Galician Nazis anyway?!).  Finally, and contrary to the prevailing myth, the Soviet military was rather successful in Afghanistan and it withdrew only because Gorbachev and the Russian people found it pointless, if not outright immoral, to invade another country.  In other words, politics got the Soviet out, not the prowess of the Afghan resistance who could not even take Kabul for a full three years after the Soviet withdrawal.

In contrast with Afghanistan, all the Russian military would have to do is whack the forces involved in the repression against the East and then let the locals take over.  Something not unlike what the Russians did in Georgia: they eliminated the Georgian armed forces, helped the folks in South Ossetia and Abkhazia get organized, withdrew and recognized the sovereignty of these republics.  One possible option for the Russian military would be to engage in a short but determined attack on key installations and units involved in the crackdown, then let the locals organize their "Republic of Donetsk" or "Novorossia" or whatever else they want to call it and recognize it as an independent state.  No such option was even remotely possible in Afghanistan.  So all that talk about a "new Afghanistan for Russia" is just wishful thinking by western elites.

The next week will be crucial and the outcome of the conflict will probably be decided in the next days so stay tuned.

Kind regards,

The Saker