Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Is Saudi Arabia next? If so, that could very dangerous

RT TV has just announced that the Shia of Saudi Arabia have declared that this Friday will be a "day of rage".

Considering that the US Empire will use absolutely all of its capabilities and resources to maintain its control on Saudi Arabia it is frighting to think of what could happen if Saudi Arabia blows up.  Saudi Arabia is neither Egypt, nor Libya. the differences are substantial.

First, I suspect that the grip of the House of Saudi on the country they rule is far stronger that Mubarak's.  Furthermore, I cannot image that the Saudis would have courage, intelligence, staying power and sophistication which the Egyptians have shown.

Second, the Saudi system of cronyism, patronage, tribalism and family connections is far more effective than the one implemented by Gaddafi (judging by how fast Libyan fat cats have turned their coats and supported the rebellion in an amazing 180deg turn).

Ikhwan leader
Lastly, the KSA has a praetorian guard in the form of the "National Guard" which is not at all what the name might suggest.  It is, in reality, a successor force to the infamous Inkhwan, a uniquely Wahabi kind of terror squad: very primitive, totally ruthless and utterly brainwashed.  The NG (currently 125'000 soldiers plus another 25'000 tribal thugs) is just the same Inkhwan, but with a modern polish on it, though it is still always commanded by a high ranking member of the royal family.  This force is mobile and extremely well armed (courtesy of Uncle Sam).  Interestingly, this force has no main battle tanks which, if needed, proves again that the only 'enemy' it is trained to fight (by Uncle Sam, of course) is the civilian population of the KSA.

Now consider this: if the Saudi regime throws the National Guard against the Shia of the Eastern Province then we can expect a bloodbath several orders of magnitude bigger then the relatively tame combats (so far) in Libya.  Needless to say, nobody in the Hague will investigate anything, no UNSC sanctions will be adopted, no monies abroad seized, etc.  So what will happen then?

Will it be possible for Iran to stand by while Shias are murdered by the 21-century version of the Inkhwan?  I really don't know.

Iran could very easily defeat the KSA, of course, in particular in the Shia areas of the country.  Both the Saudi military and the NG are lousy military forces, in particular compared to the Iranian military or the Pasdaran.  In case of military conflict the outcome would be preordained.  The problem is that the Saudi Shia have the bad luck of living right on top of the KSA's biggest oil reserves and there is absolutely no way, no way in hell, that the US Empire will ever allow Iran to control this territory.

In other words, the internal crisis in the KSA might well result in a US attack on Iran.

Nobody will be happier than I if one day the House of Saud falls and Shia of the KSA recover their freedom from the Wahabi crazies, but I have to point out that unlike the events in Tunisia, Egypt or Libya, a crisis in the KSA would entail a far more dangerous situation which could very rapidly become internationalized.

The Saker

PS: don't take this to the bank, but as far as I know, the favorite fetish of crazed Wahabis (Chechnia, Bosnia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Algeria, etc.) for cutting the throats of their prisoners comes from a desire to be Ikhwan-like as the latter are the ones who started this fashion.  I am not sure about that though, nor do I know where the Ikhwan got that idea.

Does anybody know if there any Koranic or "Sunnic" (is that English?) basis for throat-cutting?