The Vineyard of the Saker: 2015

Sunday, March 1, 2015

THIS BLOG HAS MOVED TO A NEW LOCATION

Dear friends,

The blog "Vineyard of the Saker" has now moved to a new location:

TheSaker.is: http://thesaker.is/

(please update your bookmarks!!)

The blog here will not be deleted, but will be "frozen" and kept as on online archive. This will also be an emergency backup blog in the unlikely event that something bad should happen to the blog at the new location.

To contact me please write to vineyardsaker@gmail.com

The Saker

Blogs of the Saker Community:

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Saturday, February 28, 2015

Good news out of Russia - even the "non-system" opposition refuses to blame the Kremlin

Honestly, I never thought the day would come where I would have anything good to say about the Russian "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition but apparently this day has come today. To my surprise, all the leaders of this opposition have so far made very moderate and reasonable statement and all those which I have heard have apparently dismissed the notion that the Kremlin was behind the murder. Now this might be self-evident for most of us, but for the Russian "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition this is quite a change of tone. Many have even said that this murder was a "provocation" (which in this context means "false flag"!) to destabilize Russia and create a crisis. Even Irina Khakamada, normally a real crackpot, has said that this was either a "provocation" or the action of a small group of extremists.

Maybe they are aware that the Russian public will not "buy" it, maybe MH17 was too clearly a false flag, or maybe they simply had a momentary moment of decency, but as far as I know nobody pointed the finger at Putin (okay, somebody somewhere probably did, I am just not aware of it). Again, this is quite remarkable.

Everybody, pro and anti Kremlin, agree that it is absolutely essential that this crime be solved. Since I personally believe that this was a US/UK organized false flag, I fully expect that somebody will be found and, as we say in Russian, that the "(trail) end will end in the water" meaning that there will be no proof of western involvement. If fact, even if the FSB *does* come across such proof, the Russians will most likely not make it public but use it behind the scenes. As for those who organized it, they also need somebody to get caught because if nobody ever gets caught, then this looks way too professional, but if a small cell of, say, rabid anti-Semitic nationalists, does get caught, then that exculpates all other possible suspects. Considering that the crime happened 200m away from the Kremlin, and that the city center is laced with cameras, I fully expect an arrest in the next 48 hours, a week max.

The bottom line is that in Russia this false flag is already a clear failure, not even the notorious Russian "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition wants to touch this thing. This is very good news indeed. In the West, of course, this is a different story, the AngloZionist will use that to a max, no doubt here at all.

The Saker

PS: while we are discussing false flags, I often get the question of why Putin does not say that 9/11 was in inside job even though he must know. Well, of course he knows, but ask yourself a simple question: why would he say anything? What would Russia gain from doing this? This would only further demonize him, and Russia, in the eyes of those who believe the official fairy tale and it would do nothing at all for Putin or Russia. As for the fact - they are all out in the open, and have been for a long time, just as the JFK murder or Gladio, 7/7, the Bologna railway station bombing, Charlie-Hebdo and all the rest of them. It is simply not Putin's job to share info with the western public, his job is to serve the Russian people. Finally, though I personally doubt it, there is some possibility that some Russian security services were involved in the Moscow apartment bombings on 1999 so Putin might want to tread carefully here lest the US retaliates by revealing what they know.

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Nemtsov murder: Putin warned about exactly this type of "false flag" two years ago

Already in February 2012 (two years ago!) Putin was warning Russians about exactly the kind of false flag which we just saw happening with the murder of Nemtsov. See for yourself:

Note: the Russian word "provocatsiia" is often translated as "provocation" which is not incorrect as long as you are aware that in Russian "provocation" can mean "false flag", as it does in this context. Putin is clearly warning about a false flag "sacrifice".

This video was emergency-translated by one of our "brother in arms", Tatzhit, to whom I am most grateful for this ultra-rapid translation.

As for the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition it has already announced that it will convert the planned protest into a memorial rally.

We will keep you posted.

The Saker
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DPR PM Zakharchenko presser 27/02/15 Economical and political future of DPR

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Friday, February 27, 2015

Breaking news: FALSE FLAG IN MOSCOW!

Boris Nemtsov has been shot dead in Moscow. He was one of the most charismatic leaders of the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition in Russia (please understand that in the Russian context "liberal" and "democratic" means pro-US or even CIA-run, while "non-system" means too small to even get a single deputy in the Duma). He was shot just a few days before the announced demonstration of the very same "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition scheduled for March 1st.

Nemtsov with Yushchenko

As I have already explained many times on this blog, the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition in Russia has a popular support somewhere in the range of 5% (max). In other words, it is politically *dead* (for a detailed explanation, please read "From Napoleon to Adolf Hitler to Conchita Wurst"). In the hopes of getting a higher number of people to the streets the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system"opposition allied itself with the ultra-nationalists (usually useful idiots for the CIA) and the homosexual activists (also useful idiots for the CIA). Apparently, this was not enough.

And now, in *perfect* timing, Nemtsov is murdered.

We all know the reaction of the AngloZionists and their propaganda machine. It will be exactly the same as for MH-17: Putin the Murderer!!! Democracy Shot!! Freedom Killed!! etc. etc. etc. etc.

There is no doubt in my mind at all that either this is a fantastically unlikely but always possible case of really bad luck for Putin and Nemtsov was shot by some nutcase or mugged, or this was a absolutely prototypical western false flag: you take a spent politician who has no credibility left with anyone with an IQ over 70, and you turn him into an instant "martyr for freedom, democracy, human right and civilization".

By the way if, as I believe, this is a false flag, I expect it to be a stunning success in the West and a total flop in Russia: by now, Russians already can smell that kind of setup a mile away and after MH-17 everybody was expecting a false flag. So, if anything, it will only increase the hostility of Russians towards the West and rally them around Putin. In the Empire, however, this will be huge, better than Politkovskaya or Litvinenko combined. A "Nemtsov" prize will be created, a Nemtov statue will be place somewhere (in Warsaw?), the US Congress will pass a "Nemtsov law" and the usual combo package of "democratic hagiography" will be whipped-up.

What worries me most is that the Russian security services did not see this one coming and let it happen. This is a major failure for the FSB which will now have a lot at stake to find out who did it. I expect them to find a fall-guy, a patsy, who will have no provable contacts with any western services and who, ideally, might even have some contacts with the Russian services (like Andrei Lugovoi).

As for the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" - it will probably re-brand the upcoming protests as a "tribute to Nemtsov" thereby getting more people into the streets.

There are folks in Langley tonight who got a promotion.

The Saker
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As any other form of warfare, information warfare also needs funding. Please help.

Dear friends,

In the recent weeks the donations have fallen to almost *zero* even though the combined readership between the two blogs is comfortably over 50'000 a day. Please help me to continue putting as many hours of work each day into the old and new blog and bring you the same quantity and quality of information and analyses. As any other form of warfare, information warfare also needs funding. Please help.

Thank you,

The Saker

27.02.2015 Novorossian State-Building Report. Ukraine Today

M. Khazin, “Relevant notes on Greece”

Source: http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1819611

Translated by Mikhael

A brief overview of post-election situation in Greece. This is a translation of the Russian version, there is also a published Greek translation

There is a new government in Greece. A left-wing government that has a rather complicated relationship with the “sacred right of private ownership”, particularly when it comes to Greek sovereign debt. In other words, it is leaning towards triggering a full blown debt crisis in the EU (and possibly impacting the entire world). But, as we have been taught back in 2008, a crisis doesn’t just bring problems, it also unveils new opportunities. That’s why it is important to have a more in-depth understanding of Greek politics, in particular to be able to recognize who will benefit from these new opportunities. To be able to analyze the situation correctly, it is necessary to explain one very important point crucial to understanding the events that are unfolding in the EU today.

Debt accumulation was a “reaganomics” instrument used to stimulate consumer demand, first in the USA and then, starting in 1981, across the entire world. In particular, by year 2008, the average household debt in the USA increased more than twofold when compared to 1980 (from 60-65% of available income to over 130%). The situation is a little better in the EU, but in Europe state budgets were used to stimulate consumer demand, resulting in higher national debts. The USA is quickly catching up in that department.

These debts were serviced using refinancing, supported by gradual decrease in borrowing costs (the minimum interest rate set by the Federal Reserve has gone from 19% in 1980 to just about 0% in 2008). Today it is impossible to repay these debts even with zero percent interest rate on refinancing without sharply declining the standard of living for general population. A twofold decline in the EU and the USA would be necessary. But that is unacceptable, which means that these debts need to be somehow liquidated. Either written off or dealt with at the cost of high inflation rates.

I will say this once again: it is impossible to pay off the debt that has been accumulated within the world economy, it simply does not generate financial flows on a scale required for this task. For example, the real average wage in the USA has not changed since 1950’s. All the increased spending happens at the cost of increased household and national debt, and declining savings. This problem must be solved, or it will resolve on its own – through a major economic crisis.

And this problem is already being dealt with. The first experiment was the restructuring of banks in Cyprus. It tested depositors’ reaction to the banks’ refusal to return their funds (or, rather, part of the funds). The experiment was a success – disgruntled depositors have not been able to win a single court case so far. It is possible that some of them were able to settle their claims informally, but such information is not openly available.

However, there is also the problem of national debt, which, in many ways, is a lot more complex as it is no longer about disgruntled ordinary households who can’t really hold the banks responsible, but instead it is going to affect major banks and financial institutions. For this very reason, any actions related to national debt need to be thoroughly planned and tested to avoid any risk. And this is where it would be fitting to recall a phrase from an old comedy: “the most dangerous experiments involve the least valuable members of the crew”.

Note this – when Haider got into Austrian government, Austria was ostracized in EU. A similar reaction could be observed when Jean-Marie Le Pen took part in the final round of presidential elections in France. These were classic right-wing politicians who would be considered mainstream in 1950’s. What about now? Left-wing party wins elections in Greece (with right-wing joining the ruling coalition), but we see no reaction from the EU political establishment, they are silent.

There is also another interesting circumstance. World debt accumulation was made possible by US dollar emission. This emission was supposed to be backed up by new assets, but, since 1990’s, when all former Soviet assets were finally “digested”, nothing new of any considerable value emerged in the world. Therefore, the usual mechanisms of redistribution of the emitted currency no longer work – this is another aspect of falling household incomes in most countries across the world. This brings us to an important question: how can the US be forced to share with the rest of the world?

“Old” elites, who benefited from emission income redistribution for many years, cannot do it – this must be done by new political figures who are currently part of opposition elites. There are minor exceptions such as Hungary. This small (for now?) country in Eastern Europe openly used blackmail when it gave its government control over the central bank. This decision was later revoked, but it is nearly impossible to get the full details of the deal through media resources. Greece has now become the second country in the EU where opposition elites came to power.

I suspect that this particular country will be “the least valuable member of the crew” which will be used to test mechanisms for writing off national debt. Hungary would not be a good choice for this – the government has too much support and its position looks pretty solid. It would be very hard for the EU to force its policies in Hungary.

Let’s reiterate the main point: there is a very high probability that EU leadership wants to use Greece as a “guinea pig” to test national debt write off mechanisms. Greece will get all the “cuts and bruises”, while the rest of the EU will get invaluable experience in minimizing negative consequences of an operation that will eventually have to take place in every country across the world. The main objective of the new Greek government is to get the highest possible compensation for participating in this “experiment”.

I will not be giving advices to the new Greek government – forewarned is forearmed. Especially considering that I do not specialize in politics, I am an economist. But it is necessary to take into account certain developments which might end up being very important. First of all – since opposition elites in the EU will be gaining more and more strength, there is no need to be worried about serious, on the edge of blackmail, confrontation scenarios. They will find their way into world politics one way or another, if not tomorrow, then the day after tomorrow.

Secondly, it is important to understand that the EU (and the world) does not care about Greek national debt, it just needs to test new mechanisms. And after this task is accomplished, the reaction to future attempts to write off or restructure national debt might be a lot tougher. That’s why the solution must be found on the largest possible scale, no need to run small-scale experiments.

Thirdly, EU leadership will try to control the situation by applying pressure on the government “from below”. In other words – various social protests will be organized whenever it will appear that the new Greek government is not “behaving”. And it must be ready for such developments.

Fourthly, there is just not that much time left. Various market indicators are suggesting that US markets have reached critical points in terms of overheating and a considerable correction is imminent. And if it begins, mostly likely there will no longer be enough time for complex operations.

In conclusion, it can be noted that the new Greek government has some very interesting political tools that doubtfulness should be used to improve the economic situation in the country. But they should be used with utmost caution to get maximum benefits and avoid potential dangers.
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The article was translated into Greek: http://gr.rbth.com/international/2015/02/11/symboyli_pro_ellada_poyliste_to_tomari_sa_akriba_35303.html
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27.02.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. Latest news of Ukraine, Donbass, Kiev, Russia, USA

Police beating people protesting currency collapse in Kiev

This is the note by Tatzhit Mihailovich under the YouTube video:

Remember how under the "dictator" Yanukovich, the police didn't disperse the protesters but only repelled extremists advancing on Congress and President's Administration? Yeah, that is no longer the case.

And how back then police didn't open fire even when the protesters burned a police armored car with Molotovs? Here, at 5:07 one can clearly hear them say several times: "touch us, and we will shoot to kill".

Oh yeah, and the reason those people are protesting: under Yanukovich, dollar cost 8 hryvna. Now, it costs 34! Those people have dollar loans - if before paying back say $50 a month took a quarter of their salary, now it may be more than they earn.

Meet the new boss, worse than the old boss?

UPDATE (full story at http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e65_14... ) :
This event is more interesting due to reaction to it, not the fact that police beat some protesters up. This far from the first time we see the new government being worse than "dictator" Yanukovich, starting with dispersing the original Maidan, mass arrests against Kharkov austerity rallies, clashes by the Rada, etc. This may be the first time the capital police do this to a non-violent crowd, but hardly something shocking.

What's interesting is the reaction: the event is exploding over a lot of Ukrainian media and social networks, apparently. Some popular bloggers are claiming it may be a staged excuse to topple Poroshenko, much like the carefully planned "Christmas tree" clash ultimately toppled Yanukovich.

Whether this is truly engineered, or the explosion of discontent is simply because common people and media alike smell the "blood in the water" (panic over the hryvna collapse just made the whole government hugely unpopular) is uncertain and may even turn out to be irrelevant - all that matters is what long-term fallout we will see. And this is already going way beyond a few hurt protesters and ruined tents...
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This is my secondary channel used for videos that may get copyright problems. Visit main channel at
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Ukraine February 26th SITREP: A Ukrainian Smørrebrød

Nothing major has happened over the past 24 hours, but a lot of small but interesting things have happened in the past couple of days. What I propose to do first today is to list them with a URL to the original source:

A Ukrainian Smørrebrød:

According to a recent poll of the Lithuanian TV station TV3 82% of their viewers say that Russian media info is trustworthy. Get the details here in English from FortRuss: http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/82-of-lithuanian-viewers-support-russia.html

There is now also a petition in the UK to oppose UK military involvement in the Ukraine. See here: http://www.change.org/p/hm-government-david-cameron-mp-no-to-british-military-involvement-in-ukraine

A Swiss newspaper is saying that the US delivered four mini-nukes to the Ukraine. I am 99.9999% sure that this is nonsense. But the rumor itself is an interesting fact. See here: http://www.schweizmagazin.ch/nachrichten/ausland/22283-Vier-amerikanische-Mini-Atombomben-der-Ukraine.html

Neocons still want to believe that they will beat Russia. See here: http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/why-russia-will-lose-ukraine

Russia and Cyprus has signed a military agreement. See here: http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/02/25/399160/Russia-Cyprus-ink-military-accord

Russia is offering Antey-2500 missiles to Iran. See here: http://rt.com/news/234855-russia-iran-missiles-deal/

Ukraine is entering hyperinflation. See here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-25/ukraine-enters-hyperinflation-currency-trading-halted-soon-we-will-wwalk-around-suit

Prices are causing shortages in the Ukraine. See here: http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/3483908-yz-za-rosta-tsen-ukrayntsy-opustoshauit-mahazyny

The OSCE is doing it's utmost not to notice that Novorussia is withdrawing its heavy weapons while the junta is not. See here: http://rt.com/news/235399-ukraine-osce-weapons-withdrawal/

Three citizens of Donetsk were executed by the Novorussian authorities for committing terrorist attacks using a 82mm mortar against the civilian population. Their motive? Money. See here: http://riafan.ru/217127-opolchentsyi-kaznili-troih-donchan-kotoryie-za-dengi-obstrelivali-gorod/

The US/NATO are continuing their saber-rattling along the Russian border. See here: http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-nato-military-convoys-of-tanks-and-armored-vehicles-at-russias-doorstep-rolling-along-the-estonia-russia-border/5433373

Novorussians soldiers are finding US equipment including communication gear in Debaltsevo. See here: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=86d_1424397139

Zakharchenko is fed up with junta's non-compliance with the Minsk accords and has issued an ultimatum: comply by tomorrow or else. See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqEu8XAL-zw

Summary:

It is quite clear that the junta is either unable or unwilling to implement the Minsk-2 Agreements (M2A) and that the US is acting like that agreement was never signed in the first place. In fact, since Poroshenko's power is entirely dependent on US support, I consider him as little more then the executioner of US orders with little or no power of his own.

There are more and more signs indicating that M2A was a major victory for Russia which succeeded in making the Europeans commit to something the US does not want and which Poroshenko cannot deliver on. Clearly, the US is now using all its power to get the OSCE to shut up and look the other way, but time is definitely on the Novorussian side: they can wait until it is clear that it was the junta which did not comply with M2A at which point the Russian-Novorussian border will de jure be lost for the junta (de facto they lost it last summer).

Zakharchanko is literally radiating confidence and so are the other Novorussians. The contrast with the chaos in Kiev could not be greater.

As for the US, it is acting like reality simply does not exist. For Uncle Sam, it purely "more of the same", more rhetoric, more saber-rattling, more hot air even though nobody seems to be taking it very seriously.

What will be crucial in the near future is to see whether Merkel and Hollande will hold the course on M2A or whether Uncle Sam will force them to cave in yet again. They now have *a lot* invested in M2A, but then again, so did the EU with Southstream. My feeling is that right now anything could happen, it is a 50/50 situation. Lavrov is doing a great job demanding that the German and French stick to the deal and so is Zakharchenko.

All in all, I am rather satisfied with the recent developments.

The Saker

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Thursday, February 26, 2015

26.02.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. War in Ukraine, Donbass, Kiev

At the finish line of deindustrialization: how Ukraine loses its industry

source: http://www.odnako.org/blogs/na-finishnoy-pryamoy-deindustrializacii-kak-ukraina-teryaet-promishlennost/

By Ivan Lizan

Translated by Eugene

Ukraine's refusal to cooperate with Russia in the military, scientific and technical fields has already begun to bear fruit. Naturally, this Kiev’s policy forced the citizens of Ukraine to eat only one (poisonous) kind of "fruit”: unemployment, poverty and deindustrialization.

Thanks to the West and Kiev for this

The goal of this break in cooperation, initiated by the Western curators of Kiev - while talking heads in the government only announced Washington's decision, wrapped in the slogan “Not a single spare part for the occupier!" - was actually the disruption of the state defense order of the Russian Federation.

"Geniuses" of the Ukrainian political thought expressed the intention to force Moscow’s capitulation by refusing to cooperate and to export components. For example, the Ukrainian political "giant" Yuri Lutsenko suggested to use the Yuzhmash plant as a means to blackmail Russia. The argument was truly "deadly", but, as turned out, not for Russia: "... all Russian nuclear missiles can be serviced only by our Yuzhmash. Without this service, the whole world will sing la-la-la-la" [reference to the obscene ditty “Putin huilo la-la-la-la” popular among anti-Russian Ukrs] - Lutsenko repeated in mid-July last year.

However, the negative effect of breaking the bonds is almost always mutual and is not immediate. Because, all of a sudden, it turned out that the mastodon of Ukrainian engineering - the backbone of Ukrainian rocket-building – Yuzhmash found itself between life and death. Yet, Russian companies still keep working, for reasons still unclear to Kiev.

How the flagship of rocket-building dies

The plant had problems before. They were not critical, but accumulated from year to year.

Americans were first to refuse cooperation with Yuzhmash because of the exploded Anthares rocket. Formally, the Americans are going to work for about a year on finalizing the technical solution for their rocket, so Yuzhmash will be left without US orders during this time. In reality, if Washington decides to renew the cooperation, they will not find anyone to talk with, as by that time the company will be reduced to just a pile of equipment.

The final nail in the plant’s coffin was the refusal of the Russian Federation to procure launch vehicles Zenit; they will be replaced with [Russian made] Angara.

As of mid-October 2014, about fifty employees were leaving the company on a daily basis. And they were the most valuable workers that could not be replaced by anyone else. The situation was aggravated by endless waves of "mogilizations" [wordplay: mobilization/mogilization as “mogila” means “grave” in Russian] announced by Kiev in the framework of the civil war in the East.

The number of mobilized workers is not precisely known, but the more employees will lose their jobs, the more will be sent to the ranks of the Ukrainian army - thus not only enhancing the country's defense, but also "creating new jobs." Therefore, the damage to the personnel potential will increase in direct proportion to the duration of the war and the number of layoffs at the plant.

Death of the enterprise: Just the facts

One can learn about the state of the company from the interview of its former director Victor Shchyogol, but here we are only interested in the facts and consequences of the plant’s closure:

-- over the past three years, the volume of production at the plant fell more than 4 times, and the volume of contracts with Russia decreased by 60 times, as calculated in hrivnya equivalent;

-- the closure of the plant will result in the loss of about 50 000 jobs at Yuzhmash and associated enterprises;

-- about 70% of the components for the launch vehicle Zenit was produced in cooperation with Russia;

-- contracts with the Brazilians and maintaining working relationships with the US will allow to employ only about 10% of the plant’s personnel;

-- cooperation with Russia terminated completely, resulting in the loss of more than 80% of the plant’s revenue;

-- employees of the company have not received wages for over seven months;

-- out of the total workforce of 7000, more than a thousand employees have left the company;

-- even two years ago, orders from Ukraine amounted to the miniscule 10 million hryvnia (just over $1 million at the 2013 exchange rate), now there are no orders at all.

Who is next?

The next candidates for demise are Antonov ASTC [Aviation Science and Technology Complex] and other machine-building enterprises.

On January 30 the IMF mission arrived in Antonov ASTC. They acquainted themselves with the work of the enterprise and visited the laboratory of static tests, the engineering and piloting stand, the trainer AN-148, assembly shops for both experimental and serial productions, and also learned about promising projects.

It is unknown, what was the real purpose of the visit by IMF clerks, but it is doubtful that the sharks of the Western capital were interested in a speedy recovery and development of the enterprise. Most likely, it goes to its liquidation. Probably, the closure of a number of high-tech industries is one condition for the disbursement of IMF loans to Kiev.

Remarkably, the dying Yuzhmash and Antonov are connected by industrial cooperation – the chassis for the aircraft family AN are made in Dnepropetrovsk.

The situation is no better in railcar construction - in the first half of last year, they assembled only about 3,500 cars with a capacity of 38 thousand. The Kharkov plant Electrotyazhmash has lost $41 million due to the cancellation of orders from Russia for the supply of turbine generators, electric motors and mine-drilling equipment. The losses of Yuzhkabel amounted to $12.4 million.

Only Turboatom and “Motor Sich" managed to survive - so far.

Next in line – the death of metallurgy, which remains in a state of depression for several years already. The destruction or loss of the Avdeevka coke plant will force Kiev to switch to imported coking coal, while the transition of Mariupol under the authority of DPR [Donetsk People Republic] will lead to the loss of the major port for exporting rolled metal. With diminished metal production, the state budget will lose a large share of its foreign currency earnings.

In the framework of the war between Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk, the ferroalloys sector, which is controlled by Igor Kolomoisky, could potentially die as well. Ferroalloys plants have not been modernized, and this is an incredibly energy-intensive industry. So far, the only thing that saves the industry – is the supply of electricity from Russia and the unwillingness of Kiev to confront Kolomoisky.

Quite vague are the prospects of chemical and food industries, however, the situation is no better in other areas of the economy that are suffering from young reformers and "visiting warriers" from the Baltic states and the US.

***

One can say with certainty that at the end of its civil war, the Ukraine will complete the process of de-industrialization, and what is left of it, will be able to grow only grains.

The existing objects of infrastructure are irrelevant to Kiev rulers, while the workers capable of servicing power plants and producing high-tech goods at miraculously survived factories will either die at the front, unable to avoid "mogilizations", or travel outside the country to escape from poverty. It is safe to admit that the administrative staff are absolutely incompetent, which is confirmed by regular accidents at Ukrainian nuclear power plants, which only narrowly failed to repeat the Chernobyl disaster.

The financial default, which Kiev will have to declare, inevitably, will only hasten the death of the industry. Together with the production shut down, Kiev will get a reduction of foreign exchange earnings, a decline in budget revenues, and, therefore, an approaching collapse and tens of thousands of lost jobs - not because of some Moscow’s policy, but from Kiev’s own desire to kill itself to spite Russia.

Because each new closed plant will only bring closer the start of large-scale urban riots and increase the number of opponents of the bankrupt project "Ukraine".
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This blog will CLOSE for comments on March 1st. The new
one has the popular threaded comments and faster moderation.

http://thesaker.is/blog/

Motorola & Givi awarded with Golden Stars of Heroes of DPR

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

25.02.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. Latest news of Ukraine, Donbass, ISIS, NATO, USA, Russia

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

Ukraine SITREP Feb 24th 2015

The withdrawal of heavy weapons and M2A:

The situation on the line of contact is generally calm. The Novorussian forces are withdrawing their heavy weapons according to schedule while the junta forces are, by most reports, not or, not much. The excuse for these delays is that "the necessary conditions have not been created". In reality, the problem is that Poroshenko has very little control over the various armed forces. Apparently, the regular armed forces do more or less obey him, and since these are the most heavily armed, there is some hope that they will eventually withdraw. The various death-squads (volunteer battalions, internal forces, etc.) will probably resist as much as possible, but since they don't have much heavy firepower, that is probably not a major obstacle right now.

There is also a very real possibility that Poroshenko himself might be preventing that withdrawal. The problem is not in the withdrawal of heavy guns by itself (the junta knows that the Novorussians will not attack) but that after completing this point of the Minsk 2 Agreement (M2A) the junta will have to go down the list and that is simply something the Nazis in Kiev cannot do. My guess is that all this talk about sending in peacekeepers has exactly the same rationale: to stop the implementation of M2A in a way that could not be blamed on Kiev. Clearly, M2A has delivered a crushing blow to the stance of the junta by forcing it to do something it cannot do: negotiate and work with the Novorussian resistance. I have no doubt that Poroshenko wants to break out of M2A, but his problem is how to do it without taking the blame for it. Hence the foot-dragging with an otherwise rather straightforward withdrawal and all that talk about peacekeepers.

US weapons to the Ukraine or Russian weapons to Iran?

The US is still determined to send more weapons to the Ukraine, even in direct violation of the spirit, if not the letter, of M2A. Russia is getting increasingly fed-up with that kind of attitude and Russian officials are now discussing selling the top-of-the-line Antey-2500 missile to Iran. This missile is arguable the most advanced air defense system on the planet and if the Russians really sell that to Iran the US and Israel will be absolutely sick with rage and frustration.

By the way, I was informed that there is a petition on the Internet trying to stop US weapons deliveries to the junta. If you can, please sign it here:

http://diy.rootsaction.org/petitions/no-weapons-to-ukraine

Signs of destabilization in Baderastan

The regime of Poroshenko is clearly in a very difficult situation. Roughly speaking, Poroshenko & Co represent the interests of oligarchs masquerading as Nazis while his opposition is the real thing - bona fide Nazi crackpots who feel that their "revolution of dignity" was stolen from them, that the new regime is every bit as corrupt as the old one, and far more incompetent. They are right, of course. So now more and more of these "grassroots Nazis" are threatening Poroshenko with a Third Maidan or even a revolution.

Check out this Right Sector site: http://pravyysektor.info/slider/25-02-2015-marsh-pravdy-marsh-pravyh/

Here is my translation of this text:

A year ago, they came to power in our blood. The blood of patriots. During this year they gave up the interests of Ukraine and betrayed the idea of the Ukrainian nation. They promised to fight corruption. They promised lustration. They made us poor. They destroyed belief in justice. They killed the truth. We remember the never investigated murders of hundreds of Maidan. We remember the murder of Sasha Belyi. We remember the shameful surrender Crimea. We remember Saur-Mogila, Ilovaiisk, the Donetsk airport, Debaltsevo. The perpetrators have not been punished. It's time to hold them to account!

And just to make sure that the message gets through, here is the poster illustrating it:

Right Sector poster

The text says:

March of the Truth
March of the Right
The Maidan did not fight for a regime of traitors
It is time to hold them to account

And it is signed by the Right Sector and the organization Trezub of S. Bandera (even crazier crazies than the regular crazies).

Now, it is true that by most accounts the USA has a tight control over the hardcore Nazi crazies in the Ukraine (via leaders like Iarosh) but I am beginning to detect this very old pattern of the puppet breaking lose from the puppeteer which we have all seen in Afghanistan, in Libya and Syria. I would argue that the neo-Nazis crazies in the Ukraine are very similar to the Takfiri freaks of ISIS or the so-called "Syrian opposition". The chances of that kind of hate-filled ideology slipping out of the control of those who fostered it (the USA) is very high.

What about our NATO friends?

Sir Adrian Bradshaw

NATO has been keeping busy. In fact, according to "British Commander Land Forces Lieutenant General Sir Adrian Bradshaw" NATO is preparing to repel a Russian invasion. In his own words Russian expansionist ambitions could quickly become “an obvious existential threat to our whole being”.

Apparently, the British feel that the Baltic States and Poland have greatly surpassed the UK in hysterical russophobia and fear-mongering and that now is the time to catch up with them with even more terrifying statements. What is sure is that Sir Adrian sure look extremely worried on his official picture...

Last but not least - the OSCE

The OSCE has taken notice with grave concern at the de-accreditation of over 100 Russian media sources in the Ukraine. But not because this might be a violation of free speech or journalism, no, but because, I kid you not, the OSCE is concerned that as a result of this de-accreditation "the Russian audience might be deprived from balanced reporting form the Ukraine"!!! The OSCE also added that the organization "understands that national security reasons" behind the Ukrainian decision.

Yet again, all I can say is that I fully agree with V. Nuland.

The Saker

Important clarifications about the new blog

Dear friends,

New blog presentation format:

A lot of you have emailed me to tell me that they don't like the "thematic" presentation used for the new blog and that you prefer a regular "chronological" one. That is very simple to address:

If you prefer the "thematic" one use this link: http://thesaker.is/
If you prefer the "chronological" one use this link: http://thesaker.is/blog/

I think that with time you will see that having a choice of both is actually very helpful. The thematic mode makes it far easier to research a topic while the second one makes it far easier to get the latest news. I think that this flexibility is a huge improvement over the rigid "chronological only" format.

Delay between posts on the old and new blog:

Some have noticed that post appear hear before they appear on the new blog. Correct. I am learning the various options offered by WordPress and my webmaster helps me in the process. So especially in the beginning, there will be a time lag between here (blogger is very simple to use, but also have very little functionality) and there (WordPress is extremely powerful but take a little bit of time to learn).

Moderation on the new blog:

Finally, moderation should improve massively. I remind you that my moderation policy is spelled out here: http://thesaker.is/moderation-policy/

And just to clarify - my moderators (there are 10 of them) have a sole function to allow comments which are clearly in compliance with that policy. However, they do not delete the others, but leave them to me to make the final decision. In other words, don't blame them from not allowing a comment, if that happens - blame me.

The good news is that your comments should get posted much faster. Also, there will be no software-controlled moderation and no obligation to sign up.

Comments:

Please do not post comments on this blog but only on the new one. And please DO let us know what you like and dislike about the new blog by posting our opinions under this article's comments section:

http://thesaker.is/the-new-saker-blog-v3-is-now-ready/

That's it for now.

I hope to have a Ukraine SITREP ready in a few hours.

Cheers and hugs,

The Saker

24.02.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. War in Ukraine, Donbass, Kiev, Crimea, Europe, Russia, USA

How to denazify the Nazis?

by Rostisalv Ishchenko

http://actualcomment.ru/kak-nam-obustroit-natsistov.html

Translated by S

I hope that at present those, who thought that Ukrainian civil war would continue for years and even for decades, clearly see that the Kiev regime and the government of Ukraine will fall within several months, at the worst – in about a year.

The war goes on, because the Kiev leadership, using habitual submissive inertia of the population and relying on wreckage of the state machinery, brutal force and the acknowledged central authority status, has an opportunity to accumulate the remaining recourses (equipment, people, money) and thrust them into the furnace of war.

If there is no at least nominally legitimate authority in Kiev, the army won’t fight, the Ministry of Internal Affairs will subject itself to the local authorities, and every Nazi gang refashioned into “volunteer battalion” will take orders from its führer and fight each other about loot. Also they, already far from being an organized military force, will plunder and commit atrocities in particular regions.

The Liberation army is capable to restore some order comparatively swiftly. It’s also possible to ensure the inhabitants’ minimum persistence (particularly with Russian support). But once the Nazi government, Nazi army and major Nazi gangs are gone, the society will still adhere to Nazi ideology, so ingrained in the heads of at least half of the population.

Meanwhile there will be a lot of weaponry. It’s easy to annihilate the hundred-men-gangs that drive tanks and APCs. It’s not hard to smash tens of hundreds of such gangs. But it is impossible to disarm the entire 40-million population.

Hence the record of the first crop of Banderites has been not only well-remembered, but heroized by Nazi propaganda, the hiding Nazis, having almost unlimited number of weapons, might start terrorizing people in the freed territories. Chasing the officials, followers and activists of a new authority, sabotaging and organizing diversions by hiding Nazis can become a greater and, above all, longer-lasting problem than the very military action.

Military-police methods of struggle with ideology-driven underground result efficient only over a long period and if the recourses of the hiding Nazis are limited. In a country with 2 million “civilians” who might be in sympathy with fascists it’s impossible to root out such kind of underground movement.

This underground, as the Lernaean Hydra, will grow new heads for each head cut off, despite alteration of generations. Its activities can be limited and made almost invisible, but not crushed to the full extent. It will wait for its finest hour for decades as the Banderites did between 1945 and 2014. It’s possible to put an end to active banderism and to underground Nazi resistance only if masses cease favoring the Nazi ideology.

There are not so many committed Nazis in Ukraine – up to several tens of thousands. Many have died and many will die on the civil war front. Many of them will be killed in the midst of the obliteration of armed gangs into which Ukrainian army is about to disintegrate. The hundreds of Nazis, who hold political posts or actively participate in propaganda activities, have already fallen under penal articles. If lived through, they will be jailed for long or forever. It’s impossible to imprison or kill off the millions. Better said, technically, yes, it’s possible, but moral, material and political costs will be too high, and the result won’t justify those costs.

That’s why the millions, who rejoiced at the “fried Colorado beetles” news through social media and demanded to annihilate the Donbass’ cities along with their populations (because in their opinion, “there are no civilians”), risk nothing: although their actions are amoral, however they lack the elements of crime. At the same time, those millions by moral support for Nazis (who are considered absent in Ukraine) prepare the nutrient medium the Nazi underground movement melts into. And in such a way it gets to be uncatchable and extremely enduring.

They, the millions, of course will accept a new ideology and will reason basing on TV news. But it won’t prevent them from being faithful to “European dream”, which has been stolen from them by Donbass people. The war will always dwell with war participants; they always deem themselves heroes. Mutilated soldiers, whose number totals to thousands and keeps growing, won’t tell their children that they lost limbs, having stupidly let drag themselves into fight for the wrong. They will talk nonsense about “European dream”, hordes of “Donbass terrorists” and quintillions of regular troops of the Russian Federation, against whom only a few fighters (“cyborgs”, “Kruty heroes”, “the 300 Spartans”) stood.

Marginal revanchism is a Nazi medium. While telling their children and grandchildren about merits beyond the call of duty, the most ordinary victims of 4 waves of mobilization, who are nowhere near the Nazi ideology, will impress the feeling of marginality (enmity toward state and society) upon their minds. They will also inculcate a desire to repeat “exploit” of the fathers and grandfathers and to “free” the non-vindicated Motherland in young generation.

This unobservable influence of family legends has not let the Ukrainizers oppress the Russian spirit in Ukraine within 3 post-soviet decades. But the same unnoted influence of family legends had allowed the Banderites to survive 70 years and show up at the beginning of the 21st century. It’s able to maintain the Ukrainian neo-Nazis’ ideas for entire decades and provide the grounds for hiding Nazis.

One can’t catch / jail / shoot all of them, given that those will seem to be alike, to be living next to you since ages, speaking the same language.

The only way to rapidly eradicate the Nazism or any other ideology is to make it unpopular with the society and to bring the carriers of this ideology out as uptight misfits who are bound to fail and rust. Actually the communist ideology was being wiped out exactly in this way since dissolution of the Soviet Union. As a result, the surveys done in all former soviet states show that, regarding matters of their concern, the most population sympathize with left wing’s agenda. Nevertheless, the general population vote for the right wing, because it’s sort of obscene to support the leftists.

So, we’re familiar with technology. Moreover, we know who the main target audience is: the youngsters. As the members of Ukrainian hitlerjugend aged 14 and older are unlikely to get reeducated easily, younger children and teenagers, especially kids aged 10 and less, will strongly depend on created social environment. When implementing more or less appropriate propagandistic activities, it’ll be possible for no parent to reveal to a child that he or she was killing children in Donetsk, that he or she was destroying the country by inflicting hunger, unemployment and disorder on sorely trouble-free state.

It was shameful to have a Nazi past in postwar Germany and Italy, i.e. after 1945. The anti-Nazi sentiment in those countries is one of the strongest. E.g. Germany even doesn’t let itself to publicly support neo-Nazism, as opposed to what Poland takes the liberty to do. The Polish ended up among victims of aggression circumstantially, they didn’t have to get denazified. They weren’t ashamed.

The first task is to give the society a moral reference point, to show it the seamy side of the today’s Kiev regime, so that no sane human being could admit that he or she voluntarily supports it.

There is the second task, and the German also completed it.

It suddenly turned out that there were no Nazis in the country that supported Hitler even after his death and was brought to senses only owing to decisive defeat of its armed forces and total occupation of its land. I mean, somebody perished in battles, somebody was executed, somebody was imprisoned, somebody managed to get away, but the rest happened to be anti-fascists… millions, tens of millions of anti-fascists, secret “regime busters”. German people experienced such a huge cultural shock that they (being of sound mind) could not avow that they had supported the Nazi regime. They persuaded themselves that, though silently, inwardly, they fought against Nazism. It turned out that even the millions of frontline soldiers “defended not Hitler, but Germany”.

It’s indispensable to let Ukrainian Nazi fellows, accomplices to the coup d’état, social media “fighters” feel themselves the regime’s opponents. They will find a pretext on their own. If an “anti-terrorist ops veteran” tells his grandchild that he lost hand defending the Donbass from Nazi horde or that he sustained burns not in a tank which was set afire when assaulting Slavyansk, but in a line of weaponless “Berkut” special forces who held back heavily armed militants, no doubt it won’t be fair with regard to retaliation matter (at least to moral condemnation), but farsighted as for denazification of the society. Person, telling to her or his son about how he or she fought against Nazis, will never be able to advocate the Nazism again. It’s possible to make it through whatever public disapproval. It’s impossible to get over the reproof of one’s own offspring, children and grandchildren.

The carrying out of a death sentence of Makarova Antonina M. (alias – Ton’ka The Machine gun shooter) took place in 1979. She collaborated with Nazi Germans in so called “Lokot Republic” in Bryansk region. In 1942 the woman shot dead more than 1500 people. Antonina raised 2 daughters to be true soviet citizens who hated Nazis and Nazi collaborators. The girls were staggered, having got to learn that in fact their mom was not an honored soviet trench fighter, but collaborator and Nazi butcher. Mrs Makarova worked hard in a postwar time; her photos did not leave the honor board. And it is not only her case. Many collaborators, traitors became all-right soviet citizens, best workers. Exactly this played badly for them. The witnesses of their crimes recognized them precisely by the honor board photos, newspaper images, etc.

It’s impossible to show a false face for decades. The majority of those people just psychologically replaced real biography by made-up one. All men are liable to invent explanations for their wrongdoings, and those explanations even justify and prove the misdeeds to be necessary. Dirty tricks are misrepresented as heroism. The person starts believing the invented version. This process goes faster in mass conscience. Already in 2005 more than a half of Kiev inhabitants who participated in the 1st Maidan asserted that they walked out to the streets not to support Yuschenko, that Yuschenko betrayed them, that “orange” politicians were all scum, that they would never come to protest on Maidan. However, in 2013 those people again went to Maidan. All the top brass of Ukraine elite, with rare exception, is former members of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (like Kravchuk and Kuchma who held senior positions in the party) or Komsomol (Young Communist League) leaders (like Turchinov). The most important is that, if those wake up tomorrow morning and find out that the Soviet Union has been miraculously revived, the first thing they’ll do is to take off to a district committee of the party and demand to reissue their party membership cards.

I’d like to point out once more that only certain, utmost lame (generally, psychologically insane) people can do evil and be proud of it. The most people find themselves on the dark side because of their own spinelessness and they forget about it with relish, if the society lets them forget.

That’s why it seems necessary to combine the following measures:

- severe punishment for leaders and organizers of the coup d’état, as well as for blatant war criminals and sadists (I think, it’s rather okay to postpone the restoration of regular justice system in the liberated territories for several weeks, so that people manage to impose their own sentence on criminals, if they will);

- pitiless execution of Nazis and thugs who refuse to lay down arms after Ukrainian military and governmental institutions collapse;

- intensive anti-Nazi propaganda while exposing all the horrors of Nazis’ crimes (without fear to go too far with that and not getting distracted from it by trending topics as time goes on);

- consigning to oblivion the behavior pattern of many cannon fodder guys and “volunteers” of the dictatorship, so giving them an opportunity to forget their past and raise kids right.

Of course, it’d be great to apply the methods of the USSR that forgave neither those who had joined punitive squads or auxiliary policy, nor those who had verbally favored German occupation (it did not matter whether in printed words or by word of mouth).

The French took more drastic measures. They hung ordinary city officials, who served in the Vichy government (by the way, this government was totally legal and it acted in conformity with the Constitution and laws of France). But neither USSR, nor France faced up to civil war (when a half of population fights against another one).

Civil war ends in victory of one or another party. There is no doubt that we’ll win. Nevertheless, the other party won’t vanish. It’s impossible to eliminate it. Since civil war got started, it is clear that every side is supported by remarkable percentage of citizens (up to a half), otherwise the majority would suppress the minority. Here you have the slaughter of minorities in Rwanda ([1994 genocide] stopped due to arrival of peacekeepers) and Cambodia ([1975-1979 genocide] ended following the Vietnamese invasion). It is not acceptable for Europe (by the way, those massacres in Africa and Asia settled not a single matter, while people who initiated and led them got killed in a short time).

Therefore, in any case we have to come to an agreement. Then the agreement can’t be a halfway one. There can be no ideological compromise with Nazism. So, the Nazi mob, which presently considers that Ukraine stays clean from Nazism, once we’ve won, firstly must get convinced that no, it doesn’t, and secondly that it was fighting the Nazism on its own whenever and wherever possible.

Otherwise this war will cast a shadow over decades. Even to the third generation, the revanchists will be ready to take advantage of whatever problems of ours in order to revenge.

If you can’t kill the carrier of ideology, kill the ideology. It’s difficult, but the only thing to do.

Rostislav Ischenko, president of the Centre for System Analysis and Forecast, exclusively for the “Timely comments”

New blog: request for comments

Dear friends,

I just want to invite you to share your comments about the new blog not here, but at the announcement post on the NEW blog. That way our IT specialist can track what is requested instead of going through all comments everywhere.

Many thanks,

The Saker

Monday, February 23, 2015

The new Saker blog (v3) is now ready.

Dear friends,

An American saying says that "the third time is the charm". I hope that this is true, because I am officially announcing the "new new blog v3" is now online at the following URL:

thesaker.is

This domain name was chosen by my webmaster who came up with this idea at the time when our community was attacked on all sides. It is also a clear reply to those who decided that they were with the "Charlies" and even "Charlies" themselves.

Here is a note that Gevorg asked me to share with all of you:

We have experienced some difficulties in the past month which left the new blog static until these matters could be sorted out. Some of the problems were related to technical issues like lost domain names or server re-configuration necessities. Others were related to personal matters and the separation of former supporters.

It took us some time to overcome these stumbling blocks and to re-organize everything. It is still an ongoing process.

But during this time we also found many new supporters and volunteers who have become part of our Saker team. They help us in maintaining and improving this international website project. There help is very valuable to us and I do express my gratitude towards those who are involved in this process.

Some of you, dear visitors, have voiced concerns in your comments about the future of this blog, some even suggested to not pursue it any longer and again others may have had a laugh or two during the time of our troubles.

It is for these reasons that I would like to post this comment before the following ones and kindly ask you to take notice of the following remark:

On behalf of ...

... the Saker
... the international team leaders and their groups
... the translators and content providers
... the silent readers and the voiceful commenters
... the financial helpers and moral supporters
... the IT-specialists and administrators
... those who prefer to remain anonymous and those who don't
... those who choose to have a religion and those who don't
... those who agree with this blog and those who don't
... those who seek the truth and despise the lie ...

I would like to add to a previous remark by stating ...

We stood our ground!

the Saker is

Yours sincerely,
Gevorg in Armenia
Webmaster of The Vineyard of the Saker

If the first new blog crashed for purely technical reasons, then the second one was deliberately sabotaged. But thanks to a fantastic group of volunteer IT-specialists the "New Blog v3" is now up again, and hopefully this time it will stay.

In fact, the this blog and the community around it is the result of the efforts of many people, probably close to 100, who quite literally all over the planet donate their time, skills and efforts to help with my blog, but also all the other Saker Community Blogs and I want to use this opportunity to extend to them all my most heartfelt and sincere gratitude for all they have done and are still doing. Friends - thank you!!!

Now I have a couple of things I want to explain and a few requests

First, I plan to double-post here (at http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/) and on the new blog (at http://thesaker.is/) and I will allow comments on both blogs for the next 2 weeks. Still, while I will not close down the comments section here, I ask you to please ONLY COMMENT ON THE NEW BLOG unless you *cannot* do that for some technical reason.

Second, in two weeks I will shut down the comments here. The blog here (at http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/) will probably still be updated just to serve as a backup in case of disaster with the new blog, but that will be it's sole purpose.

It is important to redirect as much comments and traffic to the new blog because we need to test if the server, the blog and the moderators can handle the traffic (last month the just the blog here had just under 1.8 million views including some days which had just over 84'000 visitors).

Finally, one member of our community, the Rift, has made a beautiful video animation to encourage donations to this blog:

I hope that this short clip will encourage you all to help me in my struggle!

Many thanks and kind regards,

The Saker

PS: you want to see if we make a difference? Just google "maidan one year later" :-)