Deconstructing Yanukovich's treason (and Yulia on her way to freedom!)

So it is done. Yanukovich has fully capitulated. He has signed a deal with the insurgents which, according to the BBC, includes the following provisions:

• The 2004 constitution will be restored within 48 hours, and a national unity government will be formed within 10 days
• Constitutional reform balancing the powers of president, government and parliament will be started immediately and completed by September
• A presidential election will be held after the new constitution is adopted but no later than December 2014 and new electoral laws will be passed
• An investigation into recent acts of violence will be conducted under joint monitoring from the authorities, the opposition and the Council of Europe
• The authorities will not impose a state of emergency and both the authorities and the opposition will refrain from the use of violence
• Illegal weapons will be handed over to interior ministry bodies

 What does really mean in plain, simple, English?

The so-called "return to the 2004 Constitution" really means that the President has handed over the control of all the police and security forces to the Parliament.  Hence, from a legal point of view, he has handed over to the insurgents the legal command over the Berkut riot cops who were beaten up, burned, maimed, tortured and killed by these very same insurgents, but under orders from Yanukovich not to use lethal force.  In the light of this absolute monstrosity, I can only applaud the foresight and wisdom of the governors of Kharkov and Crimea who have called back their local Berkut forces.

The so-called "national unity government" means that the insurgents will get to run the country but without having to bear the full responsibility for the economic, political and social disaster the Ukraine is going to be plunged into.

As for the so-called "investigation into recent acts of violence" it will clear all the insurgents and terrorists from any accusations of wrongdoing and put all the blame on the policemen who tried to maintain law and order and protect the Presidency.

This is bound to go down in history as one of the biggest acts of national treason in modern times.

Needless to say, the real leaders of insurgency, the so-called 'Right Block', have rejected the accord and have promised to continue their 'resistance' until complete regime-change.

This latest development really turns a page. The experiment of a Ukraine as a unitary state has clearly failed and, short of a miracle, a civil war followed by a breakup of the country in two or more parts is now inevitable.  Kiev has fallen and the new "Eastern Front" has now moved roughly 400km to the east.  A long conflict is about to begin.

The Saker

PS: I have just learned that the insurgent-controlled Parliament has voted to free Timoshenko.  Good!  I hope that they give her cell to Yanukovich now, as he is infinitely more deserving of it than she ever was.