Foreign Minister Lavrov - "A mistake - but not a disaster"

This is what Lavrov said today in reaction to the disinvitation of Iran: "this is a mistake, but not a disaster".  He also pointed out that Iran had been disinvited for saying exactly the same thing as Russia: that Geneva I could not be "interpreted" as mandating Assad's departure.  And then he added: "so what, they are going to disinvite us next?  this is crazy!".

Guys, I am sorry, but Russia just screwed up, badly.  Here is why:

Logical mistake:

First, what are "negotiations"?  They are discussions between two or more parties.  In this case, there are really two parties here: the pro-Assad party and the anti-Assad party.  Well, since when does not party get to dictate the membership of the other party?  If the anti-Assad party says that Iran is not invited, why can't the pro-Assad party demand that France be excluded on the grounds that French Foreign Minister Fabius had declared that Assad did not deserve to live on our planet?

Tactical mistake:

Second, there can be no doubt that the pro-Assad side is winning the war.  So why does the losing side get to set terms?!  If anything, it should be the other way around.  And if the losing side is setting such outrageous terms, then the winning side should simply reject them and walk away.  By agreeing to these terms, the pro-Assad side is acting as if it was losing.

Political mistake:

Third, now that the pro-Assad forces have agreed to take this "slap in the face" without any reaction, this encourages the anti-Assad forces to take an uncompromising stance.  A negotiation which begins in an uncompromising manner will not end with a compromise.  And why should it?  All the anti-Assad side will do now is demand, demand and demand.

Moral mistake:

Fourth, Iran simply has the moral right to be at that table.  Ethics and morals should count, if not for the Ziocrazies and the Anglos, then for the Resistance.  Iran fought to protect Syria, Iranians died in combats to protect the Syrians from the Wahabi reptiles.  Iran stood by one almost nobody had the courage to openly oppose the international terrorist constellation which the corporate media calls the "opposition".  How can Russia and Syria just walk away from Iran when Iran played a crucial role in the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance?  How can the Syrians and the Russians allow Indonesia or Brazil to attend but not Iran?  This is not how you treat friends, if you ask me.

Diplomatic mistake:

Fifth and last, considering that this conference is starting in such a absurd way, it will most likely end in a failure.  In fact, I think that it would be better for it to end in a failure because only a failure of this conference can be used to prove that Iran's presence is "a must" for a deal to be reached.  Then the blame game will start.  If Syria and Russia has refused to even show up in solidarity with Iran, and if they have made a halfway articulate case for that, the blame would have fallen upon the crazy US demands.  Instead, the US gets to sabotage the conference and walk away like nothing happened.

So what now?

Bosnia redux

It appears that neither Russia nor Syria will be walking away.  Frankly, my best hope at this point is a comprehensive failure of the conference as I rather get no agreement at all than an agreement which will sell out the advantages which the Syrian military secured at the costs of the blood of its soldiers.  Alas, Само слога Србина спасава (Samo sloga Srbina spasava) which can be translated as "only unity will save the Serbs".

the pressure will now be on some kind of deal, this is Bosnia revisited again, and we all know how this ended the first time around: the Serbs won the war, the Muslims refused to negotiate in good faith, the US intervened.  But most importantly, the AngloZionists succeeded in breaking up the Serbs into several groups: first, Milosevic back-stabbed the Bosnian-Serbs and agreed to help the blockade against them; then, inside Bosnia, the so-called "Federal forces" were either withdrawn or agreed to put their weapons under UN control; then the Serbs from the Krajinas in Croatia were told that their issue was a separate one from the one of the Bosnia-Serbs and then having nicely split them up, the US and NATO attacked them all.  What all the Serbs had forgotten at the time is the meaning of their main symbol, the "four s"

The strength of the Hezbollah-Syria-Iran-Russia alliance also is in its unity.  It is only this unity which defeated the Wahabis at al-Qusayr and which stopped an imminent US attack on Syria.  Now that unity is compromised, if not fundamentally, than at least externally.

No, Russia and Syria made a huge mistake in accepting such a last minute affront from the anti-Assad camp and its UN puppet.  Using Lavrov's own words, I think that caving in to such brazen arrogance is also a mistake, and not a disaster, but I will add that avoiding a disaster is now the order of the day.  Nothing good can come out of Geneva II.

The Saker