Honestly, I never thought the day would come where I would have anything good to say about the Russian "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition but apparently this day has come today. To my surprise, all the leaders of this opposition have so far made very moderate and reasonable statement and all those which I have heard have apparently dismissed the notion that the Kremlin was behind the murder. Now this might be self-evident for most of us, but for the Russian "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition this is quite a change of tone. Many have even said that this murder was a "provocation" (which in this context means "false flag"!) to destabilize Russia and create a crisis. Even Irina Khakamada, normally a real crackpot, has said that this was either a "provocation" or the action of a small group of extremists.
Maybe they are aware that the Russian public will not "buy" it, maybe MH17 was too clearly a false flag, or maybe they simply had a momentary moment of decency, but as far as I know nobody pointed the finger at Putin (okay, somebody somewhere probably did, I am just not aware of it). Again, this is quite remarkable.
Everybody, pro and anti Kremlin, agree that it is absolutely essential that this crime be solved. Since I personally believe that this was a US/UK organized false flag, I fully expect that somebody will be found and, as we say in Russian, that the "(trail) end will end in the water" meaning that there will be no proof of western involvement. If fact, even if the FSB *does* come across such proof, the Russians will most likely not make it public but use it behind the scenes. As for those who organized it, they also need somebody to get caught because if nobody ever gets caught, then this looks way too professional, but if a small cell of, say, rabid anti-Semitic nationalists, does get caught, then that exculpates all other possible suspects. Considering that the crime happened 200m away from the Kremlin, and that the city center is laced with cameras, I fully expect an arrest in the next 48 hours, a week max.
The bottom line is that in Russia this false flag is already a clear failure, not even the notorious Russian "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition wants to touch this thing. This is very good news indeed. In the West, of course, this is a different story, the AngloZionist will use that to a max, no doubt here at all.
The Saker
PS: while we are discussing false flags, I often get the question of why Putin does not say that 9/11 was in inside job even though he must know. Well, of course he knows, but ask yourself a simple question: why would he say anything? What would Russia gain from doing this? This would only further demonize him, and Russia, in the eyes of those who believe the official fairy tale and it would do nothing at all for Putin or Russia. As for the fact - they are all out in the open, and have been for a long time, just as the JFK murder or Gladio, 7/7, the Bologna railway station bombing, Charlie-Hebdo and all the rest of them. It is simply not Putin's job to share info with the western public, his job is to serve the Russian people. Finally, though I personally doubt it, there is some possibility that some Russian security services were involved in the Moscow apartment bombings on 1999 so Putin might want to tread carefully here lest the US retaliates by revealing what they know.
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Saturday, February 28, 2015
Nemtsov murder: Putin warned about exactly this type of "false flag" two years ago
Already in February 2012 (two years ago!) Putin was warning Russians about exactly the kind of false flag which we just saw happening with the murder of Nemtsov. See for yourself:
Note: the Russian word "provocatsiia" is often translated as "provocation" which is not incorrect as long as you are aware that in Russian "provocation" can mean "false flag", as it does in this context. Putin is clearly warning about a false flag "sacrifice".
This video was emergency-translated by one of our "brother in arms", Tatzhit, to whom I am most grateful for this ultra-rapid translation.
As for the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition it has already announced that it will convert the planned protest into a memorial rally.
We will keep you posted.
The Saker
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Note: the Russian word "provocatsiia" is often translated as "provocation" which is not incorrect as long as you are aware that in Russian "provocation" can mean "false flag", as it does in this context. Putin is clearly warning about a false flag "sacrifice".
This video was emergency-translated by one of our "brother in arms", Tatzhit, to whom I am most grateful for this ultra-rapid translation.
As for the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition it has already announced that it will convert the planned protest into a memorial rally.
We will keep you posted.
The Saker
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DPR PM Zakharchenko presser 27/02/15 Economical and political future of DPR
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Friday, February 27, 2015
Breaking news: FALSE FLAG IN MOSCOW!
Boris Nemtsov has been shot dead in Moscow. He was one of the most charismatic leaders of the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition in Russia (please understand that in the Russian context "liberal" and "democratic" means pro-US or even CIA-run, while "non-system" means too small to even get a single deputy in the Duma). He was shot just a few days before the announced demonstration of the very same "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition scheduled for March 1st.
As I have already explained many times on this blog, the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" opposition in Russia has a popular support somewhere in the range of 5% (max). In other words, it is politically *dead* (for a detailed explanation, please read "From Napoleon to Adolf Hitler to Conchita Wurst"). In the hopes of getting a higher number of people to the streets the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system"opposition allied itself with the ultra-nationalists (usually useful idiots for the CIA) and the homosexual activists (also useful idiots for the CIA). Apparently, this was not enough.
And now, in *perfect* timing, Nemtsov is murdered.
We all know the reaction of the AngloZionists and their propaganda machine. It will be exactly the same as for MH-17: Putin the Murderer!!! Democracy Shot!! Freedom Killed!! etc. etc. etc. etc.
There is no doubt in my mind at all that either this is a fantastically unlikely but always possible case of really bad luck for Putin and Nemtsov was shot by some nutcase or mugged, or this was a absolutely prototypical western false flag: you take a spent politician who has no credibility left with anyone with an IQ over 70, and you turn him into an instant "martyr for freedom, democracy, human right and civilization".
By the way if, as I believe, this is a false flag, I expect it to be a stunning success in the West and a total flop in Russia: by now, Russians already can smell that kind of setup a mile away and after MH-17 everybody was expecting a false flag. So, if anything, it will only increase the hostility of Russians towards the West and rally them around Putin. In the Empire, however, this will be huge, better than Politkovskaya or Litvinenko combined. A "Nemtsov" prize will be created, a Nemtov statue will be place somewhere (in Warsaw?), the US Congress will pass a "Nemtsov law" and the usual combo package of "democratic hagiography" will be whipped-up.
What worries me most is that the Russian security services did not see this one coming and let it happen. This is a major failure for the FSB which will now have a lot at stake to find out who did it. I expect them to find a fall-guy, a patsy, who will have no provable contacts with any western services and who, ideally, might even have some contacts with the Russian services (like Andrei Lugovoi).
As for the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" - it will probably re-brand the upcoming protests as a "tribute to Nemtsov" thereby getting more people into the streets.
There are folks in Langley tonight who got a promotion.
The Saker
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 |
| Nemtsov with Yushchenko |
And now, in *perfect* timing, Nemtsov is murdered.
We all know the reaction of the AngloZionists and their propaganda machine. It will be exactly the same as for MH-17: Putin the Murderer!!! Democracy Shot!! Freedom Killed!! etc. etc. etc. etc.
There is no doubt in my mind at all that either this is a fantastically unlikely but always possible case of really bad luck for Putin and Nemtsov was shot by some nutcase or mugged, or this was a absolutely prototypical western false flag: you take a spent politician who has no credibility left with anyone with an IQ over 70, and you turn him into an instant "martyr for freedom, democracy, human right and civilization".
By the way if, as I believe, this is a false flag, I expect it to be a stunning success in the West and a total flop in Russia: by now, Russians already can smell that kind of setup a mile away and after MH-17 everybody was expecting a false flag. So, if anything, it will only increase the hostility of Russians towards the West and rally them around Putin. In the Empire, however, this will be huge, better than Politkovskaya or Litvinenko combined. A "Nemtsov" prize will be created, a Nemtov statue will be place somewhere (in Warsaw?), the US Congress will pass a "Nemtsov law" and the usual combo package of "democratic hagiography" will be whipped-up.
What worries me most is that the Russian security services did not see this one coming and let it happen. This is a major failure for the FSB which will now have a lot at stake to find out who did it. I expect them to find a fall-guy, a patsy, who will have no provable contacts with any western services and who, ideally, might even have some contacts with the Russian services (like Andrei Lugovoi).
As for the "liberal" or "democratic" "non-system" - it will probably re-brand the upcoming protests as a "tribute to Nemtsov" thereby getting more people into the streets.
There are folks in Langley tonight who got a promotion.
The Saker
-------
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As any other form of warfare, information warfare also needs funding. Please help.
Dear friends,
In the recent weeks the donations have fallen to almost *zero* even though the combined readership between the two blogs is comfortably over 50'000 a day. Please help me to continue putting as many hours of work each day into the old and new blog and bring you the same quantity and quality of information and analyses. As any other form of warfare, information warfare also needs funding. Please help.
Thank you,
The Saker
In the recent weeks the donations have fallen to almost *zero* even though the combined readership between the two blogs is comfortably over 50'000 a day. Please help me to continue putting as many hours of work each day into the old and new blog and bring you the same quantity and quality of information and analyses. As any other form of warfare, information warfare also needs funding. Please help.
Thank you,
The Saker
27.02.2015 Novorossian State-Building Report. Ukraine Today
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M. Khazin, “Relevant notes on Greece”
Source: http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1819611
Translated by Mikhael
A brief overview of post-election situation in Greece. This is a translation of the Russian version, there is also a published Greek translation
There is a new government in Greece. A left-wing government that has a rather complicated relationship with the “sacred right of private ownership”, particularly when it comes to Greek sovereign debt. In other words, it is leaning towards triggering a full blown debt crisis in the EU (and possibly impacting the entire world). But, as we have been taught back in 2008, a crisis doesn’t just bring problems, it also unveils new opportunities. That’s why it is important to have a more in-depth understanding of Greek politics, in particular to be able to recognize who will benefit from these new opportunities. To be able to analyze the situation correctly, it is necessary to explain one very important point crucial to understanding the events that are unfolding in the EU today.
Debt accumulation was a “reaganomics” instrument used to stimulate consumer demand, first in the USA and then, starting in 1981, across the entire world. In particular, by year 2008, the average household debt in the USA increased more than twofold when compared to 1980 (from 60-65% of available income to over 130%). The situation is a little better in the EU, but in Europe state budgets were used to stimulate consumer demand, resulting in higher national debts. The USA is quickly catching up in that department.
These debts were serviced using refinancing, supported by gradual decrease in borrowing costs (the minimum interest rate set by the Federal Reserve has gone from 19% in 1980 to just about 0% in 2008). Today it is impossible to repay these debts even with zero percent interest rate on refinancing without sharply declining the standard of living for general population. A twofold decline in the EU and the USA would be necessary. But that is unacceptable, which means that these debts need to be somehow liquidated. Either written off or dealt with at the cost of high inflation rates.
I will say this once again: it is impossible to pay off the debt that has been accumulated within the world economy, it simply does not generate financial flows on a scale required for this task. For example, the real average wage in the USA has not changed since 1950’s. All the increased spending happens at the cost of increased household and national debt, and declining savings. This problem must be solved, or it will resolve on its own – through a major economic crisis.
And this problem is already being dealt with. The first experiment was the restructuring of banks in Cyprus. It tested depositors’ reaction to the banks’ refusal to return their funds (or, rather, part of the funds). The experiment was a success – disgruntled depositors have not been able to win a single court case so far. It is possible that some of them were able to settle their claims informally, but such information is not openly available.
However, there is also the problem of national debt, which, in many ways, is a lot more complex as it is no longer about disgruntled ordinary households who can’t really hold the banks responsible, but instead it is going to affect major banks and financial institutions. For this very reason, any actions related to national debt need to be thoroughly planned and tested to avoid any risk. And this is where it would be fitting to recall a phrase from an old comedy: “the most dangerous experiments involve the least valuable members of the crew”.
Note this – when Haider got into Austrian government, Austria was ostracized in EU. A similar reaction could be observed when Jean-Marie Le Pen took part in the final round of presidential elections in France. These were classic right-wing politicians who would be considered mainstream in 1950’s. What about now? Left-wing party wins elections in Greece (with right-wing joining the ruling coalition), but we see no reaction from the EU political establishment, they are silent.
There is also another interesting circumstance. World debt accumulation was made possible by US dollar emission. This emission was supposed to be backed up by new assets, but, since 1990’s, when all former Soviet assets were finally “digested”, nothing new of any considerable value emerged in the world. Therefore, the usual mechanisms of redistribution of the emitted currency no longer work – this is another aspect of falling household incomes in most countries across the world. This brings us to an important question: how can the US be forced to share with the rest of the world?
“Old” elites, who benefited from emission income redistribution for many years, cannot do it – this must be done by new political figures who are currently part of opposition elites. There are minor exceptions such as Hungary. This small (for now?) country in Eastern Europe openly used blackmail when it gave its government control over the central bank. This decision was later revoked, but it is nearly impossible to get the full details of the deal through media resources. Greece has now become the second country in the EU where opposition elites came to power.
I suspect that this particular country will be “the least valuable member of the crew” which will be used to test mechanisms for writing off national debt. Hungary would not be a good choice for this – the government has too much support and its position looks pretty solid. It would be very hard for the EU to force its policies in Hungary.
Let’s reiterate the main point: there is a very high probability that EU leadership wants to use Greece as a “guinea pig” to test national debt write off mechanisms. Greece will get all the “cuts and bruises”, while the rest of the EU will get invaluable experience in minimizing negative consequences of an operation that will eventually have to take place in every country across the world. The main objective of the new Greek government is to get the highest possible compensation for participating in this “experiment”.
I will not be giving advices to the new Greek government – forewarned is forearmed. Especially considering that I do not specialize in politics, I am an economist. But it is necessary to take into account certain developments which might end up being very important. First of all – since opposition elites in the EU will be gaining more and more strength, there is no need to be worried about serious, on the edge of blackmail, confrontation scenarios. They will find their way into world politics one way or another, if not tomorrow, then the day after tomorrow.
Secondly, it is important to understand that the EU (and the world) does not care about Greek national debt, it just needs to test new mechanisms. And after this task is accomplished, the reaction to future attempts to write off or restructure national debt might be a lot tougher. That’s why the solution must be found on the largest possible scale, no need to run small-scale experiments.
Thirdly, EU leadership will try to control the situation by applying pressure on the government “from below”. In other words – various social protests will be organized whenever it will appear that the new Greek government is not “behaving”. And it must be ready for such developments.
Fourthly, there is just not that much time left. Various market indicators are suggesting that US markets have reached critical points in terms of overheating and a considerable correction is imminent. And if it begins, mostly likely there will no longer be enough time for complex operations.
In conclusion, it can be noted that the new Greek government has some very interesting political tools that doubtfulness should be used to improve the economic situation in the country. But they should be used with utmost caution to get maximum benefits and avoid potential dangers.
* * *
The article was translated into Greek: http://gr.rbth.com/international/2015/02/11/symboyli_pro_ellada_poyliste_to_tomari_sa_akriba_35303.html
-----
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Translated by Mikhael
A brief overview of post-election situation in Greece. This is a translation of the Russian version, there is also a published Greek translation
There is a new government in Greece. A left-wing government that has a rather complicated relationship with the “sacred right of private ownership”, particularly when it comes to Greek sovereign debt. In other words, it is leaning towards triggering a full blown debt crisis in the EU (and possibly impacting the entire world). But, as we have been taught back in 2008, a crisis doesn’t just bring problems, it also unveils new opportunities. That’s why it is important to have a more in-depth understanding of Greek politics, in particular to be able to recognize who will benefit from these new opportunities. To be able to analyze the situation correctly, it is necessary to explain one very important point crucial to understanding the events that are unfolding in the EU today.
Debt accumulation was a “reaganomics” instrument used to stimulate consumer demand, first in the USA and then, starting in 1981, across the entire world. In particular, by year 2008, the average household debt in the USA increased more than twofold when compared to 1980 (from 60-65% of available income to over 130%). The situation is a little better in the EU, but in Europe state budgets were used to stimulate consumer demand, resulting in higher national debts. The USA is quickly catching up in that department.
These debts were serviced using refinancing, supported by gradual decrease in borrowing costs (the minimum interest rate set by the Federal Reserve has gone from 19% in 1980 to just about 0% in 2008). Today it is impossible to repay these debts even with zero percent interest rate on refinancing without sharply declining the standard of living for general population. A twofold decline in the EU and the USA would be necessary. But that is unacceptable, which means that these debts need to be somehow liquidated. Either written off or dealt with at the cost of high inflation rates.
I will say this once again: it is impossible to pay off the debt that has been accumulated within the world economy, it simply does not generate financial flows on a scale required for this task. For example, the real average wage in the USA has not changed since 1950’s. All the increased spending happens at the cost of increased household and national debt, and declining savings. This problem must be solved, or it will resolve on its own – through a major economic crisis.
And this problem is already being dealt with. The first experiment was the restructuring of banks in Cyprus. It tested depositors’ reaction to the banks’ refusal to return their funds (or, rather, part of the funds). The experiment was a success – disgruntled depositors have not been able to win a single court case so far. It is possible that some of them were able to settle their claims informally, but such information is not openly available.
However, there is also the problem of national debt, which, in many ways, is a lot more complex as it is no longer about disgruntled ordinary households who can’t really hold the banks responsible, but instead it is going to affect major banks and financial institutions. For this very reason, any actions related to national debt need to be thoroughly planned and tested to avoid any risk. And this is where it would be fitting to recall a phrase from an old comedy: “the most dangerous experiments involve the least valuable members of the crew”.
Note this – when Haider got into Austrian government, Austria was ostracized in EU. A similar reaction could be observed when Jean-Marie Le Pen took part in the final round of presidential elections in France. These were classic right-wing politicians who would be considered mainstream in 1950’s. What about now? Left-wing party wins elections in Greece (with right-wing joining the ruling coalition), but we see no reaction from the EU political establishment, they are silent.
There is also another interesting circumstance. World debt accumulation was made possible by US dollar emission. This emission was supposed to be backed up by new assets, but, since 1990’s, when all former Soviet assets were finally “digested”, nothing new of any considerable value emerged in the world. Therefore, the usual mechanisms of redistribution of the emitted currency no longer work – this is another aspect of falling household incomes in most countries across the world. This brings us to an important question: how can the US be forced to share with the rest of the world?
“Old” elites, who benefited from emission income redistribution for many years, cannot do it – this must be done by new political figures who are currently part of opposition elites. There are minor exceptions such as Hungary. This small (for now?) country in Eastern Europe openly used blackmail when it gave its government control over the central bank. This decision was later revoked, but it is nearly impossible to get the full details of the deal through media resources. Greece has now become the second country in the EU where opposition elites came to power.
I suspect that this particular country will be “the least valuable member of the crew” which will be used to test mechanisms for writing off national debt. Hungary would not be a good choice for this – the government has too much support and its position looks pretty solid. It would be very hard for the EU to force its policies in Hungary.
Let’s reiterate the main point: there is a very high probability that EU leadership wants to use Greece as a “guinea pig” to test national debt write off mechanisms. Greece will get all the “cuts and bruises”, while the rest of the EU will get invaluable experience in minimizing negative consequences of an operation that will eventually have to take place in every country across the world. The main objective of the new Greek government is to get the highest possible compensation for participating in this “experiment”.
I will not be giving advices to the new Greek government – forewarned is forearmed. Especially considering that I do not specialize in politics, I am an economist. But it is necessary to take into account certain developments which might end up being very important. First of all – since opposition elites in the EU will be gaining more and more strength, there is no need to be worried about serious, on the edge of blackmail, confrontation scenarios. They will find their way into world politics one way or another, if not tomorrow, then the day after tomorrow.
Secondly, it is important to understand that the EU (and the world) does not care about Greek national debt, it just needs to test new mechanisms. And after this task is accomplished, the reaction to future attempts to write off or restructure national debt might be a lot tougher. That’s why the solution must be found on the largest possible scale, no need to run small-scale experiments.
Thirdly, EU leadership will try to control the situation by applying pressure on the government “from below”. In other words – various social protests will be organized whenever it will appear that the new Greek government is not “behaving”. And it must be ready for such developments.
Fourthly, there is just not that much time left. Various market indicators are suggesting that US markets have reached critical points in terms of overheating and a considerable correction is imminent. And if it begins, mostly likely there will no longer be enough time for complex operations.
In conclusion, it can be noted that the new Greek government has some very interesting political tools that doubtfulness should be used to improve the economic situation in the country. But they should be used with utmost caution to get maximum benefits and avoid potential dangers.
* * *
The article was translated into Greek: http://gr.rbth.com/international/2015/02/11/symboyli_pro_ellada_poyliste_to_tomari_sa_akriba_35303.html
-----
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27.02.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. Latest news of Ukraine, Donbass, Kiev, Russia, USA
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Police beating people protesting currency collapse in Kiev
This is the note by Tatzhit Mihailovich under the YouTube video:
Remember how under the "dictator" Yanukovich, the police didn't disperse the protesters but only repelled extremists advancing on Congress and President's Administration? Yeah, that is no longer the case.
And how back then police didn't open fire even when the protesters burned a police armored car with Molotovs? Here, at 5:07 one can clearly hear them say several times: "touch us, and we will shoot to kill".
Oh yeah, and the reason those people are protesting: under Yanukovich, dollar cost 8 hryvna. Now, it costs 34! Those people have dollar loans - if before paying back say $50 a month took a quarter of their salary, now it may be more than they earn.
Meet the new boss, worse than the old boss?
UPDATE (full story at http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e65_14... ) :
This event is more interesting due to reaction to it, not the fact that police beat some protesters up. This far from the first time we see the new government being worse than "dictator" Yanukovich, starting with dispersing the original Maidan, mass arrests against Kharkov austerity rallies, clashes by the Rada, etc. This may be the first time the capital police do this to a non-violent crowd, but hardly something shocking.
What's interesting is the reaction: the event is exploding over a lot of Ukrainian media and social networks, apparently. Some popular bloggers are claiming it may be a staged excuse to topple Poroshenko, much like the carefully planned "Christmas tree" clash ultimately toppled Yanukovich.
Whether this is truly engineered, or the explosion of discontent is simply because common people and media alike smell the "blood in the water" (panic over the hryvna collapse just made the whole government hugely unpopular) is uncertain and may even turn out to be irrelevant - all that matters is what long-term fallout we will see. And this is already going way beyond a few hurt protesters and ruined tents...
----------
This is my secondary channel used for videos that may get copyright problems. Visit main channel at
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Main liveleak channel with Ukraine politics&war explained: http://www.liveleak.com/c/Tatzhit
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Ukraine February 26th SITREP: A Ukrainian Smørrebrød
Nothing major has happened over the past 24 hours, but a lot of small but interesting things have happened in the past couple of days. What I propose to do first today is to list them with a URL to the original source:
A Ukrainian Smørrebrød:
According to a recent poll of the Lithuanian TV station TV3 82% of their viewers say that Russian media info is trustworthy. Get the details here in English from FortRuss: http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/82-of-lithuanian-viewers-support-russia.html
There is now also a petition in the UK to oppose UK military involvement in the Ukraine. See here: http://www.change.org/p/hm-government-david-cameron-mp-no-to-british-military-involvement-in-ukraine
A Swiss newspaper is saying that the US delivered four mini-nukes to the Ukraine. I am 99.9999% sure that this is nonsense. But the rumor itself is an interesting fact. See here: http://www.schweizmagazin.ch/nachrichten/ausland/22283-Vier-amerikanische-Mini-Atombomben-der-Ukraine.html
Neocons still want to believe that they will beat Russia. See here: http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/why-russia-will-lose-ukraine
Russia and Cyprus has signed a military agreement. See here: http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/02/25/399160/Russia-Cyprus-ink-military-accord
Russia is offering Antey-2500 missiles to Iran. See here: http://rt.com/news/234855-russia-iran-missiles-deal/
Ukraine is entering hyperinflation. See here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-25/ukraine-enters-hyperinflation-currency-trading-halted-soon-we-will-wwalk-around-suit
Prices are causing shortages in the Ukraine. See here: http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/3483908-yz-za-rosta-tsen-ukrayntsy-opustoshauit-mahazyny
The OSCE is doing it's utmost not to notice that Novorussia is withdrawing its heavy weapons while the junta is not. See here: http://rt.com/news/235399-ukraine-osce-weapons-withdrawal/
Three citizens of Donetsk were executed by the Novorussian authorities for committing terrorist attacks using a 82mm mortar against the civilian population. Their motive? Money. See here: http://riafan.ru/217127-opolchentsyi-kaznili-troih-donchan-kotoryie-za-dengi-obstrelivali-gorod/
The US/NATO are continuing their saber-rattling along the Russian border. See here: http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-nato-military-convoys-of-tanks-and-armored-vehicles-at-russias-doorstep-rolling-along-the-estonia-russia-border/5433373
Novorussians soldiers are finding US equipment including communication gear in Debaltsevo. See here: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=86d_1424397139
Zakharchenko is fed up with junta's non-compliance with the Minsk accords and has issued an ultimatum: comply by tomorrow or else. See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqEu8XAL-zw
Summary:
It is quite clear that the junta is either unable or unwilling to implement the Minsk-2 Agreements (M2A) and that the US is acting like that agreement was never signed in the first place. In fact, since Poroshenko's power is entirely dependent on US support, I consider him as little more then the executioner of US orders with little or no power of his own.
There are more and more signs indicating that M2A was a major victory for Russia which succeeded in making the Europeans commit to something the US does not want and which Poroshenko cannot deliver on. Clearly, the US is now using all its power to get the OSCE to shut up and look the other way, but time is definitely on the Novorussian side: they can wait until it is clear that it was the junta which did not comply with M2A at which point the Russian-Novorussian border will de jure be lost for the junta (de facto they lost it last summer).
Zakharchanko is literally radiating confidence and so are the other Novorussians. The contrast with the chaos in Kiev could not be greater.
As for the US, it is acting like reality simply does not exist. For Uncle Sam, it purely "more of the same", more rhetoric, more saber-rattling, more hot air even though nobody seems to be taking it very seriously.
What will be crucial in the near future is to see whether Merkel and Hollande will hold the course on M2A or whether Uncle Sam will force them to cave in yet again. They now have *a lot* invested in M2A, but then again, so did the EU with Southstream. My feeling is that right now anything could happen, it is a 50/50 situation. Lavrov is doing a great job demanding that the German and French stick to the deal and so is Zakharchenko.
All in all, I am rather satisfied with the recent developments.
The Saker
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A Ukrainian Smørrebrød:
According to a recent poll of the Lithuanian TV station TV3 82% of their viewers say that Russian media info is trustworthy. Get the details here in English from FortRuss: http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/82-of-lithuanian-viewers-support-russia.html
There is now also a petition in the UK to oppose UK military involvement in the Ukraine. See here: http://www.change.org/p/hm-government-david-cameron-mp-no-to-british-military-involvement-in-ukraine
A Swiss newspaper is saying that the US delivered four mini-nukes to the Ukraine. I am 99.9999% sure that this is nonsense. But the rumor itself is an interesting fact. See here: http://www.schweizmagazin.ch/nachrichten/ausland/22283-Vier-amerikanische-Mini-Atombomben-der-Ukraine.html
Neocons still want to believe that they will beat Russia. See here: http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/why-russia-will-lose-ukraine
Russia and Cyprus has signed a military agreement. See here: http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/02/25/399160/Russia-Cyprus-ink-military-accord
Russia is offering Antey-2500 missiles to Iran. See here: http://rt.com/news/234855-russia-iran-missiles-deal/
Ukraine is entering hyperinflation. See here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-25/ukraine-enters-hyperinflation-currency-trading-halted-soon-we-will-wwalk-around-suit
Prices are causing shortages in the Ukraine. See here: http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/events/3483908-yz-za-rosta-tsen-ukrayntsy-opustoshauit-mahazyny
The OSCE is doing it's utmost not to notice that Novorussia is withdrawing its heavy weapons while the junta is not. See here: http://rt.com/news/235399-ukraine-osce-weapons-withdrawal/
Three citizens of Donetsk were executed by the Novorussian authorities for committing terrorist attacks using a 82mm mortar against the civilian population. Their motive? Money. See here: http://riafan.ru/217127-opolchentsyi-kaznili-troih-donchan-kotoryie-za-dengi-obstrelivali-gorod/
The US/NATO are continuing their saber-rattling along the Russian border. See here: http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-nato-military-convoys-of-tanks-and-armored-vehicles-at-russias-doorstep-rolling-along-the-estonia-russia-border/5433373
Novorussians soldiers are finding US equipment including communication gear in Debaltsevo. See here: http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=86d_1424397139
Zakharchenko is fed up with junta's non-compliance with the Minsk accords and has issued an ultimatum: comply by tomorrow or else. See here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqEu8XAL-zw
Summary:
It is quite clear that the junta is either unable or unwilling to implement the Minsk-2 Agreements (M2A) and that the US is acting like that agreement was never signed in the first place. In fact, since Poroshenko's power is entirely dependent on US support, I consider him as little more then the executioner of US orders with little or no power of his own.
There are more and more signs indicating that M2A was a major victory for Russia which succeeded in making the Europeans commit to something the US does not want and which Poroshenko cannot deliver on. Clearly, the US is now using all its power to get the OSCE to shut up and look the other way, but time is definitely on the Novorussian side: they can wait until it is clear that it was the junta which did not comply with M2A at which point the Russian-Novorussian border will de jure be lost for the junta (de facto they lost it last summer).
Zakharchanko is literally radiating confidence and so are the other Novorussians. The contrast with the chaos in Kiev could not be greater.
As for the US, it is acting like reality simply does not exist. For Uncle Sam, it purely "more of the same", more rhetoric, more saber-rattling, more hot air even though nobody seems to be taking it very seriously.
What will be crucial in the near future is to see whether Merkel and Hollande will hold the course on M2A or whether Uncle Sam will force them to cave in yet again. They now have *a lot* invested in M2A, but then again, so did the EU with Southstream. My feeling is that right now anything could happen, it is a 50/50 situation. Lavrov is doing a great job demanding that the German and French stick to the deal and so is Zakharchenko.
All in all, I am rather satisfied with the recent developments.
The Saker
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Thursday, February 26, 2015
26.02.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. War in Ukraine, Donbass, Kiev
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At the finish line of deindustrialization: how Ukraine loses its industry
source: http://www.odnako.org/blogs/na-finishnoy-pryamoy-deindustrializacii-kak-ukraina-teryaet-promishlennost/
By Ivan Lizan
Translated by Eugene
Ukraine's refusal to cooperate with Russia in the military, scientific and technical fields has already begun to bear fruit. Naturally, this Kiev’s policy forced the citizens of Ukraine to eat only one (poisonous) kind of "fruit”: unemployment, poverty and deindustrialization.
Thanks to the West and Kiev for this
The goal of this break in cooperation, initiated by the Western curators of Kiev - while talking heads in the government only announced Washington's decision, wrapped in the slogan “Not a single spare part for the occupier!" - was actually the disruption of the state defense order of the Russian Federation.
"Geniuses" of the Ukrainian political thought expressed the intention to force Moscow’s capitulation by refusing to cooperate and to export components. For example, the Ukrainian political "giant" Yuri Lutsenko suggested to use the Yuzhmash plant as a means to blackmail Russia. The argument was truly "deadly", but, as turned out, not for Russia: "... all Russian nuclear missiles can be serviced only by our Yuzhmash. Without this service, the whole world will sing la-la-la-la" [reference to the obscene ditty “Putin huilo la-la-la-la” popular among anti-Russian Ukrs] - Lutsenko repeated in mid-July last year.
However, the negative effect of breaking the bonds is almost always mutual and is not immediate. Because, all of a sudden, it turned out that the mastodon of Ukrainian engineering - the backbone of Ukrainian rocket-building – Yuzhmash found itself between life and death. Yet, Russian companies still keep working, for reasons still unclear to Kiev.
How the flagship of rocket-building dies
The plant had problems before. They were not critical, but accumulated from year to year.
Americans were first to refuse cooperation with Yuzhmash because of the exploded Anthares rocket. Formally, the Americans are going to work for about a year on finalizing the technical solution for their rocket, so Yuzhmash will be left without US orders during this time. In reality, if Washington decides to renew the cooperation, they will not find anyone to talk with, as by that time the company will be reduced to just a pile of equipment.
The final nail in the plant’s coffin was the refusal of the Russian Federation to procure launch vehicles Zenit; they will be replaced with [Russian made] Angara.
As of mid-October 2014, about fifty employees were leaving the company on a daily basis. And they were the most valuable workers that could not be replaced by anyone else. The situation was aggravated by endless waves of "mogilizations" [wordplay: mobilization/mogilization as “mogila” means “grave” in Russian] announced by Kiev in the framework of the civil war in the East.
The number of mobilized workers is not precisely known, but the more employees will lose their jobs, the more will be sent to the ranks of the Ukrainian army - thus not only enhancing the country's defense, but also "creating new jobs." Therefore, the damage to the personnel potential will increase in direct proportion to the duration of the war and the number of layoffs at the plant.
Death of the enterprise: Just the facts
One can learn about the state of the company from the interview of its former director Victor Shchyogol, but here we are only interested in the facts and consequences of the plant’s closure:
-- over the past three years, the volume of production at the plant fell more than 4 times, and the volume of contracts with Russia decreased by 60 times, as calculated in hrivnya equivalent;
-- the closure of the plant will result in the loss of about 50 000 jobs at Yuzhmash and associated enterprises;
-- about 70% of the components for the launch vehicle Zenit was produced in cooperation with Russia;
-- contracts with the Brazilians and maintaining working relationships with the US will allow to employ only about 10% of the plant’s personnel;
-- cooperation with Russia terminated completely, resulting in the loss of more than 80% of the plant’s revenue;
-- employees of the company have not received wages for over seven months;
-- out of the total workforce of 7000, more than a thousand employees have left the company;
-- even two years ago, orders from Ukraine amounted to the miniscule 10 million hryvnia (just over $1 million at the 2013 exchange rate), now there are no orders at all.
Who is next?
The next candidates for demise are Antonov ASTC [Aviation Science and Technology Complex] and other machine-building enterprises.
On January 30 the IMF mission arrived in Antonov ASTC. They acquainted themselves with the work of the enterprise and visited the laboratory of static tests, the engineering and piloting stand, the trainer AN-148, assembly shops for both experimental and serial productions, and also learned about promising projects.
It is unknown, what was the real purpose of the visit by IMF clerks, but it is doubtful that the sharks of the Western capital were interested in a speedy recovery and development of the enterprise. Most likely, it goes to its liquidation. Probably, the closure of a number of high-tech industries is one condition for the disbursement of IMF loans to Kiev.
Remarkably, the dying Yuzhmash and Antonov are connected by industrial cooperation – the chassis for the aircraft family AN are made in Dnepropetrovsk.
The situation is no better in railcar construction - in the first half of last year, they assembled only about 3,500 cars with a capacity of 38 thousand. The Kharkov plant Electrotyazhmash has lost $41 million due to the cancellation of orders from Russia for the supply of turbine generators, electric motors and mine-drilling equipment. The losses of Yuzhkabel amounted to $12.4 million.
Only Turboatom and “Motor Sich" managed to survive - so far.
Next in line – the death of metallurgy, which remains in a state of depression for several years already. The destruction or loss of the Avdeevka coke plant will force Kiev to switch to imported coking coal, while the transition of Mariupol under the authority of DPR [Donetsk People Republic] will lead to the loss of the major port for exporting rolled metal. With diminished metal production, the state budget will lose a large share of its foreign currency earnings.
In the framework of the war between Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk, the ferroalloys sector, which is controlled by Igor Kolomoisky, could potentially die as well. Ferroalloys plants have not been modernized, and this is an incredibly energy-intensive industry. So far, the only thing that saves the industry – is the supply of electricity from Russia and the unwillingness of Kiev to confront Kolomoisky.
Quite vague are the prospects of chemical and food industries, however, the situation is no better in other areas of the economy that are suffering from young reformers and "visiting warriers" from the Baltic states and the US.
***
One can say with certainty that at the end of its civil war, the Ukraine will complete the process of de-industrialization, and what is left of it, will be able to grow only grains.
The existing objects of infrastructure are irrelevant to Kiev rulers, while the workers capable of servicing power plants and producing high-tech goods at miraculously survived factories will either die at the front, unable to avoid "mogilizations", or travel outside the country to escape from poverty. It is safe to admit that the administrative staff are absolutely incompetent, which is confirmed by regular accidents at Ukrainian nuclear power plants, which only narrowly failed to repeat the Chernobyl disaster.
The financial default, which Kiev will have to declare, inevitably, will only hasten the death of the industry. Together with the production shut down, Kiev will get a reduction of foreign exchange earnings, a decline in budget revenues, and, therefore, an approaching collapse and tens of thousands of lost jobs - not because of some Moscow’s policy, but from Kiev’s own desire to kill itself to spite Russia.
Because each new closed plant will only bring closer the start of large-scale urban riots and increase the number of opponents of the bankrupt project "Ukraine".
-------
Saker note @EVERYBODY PLEASE POST YOUR COMMENTS ON THE NEW BLOG!
This blog will CLOSE for comments on March 1st. The new
one has the popular threaded comments and faster moderation.
http://thesaker.is/blog/
By Ivan Lizan
Translated by Eugene
Ukraine's refusal to cooperate with Russia in the military, scientific and technical fields has already begun to bear fruit. Naturally, this Kiev’s policy forced the citizens of Ukraine to eat only one (poisonous) kind of "fruit”: unemployment, poverty and deindustrialization.
Thanks to the West and Kiev for this
The goal of this break in cooperation, initiated by the Western curators of Kiev - while talking heads in the government only announced Washington's decision, wrapped in the slogan “Not a single spare part for the occupier!" - was actually the disruption of the state defense order of the Russian Federation.
"Geniuses" of the Ukrainian political thought expressed the intention to force Moscow’s capitulation by refusing to cooperate and to export components. For example, the Ukrainian political "giant" Yuri Lutsenko suggested to use the Yuzhmash plant as a means to blackmail Russia. The argument was truly "deadly", but, as turned out, not for Russia: "... all Russian nuclear missiles can be serviced only by our Yuzhmash. Without this service, the whole world will sing la-la-la-la" [reference to the obscene ditty “Putin huilo la-la-la-la” popular among anti-Russian Ukrs] - Lutsenko repeated in mid-July last year.
However, the negative effect of breaking the bonds is almost always mutual and is not immediate. Because, all of a sudden, it turned out that the mastodon of Ukrainian engineering - the backbone of Ukrainian rocket-building – Yuzhmash found itself between life and death. Yet, Russian companies still keep working, for reasons still unclear to Kiev.
How the flagship of rocket-building dies
The plant had problems before. They were not critical, but accumulated from year to year.
Americans were first to refuse cooperation with Yuzhmash because of the exploded Anthares rocket. Formally, the Americans are going to work for about a year on finalizing the technical solution for their rocket, so Yuzhmash will be left without US orders during this time. In reality, if Washington decides to renew the cooperation, they will not find anyone to talk with, as by that time the company will be reduced to just a pile of equipment.
The final nail in the plant’s coffin was the refusal of the Russian Federation to procure launch vehicles Zenit; they will be replaced with [Russian made] Angara.
As of mid-October 2014, about fifty employees were leaving the company on a daily basis. And they were the most valuable workers that could not be replaced by anyone else. The situation was aggravated by endless waves of "mogilizations" [wordplay: mobilization/mogilization as “mogila” means “grave” in Russian] announced by Kiev in the framework of the civil war in the East.
The number of mobilized workers is not precisely known, but the more employees will lose their jobs, the more will be sent to the ranks of the Ukrainian army - thus not only enhancing the country's defense, but also "creating new jobs." Therefore, the damage to the personnel potential will increase in direct proportion to the duration of the war and the number of layoffs at the plant.
Death of the enterprise: Just the facts
One can learn about the state of the company from the interview of its former director Victor Shchyogol, but here we are only interested in the facts and consequences of the plant’s closure:
-- over the past three years, the volume of production at the plant fell more than 4 times, and the volume of contracts with Russia decreased by 60 times, as calculated in hrivnya equivalent;
-- the closure of the plant will result in the loss of about 50 000 jobs at Yuzhmash and associated enterprises;
-- about 70% of the components for the launch vehicle Zenit was produced in cooperation with Russia;
-- contracts with the Brazilians and maintaining working relationships with the US will allow to employ only about 10% of the plant’s personnel;
-- cooperation with Russia terminated completely, resulting in the loss of more than 80% of the plant’s revenue;
-- employees of the company have not received wages for over seven months;
-- out of the total workforce of 7000, more than a thousand employees have left the company;
-- even two years ago, orders from Ukraine amounted to the miniscule 10 million hryvnia (just over $1 million at the 2013 exchange rate), now there are no orders at all.
Who is next?
The next candidates for demise are Antonov ASTC [Aviation Science and Technology Complex] and other machine-building enterprises.
On January 30 the IMF mission arrived in Antonov ASTC. They acquainted themselves with the work of the enterprise and visited the laboratory of static tests, the engineering and piloting stand, the trainer AN-148, assembly shops for both experimental and serial productions, and also learned about promising projects.
It is unknown, what was the real purpose of the visit by IMF clerks, but it is doubtful that the sharks of the Western capital were interested in a speedy recovery and development of the enterprise. Most likely, it goes to its liquidation. Probably, the closure of a number of high-tech industries is one condition for the disbursement of IMF loans to Kiev.
Remarkably, the dying Yuzhmash and Antonov are connected by industrial cooperation – the chassis for the aircraft family AN are made in Dnepropetrovsk.
The situation is no better in railcar construction - in the first half of last year, they assembled only about 3,500 cars with a capacity of 38 thousand. The Kharkov plant Electrotyazhmash has lost $41 million due to the cancellation of orders from Russia for the supply of turbine generators, electric motors and mine-drilling equipment. The losses of Yuzhkabel amounted to $12.4 million.
Only Turboatom and “Motor Sich" managed to survive - so far.
Next in line – the death of metallurgy, which remains in a state of depression for several years already. The destruction or loss of the Avdeevka coke plant will force Kiev to switch to imported coking coal, while the transition of Mariupol under the authority of DPR [Donetsk People Republic] will lead to the loss of the major port for exporting rolled metal. With diminished metal production, the state budget will lose a large share of its foreign currency earnings.
In the framework of the war between Kiev and Dnepropetrovsk, the ferroalloys sector, which is controlled by Igor Kolomoisky, could potentially die as well. Ferroalloys plants have not been modernized, and this is an incredibly energy-intensive industry. So far, the only thing that saves the industry – is the supply of electricity from Russia and the unwillingness of Kiev to confront Kolomoisky.
Quite vague are the prospects of chemical and food industries, however, the situation is no better in other areas of the economy that are suffering from young reformers and "visiting warriers" from the Baltic states and the US.
***
One can say with certainty that at the end of its civil war, the Ukraine will complete the process of de-industrialization, and what is left of it, will be able to grow only grains.
The existing objects of infrastructure are irrelevant to Kiev rulers, while the workers capable of servicing power plants and producing high-tech goods at miraculously survived factories will either die at the front, unable to avoid "mogilizations", or travel outside the country to escape from poverty. It is safe to admit that the administrative staff are absolutely incompetent, which is confirmed by regular accidents at Ukrainian nuclear power plants, which only narrowly failed to repeat the Chernobyl disaster.
The financial default, which Kiev will have to declare, inevitably, will only hasten the death of the industry. Together with the production shut down, Kiev will get a reduction of foreign exchange earnings, a decline in budget revenues, and, therefore, an approaching collapse and tens of thousands of lost jobs - not because of some Moscow’s policy, but from Kiev’s own desire to kill itself to spite Russia.
Because each new closed plant will only bring closer the start of large-scale urban riots and increase the number of opponents of the bankrupt project "Ukraine".
-------
Saker note @EVERYBODY PLEASE POST YOUR COMMENTS ON THE NEW BLOG!
This blog will CLOSE for comments on March 1st. The new
one has the popular threaded comments and faster moderation.
http://thesaker.is/blog/
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