Short message for some commentators

I would like the following commentators to email me:

Seamus Padraig
elsi
eimar clark

Please email me at vineyardsaker@gmail.com

Thanks!

The Saker

The press in Banderastan

The new Eurocraine has decided to mark the first anniversary of its glorious revolution by removing the accreditation of over 100 Russian news organizations from any official state body.  We should salute that.  Initially, Russian journalists were simply kidnapped and often murdered, now they are simply denied accreditation and the Russian media banned from the Ukrainian controlled outlets.  I suppose that this is a form of "progress".

In the meantime, one of the worst Ukrainian presstitutes, Savik Shuster, got fired and his program banned because just once, he made an on-air interview with the Russian journalist Maksim Shevchenko.  The ueber-freak Oleg Liashko was also in the studio and he had a total fit declaring that his conversation (which lasted 5 min) was in violation of the new Ukie criminal code and that he would file a complaint.  He did and Shuster got fired.  Interestingly, the very same Liashko also declared that there was more freedom of speech under Yanukovich than under Poroshenko.  Go figure...

To top it all off, Nadezhda Savchenko, the Ukrainian artillery controller who was involved in the murder of two Russian journalists and who is in jail in Russia has been elected to the Rada which retroactively makes her immune from prosecution, at least that is the junta's point of view.  There is a photo of Savchenko on the podium of the Rada and she has been added to the Ukrainian delegation to the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.  Savchenko is now defended by the same lawyer who defended Pussy Riot, I kid you not.

Glory to the Ukraine!  To the heroes glory!

The Saker

Email from a friend: Picture from Lvov 2/19/14

Saker:
Regarding your article today, I hope you will publish this picture on your website:

I screencaptured this some time back from a notorious German expatriate neo-Nazi on Twitter.
Its worth memorializing just who stole heavy military weapons from the government security forces and entered them into the Maidan conflict, which would be the people of Lvov, Lemberg, Lwow, Lviv or whatever the heck they want me to call their city.  It was these same people who also stated they were bringing artillery pieces like this to Kiev, with transport starting on 2/19/14.  The fall of the Yanukovich government was quite predicatable after that, given his pacifistic approach to the insurrection and avoidance of bloodshed.
Peaceful European values and all that ... just like 1941.

Andrew

Ukraine... It's a Heist!!!

Excellent video made by a friend.  Please distribute!

The Maidan - one year later

Today is the first anniversary of the deal made between Yanukovich and the "opposition" and guaranteed by foreign ministers Radosław Sikorski of Poland, Laurent Fabius of France and Frank-Walter Steinmeier of Germany.  As we all know, the deal resulted in a withdrawal of the security forces from the Kiev city center immediately followed by an armed insurrection which overthrew the government.  Predictably, Poland, France and Germany did not object.  I won't recount all of the events which happened since this infamous day, but I think that it is important to look at what has changed in a year.  I think that it also makes sense to compare what I had predicted might happen with what actually happened simply to see if a person if a person with no access to any classified data and who is using only "open sources" for his analysis could have predicted what happened or if this was all a huge and totally unpredictable surprise.

So let's look at my predictions in a chronological order.

November 30th, 2013: in "The Gates of Hell are Opening for the Ukraine"

The supposedly "pro-Russian" Eastern Ukrainians 

They have no vision, no ideology, no identifiable future goal.  All they can offer is a message which, in essence, says "we have no other choice than sell out to the rich Russians rather than to the poor European" or "all we can get from the EU is words, the Russians are offering money".  True.  But still extremely uninspiring, to say the least.

The future of Yanukovich

I am beginning to fear that this will all explode into a real and very dangerous crisis for Russia.  First, I am assuming that the the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will eventually prevail, and that Yanukovich will either fully complete his apparent "zag" and reverse his decision, or lose power.  One way or another the the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will, I think, prevail.  There will be more joyful demonstrations, fireworks and celebrations in Kiev, along with lots of self-righteous back-slapping and high-fiving in Brussels, and then the gates of Hell will truly open for the Ukraine.

The real risks for Russia

Being drawn into the inevitable chaos and violence with will flare up all over the Ukraine (including the Crimean Peninsula), stopping or, at least, safely managing a likely flow of refugees seeking physical and economic safety in Russia and protecting the Russian economy from the consequences of the collapse of Ukrainian economy.  Russia will have to do all that while keeping its hands off the developing crisis inside the Ukraine as it is absolutely certain that the Eurobureaucrats and the Ukrainian nationalists will blame Russia for it all.  The best thing Russia could do in such a situation would be to leave the Ukrainians to their private slugfest and wait for one side or the other to prevail before trying to very carefully send out a few low-key political "feelers" to see if there is somebody across the border who has finally come to his/her senses and is capable and ready to seriously begin to rebuilt the Ukraine and its inevitable partnership with Russia and the rest of the Eurasian Union.  As long as that does not happen Russia should stay out, as much as is possible.

Sarajevo on the Dniepr

Right now, all the signs are that the Ukraine is going down the "Bosnian road" and that things are going to get really ugly.

It is hard to tell, but my sense is that when the local authorities in the southeastern Ukraine threaten not to accept any regime change in Kiev they probably do really mean it.  This very much reminds me of the repeated warnings of the Bosnian-Serbs that they would not accept to live in an Islamic state run by an rabid fanatic like Itzebegovich.  At the time, and just like today, nobody took these warnings seriously and we all know how that ended.  The big difference between Bosnia and the Ukraine is first and foremost one of dimensions: Bosnia has an area of 19,741 square miles and a population of 3,791,622 while the Ukraine has an area of 233,090 square miles and a population of 44,854,065.  That is a huge difference which make a direct foreign intervention a much more complicated endeavor. 

And Russia in all that?

I can only repeat that Russia should stay out of whatever happens in the Ukraine.  The Russian government should prepare for an influx of refugees and the Russian military should be placed on high alert to avoid any provocations or cross-border violence.  A special goal for Russia should be to use all the means possible to avoid any violence on the Crimean Peninsula because of the presence of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol which can find itself in the position of the 14th Army in Transdniestria when it simply had not other choice than to get involved due to the high number of officers with relatives living in the republic.  If, God forbid, the nationalist try to militarily take over the Crimean Peninsula or Sevastopol I don't see how the Black Sea Fleet could stay uninvolved - that is simply impossible and this is why that situation needs to be avoided at all costs.

January 26th, 2014:  Yanukovich's latest move might make a partition of the Ukraine unavoidable:

The partition of the Ukraine is inevitable

This has, of course, not been reported in the western Ziomedia, but the eastern Ukraine is now also bubbling with political actions.  To make a long story short, the folks in the southeastern Ukraine have no desire whatsoever to let folks like Iatseniuk, Klichko or Tiagnibok rule over them.  In fact, several local assembles - including the Parliament of Crimea - have adopted resolution calling on the President to restore law and order and warning that they would never accept a "regime change" in Kiev.

March 1st, 2014: Obama just made things much, much worse in the Ukraine - now Russia is ready for war 

Russia is ready for war

Something absolutely huge has just happened in Russia: the Russian Council of the Federation, the equivalent of the US Senate, has just UNANIMOUSLY passed a resolution allowing Putin to use Russian armed forces in the Ukraine, something the Duma had requested earlier.  Before the vote took place, Russian senators said that Obama had threatened Russia, insulted the Russian people and that they demanded that Putin recall the Russian ambassador to the USA.  I have never seen such a level of outrage and even rage in Russia as right now.   I hope and pray that Obama, and his advisers, stop and think carefully about their next step because make no mistake about that RUSSIA IS READY FOR WAR.

April 23rd, 2014: The US plan for the Ukraine - a hypothesis

The US will try to force Russia to intervene in the Donbass

The eastern Ukraine is lost no matter what. So the junta in Kiev have to pick on of the following options:

a) Let the eastern Ukraine leave by means of referendum and do nothing about it.
b) Let the eastern Ukraine leave but only after some violence.
c) Let the eastern Ukraine leave following a Russian military intervention.

Clearly, option 'a' is by far the worst.  Option 'b' is so-so, but option 'c' is very nice.  Think of it:  this option will make it look like Russia invaded the Eastern Ukraine and that the people there had no say about it.  It will also make the rest of the Ukraine rally around the flag.  The economic disaster will be blamed on Russia and the Presidential election of May 25th can be canceled due to the Russian "threat".  Not only that, but a war - no matter how silly - is the *perfect* pretext to introduce martial law which can be used to crack down on the Right Sector or anybody expressing views the junta does not like.  That is an old trick - trigger a war and people will rally around the regime in power.  Create a panic, and people will forget the real issues.

As for the USA - it also knows that the Eastern Ukraine is gone.  With Crimea and Eastern Ukraine gone - the Ukraine has exactly *zero* value to the Empire, to why not simply use it as a way to create a new Cold War, something which would be much more sexy that the Global War on Terror or the really old War on Drugs.  After all, if Russia is forced to intervene militarily NATO will have to send reinforcements to "protect" countries like Poland or Latvia just in case Putin decides to invade all of the EU.

Bottom line - the freaks in power in Kiev and the USA *know* that the eastern Ukraine is lost for them, and the purpose of the imminent attack is not to "win" against the Russian-speaking rebels or, even less so, to "win" against the Russian military, it is to trigger enough violence to force Russia to intervene.  In other words, since the East is lost anyways, it is much better to lose it to the "invading Russian hordes" than to lose it to the local civilian population.

So the purpose of the next attack will not be to win, but to lose.  That the Ukrainian military can still do.

Two things can happen to foil this plan:

1) The Ukrainian military might refuse to obey such clearly criminal orders (and becoming a target of the Russian military might help some officers make the correct "purely moral" choice).
2) The local resistance might be strong enough to draw out such an operation and have to come to a grinding halt.

Ideally, a combination of both.

So let's summarize the above:

1. Yanukovich will be overthrown.  Check
2. The Donbass will rise up.  Check
3. The Ukraine will be partitioned.  Check
4. A civil war will break out.  Check
5. The US will try to pull Russia in. Check
6. Russia will protect Crimea.  Check
7. Russia will say out of the Donbass.  Check
8. Russia will have to deal with refugees.  Check
9. The US/NATO will not intervene like in Bosnia.  Check
10. The Ukrainian economy will collapse. Check

There is one point which I did really get wrong: the people of Novorussia.  I saw them as very passive, interested only in getting paid (in Hrivnas or Rubles - doesn't matter) and with very little Russian national identity.  Here I got it very wrong, but in my defense I would say that the Russian identity of people of the Donbass was awaken by the huge military assault of Ukrainian military and by the clearly russophobic and neo-Nazi rethoric and policies of the junta.  But setting aside the motivations of the Novorussians, I did predict that the Donbass would rise up, and it did.  In fact, it looks to me like my predictions resulted in a score of 10 out of 10.

My point is not to congratulate myself (I sincerely wish my pessimistic predictions would have turned out wrong), but to demonstrate that anybody armed with a) basic knowledge of Russia and the Ukraine b) access to open sources information c) basic common sense could have made all of these predictions.

There are, however, also events which I completely failed to foresee: the amazing inability of the Ukrainian military to get anything done.  On July 1st, 2014, in a post entitled "Novorussia - Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle" I wrote:

The worst which can happen is that a lot of Novorussian defenders get killed, that the towns of Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Krasnyi Liman and others will get basically flattened and most of their inhabitants killed, that the road between Donetsk and Lugansk gets cut-off by the Ukies and that Ukie forces enter deep inside these two cities.
I have to be honest here, there is a pretty good chance that all of the above will happen in the next 24 hours.
If that happens, I would like to remind you all that entering into a city is one thing, taking control of it is quite another.  Think Beirut, think Grozny, think Baghdad, think Fallujah, think Gaza, think Bint Jbeil.  Even if Poroshenko announces that Donetsk and Lugansk have "fallen", this will be only a empty statement on par with Dubya's "mission accomplished".  What will *really* happen is that the type of warfare taking place will change.  Not only will it change, but the new (urban) type of warfare will almost completely negate the current huge advantage in aviation, artillery and armor of the Ukie side.  So if these cities "fall" - please do not despair.
I hope that Novorussians will be able to resist the Ukie attack, but I also know that by all accounts the kind of firepower the junta is using now is truly huge - we are dealing with a merciless and massive attack with everything the junta could muster and we have to accept that the Novorussian Defense Forces might have to retreat deeper into the cities or even go underground.  While heroic for sure, it is not smart to stay in the open when your enemy is using Smerch and Uragan MRLS against you or even the building you are in.  During the first Chechen war the Chechen retreated deeply inside Grozny and did not even bother defending the outskirts, in part because the city center buildings were far stronger than the flimsy houses in the suburbs.  I never studied the layout of the cities of Lugansk and Donetsk, but if they are typical of the way the Soviets liked to build, then retreating into the city center and giving up the suburbs would probably make sense.
The first defensive option is to let the Ukies enter the suburbs and then cut them off, envelop (surround) them, and then attack them.  If that works, great!  But if the Ukies clear the way with massive sustained strikes and flatten their way in, then it will become necessarily to switch to "plan B" and retreat deeper into the cities.  If the Ukie advance is multi-pronged and too fast, or if the city center defenses were not adequately prepared (for whatever reason), then plan "C" is to go more or less underground and switch to an active mobile defense centered on short but intense ambushes followed by immediate retreats.

What really happened took my by complete surprise: initially the Ukrainian forces did move in, but soon they were bogged down and then gradually surrounded by the Novorussians.  In fact, both during the junta's summer offensive and during it's winter offensive the Novorussians succeeded in crushing the Ukrainian forces even in open terrain: steppes, hills, fields and forests.  The other amazing thing which happened is that for the first time in the past 200 years there were more combatants killed on the Ukrainian side than civilians.  The German intelligences sources estimate the number of victims of this war at about 50'000.  That figure sure makes sense to me.  That kind of outcome and these kinds of figures can only be explained by a huge, truly immense, difference in combat capabilities between the junta forces and the Novorussians.  Unimpressed as I was by the Novorussian behavior in February-March I failed to imagine that this rather passive and peaceful folk would turn into formidable combatants who would so radically defeat a vastly superior force (at least on paper), not once, but twice. Even as late as October 24th, in a post entitled "What could the next Junta offensive against Novorussia look like?" I again failed to predict the almost immediate defeat of the junta's winter offensive. I wrote:

What the Ukies are preparing is rather obvious. They will pick several key axes of attack along which they will unleash a massive artillery attack. This fire preparation will serve to prepare for a push by Ukrainian armored units (this time around we can expect the Ukrainian infantry to properly defend their tanks and not the other way around). The Ukrainians will not push deep into Donetsk or Lugansk, but rather they will try to, again, cut-off and surround Donetsk in a pincer attack and then negotiate some kind of quasi-surrender by the Novorussians. At most, they will try to enter a few important suburbs. I don't expect much action around Luganks - Donetsk is far more exposed.  Now, if I am correct and this is what happens, then please understand and remember this: the correct Novorussian response to this plan is to begin by retreating. It makes no sense whatsoever for the Novorussians to sit and fight from positions which are densely covered by Ukrainian artillery strikes. During the first Ukrainian attack I was dismayed to see how many people clearly did not understand the importance retreats in warfare. The "hurray-patriots" in particular were adamant that the initial Novorussian retreat was a clear sign that, as always, "Putin had betrayed Novorussia" (when the NAF went on a long and brilliant counter-offensive, these "hurray-patriots" fell silent for a while until the moment when Moscow stopped the NAF from seizing Mariupol, at which point they resumed chanting their mantra). The fact is that retreating against a superior forces is the logical thing to do, especially if you have had the time to prepare for a two, possibly, three echelon defense. While I do not know that for a fact, this is what I expect the Novorussians have been doing during all the length of the ceasefire: preparing a well-concealed and layered defense.  My hope and expectation is that once the JRF attacks the NAF will, again, carefully retreat, pull the JFR in, and then being to gradually degrade the attacking force. I particular hope that the Russians have finally send some much needed guided anti-tank weapons through the voentorg.

I was completely wrong.  Not only did the Novorussians stop the junta offensive more or less along the line of contact, but they went on the counter-offensive where they seized the heavily fortified Donetsk airport and then the entire Debaltsevo cauldron.  To say that I am extremely impressed is an understatement.

Military analyst always tend to be very cautious and assume the worst-case, and this is how it should be when lives are at stake, but I cannot explain away my complete failure to predict the Novorussian successes by some professional inclination.  What happened is that I got the Novorussian mentality completely wrong by assuming that their initial passivity was a predictor of their ability to fight.  A fundamentally flawed and mistaken assumption.

Still, I mostly got it right and so could have done all the advisors, analysts, area specialists, etc. working for the governments involved in that crisis and I bet you they did.  But either the politicians did not want to listen, or they wanted precisely that outcome.

The shameful and utterly disgusting fact is that everything that took place was completely predictable.  In fact, Putin, Lavrov and many more Russians officials *did* try to tell everybody that the Ukrainian people were cheerfully waltzing straight into a precipice, but nobody was willing to listen.  Instead, western politicians blamed the Russians for everything, which is just about the most intellectually dishonest and hypocritical thing they could have done.

The next Ukie president?

In one year an entire country was destroyed, tens of thousands of people were murdered and millions are now left with nothing not even hope: the Ukraine is a failed state, having now gone through Dmitri Orlov's "five stages of collapse".  Kiev is in the hands of a regime of incompetent Nazi freaks and the only alternative to them looks even worse.

Make no mistake, if the Donbass is now probably safe from any future junta attacks, the risks for the rest of the rump-Ukraine are still huge and an even bigger bloodbath could happen next.

What is evident is that Poroshenko is a "goner": this sad buffoon promised peace to the Ukrainian people and instead he gave them a year long bloodbath culminating in a strategic defeat which cost the Ukrainians about half of their more or less combat capable forces.  The only thing which keeps Poroshenko in power now is the political support of the USA and the political recognition by the EU and Russia.  But the rest of the freaks in power don't care one bit about the EU or Russia and I predict that they will try to eject him at the first possibility.  When I look at list of freaks likely to succeed Poroshenko I get a knot in my stomach: if Poroshenko was a political prostitute and a spineless, incompetent imbecile, he was at least not clinically insane.  Most of his likely successors are.  As for Iats or Turchinov, I personally think that they are demoniacally possessed which is arguably even worse than being clinically insane.

In conclusion I will just say that if I believe that all the horrors of the past year were fully avoidable, I also believe that the horrors of the next, upcoming, year are not: the Ukraine has plunged over the cliff and is now heading for the very same future as Libya (another western "success story").  I hope that I am wrong and that I am missing something crucial, but I personally do not see any way to stop the implosion of the rump-Ukraine and my advise to anybody still living there would be to get out while you can.

In them meantime in Moscow there was a "anti-Maidan" demonstration planned for 10'000 people.  35'000-50'000 showed up to say "we will not forget, we will not forgive" and "no Maidan in Russia".  This anti-Maidan movement which was just formed very recently has a very bright political future because after watching the horrors right across their border and accepting close to a million refugees from the Ukraine, the vast majority of Russians want nothing to do with a Maidan-like event in Russia.  Combine that with the still 80%+ popularity of Putin in spite of western sanctions, and you will see that Russia is safe from the kind of events which happened in Kiev a year ago.

The virus which killed the Ukraine will act as a vaccine for Russia.

The Saker

Novorussian and Ukrainian POWs

20.02.2015 Ukrainian crisis news. War in Ukraine, Donbass, Kiev, Europe, Russia, USA

The EU says "no thanks!" to Poroshenko

Good news today - the EU declined the goofy idea of "EU peacekeepers" in the Ukraine.

Here is the original article in German:

http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/2015/02/20/eu-kommission-lehnt-polizei-einsatz-in-der-ukraine-ab/

This is the Google machine translation:

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&u=http%3A%2F%2Fdeutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de%2F2015%2F02%2F20%2Feu-kommission-lehnt-polizei-einsatz-in-der-ukraine-ab%2F&edit-text=

Thank God!

Cheers,

The Saker

Two Kazzura videos about Ukrainian POW

Hezbollah Secretary General Nasrallah: "The game is over in Syria"

Full speech delivered by Hizbullah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah during the memorial anniversary of the Resistance Leader Martyrs held in Sayyed Ashuhada Compound on February 16, 2015.

 
I take refuge in Allah from the stoned devil. In the Name of Allah, The Compassionate, The Most Merciful. Peace be upon the Seal of Prophets, our Master and Prophet, Abi Al Qassem Mohammad, on his chaste and pure Household, on his chosen companions and on all messengers and prophets.

Peace be upon you and Allah's mercy and blessings.

First, I would like to welcome you all in this dear and solemn occasion - the anniversary of the Leader Martyrs.

However, allow me first to tackle a really grave incident. I find myself obliged to express our as well as your strong condemnation of the brutal and savage crime perpetrated by the Takfiri Daesh organization against the oppressed Egyptian workers in Libya. This crime cannot be tolerated or bore by the mind, heart, conscience, religion or humanity. In your name, we extend our condolences to their oppressed and deemed-weak families, the Egyptian people, the Egyptian government, and the Coptic Church. We also express our consolation and deep sorrow for this calamity which afflicted them. In fact, it afflicted us all - Islam and Christianity, Muslims and Christians, and every human being who has a mind, a conscience, and an intact nature. We will return to this topic again in the course of the speech.

First, I would like to talk about the occasion and the act of commemorating this occasion. Then, I will talk a little about the Lebanese affairs before making a general overview and a general stance on the situation of the region.

Every year, on this very day, together we mark the anniversary of the Leader Martyrs, the family of leaders, Martyr Sayyed Abbass Mussawi - our Secretary General, leader, master, beloved, and inspirer -, his well-educated, resisting wife Martyr Sayyeda Um Yasser, and his small child Hussein, the Sheikh of the Islamic Resistance Martyrs - His Eminence Martyr Sheikh Ragheb Harb, and the senior jihadi Leader Martyr Hajj Imad Moghniyeh who are the symbol of our steadfastness and victory. We mark their anniversary for our sake and our good and not theirs. We mark their anniversary to teach our children, grandchildren and future generations. We commemorate this occasion so that the near past which we lived and partook in making remains connected to the present and overlooking the future.

This period of time must remain in our minds - we who have lived this era -, and it must dwell in the minds of our children, grandchildren, and the generations to come.

This period of time extends from the establishment of the State of "Israel" in 1948, the wars which were staged later in 1967 and 1973, the events that took place in Lebanon, the resistance announced by the Palestinian people, the resistance announced later on by His Eminence Sayyed Mussa Sadre (May Allah return him back safe and sound along with both his companions), Camp David Agreement, the divine and historic victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran which took place in like these days under the leadership of His Eminence Imam Khomeini (May Allah sanctify his secret), the "Israeli" invasion in 1982, and the post-invasion era to our day including the wars, confrontations, events, and conspiracies.

This era is pregnant with events and development, and no one - neither we nor our children or the generations to come - can approach the present and the challenges of the day in a logical, objective, scientific, intact, and sound way apart from all of this past and the equations and achievements made: the facts and illusions, logic and lunacy, desperate bargains and sound options, waiting a mirage that did not and will never come true and waiting for victories made by the determination, sacrifices, tears, blood, aspirations, and pains of men and women. This time era with all what it comprises represents a great humanistic, fiducial, cultural, and jihadi school for our people and nation.

These leader martyrs were among its most prominent figures and leaderships and its martyred witnesses. Second, we always and all year long need to resort to them. We need to turn to Sayyed Abbass, Um Yasser, Sheikh Ragheb, and Hajj Imad as ideals to follow. We need to learn from them to abstain from this world when it ornaments to us its vanities: prestige, wealth, and luxury. We need to learn from them to be modest and even humble when we become strong. We need to learn from them to be strong when we confront quaking and hurricane-like calamities. We need to learn from them wisdom when we are fought with ordeals and seditions that disperse minds and insight. We take from them and are inspired by their ardor and zeal when tired, by their boldness when hesitating, and by their unlimited sacrifices when the position requires that. We learn from them to trust in Allah, our nation, our people, ourselves, and our resistance fighters when people feel frustrated as hardships, difficulties, and challenges target them from all sides. We take from them hope, confidence, and insight. As you heard a while ago, when "Israel" was occupying our land, Sayyed Abbass, Sheikh Ragheb, and Hajj Imad first and later on expressed their vision that "Israel" would not only withdraw from our land but also will be eliminated from the world. That is at a time "Israel" was occupying our land, our men and women were in prison, and we were weak and "Israel" was strong. As such, we take from them a clear vision and intact insight, confidence and hope, and most importantly we learn from them to be faithful and loyal, to have tolerance, to be up to the level of the tough and difficult current challenges we are facing, and to be competent at shouldering the responsibility of making a decent, noble, and prideful future that befits our people, homeland, and nation. Thus we always take pains to talk about them, their biography, their morals, their conduct, their achievements, their jihad, and their sacrifices so that we as well our children, grandchildren, and the future generations come to know and learn.

This is what we must take pains to achieve when we broadcast the names, photos, biographies, and wills of all the martyrs every day and around the year. That's because they truly present an integrated, intellectual jihadi school which we must introduce and with which we must be acquainted. For 32 years by now, a generation of young men who were 18, 19, 20, 23, and 25 at most by that time and who were scholars and fighters whether men or women took the initiative and shouldered the responsibility. Some of them were martyred in the different stages of the path.

Many of our veteran cadres were mighty in the fields of jihad and enduring difficulties and wounds and then died of a long struggle with illness the last of whom was a dear leader of the pioneer Resistance leaders late Hajj Mustafa Shehadeh (May Allah have mercy on him). Some were detained and suffered from the cuffs of detention. Some were wounded and are still suffering from their injuries. Some are still moving in this path holding their blood on their palms. The slogan held by this first generation which included Sayyed Abbass, Sheikh Ragheb, and Hajj Imad, and Hajjeh Um Yasser is {Among the Believers are men who have been true to their Covenant with Allah: othem some have completed their vow, and some atill wait: but they have never changed their determination in the least}.

Among the young men today are children of the first generation who in their turn pledged, lived up to their pledge, and adhered to their pledge, and many of them passed away as martyrs the last of whom were those who were killed in the "Israeli" aggression in Quneitra.

The children of the first generation were also senior partakers in making victory. The anniversary of the leader martyrs comes this year with evidence on what I am saying. The son of Leader Martyr Imad Moghniyeh - Jihad - stood on this podium to pledge his allegiance and willingly declare his affiliation, identity, and option. No one obliged him to do so. He could have continued his university education. He was a young gentle man. His life and his future were before him. The entire world was before him. However, the son of Hajj Imad carried Hajj Imad's spirit, soul, knowledge, and love. He abandoned all of that. Where did he go? He went to Golan and to Quneitra where his life was sealed in martyrdom. As such are the martyrs the sons of martyrs. The blood of martyr Jihad and his brethrens in Quneitra days ago forcefully revived the anniversary of the martyrdom of Hajj Imad Moghniyeh.

It brought him back to life again. At that moment we felt as if Hajj Imad was martyred anew. People had this emotional, spiritual, and moral feeling. The people sympathized with the incidents what brought this matchless, brilliant, and historic leader to the forefront of events again emphasizing that his memory and presence is still the most forceful and supreme in the conscience of the friend and foe who is still haunted by the blood of Imad Moghniyeh and will always be haunted by the blood of Imad Moghniyeh.

Brothers and sisters! On this great and dear day to us and in a show of loyalty to these leader martyrs and as responsible people, we tackle some issues that concern us in Lebanon and some issues that concern us also in the region.

First I will tackle some Lebanese affairs.

First: We are in the month of February in which many incidents took place especially on February 14th. On this occasion, I extend my condolences and consolation to the family of Martyr Premier Rafiq Hariri, his lovers, his party, and his supporters for the sorrowful event of his martyrdom that shook Lebanon and the region, and the repercussions of which are still taking place to our very day. I also extend my consolations to all the families and lovers of all the martyrs - whether men and women - who fell on that day in that painful, sorrowful, and very dangerous incident.

Second: Today and before the danger of terror that is threatening Lebanon and the region, we in Hizbullah support the call for devising a national anti-terror strategy. I believe that the Lebanese political forces and Lebanese leaderships may agree on an enemy that is terrorism. That may not be as difficult as agreeing on a defense strategy in face of "Israel" for, unfortunately, we disagree over another enemy, which is "Israel". Anyway, we support the call for devising a national strategy against terrorism. Now how are we to achieve that?

Now I received the result of whether there was shooting in the air or not as I started my speech. It is supposed that in the compound you haven't heard anything. I thank all our honorable people in Dahiyeh, Beirut, and all regions for abiding by our call and appeal. This is always expected from you, and you always live up to our expectations. We must always cooperate, and Inshallah we will come to an end with this phenomenon so that we don't find ourselves obliged to issue a statement for every ceremony and request from you not to shoot in the air.

We must cooperate as far as this issue is concerned. It is an old tradition in Lebanon to shoot in the air in funerals of martyrs, martyr processions, and in the various occasions, and we must cooperate on the media, cultural, and political levels to put an end to it Inshallah. Many thanks to all those who answered our call and adhered to our recommendations. I am very thankful to you all.

So we are with devising a national anti-terror strategy. Now who is to work on this? It is the government. The parliament presents an initiative. A national unity session may be held. This needs follow up. The mechanism needs discussion. Anyway, in principle, we call for that, and we support that.

The third point has to do with the security plan in Bekaa. We renew our ultimate support for the plan which we believe came late. The security plan must continue and must be activated. So it must not last for a week or two or a month or two. The Bekaa region has been suffering from thieves, criminals, corruptive people who kidnap people to receive ransoms, and outlaws who terrorize people.

We hope that this era had come to an end Inshallah. Between parentheses, I say that there were popular requests that we - Hizbullah, Amal Movement, and the political forces in Bekaa - assume this responsibility but this was not a right step. Here I am telling our people in Bekaa that this is not right and will not be right in the future.

What is right is that the state is the most able and the most competent side of assuming this responsibility which is its obligation in fact. All of us must support and back the army, the security forces, and the government in controlling the security situation. Thus the security plan needs follow up. It was said that the wanted fled. Well that is good. Now let the army and the security forces be aware and serious so that they do not come back. As long as they are away from the region, the region will be free of thieves, criminals, corruptive people, and killers. As such no such things will be tolerated in the future.

Alongside the security plan in Bekaa, two other things are needed. I will only mention topics so that I can cover all the points. The first point is the development plan in Bekaa. If the state wants to control that area, it is not enough to dispatch the army and the security forces. It must develop the area: a hospital, a school, roads, water, electricity, job opportunities and anything possible so that these honorable people live in dignity and stay and stick to their land. The north and especially Akkar needs development and not only security.

The second point is resolving the problem of tens of thousands of people who are wanted for trivial, minor or old offenses. This issue is still unresolved, and it must be addressed after all. It is not right that tens of thousands remain wanted and are arrested on check points for very trivial reasons.

There is a third point which is lurking and upcoming. I will not tackle it in details. I will leave it for another occasion. I will only mention it because we are talking about Bekaa. This will take place when the snow melts. Today on the other side of the eastern mountain range, and in the hills and mountains of Arsal, Daesh and al-Nusra are found. Daesh extends from Libya to all the regions it wishes to be found in until reaching the barren mountains of Arsal. Well, now the mountains are covered with snow. The windy weather and weather conditions have limited or prevented confrontations. However, when the snow melts, there is something waiting to take place there. The state as well as the Lebanese people must decide on how to deal with this threat and danger on the hills and mountains that intimidates the villages and everyone. Man must take a position. When we tackle the regional issues we will return to this topic again. These can easily be defeated but that requires a decision and a national will.

We are coming to that stage, and we must take a position accordingly. Now we are in the month of February. There are storms with many names, and it has become difficult for us to memorize the name of each storm. There is snow, and it is freezing cold. Our brave men are on the top of mountains of elevations between 2000 and 2500 meters. On this occasion, we must renew our tribute to the officers of the Lebanese Army and the security forces as well as to the Resistance men. Also on the other side there are the officers and soldiers of the Syrian Arab Army and the Resistance men. These men in that area are preventing terrorist attacks and preventing dispatching bomb-laden vehicles to the various Lebanese regions. On the Day of the Leader Martyrs, we give all our regards and high-esteem for their patience, determination, and steadfastness in face of storms and freezing snow.

Fourth: On the anniversary of the understanding between Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement which also took place in February, the importance of this great achievement is manifested more and more day after day. Its consequences are also made clear on the political situations in Lebanon and even in the region. That's because one of the most important consequences of the understanding is the impact of the stance related to the Resistance which is a part of all the challenges, consequences, and victories of the region. We call for deepening and strengthening the relationship between Hizbullah and the Free Patriotic Movement. We also call for making similar understandings on the national level. At that time, we dreamed that the very understanding would widen to include the others. Well, some clauses may be sensitive or there might be some pro forma protocols. Let's keep such clauses aside. Any two or three sides or movement may reach an understanding similar to this national understanding in which all of us may join.

So it would not hold the name of Hizbullah or the Free Patriotic Movement. We would rather be among those partaking in making it and inking it. It would be a whole new agreement that includes everything that closes ranks, achieves accord, addresses the dilemmas of dialogue, and ensures great national interests.

Fifth, as for presidential elections, we call for exerting internal efforts in this perspective as there is not any such internal effort in fact. No side is making any move except for remote or insignificant steps. Thus we call for resuming internal national efforts, and it is well known where, how, and with whom. So there is no need to go more into details. The concerned persons are well known. Again I tell all those who care for putting an end to vacuum and for remaking institutions in Lebanon: Do not wait for the changes in the region and foreign changes. Do not wait for the Iranian nuclear file or the US-Iranian talks or the Saudi-Iranian talks. Do not wait for anything in the region. On the contrary, the region is moving towards more crises and confrontations. New fronts are being opened. I will tackle the regional affairs later in my speech.

Previously, we used to say that no one is free enough to be bothered with us. In the future too, no one will be free to be preoccupied with us. So let's not let this vacuum stay for long. If we are serious and independent, sovereign, and a decision-maker in his bloc and can vote for the person of his choice as everyone of us claims to be, let's resume this internal national effort to resolve the issue of presidential elections.

Sixth, regarding the government, we support it and back it in resuming its work. This is a national need. In fact, the Lebanese have no other choice. The alternative is vacuum and forfeiture. I believe that no one agrees on this alternative. There are problems facing the work of the government; we must cooperate to resolve these problems. As for the issue of the mechanism of taking a decision, we will deal positively with some of the presented solutions. Some of these solutions are logical and appropriate, and we call on the forces partaking in the government to deal positively with this issue to overcome this crisis so that the government convene anew, resume its work, and assume its responsibilities.

Seventh, Hizbullah will continue the dialogue with the Future Movement Inshallah as we see that this dialogue has so far led to good and positive results within the ceilings of expectations set at the very beginning. That means from the very beginning, they and we knew the magnitude of expectations. Well, let's not handle this issue on platforms. The expectations are clear. The agenda is agreed upon. It is clear too, and it is within the expectations. Within the agenda, the results are good, and with the seriousness characterizing both sides, we hope we will reach a good and positive result that would be to the interest of Lebanon and all the Lebanese Inshallah. We will move forward in this dialogue. Well some people may bother us; others may be annoyed by the dialogue; some people still talk inappropriately. Still we along with our masses must tolerate and endure all of that to the interest of the country.

The last point on the domestic level has to do with us renewing our encouragement and support to any form of dialogue between any Lebanese political forces no matter under what title it comes or what results it may yield. Even if the results are humble, dialogue remains the best option before us as Lebanese.

This is as far as Lebanon is concerned. Let's move now to the region though through a Lebanese prelude. There is a critical and crucial point which I hope we all would contemplate on. For decades by now and all through the stage we lived and passed through to our very day, there has always been a dispute in Lebanon. There are two logics which you hear in ceremonies and occasions.

The first logic says that we want Lebanon apart from the region and apart from the events taking place in the region. It is the policy of isolating it from what is taking place in the entire region. This policy is against interfering in the affairs of the region. This logic is nice regardless of whether those saying this are committing themselves to it or not. We are talking in theory. In theory, there is a logic that goes against interfering in what is taking place in the region whether on the political, media, or military level. This is the policy of staying apart. Lebanon cannot tolerate interfering. Lebanon's conditions are complicated and difficult. Thus Lebanon must remain away, and it must not be hurled in any of the axes. I reiterate that some sides - no matter who they may be - say so though in practice that may not be the case. That's because many sides in the country may or may not be parts of an axes. They may or may not be interfering in the affairs of the region. This is another field of study.

The other logic theoretically says that is impossible. The logic you are talking about is nice. This Arabic composition you are making is nice; however allow me to say that it is unrealistic. The true status quo, the land, the field, history, geography, demography, security, peace, and livelihood say against that. That is similar to natural phenomena. When a snowy storm is approaching you can't stand in its face and tell it: Cool down. We are Lebanese. We want to stay isolated from storms, snow, and rain. We have our own snow, our own rain, and our own climate. We are a piece from Heaven, and we have nothing to do with anyone else. Well how is this translated into action? Is such logic realistic or right?

Whether the Lebanese like it or not, Lebanon has always been effected by what takes place in the region: the establishment of the state of "Israel" and the usurp of Palestine have had great repercussions on Lebanon and the region. All what takes place in the region has its repercussions on Lebanon. No one can say: Hold on. We cannot tolerate. We do not want to be influenced by your repercussions. Here we have to say. Here one may be logical or illogical. What is the truth? What is the true situation? This is the truth. On the contrary, Lebanon today is under the impact of what is taking place in the region more than in any time in the past. Today the destiny of Lebanon is not made in Lebanon only. Now the fate of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Egypt, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Yemen among other countries is made in the region as a region. No fate is made in one country alone. The region has been molded anew. The entire region was shocked and scattered. It is now being recreated from scratch. Whoever wants to decide the fate of Lebanon must partake in making the fate of the region, and whoever is absent in making the fate of the region is in fact telling others to make our fate as we cannot do anything. No, today the fate of the states in the region is made in the region. Even more, the fate of the world is now being made in the region.

In a while we will start talking about Daesh, Libya, Italy, and Europe. However now and in the light of this labor pain, the fate of entities will be determined. Some entities may continue or stop to exist. On light of this labor pain, some people will continue or stop to exist. Will things remain as such or will there be a kind of rejoining or disintegration, or are we heading to years and decades of destruction? What is the future? All of this is being made in the region? States and peoples in the region as well as the entire world are being influenced by that. No one can say I am Lebanese or whatever. That is unrealistic. The issue is not intellectual luxury or political luxury. The fate of our people and of our country is at stake. Our dignity and the future of our generations are at stake.

In this framework and as a joke I say that in the past, we faced the problem of convincing some Lebanese that we are part of the Arab region, the Levant, the Middle East, and the Arab-"Israeli" struggle when having discussions with them. They used to say that is not the case; Lebanon is an island in the Pacific Ocean. We live at ease, we are not influenced by anything, and we are not concerned with anything. Their stance today has taken a more negative course because we now have to convince them that Lebanon is part of Planet Earth, not of Mars. Today the Globe - the entire Globe - is influenced by what is taking place in the region. This logic has, in fact, always been a point of disagreement that used to cause further disagreements. Well, we approach this issue with such a mentality because we believe that the fate of Lebanon, the fate of the people of Lebanon, the future of Lebanon, the will of Lebanon, the security of Lebanon, the ability to live in Lebanon, and the economy of Lebanon cannot be isolated from the developments and events taking place in the region. When I talk about the region, I will talk in general and not in details.

However, still I have a brief comment which I find appropriate to say. To those who criticize our stance from what is taking place in Bahrain for example saying that such a stance harms the relation with a dear fraternal country called Bahrain I say:

Indeed, Bahrain is a dear fraternal country exactly like any other Arab country is for us. I accept that they criticize our stance, and they have the right to criticize our stance only if they abide by this policy - the policy that goes against interfering in the affairs of others. But that is not accepted from those who interfere in the affairs of another Arab country the relation of which with Lebanon is by far more important and more critical than Lebanon's relations with Bahrain. I mean Syria.

Security, economy, path, horizons, sea, water, people and families are common between Lebanon and Syria. Since the beginning of the events in Syria up till now, some have interfered and even been part of the battle on Syria and its government, regime, army, and the choice of a wide section of its people, and they were part of the media and political war against it. Arms were led in to Syria, and money was paid and is still. Those acting as such pertaining to Syria have no right to criticize our stance on Bahrain. After all, what did we do as far as Bahrain is concerned? We issued a political position. We did not send arms to Bahrain. We did not instigate violence in Bahrain. We did not call for toppling the regime in Bahrain. On the contrary, we always used to back the callers for the peaceful movement, to call for dialogue and reform in Bahrain, to reject violence, and to avoid violent reactions and suppression practiced by the regime.

The stance we took must be met by appreciation by the deaf and blind government of Bahrain. It must be appreciated by everyone who cares for any Arab country. That's because when a political side in any Arab country addresses another Arab country saying:

Your demands are rightful. Resort to peaceful means. Do not head to violence. Go towards dialogue. Accept any settlement.

Such a stance should be highly evaluated. However, because the government in Bahrain is afraid of any rightful word, it is frightened by any call believing {that every cry is against them}. As such it becomes tense and starts threatening you. By what? By expelling the Lebanese from Bahrain. This is the means resorted to by the weak and feeble authorities. Such authorities act as such. They threaten that they will expel the Lebanese in Bahrain if so and so carry on talking in such a way.

Anyway, we are now in the month of February which also witnesses the anniversary of the peaceful, civil, and civilized uprising of the people of Bahrain whom we salute and hail for their patience, steadfastness, awareness, and wisdom.

So whoever gives advice and preaches must first observe them himself. Then we can talk together if we are to observe them or not and whether what we are doing is right or wrong.

I will tackle the situation in the region besides the "Israeli" threat in a couple of words. We will talk about what is new as we do not want to reiterate what is old. The threat and danger represented by the Takfiri current with its most prominent form - Daesh - has been forcefully evident in new fields and domains.

Previously we have said that this is not a threat to some governments only but rather to all governments. It is not a threat to some regimes only but rather to all regimes, entities, peoples, and armies. It is not a threat to religious, or factional, or racial minorities. It is a threat to everyone.

We have said that very early. We also said that it is a threat to Islam as a religion and as a divine mission. Since that day to this day, all the events that took place assert this concept that we have talked about together very early.

Now, the entire world has admitted that yes the Takfiri current under the name of Daesh is posing a threat to the security of the region and to world security. Does anyone in this world argue this point? There is only "Israel" because it does not consider Daesh a threat or a danger. You have seen "Israeli" War Minister Yaalon making an inspection visit to Golan a couple of days ago and saying that Daesh does not pose a threat or danger. He also said that al-Nusra does not pose any threat or danger.

Well, "Israel" alone considers that Daesh and al-Nusra do not pose a threat. Still all world countries consider - even if apparently - that Daesh poses a threat and a danger to the security of the region and to world security. Later on we will talk about al-Nusra.

"Israel" has the right to say that Daesh does not form a threat because all what Daesh had made so far and is still making absolutely serves the interests of "Israel" whether Daesh is aware of that or not.

What is taking place now? New fronts are being opened. There are new forms of brutality and criminality they brought along from Hollywood or from other places. The way in which the Jordanian pilot Maaz Kassabah was burnt is catastrophic. The way in which the oppressed deemed-week Egyptian workers were slaughtered which we saw on TV screens is disgraceful and frightful. Hostages are being slaughtered in such a way. Even more, new fronts are being opened and new targets are being set.

Daesh has nothing to do in Palestine or in al-Quds.

That's why Yaalon says that Daesh forms no threat. In fact, the true and absolute target of Daesh is Mecca and Medina. I call on the brethrens in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to calm down a little. The absolute goal is Mecca and Medina. Today I watched that in the news. I am not very much sure whether new rulers were appointed today or whether they are talking about an old report. I am saying so to be precautious but what I heard today says that Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi - the Caliph of Daesh - appointed a prince on Mecca and ruler on Medina.

So the goal is Mecca and Medina and not al-Quds. It's because the caliphate of Daesh would not be completed without the Two Holy Shrines of
Mecca and Medina.

What did those who slaughtered the Egyptian Copts in Libya said? They said that their goal is Rome! Their options are very remote!

Mecca and Medina remain relatively nearer that Rome. They may say that we can go to Mecca and Medina, and from there we move through Jordan to Palestine. Still they want to go to Rome! What do they have to do in Rome?!

These are new wars and fronts. Whom are they serving? For whose interest are they fighting? Here and for the first time I dare to say: Consider the "Israeli" Mossad, the CIA, and the British intelligence. Previously, we did not pose the theory of a conspiracy. But now we say let's take that into consideration.

Everything that the Takfiri current and Daesh do serves "Israel", "Israel's" hegemony over the region, and the US hegemony over the region.

They are also provoking Europe. Imagine for example that a couple of days ago Italian Defense Minister said: We are ready to lead an international coalition against terrorism in Libya. Between parentheses we ask the Italian Defense minister: Why do you want to lead an international attack on terrorism in Libya?

Listen very well to the answer of the Italian Defense Minister. I hope that March 14 Bloc would hear the answer very well. It is because "terrorism is now only 350 kilometers away from the Italian border." She says only 350 kilometers.

The Defense Minister, Italy, and the European Union are civilized, and still they are thinking of staging a military action against Libya because terrorism is now 350 kilometers away. As for us, terrorism is on the barren mountains at the border, in al-Qseir and Qalamoun. Terrorism is on our hills and in bomb-laden cars. Still some parties are arguing whether I am right or wrong.

Before this status quo which is in fact not exaggerated, there is a truth called a true serious danger.

The threat was in Syria. Now it is in Syria and Iraq. It also reached Libya. Also in Sinaa they say that Ansar Beit Al Maqdes has pledged allegiance to Daesh or something of this sort. Similar things are taking place in other places too. Today in Tunisia, there is a state of full mobilization. In Yemen, a branch of al-Qaeda had pledged allegiance to Daesh Caliph and are proceeding and occupying camps in southern provinces in the country.

There is a true threat. They are slaughtering and killing. These are not films. They are producing true films. It is absolutely sure that their mind, spirit, and brutality come from Hollywood. This is the culture of Hollywood.

What is the culture of Hollywood? Is there anything other than killing and slaughtering? Is this from here, from the Orient, from Islam, from Christianity, from prophets, from the caliphs, from the companions of the Prophet, or from the Household of the Prophet (Peace be upon them)? God forbids. It is not from any of these.

The origin of what we are seeing now before our eyes on TV screens is clear. In face of this danger which is threatening everyone, we call on the peoples and the governments of the region to join efforts to confront this vast, dangerous, terrorist Takfiri threat.

I reiterate that we are all able to defeat this threat as well as to defeat those standing behind it whether the "Israeli" Mossad, the Americans or the English.

Brothers and sisters! The strategies followed by the international coalition and the international community are minor - that is if we thought good of them. If we thought bad of them, we wonder whether they really want to get rid of Daesh or not. Let's be serious. I will refer to this again in a separate clause. Thus the nation, the peoples of the nation, the governments, the scholars, the political parties, the resisting forces, and the armies are all concerned in confronting this threat which is the most dangerous threat except for the "Israeli" threat.

Thus I have a couple of clauses to say briefly.

Clause One: The intellectual, political, media, and field confrontation of this Takfiri current must be considered a kind of defense - a defense of Islam. It is not anymore a defense of a definite axis or regime or state or faction or sect or minority. They are threatening everyone. They are threatening Islam above all.

I hope that everyone understands very well what I am saying. Any conduct made by a Muslim who claims to be a Muslim that disagrees with human nature cannot be from Islam. It is impossible to be from Islam. Allah Al Mighty says {So set thou thy face steadily and truly to the Faith (establish) Allah's handiwork according to the pattern on which He has made mankind; no change (let there be) in the work (wrought) by Allah: that is the standard Religion}. This is the nature which does not change since Allah created man}.

From the very beginning to Doom's Day there is one and only one human nature. {That is the standard Religion}. The standard religion is the religion that agrees and is in harmony with human nature. Such deeds which sicken the minds, hearts, and spirits and which all humanity with its various and diversified doctrinal and political ideas, visions and directions loathes cannot be Islamic deeds or deeds pertaining to any religion.

So this battle is a battle in defense of Islam. And today, I will tell you with pride: As we form or consider ourselves part of this battle in face of this Takfiri current, we consider ourselves defending the Islam of Mohammad Bin Abdullah (Peace be upon him and his Household). We are not defending Shiites, Sunnites, this sect, or that sect.

Everyone knows that when the battle becomes a battle in defense of the religion of Allah Al Mighty and of the sanctities of Allah, then our sacrifices will have no limits, our patience will have no limits, our tolerance will have no limits, and our willingness to go to the end is with no limits as our Master Imam Abu Abdullah Al Hussein did in Karbala.

Here I am saying that we are doing so. I further call on everyone - on all Muslims - to defend their religion no matter if they are scholars, authorities, journalists, or authors. So arms are not a must. The worst deformation in human history for a divine religion is what Daesh is perpetrating now. No such thing ever took place in history.

Second: The entire world - or at least the states in our region which are living this threat and this danger - must tell some regional states which are still supporting Daesh with arms, money, facilities, and media that the game is over. Apparently such satellite channels may not seem to be defending Daesh. But if you listen carefully, you find that in fact they are defending Daesh. I am not going to explain this now. The game is over. The region, the peoples of the region, and the governments of the region will not be able to tolerate this level of criminality and brutality which is being perpetrated in the name of Islam against all the peoples of the region.

Third: This is a very important point. I will be frank and mention names. We must not fool ourselves or allow anyone to fool us by trying to differentiate between Daesh and al-Nusra Front. As we have always said in the past. I do not want to reiterate. They are one reality. They have the same essence, ideology, culture, spirit, goal, conduct, and goal. I hope that one of the Lebanese or the Arabs would explain to us the difference between al-Nusra and Daesh. How is Daesh a terrorist and al-Nusra Front rebels? I wish I can find someone especially in Lebanon who may explain this to us on the TV or when sitting with our brethrens.

We must not be fooled. They are the very current. Their dispute was organizational. It was over leadership. However, the outcome is one and the same. Thus today, there are calls to confront the Takfiri currents with no discrimination. That is true. This is a sound stance. As for Jordan, it cannot fight Daesh in Iraq and support al-Nusra Front in Syria. Some Gulf countries cannot partake in an international coalition to fight Daesh in Iraq while offering money, arms, capabilities, and facilities to al-Nusra Front. Al-Nusra is, in fact, the other face of Daesh. The entire current which poses a real threat must be confronted.

Fourth: The governments in the region and the states in the region must limit and address the ongoing struggles. We must help, and we must take initiatives too. Some may say that I am exaggerating in my theories. However, after all, we must be responsible when talking about this stage. What can we do or what can others do? I do not know. Today there are two priorities: The priority to confront the Zionist scheme which is proceeding in Palestine in demolishing houses and building settlements and in threatening Gaza and the region. The second priority is the Takfiri scheme which is threatening us all. Well, this must be a priority too. This means that we must be realistic in the other files too.

Some Arab countries, especially Gulf countries, must approach the region's problems in a different manner, because they are in the circle of danger. So do not {be led by arrogance to perpetrate more crimes}. Do not get agitated and nurture anger and grudge. Cool down and sit and contemplate. After all, in Iraq for example, the Iraqi people, the Iraqi troops, the Kurd troops, the Shiite as well as the Sunnite tribes fought Daesh and rendered it inactive. In fact, they prevented Daesh from reaching Kuwait. They prevented Daesh from reaching Saudi Arabia. Otherwise, its eyes are not on Baghdad only. Its eyes are on Mecca and Medina as we said before. So approach Iraq from another perspective.

Today in Iraq there is a political operation. The Shiites, Sunnites, and Kurds met one way or another. At times, there are some flaws. At times, crimes take place. However, instead of instigating sectarian and factional ordeals in Iraq through your satellite channels, do play an active role in keeping the Iraqis united together that they would be able to prevent Daesh from expanding again and to be able to confront and crush Daesh. The Iraqis are defending you as well as your thrones and oil.

You have to approach Iraq in a different way. Enough with your Sunnite-Shiite-sectarian grudge.

You also failed to achieve your goals in Yemen. Search for the reasons behind your failure after you have spent billions of dollars. Power is not found on financial corruption through buying consciences....

Still, you can approach Yemen in a different way. Today, there is a true popular revolution which cannot be ignored. In fact, this revolution is standing in face of al-Qaeda and Daesh that are threatening all of you. All of these documents talk about al-Qaeda's original scheme which was to control Yemen and Syria and thereof move to Mecca and Medina. O rulers of the Gulf. If you do not want to read, don't you have people who may read for you? Why don't you read a little?

Approaching Yemen is not to the effect of pushing Yemen towards an internal explosion or to the effect of instigating the Yemenis against each other or to the effect of seeking help from the Security Council in face of the Yemeni people or a large section of the Yemeni people. The approach must be peaceful and quiet. Ansarullah and its leadership are brave, wise, aware, and responsible enough to lead dialogue and make agreements. As such the entire situation would be under control. As for agitation and wrath, that would lead Yemen to unfavorable results, and the Gulf countries will pay the price for that because they will turn Yemen to a neighboring volcano and they will widen the field where Al Qaeda and Daesh act.

As for Bahrain, go and talk with Al Khalifa Monarchy. Let them calm down a little and act reasonably. Let them stop acting with suppression and open the gate for dialogue. Let them set the detainees free. The people in Bahrain want a settlement and reforms. Indeed some people in Bahrain do not accept what I am saying. But the majority does.

Let's move to Syria now. The game is over in Syria. The continuation fighting in Syria is just a stubborn act to the effect that some said a word and they want their word to be done even if all of Syria was ruined and casualties increased.

Be realistic in viewing the status quo in Syria. Open the gate for a political solution. Allow the opposition to partake in a settlement. Here I do not mean the Takfiri opposition which is not allowed to partake in a settlement. The regime is ready to partake in a settlement. Let's see if it's possible for people to calm down a little, sit together and address the affairs of the region. So we can create a situation that helps all sides to confront the danger that is threatening everyone.

Even in Lebanon, lift the veto on the presidential issue and allow the Lebanese to sit down and negotiate to reach an agreement over a president and over the entire composition in the country. What is the problem in that? In another word as far as this clause is concerned, do us a favor and allow the people reorganize their priorities and act accordingly.

Fifth: The peoples of the region and the governments of the region must not wait for an international strategy or a NATO strategy or an American strategy or anything of this sort.

They must take the initiative as we did in Syria, in Lebanon, in Iraq, and as initiatives are being taken in more than one Arab country. We must take the initiative to confront this current, and we must not allow it to expand, gain power, and become deep-rooted and the like.

Saying that America wants to get rid of Daesh is disputable. Who says that America wants to get rid of Daesh? Have a look at the status quo and see how it is to the interest of America under the pretext of America defending the states of the region. This is a conspiracy of regimes. They lowered the price of oil and opened the fire on themselves and on all their friends and foes.

It is robbing the oil of the region and the wealth of the region. Hundreds of billions of dollars are being robbed under the pretext of the burden of war of the international coalition troops. Through Daesh only, America is robbing our oil and our wealth.

America is exhausting us as well as our armies, peoples, states, and nerves.

Through Daesh, America is planting grudges and enmities which might not end in decades. It is ruining the entire region for its interest and for the interest of keeping "Israel" powerful, prominent, and protected.

Why is America in a hurry? In best cases, if America finds out that it wants to get rid of Daesh, it can still do that slowly and later on when the American presidential elections approach. So why should it get rid of Daesh now? When the American presidential elections are due, they would make several moves and hit Daesh so that the Democratic Party wins. So the knife of Daesh must remain on our neck - we the Iraqis, the Syrians, the Lebanese whom Daesh is at their borders in Qalamoun, Irsal barren mountains, the Egyptians, the Libyans, the Tunisians, the Yemenis, and all the peoples of the region - until the American presidential elections approach to know whether the Americans want to make any move in this perspective.

Brothers and sisters! Those who bet on the Americans are bargaining on a mirage. How do you bet on the very side which robs you, conspires against you, and had fabricated these and dispatched them to you? It is not allowed that we wait for the Americans or the international community. Act as the resistance acted.

The Resistance of Imam Sayyed Mussa Sadre, the resistance of the Lebanese, the Lebanese resistance, the national resistance, the Islamic resistance, the resistance of Sayyed Abbass, Sheikh Ragheb, and Hajj Abbass, the resistance in Lebanon, the resistance in Gaza, and the resistance in Palestine did not wait for a united Arab strategy or a united international strategy and still the resistance made victory.

Why are we to wait for the Americans? We will not wait for the Americans or the NATO. In Iraq, they did not wait. In Iraq, the religious authority, scholars, the government, the army, the security forces, and popular masses that included Shiites, Sunnites, Kurds, and tribes held arms and fought. So far, the Americans haven't handed them the arms they paid for beforehand. The arms and the ammunition come from Iran and from other sources.

They did not wait for anyone. They defeated Daesh in Diala Province; they defeated it in most provinces - Salaheddine and Jarf Sakher; now they are defeating it in Anbar; and they will defeat it in Mosel. Why not?

In Syria too, this is taking place. It is taking place every day with the good Daesh and the bad Daesh because they are both Daesh whether in al-Qseir, Qalamoun, or Irsal barren mountains.

So it is not allowed to wait for anyone. We must take the initiative. We must assume the responsibility. Thus I have something to say. You will find what I will say strange. It is in fact the conclusion we draw from this look over the situation of the region. I tell those who call on us to withdraw from Syria: I in my turn call on you to join us in going to Syria.

I further call on you to go to Iraq too. We did not talk about Iraq previously though we are humbly present there now in this first and critical stage. Let's go together to Iraq too.

They may say that I am going too far but I will say it anyway. Let's go to any place to confront this threat that is threatening our nation and our region because as such we will be defending Lebanon and the people of Lebanon. This is the way major powers, decent states, and strong armies in the world act.

However, we will not take you to Ukraine!

On the light of the situation in the region, let's reconsider and discuss your logic as well as our logic and your evidence as well as our evidence. Let no one be afraid that in case things are settled in Syria, the Syrian rule will return. This is part of the past, and you know all the conditions that accompanied this past. You know it better than we do. There is no need to put such fears before true and serious dangers that threaten us all.

I call for coordination between the Lebanese Army and the Arab Syrian Army before the snow melts on the eastern mountain range borders. I call on the Lebanese government to coordinate with the Syrian government as per the refugees, the displaced, and security.

Today the danger is by far greater than any party, sectarian, or factional considerations. In this framework, we also call for a comprehensive view to this issue.

It is our fate to fight in defense of Lebanon and the nation since 1982. We were young men then. Our beards were not visible yet. However, we assumed this responsibility, and we proceeded. Some among us were martyred, and we continued in our path from 1982 to 2000 to 2006.

Today, on the path of our leader martyrs - the symbol of our steadfastness and victory - the caravans of martyrs move along to make victory with their blood. The Resistance has always been and will always be the answer. We will always assume the responsibility and make victories with our steadfastness, blood, and inspiration from our leader martyrs - Sayyed Abbass, Sheikh Ragheb, Hajj Imad, Um Yasser, and all the martyrs until {Allah commands; and He is the best to command}. Peace be upon you and Allah's mercy and blessings.

Debaltsevo fallout in Banderastan

An EU Coalition of the Willing?

When I first heard of Poroshenko's latest idea about sending peacekeepers to the Ukraine, I had figured that he was talking about UN peacekeepers, the only ones with any possible legality for such an operation.  Turns out I had "misunderestimated" Poroshenko.  His idea is even crazier: he wants *EU* "peacekeepers"!  This is what the official website of the President of the Ukraine says:

Ukraine considers the EU mission in the framework of the Common Security and Defense Policy the best option of peacekeeping operation in Donbas, as stated by President Petro Poroshenko at the meeting with Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn in Kyiv.

The Head of State has outlined clear position: "Russia, as country-aggressor, cannot and will not take part in the peacekeeping operation". "Ukraine will not agree to a peacekeeping format, which threatens to legalize thousands of Russian militaries – we already have enough such "peacekeepers"," Petro Poroshenko noted.
The President has informed on the decision of the National Security and Defense Council to appeal to the UN Security Council with a request for an international peacekeeping mission to ensure the preservation of peace in Donbas and control the Ukrainian-Russian border in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. "The format of the European Union Police Mission is preferable," the President added.

Am I the only one who is detecting a distinctly American "handwriting" behind this latest idea?  Look again: the idea is this - first go to the UN and when the Russians and Chinese veto it, then turn to the EU and use EU states to make a "coalition of the willing".  Why?  Let me spell out the rationale here:

The prime goal of the USA was to get Russia to militarily intervene in the Donbass to trigger a continental war.  Now that this has clearly failed, they want the Europeans to enter the Donbass with exactly the same goal.  Once the EU peacekeepers are deployed, all it would take is a bloody false flag (an artillery strike, or a bomb) killing enough EU peacekeepers to raise the immediate need to protect them.  Except that the EU does not have any "EU armed forces" so can you guess who would be sent it?  Exactly - NATO.

Will the Europeans fall for that?  I doubt it.  Even the Eurocretins seemed to have lost their taste for crazy US Neocon schemes.  Besides, Russia is not Serbia and there is no way the EU will bypass the UNSC for a military operation, not without triggering a huge political crisis inside Europe.  To me this latest plans smacks of something McCain and Saakashvili could have cooked up and not something coming out of this White House.  God knows I have no sympathy for the Obama Administration or for the Eurocretins in Brussels, but this latest stunt is dumb even by their standards.

Poroshenko and his victorious troops celebrate their newest victory!

Die Fahne hoch! Die Reihen fest geschlossen! SA marschiert mit ruhig festem Schritt. (The flag on high! The ranks tightly closed! The SA march with quiet, steady step. Horst Wessel Lied - Nazi anthem)

Looks like the Nazi death squads are on the march again, this time they are looking at Kiev.  Thirteen death-squad (aka "volunteer battalion") leaders have now declared that they are forming their own military command under the command of the notorious Semen Semenchenko. Officially, they are not in any way opposed to the current regime, so said Semenchenko, but in reality their rank and file members are pretty clear about what they want to do: organize a third Maidan and toss out Poroshenko.  What makes these 21st century version of the SA so dangerous for Poroshenko it that he, unlike Hitler, does not have a 21st century version of the SS to eliminate them all overnight.  In fact, according to many reports the entire southern part of the rump-Ukraine is now "Kolomoiski-land" fully under the control of the oligarch who finances these death-squads.  Add to this the fact that most of the Rada is composed of the very same battalion commanders and assorted Nazi freaks, and you will why Poroshenko is now very much in danger.

The next leaders of Banderastan?

Poroshenko can try to present the Debaltsevo disaster as a huge victory, but apparently everybody in the Ukraine knows the truth and that, in turn, designates Poroshenko as the ideal scape-goat and culprit for what happened.   The sad reality is that there is simply nobody in the Ukraine capable of disarming these so-called "volunteer battalions".  There are now thousands of uniformed Nazi freaks roaming around with guns who can now impose their law of the jungle on everybody.  It sure looks like the future of Banderastan will be something like a mix of Somalia and Mad Max - a failed state, a comprehensively destroyed economy, a collapsed social order and the law of armed gangs of thugs.

In a couple of days it will be one year since the US-backed Nazis took power in Kiev and when I think of what they have "achieved" in such a short period of time I wonder if the idiots who were jumping on the Maidan and screaming "he who does not jump is a Moskal" and "glory to the Ukraine! to the heroes glory!" had any idea that their actions would completely destroy the country which they wanted to bring into the EU.

The Saker