Europe is Charlie but not Donbass

Ramzan Kadyrov on Takfiri terrorism

Listen to Ramzan Kadyrov, the Muslim leader at the forefront of the struggle against the Takfiri terrorists:


Question: is this Muslim to blame for what happened in Paris? Or is his Islamic faith? Who has done more to fight Takfiri terrorism - Kadyrov or Hollande?

I am NOT Charlie

Okay, let's be clear.  I am not Muslim.  I oppose terrorism.  I don't even support the death penalty.  I loathe Takfirism.  I oppose violence as a means to make a political or ethical point.  I fully support freedom of speech, including critical speech and humor.

But this morning I am most definitely NOT Charlie.

In fact, I am disgusted and nauseated by the sick display of collective hypocrisy about the murders in France.  Here is why:

Charlie Hebdo for the Darwin Awards

The folks at Charlie Hebdo had it coming. Here is what I wrote about them in September 2012 when they published their famous caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed: Worthy of the Darwin Awards, if you ask me.  Excellent, the “gene pool” of the French “caviar-Left” badly needs some cleaning".  Today I fully stand by my words.

Just a stupid dare?

Let me ask you this: what would be the point of, say, taking a nap on train tracks?  You don't have to "agree" with the train which will run you over, but it still will, won't it?  What about taking a nap on train tracks specifically to make a point?  To prove that the train is bad?  To dare it?  To make fun of it?  Would that not be the height of stupidity?  And yet, that is *exactly* what Charlie Hebdo did.  I would even argue that that his how Charlie Hebdo made it's money, daring the "Muslim train" to run them over.  You think I am exaggerating?  Check out the caricature which one of the folks who got murdered yesterday had just posted.  The text reads: "Still no terrorist attacks in France - Wait, we have until the end of January to send you are best wishes".  The crazy person shown in the drawing is packing a Kalashnikov and wearing an Afghan "Pakol" - the typical "crazy Muslim" in Charlie Hebdo's world.  Talk about a stupid dare...

"Spitting in people's souls"

There is an expression in Russian: spitting in somebody's soul.  It fully applies here.  Muslims worldwide have be unambiguously clear about that.  They take blasphemy very, very seriously, as they do the name of the Prophet and the Quran.  If you want to really offend a Muslim, ridicule his Prophet or his Holy Book.  That is not a secret at all.  And when Charlie Hebdo published their caricatures of the Prophet and when they ridiculed him the a deliberately rude and provocative manner, they knew what they were doing: they were very deliberately deeply offending 1.6 billion Muslims world wide.  Oh, and did I mention that in Islam blasphemy is a crime punishable by death?  Well, it turns out that of 1.6 billion Muslims exactly three decided to take justice in their own hands and kill the very deliberately blaspheming Frenchmen.    You don't have to be Muslim or to approve of the death penalty for blasphemy to realize that this was inevitable and that this has nothing to do with Islam as a religion.  Offend any group as large as 1.6 billion and sooner or later you will find 1-5 folks willing to use violence to make you pay for it.   This is a statistical inevitability.

Are some victims more equal then others?

So 12 deliberately "soul spitting blasphemers" were murdered and all of France is in deep mourning.  The media worldwide does such a good job presenting it all as a planetary disaster that many thousands people worldwide say "I am Charlie", sob, light candles and take a "courageous" stance for freedom of speech.

Crocodile tears if you ask me.

The Empire's freedom fighter

The fact is that the AngloZionists have carefully and lovingly nurtured, organized, armed, financed, trained, equipped and even directed the Takfiri crazies for decades.  From the war in Afghanistan to Syria today these murderous psychopaths have been the foot-soldiers of the AngloZionist Empire for decades.  But, apparently, nobody cares about their victims in Afghanistan, in Bosnia, in Chechnia, in Kosovo, in Libya, in Kurdistan, in Iraq or elsewhere.  There these liver-eating murderers are "freedom fighters" who get full support.  Including from the very same media which today is in mourning over Charlie Hebdo.  Apparently, in the western ethos some victims are more equal then others.

And when is the last time somebody in Europe shed a single tear over the daily murders of innocent people in the Donbass whose murder is paid for and directly directed by the western regimes?

How stupid do they think we are?

And then this.  Even a drooling idiot knew that Charlie Hebdo was THE prime target for that kind of attack.  And I promise you that French cops are not drooling idiots.  Yet, for some reason, they were nowhere to be seen that day.  Only a van with two (or one?) cop was parked nearby (hardly an anti-terrorist protection detail) and one poor cop was shot and then executed with an AK shot to the head while he was begging for mercy.  Is this the best the French state can do?

Hardly.

So what is going on here?  I will tell you what - the EU 1%ers are now capitalizing on these murders to crack down on their own population.  Sarkozy already met Hollande and they both agreed that new levels of firmness and vigilance need to be implemented.  Does that not reek of a French 9/11?

So no, I am most definitely NOT Charlie this morning and I am disgusted beyond words with the obscene display of doubleplusgoodthinking "solidarity" for a group of "caviar-lefties" who made their money spitting in the souls of billions of people and then dared them to do something about it.  And I am under no illusion whatsoever about the fact that cui bono clearly indicates that the French regime either organized it all, or let it happen or, at the very least, makes maximal political use of it all.

But most of all, I am disgusted with all those who play along and studiously avoid asking the right questions about all this.  I guess they really are "Charlies" all of them.

I am not.

The Saker

PS: PLEASE POST YOUR COMMENTS ON THE NEW BLOG, NOT HERE!!!

Many good news for the blog

Dear friends, Christ is Born!

It has been a while in the making, but I can now announce that the "new new blog" is now officially launched.  You can visit it on either one of the following links:

http://thesaker.net/
http://www.vineyardsaker.net/

Same blog, new look

There still might be kinks here and there, especially in the archives before 2014, but generally it looks solid to me.

Most of the work on the new blog was done by Gevorg from Armenia who did an absolutely *phenomenal* amount of work which included many, many hours of hard labor including patiently tutoring me on the capabilities of the new blog and asking my input on my preferences which often included complicated features such as the "community rss" (you can now see on the right column the headlines of all the other Saker Community blogs).  If somebody need a great webmaster, email me and I will help you get in touch with Gevorg.

Gevorg was not alone, however, and I also need to thank the following great people:

"X" (Administration)
"A" and "O" (Backend development)
 
The new blog includes many features which blogspot lacks.  I encourage you to play around with the numerous ways of organizing the information and try out the various sections for yourself.  Most importantly, I would ask everybody to begin commenting on the new blog and not here, so we can see what works well and what needs fixing.  Still, just in case, I will allow comments here too.

My plans for the future are this: until the new blog is totally functional and all the kinks have ironed out, I will continue to double-post on blogger and on the new blog with the sole purpose of keeping a backup and another archive. However, I will eventually close down the comments section on the old blog (once I am sure that everything works smoothly on the new blog). .  Still, I ask you to already voluntarily stop commenting here and to already begin commenting only on the new blog.  Please post comments here only if you have a technical problems posting on the new blog.

The other good news is that the Serbian Saker blog is now back with a brand new team, so make sure to check it out.

Finally, thanks for the hard work of "A" the transcript of my third podcast is available for download on the Saker Podcast download page here: https://sites.google.com/site/sakerpodcast/

That's it for today.  I will be back, God willing, on Friday.

Cheers and hugs to all,

The Saker

PS: on the new blog, make sure to click on "BLOG" on the top left to leave the homepage and to go to the latest post!  Or use these direct links:

http://www.vineyardsaker.net/blog/
http://www.thesaker.net/blog/ 

Saker schedule update + 2 open threads

Dear friends,

Today Orthodox Christians like myself celebrate the Eve of the Nativity (aka "Christmas") and tomorrow will be a major feast day for us (Orthodox feasts always begin on the previous evening).

Icon of the Nativity

On Thursday I will have to spend the day on the road to drive my daughter to college so, God willing, I will be back only on Friday.   I have a hotspot in the van, but since cellphone coverage is spotty at best in the Florida boonies and 4G is rare, it might be hard for me to stay connected.

I will have the time to make a short post tomorrow morning with some good news to share with all of you.

Until then, please consider this post (and tomorrow's!) as "open threads" which I will try to moderate as best I can (but considering that I will attend long church services at night and that I also need sleep, please don't be too frustrated if it takes me longer than usual).

To those of you who celebrate the Nativity according to the Julian calendar I wish a joy-filled and peaceful day, and to those of you who do not, I also wish the exact same thing :-)

Kind regards, peace and cheers,

The Saker

Not a Buk-M1 missile - full report and analysis of fake evidence

Dear friends,

I have recently informed you that the Dutch blogger Max Vanderwerff had posted a very interesting analysis debunking the Buk-M1 "missile plume" theory.  Today I am posting his full research online which I encourage you to download from the following to locations:

http://www.mediafire.com/view/t5o16c6qz3nl8be/Not_A_Buk_-_final_copy.pdf

http://www.docdroid.net/oj8s/not-a-buk-final-copy.pdf.html 

Both of these services offers to read the PDF file online.

I think that it is absolutely crucial that we not allow the truth about MH17 to be buried under an avalanche of lies or be 'forgotten'.  By now, there is a lot of research which has been done, some of it excellent, some of it less so, but we absolutely must continue to keep this topic alive.

Please read this report and do your best to circulate it amongst your friends.

Kind regards and many thanks,

The Saker

About the murder of Batman

Dear friends,

I want to remind you all that WE DO NOT HAVE ALL THE FACTS!! (sorry for the "screaming" CAPS).  I will be the first to admit to this about myself.  Colonel Cassad is doing some stellar reporting about this on his blog, and he also is very very cautious (I don't share Cassad's political views, but I have learned to admire his intellectual honesty and his excellent reporting).

I would even dare say that this type of "slow moving caution" is what separates the responsible blogger from the incendiary reckless type who immediately points fingers, knows it all, knows who done it, on whose orders and why.  Personally, I stay away from this kind of "faith based blogging".

Batman was a skilled and charismatic leader, that is sure.  Which proves nothing.  He had some, shall we say, "interesting" followers.  That also proves nothing.  In fact, nothing of what we know so far proves anything.  But I will say that things look awfully bad for Plotnitskii and the LNR authorities because even if they did not do it, they look guilty and they mismanaged it all.  But to those who might suspect me of blaming the authorities let me share a small exculpatory item of information: it took them a very long time to come up with a (poorly prepared) statement about what happened.  If they had planned the hit, I would have thought they would have also planned a nice, "pre-packaged" cover for it while instead they all have that "deer in the headlights" look.  Again, that proves nothing either, just that one should be willing to look to *ALL* the facts before jumping to any conclusion.

The idea of Putin sending some Spetsnaz team to do that is also highly unlikely.  First, Putin does not need that kind of turmoil in the LNR.  Second, when Putin (or other powerful Russians) wanted to remove Strelkov and Bezler, they did not need that kind of "fireworks".  Finally, according to the information of a Batman aide, the tactics used in the attack were not the kind used by a professional team (the attackers almost shot each other).  There is a long record of Spetsnaz assassinations of Chechen Wahabi leaders, and none of them looked anything like what happened near Krasnyi Luch.

So, friends, let's wait.  The key thing for me is this: what will the LNR authorities do?  If they are really not guilty, then they need to launch a massive investigation into what happened and considering the size and nature of the attack, this investigation should yield some clarity.  The Russian special services can help with their own intelligence.  Now if they try hard to forget it all and bury it, then that would look very bad to me.  At that point I expect the Russians themselves to get rid of those responsible.  Unless, of course, the Russians are really behind it all, at which point the cover-up will be total from the local cop to the Kremlin.  But now, let's wait and see what happens.

And stay away from those "faith-based bloggers" who already know it all before nothing anything.

Kind regards,

The Saker

Innocents Abroad

by MJ

On New Year’s Eve, a true story of “babes in the woods” appeared in the news: two sweet, innocent-looking, and very young Italian women, had disappeared into Darkest Syria, and had reappeared, as prisoners of the al-Nusra Front, humbled, eyes turned to the ground, wrapped-up in black shrouds.

It all started when Greta Ramelli and Vanessa Marzullo, 20 and 21-year-old university students, discovered Syria’s humanitarian crisis. They become involved in the plight of Syria’s children. They did all the right things, according to progressive standards: they signed petitions, they went to demonstrations, they added their little voices to those of the Free World press, crying out for “something” to be done.

Anybody who’s anybody agreed: “something” had to be done, and that “something” was for NATO to turn into the Free Syrian Army’s air force. The young ladies were interviewed, passionately wrapped in the FSA flag—three stars denotes “Free Syria”, as opposed to the cheaper Assad model, deserving only two stars.

Italy of course is where Syrians hope to land, after their families sell their homes to pay smugglers to send a son to Europe. A son, who should—insha’Allah—get as close as possible to Italy, before the smugglers push him overboard or before the unseaworthy boat sinks. Then, he might be able to send some money home and keep the entire family from starving. So, many Syrians come to Italy.

Greta and Vanessa marched; they spoke; they agitated; they were interviewed. They met Syrians with terrorist connections, they met Italians with connections to NATO and the Italian services. They were photographed at a demonstration, holding a sign praising a Syrian Islamist group. In another photo, an Ukrainian flag was seen in the background—the war on Russia has many fronts.

Vanessa, in June 2014, posted in praise of the military success of “Jabhat a-Nusra”. https://aurorasito.wordpress.com/taqfiri-ditalia/ A trip to Syria was planned; it was arranged that the two activists would cross into Syria from Turkey, with a reporter, Daniele Raineri.

Daniele Raineri, a reporter with access to Syria

On April 20, 2014, President François Hollande declared that Syria was still using chemical weapons: “We have a few elements of information but I do not have the proof.”http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10777059/Syria-Bashar-al-Assad-launching-chemical-weapons-attacks-with-chlorine.html

The Economist observed: “The use of chlorine gas is hard to prove. It is not banned under the CWC [Chemical Weapons Convention] and it does not linger, making the extraction of evidence from soil samples almost impossible.”http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21601260-deadlines-are-being-met-regime-still-cannot-be-trusted-getting-there

Nevertheless, on April 29, The Telegraph had a piece under the title “Syria chemical weapons: the proof that Assad regime [is] launching chlorine attacks on children.” The article explained that “chemical tests conducted with The Telegraph now confirm that chlorine gas and ammonia have been used in Idlib, and that the toxins came from barrels that were dropped from helicopters.”

That was an odd conclusion to reach, from some dirt in plastic baggies that an agent had brought to Turkey. How could the chemist tell whether that any unlikely eventual trace of chlorine in the baggies came from chlorine gas in Assad’s bombs, or from chlorine tablets stolen from Assad’s swimming pool?

Clearly, the international community needed a daring agent to travel on location. That was Daniele Raineri, who for years had reported from the Middle East, for the conservative business daily Il Foglio. Conversant with Islamist affairs, he tweets @DanieleRaineri. On May 11, 2014, he had a piece in The Telegraph, with the photograph of the chlorine bombs that President Hollande had been musing about. So, as far as the Free World press goes, the case was closed. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/10820440/Found-the-bombs-that-delivered-Syrias-chlorine-gas.html

The OPCW

The Telegraph was pleased to report that the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) had confirmed that “Bashar al-Assad's regime made systematic use of chemical weapons against Syrian civilians.” Apparently, The Telegraph’s reporter had not read the one-page OPCW report in its entirety; what it said was that “a toxic chemical has been used repeatedly as a weapon in Syria.” http://www.opcw.org/news/article/opcw-fact-finding-mission-compelling-confirmation-that-chlorine-gas-used-as-weapon-in-syria/ However, the OPCW said that it “attempted to visit Kafr Zeta to gather on-site evidence in the aftermath of an alleged use there but was prevented from doing so when the convoy was attacked. The FFM [Fact Finding Mission] then decided to carry out witness interviews in a safe location outside of Syria.”

The OPCW report shows remarkable parallels with another intentionally non-conclusive report, on the MH-17 case, by the Dutch Safety Board (DSB): both DSB and the OPCW investigators said they were attacked, both seemed uninterested in finding out who had attacked them, both decided to go investigate the crime far from the scene of the crime, and both have not been heard from ever since.

The OPCW had been in the news in 2002, when its Director General, the Brasilian Jose Bustani, had been removed; he was negotiating an inspection regime in Iraq, a policy at odds with John Bolton’s plans for Iraq. The OPCW is now chaired by Turkey’s former ambassador to NATO.

The Foreign Office in London was pleased to offer the positive conclusions that had escaped the OPCW: "The systematic and repeated use of chlorine in northern Syria and the consistent reports from witnesses of the presence of helicopters at the times of the attacks leave little doubt as to the Assad regime's culpability.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11088205/Syria-chemical-weapons-watchdog-confirms-Telegraph-analysis-of-chlorine-gas-attacks-on-civilians.html

The bombs

Mr. Eliot Higgins, “an expert on the munitions used in the Syrian war said this new, low-intensity chemical warfare has not been improvised but carefully planned.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/11088205/Syria-chemical-weapons-watchdog-confirms-Telegraph-analysis-of-chlorine-gas-attacks-on-civilians.html
Which brings us to the issue of cui bono? Why put very valuable helicopters and crews at risk, just to deliver “low intensity” ordnance, when rockets and artillery are available? Only a dozen people were killed in the chlorine gas attacks. Why insist on using such an ineffective weapon—after giving up the very effective nerve gas?

Most important, Raineri’s photographs show improvised munitions, of the type that had been used in Iraq, since 2006. http://www.ilfoglio.it/galleria/1606/2011/11/_*_7_*_/le-prove-degli-attacchi-al-cloro-raccolte-sul-campo-in-siria.htm Such bombs were made by adding a chlorine cylinder to a car bomb.

Yet, the good folks at Human Rights Watch decided they had all the evidence required to condemn Syria; they presented the photos of Raineri, adding that a “video shot on the western edge of Keferzita and uploaded to YouTube on April 11 shows the near vertical descent and detonation of an unidentified munition fully consistent with a barrel bomb dropped by helicopter.” http://www.hrw.org/news/2014/05/13/syria-strong-evidence-government-used-chemicals-weapon Oddly, I fail to see any falling object in the video. An Islamist website did propose a photo of a helicopter with two barrels hanging from it. http://muqawamah.com/560-bom-dijatuhkan-oleh-tentara-assad-di-seluruh-penjuru-aleppo-selama-bulan-mei-2014.html , but it was a pretty obvious photoshop project. http://www.francescosantoianni.it/wordpress/2014/10/01/lecumenica-bufala-cloro-assad-foglio-fatto-quotidiano/

HRW also cited witnesses of barrels from the sky. I do not find them sufficiently persuasive, since
a. no videotaped testimonies are presented;
b. in wartime, compliant false witnesses for God and Country are not hard to find;
c. in an area where dissidents are beheaded without trial, testimony loses value.

Yet, one simple “conspiracy theory “ can explain everything: when the stakes are high enough, political leaders are tempted to see their own citizens as expendable subjects. Perhaps “only for the sake of liberty and justice”, rulers may order false-flag operations. In recent history, decisions to value the end above the means have given us the Sarajevo breadline bombing, the Markale Market bombings, the 2013 sarin attacks, and in the 2014 chlorine attacks: all those events were just desperate pleas for the intercession of NATO’s angels.

A kidnapping by the "good guys"?

All the good work of Mr. Raineri was placed at risk by NATO leaders’ indecisiveness and by the U.S. military’s resistance. Now NATO’s fiery eye was turning away from Syria, and fixing itself upon Russia, once again.

Still, until the stunning success of ISIL in Iraq, there was some hope, some chance to see the U.S. Air Force in Syria’s sky, and Daniele Raineri was asked to shepherd two young women into the eye of the storm. Upon their return to Italy, the two young ladies would have qualified as an attractive, energetic, vocal FSA-Moderate Islamist propaganda team. They could speak, they wrote well, and their looks and styles made them stand out of the usual crowd at demonstrations; some saw them as the perfect “useful idiots”, ready to do the rounds of TV shows. They crossed the border on July 28.

They were still together on July 31, visiting the chief of the Revolutionary Council of El Ismo, near Aleppo, where the two women were detained; Raineri got away. http://www.lastampa.it/2014/08/09/esteri/italiane-rapite-in-siria-pistelli-sulle-tracce-di-chi-ha-preso-le-due-ragazze-1jN4Gr6MyYsrosyFFU8f8O/pagina.html On the road, they could have fallen into an ambush by chance; however, as guests of a militia leader, it would appear that they were sold, by a leader of the “moderate opposition”. Neither Raineri nor his paper have published details of the event.

As things stand now, we can be sure that we will not have any further information until the appropriate ransom is paid by the Italian government. The Italians will reject any adventurous raid to liberate the ladies. The record of Italy, from years of experience in the Iraq war, is clear: Italian prisoners are not abandoned.

Putting US war spending in perspective

First, check out this: http://www.ibtimes.com/14-million-hour-war-costs-top-16-trillion-911-say-congressional-researchers-1764816

Then watch this:

Batman's murder in Luganks is very bad news for Lugansk

I deliberately waited a few days before addressing the issue of the murder of "Batman" (Alexander Bednov) in the Lugansk People's Republic but I am getting too many questions to remain silent any longer.  So first, let's look at the fact

Batman

What is more or less established:

Batman had been traveling in an armored car for a while now because he feared for his life.  Near the city of Krasnyi Luch, his convoy was attacked on a curve by a group of very well equipped attackers which were hidden on both sides of the road.  Most interestingly, the armored car in which Batman was sitting was either blown up by a mine, or by a thermobaric missile (fuel-air explosive) which instantly ripped the vehicle into shreds.

Batman and everybody in his vehicle were instantly killed.  The rest of his convoy was taken in a very heavy crossfire and killed.  The attackers then approached the smoldering cars and hit every body left (many had been torn into several unrecognizable part) with a "control" shot into the head.  The attackers then left the scene in, according to some witnesses, 2 Tiger special combat vehicle and one Kamaz truck.

The many theories:

Cui bono does not help very much here as the list of potential candidates is simply too long.  Depending on whom you ask the current list of who could have ordered this murder include:

1) The Head of the Lugank People's Republic Igor Plotnitskii
2) Vladimir Putin (yes, some will blame him for everything and anything)
3) Novorussian drug dealers or other criminal forces
4) The Ukrainian junta
5) Some Ukrainian oligarch
6) Forces interested in creating a "false flag" to discredit the Lugansk authorities
7) Western special services

To make things worse, Batman himself was the object of several very serious accusations including:

1) The severe torture of prisoners
2) The misappropriation of funds and humanitarian aid
3) The refusal to subordinate his Rapid Reaction Group to legal authorities

My own gut feeling about this:

The most likely version in my opinion is that the Lugansk authorities ordered the arrest of Batman and that the people who were tasked with executing this arrest were too afraid of Batman and his protection force to even try to detain him.  I think that they simply opened up with everything they had.  Did the authorities order him killed or were their orders misconstrued?  Who knows?  What is certain is that even if their orders to detain Batman were misconstrued these authorities still carry the political responsibility, the responsibility of command, and that at the very least  a) they should order an honest and open investigation and b) all those responsible for this murder should be punished regardless of how many of the accusations against Batman were founded: whether he was guilty or not, he was never given a chance to surrender and he, and everybody around him, was murdered in cold blood.

Conclusions:

The Lugansk People's Republic is a mess and has been a mess from Day 1.  It is still a mess.  For example, Vladimir Gromov, the Head of the Lugansk Counter-Intelligence Service has declared that this murder was a false flag operation of western special services which aimed not only at discrediting the Lugansk authorities, but also to have the various field commanders turn their guns on these authorities and overthrow them.  I personally consider the notion of western special services running around the Lugansk People's Republic in a a Kamaz Truck and 2 Tiger special vehicles as ludicrous, but I do see that Gromov realizes that this latest screw-up of the authorities might cost them their power and their lives.  So the crisis is deep and serious, to say the least.

Givi, always the good guy (I love him!), has already offered to accept all of the Batman's men under his command (he was trying to avoid a shootout between these men and the government forces sent to arrest and disarm them.  I don't know what happened since (if you find out, please let me know!).

I will say that Batman was clearly a pain in the rear for the authorities and I believe that some of the accusations made against him are founded.  But the way this was handled is an outrage and a disaster.  Worse, Plotnitskii get no support, nevermind respect, from most field commanders.  So what is he doing still in power?  This looks bad, bad, bad.

It is hight time to clean up the Lugansk People's or the folks in Donetsk will spend too much time worrying about what is happening with their neighbors.  I wish someone credible, say like Bezler, was sent their to kick-a** and restore some order and unity of command.   Until that happens we can expect more scandals from this troubled region.

The Saker

Open Thread

As requested - here is an open thread.
I will be back, God willing, tomorrow.
Cheers,
The Saker

Past Russian wars: a quick look at history

The number of well-informed commentators, politicians, blogger and observers who are predicting a war - or at least of a serious risk of war - between Russia and the USA is sharply rising.  Though I myself am rather inclined to believe that the US will use the Ukrainian junta to attack Russia rather then risk a direct confrontation,  I would not go as far as saying that I find a direct US-Russian war impossible.  If only because many wars are not deliberately started, but rather stumbled into.  For all these reasons, it is, I think, high time to look at the historical record of Russia in wars.

It turns out that a military historian in Russia already did all the work for us.  Nikolai Shefov is the author of 10 books about Russian history including one entitled "The Battles of Russia" in which he not only looks at each war, but actually at all the major battles fought in all the wars of Russia between 1700 and 1940 (he stops at the Soviet-Finnish war and does not include WWII).  Here are his findings:

Between 1700 and 1940  Russia/USSR fought in 34 wars and won 31 and in 392 battle and won 279.  We could say that Russia won 91% of her wars and 71% of her battles.  Russia's opponents included: Swedes, French, Germans, Turks, Poles, Tatars, Finns, Caucasians, Japanese, Chinese, Austrians, Hungarians, British, Italians and Central Asians.

In the author's opinion Russia lost only three wars: the Crimean one, the Russo-Japanese one and the one against Poland in 1920.  He considers that Russia won the first world war because no enemy ever stepped on any part of the Russian land (If you are interested, here is a link to an the original book in Russian, to an article summarizing the book, and to a machine-translation of this article into English).

I would just add that Crimea was fought against what I call a "great ecumenical coalition" (including Anglican British, the Latin French and the Muslim Turks) which outnumbered the Russians by over 200'000 people (there was almost a MILLION "ecumenical attackers" for just over 700'00 Russian defenders.  But yes, Russia did lose this one.

Did Russia lose the war against Japan?  I would argue that the Russian Fleet sure was defeated by the Japanese Navy, but Japanese historians have a very different view of what happened and consider that Japan's military was spent by the time the peace treaty was drafted (by the Russian side, by the way) and that Japan had been forced to accept very bad terms.  At the very least, I would call this one a draw.

As for the Russian-Polish war, yes, the Soviet's lost this one badly.  But look at the kind of Soviet Union we had in 1920: a country in the midst of a civil war, with many uprising taking place, with a "worker-farmer" "army" with no real officers and let by clueless commissars.  So while the outcome was a defeat, the circumstances of that defeat are, I think, so unique as to be irrelevant.

But whatever the fine print and different views of the significance of individual outcomes, I think that these figures strongly suggest that attacking Russia is an exceedingly bad idea, even when only conventional wars are considered.  Attacking Russia while she has the powerful nuclear arsenal on the planet is utter lunacy.

Let's hope that this short reminder will reach at least one of the crazies who think that playing a game of chicken with Russia is a sound policy and that the Russians will "blink first" impressed by the US/NATO military prowess.

The Saker