Ukraine SITREP October 8th, 16:00 UTC/Zulu: The calm before the storm?

Military situation

The situation in the Ukraine and Novorussia is a very tense and could lead to a major resumption of hostilities.

The Junta Repression Forces (JRF) have used the ceasefire to lick their wounds, get reorganized, concentrate their forces, bring in much needed reinforcements, prepare defensive fortifications and bring in new units.  The Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) have done the same but, unlike the JRF, the NAF suffer from a lack of equipment, possibly made worse by a reduction of the flow of weapons, in particular heavy ones, from Russia (the so-called voentorg).  In terms of personnel, the influx of volunteers to the NDF has remained steady and strong.

Why did Moscow turn down the air-spigot to Novorussia?

There could be a number of reasons, but the three main one are probably:

1. A way to put pressure on the Novorussian leadership to abide by the ceasefire and to remind them that they cannot ignore the Kremlin's position.
2. To deny the AngloZionists any possibility to find some proof of the voentorg.
3. To show the Europeans that "see - we are upholding our end of the deal while the Junta does not"

The latter is absolutely true, by the way.

Even though the Donetsk airport has finally been taken (I define "taken" not as "every Ukie killed" but as "every Ukie artillery system destroyed" because this is what matters for Donetsk), the JRF is still shelling the city the north, the west and southwest.  Furthermore, there are some very ominous signs that the JRF is preparing to try to encircle Gorlovka.

October 7th combat map

In the meanwhile the NAF has pulled back the units which had gone as far as the north and even west of Mariupol and the "southern front" has now acquired a much more defensible shape as shown by the latest map (click here for a high-resolution version).

The frontline has not moved much during the ceasefire.  The NAF has made some local advances, the JRF has retreated in certain locations, but by and large the line of contact has remained unchanged and it being used as a basis for the development of a disengagement plan prepared by Ukrainian, OSCE, Novorussian and Russian experts.  Indeed, there are officially 80 Russian General Staff officers currently in the Donbass (invited by Kiev) who are participating in the development of the planned "buffer zone" between both sides.  This fact is, in itself, rather interesting as it now shows that the US, EU, OSCE and the Junta had to give up on their long-standing claim that the Russians had no say or status in an "internal and sovereign Ukrainian process".

Another very interesting development has been the offer of President Lukashenko of Belarus to send in peacekeepers which the Novorussian authorities immediately accepted.  So far, this is not officially on the table, but the offer is interesting for the following reasons:

1. The Belarussians have an extremely powerful military, well-trained and well-equipped and they would be a very robust and tough peacekeeping force.
2. The Belarussians armed forces are extremely close to the Russian armed forces and, for all practical purposes, they are one entity.  Thus both the Novorussians and Russians could trust the Belarussians.
3. While Lukashenko is somewhat of a goofball who regularly makes bizarre and contradictory statements, he is also a smart man who knows the score and who will remain loyal to Russia and the CSTO.

In other words, bringing in the Belarussians - even as peacekeepers - could well mean the end of any Ukie hopes to re-conquer the Donbass.  This, however, also could mean the end of any Novorussian hopes of liberating the Junta-occupied Novorussia.

Will the ceasefire hold?

I don't know, but I am confident that the Novorussians will not break it first.  Most of them absolutely hate this ceasefire, but they also understand that there are bigger political issues involved and that they cannot simply defy Moscow.  As for the Kremlin, its position appears to be that "Plan A" is to make the most of the ceasefire and "Plan B" is to make sure that the Ukies carry the full political responsibility for a resumption of full-scale hostilities.

Parsing the Russian media (corporate and social) I would say that:

1. There is a very large consensus in Russia that the Novorussians have earned the right to be free from Kiev.  Of course, many (most?) Russians do understand that Novorussia might have to remain formally part of a unitary Ukraine, but only formally, not in any meaningful way, and only temporarily.  A good example of his understanding is this blogger's analysis (see here machine translated by Google).
2. Nobody in Russia trusts the junta or Poroshenko.  There is a consensus that the only way to keep Novorussia safe is to have it militarily strong enough to beat back any possible Ukrainian attack.
3. The Dugin-Limonov camp has lost the PR war and very few people still make the case for an overt Russian military intervention.  However, this might very rapidly change of the JRF break the ceasefire and attack.
4. The CIA-backed "liberal" (in the Russian sense) camp is in total disarray.  Except for the TV channel Dozhd or the Ekho Moskvy Radio station, nobody takes them seriously and when one of their representatives shows up on a TV show they get eviscerated in minutes by all the other guests and even the show host.

From all this I conclude that Russia is "ready to pounce": if the Ukies break the ceasefire and massively attack, the "voentorg-spigot" will reopen immediately and freely flow, if the Ukies are successful and if the NAF proves unable to withstand the assault, Russia will directly intervene again like she did in August.  If Novorussia is truly threatened, Putin will openly send in the Russian military (though he would do that only if given no other options at all).

Political situation: Banderastan

The situation in Junta-occupied Ukraine (aka "Banderastan") is one of complete chaos.  Violence (political and criminal) is everywhere and the state has more or less ceased to function.  Take for example the numerous destructions of the statue of Lenin.  First, the fact that they are being destroyed to begin with is a telling example of the Ukie ignorance of history since it was Lenin which created the Ukraine as a state, Stalin which added the western Ukraine, and Krushchev which gave the Ukies Crimea.  So they can continue to go on repeating their slogan "Комуняку на гілляку" ("commies on branches" meaning that Communists should be hanged), but the modern Ukraine is a 100% commie-made entity (besides, Lenin was a vicious russophobe who hated everything Russian with a passion).  But the main point is that the destruction of these statues shows that law and order are gone and the mob rule is really the only "authority left".

Second, while there are clans who fight each other inside the junta (Poroshenko vs Kolomoiski vs Liashko vs Iarosh vs Tymoshenko etc.) there is no real opposition left.  Well, I guess you could say that there is almost no real opposition left.

Elena Bondarenko

Following the brutal assault on Rada Deputy Nestor Shufrich (who is now in the hospital), the last two more or less well-known opposition figures are Elena Bondarenko and Nikolai Levchenko, both, like Shufrich, from the Party of Regions.  Bondarenko was openly threatened by the Minister of Internal Affairs who actually said on Ukie TV the following: "when I hear her speak my hand goes to my gun".  These are the words of the top law enforcement official in Bandestan!

To be honest, I am very concerned for her personal safety and since she has refused to participate in the upcoming farce of the Ukie elections, she should probably find refuge in Russia or Crimea as her life is most definitely at risk.

Nikolai Levchenko

The other high profile opposition figure is Nikolai Levchenko, also a Party of Regions Deputy who is often associated with the oligarch Rinat Akhmetov.  Levchenko, who was elected in the Donbass, is particularly hated by many Novorussian field commanders because he opposes both the JRF and the NAF and because he often compares the two sides.  Whether Levchenko truly believes that armed resistance only makes things worse or whether he speaks for the financial interests of Rinat Akhmetov is anybody's guess.  All I can say is that he did openly oppose the neo-Nazi junta in the Rada and that he was assaulted and beaten up for it.  Bondakeno also dared to openly challenge the Ukies junta during her speeches in the Rada and was forcibly removed from the podium but not beaten up (yet?).

It is important to stress here that both Bondarenko and Levchenko are loyal Ukrainians - they not only put some of the blame for the violence on the Novorussians, they also reject the return of Crimea to Russia which they blame on the crazy policies of Kiev.  If the West had had any decency (or brains for that matter), these are the people it should have supported, but now it is way too late and people like Bondarenko and Levchenko have simply lost their constituency which not only rejects their "moderate" stance but which now considers itself as having left the Ukraine and thus not concerned by elections to the Rada.

As far as I know, neither Levchenko nor Bondarenko are running in the next "election" since they both consider it a total farce (and, besides, since the Donbass won't participate in this election anyway, what would be the point?).  As for the Ukrainian Communist Party, it has basically gone underground, with many of its members assaulted, murdered and threatened.  The sad but undeniable reality is that there is no opposition in Banderstan, only various clans and various flavors combining neo-Nazi and oligarchic interests.

Banderastan thus has no political future to speak of.  But then, neither does it have an economic, cultural, social or any other kind of future.  The only question now is whether it will resemble more Haiti, Somalia or Iraq.  The only certain thing about the future now is that coming winter will be terrible and violent.

Political situation: Novorussia

The infighting of Novorussian political leaders and field commanders continues.  At best, some of them simply ignore everybody else (Khodakovski or Cossack leaders) at worst, they openly fight each other (Bezler and Zakharchenko).  In fact, Zakharchenko apparently resigned, then this resignation was pulled back.  

Why is this infighting continuing?

There are several reasons for that:

1) The ceasefire agreement is extremely controversial and while nobody likes it in Novorussia, the degree of opposition to it differs from person to person.
2) Even though Strelkov tried really hard to turn an insurgency of volunteer militiamen into a regular army he was not given enough time and while the purely military coordination has improved (reportedly with Russian General Staff specialists), the political unity is still lacking.
3) There are also upcoming elections in Novorussia and some politicians (Zakharchenko, Gubarev) feel that they must take a politically correct stance.
4) The fact that Russian and Novorussians objective interests are not one and the same also exacerbates the issue of who will get Russian help.
5) Some Novorussian military field commanders (Mozgovoi?) feel that this entire political circus is useless and that Novorussia should be run by those who liberated it: the military.  Obviously, civilian politicians don't care for this kind of vision.
6) The Russian infighting between the "Atlantic Integrationists" and "Eurasian Sovereignists" is having a spillover effect into Novorussia.

As a result of all this, I would say that Novorussia is solid in military terms and weak in political terms.  Furthermore, contrary to what I had expected, Strelkov has not had much of an impact on the Russian political scene and, at least so far, has been relatively recluse.  I have no explanation for that.

Conclusion:

On one hand, the ceasefire is being constantly and increasingly violated.  A major Ukie attack is definitely possible.  On the the other hand, the work on the creation of a buffer zone, possibly involving foreign troops, is actively being pursued and the conflict could temporarily be frozen along the current line of contact.  Both Banderastan and Novorussia are politically weak and neither is truly under the authority of one single person or group of people.  The following months will be catastrophic for the Nazi-occupied Ukraine and quite literally anything is possible there including a 3rd Maidan, a coup, local insurrections, false flag operations, assassinations and, of course, war.  In a way, the stupid trench-to-become-wall the Ukies are building along the borders with Novorussia, Russia and Transnistria might end up protecting Banderastan's neighbors from the effects of the explosion to come.

The Saker

Mozgovoi's message to Putin (with English subs)

First reply to your comments about the new blog

Dear friends,

Please forgive the short reply, I am swamped with work, but I want to let you know that the following change to the new blog has  already been approved: adding  another box on the right hand column with St George ribbon in it.  This box will also include links to the blogs philosophy, moderation policy, and a quick blurb about anonymous postings are welcome.

Second, the domain name/URL http://vineyardsaker.net/ is doing something weird: it is out of sync with the http://www.thesaker.net/.  The IT team is trying to find out what the problem is.  In the meantime, please only use http://www.thesaker.net/ 

Third, the CAPTCHAs have been removed (they might come back, if needed, but fixed).

Finally, with the help of your comments we will make a lot of changes and adapt the blog to your needs and preferences.  So please keep the suggestions coming in and please be patient (everybody involved is doing that pro bono and on his/her so-called "free" time).

I will keep you posted, of course.

Kind regards and many thanks,

The Saker

Is Kiev Wildly Understating Combat Deaths?

by Charles Bausman for Russia Insider

In the past two weeks persistent rumors that Kiev has been hiding thousands of killed and wounded Ukrainian servicemen and ‘volunteers battalion’ casualties have forced their way into the Ukrainian press.

The most vocal allegations of a cover-up of Ukrainian combat deaths comes not from Russian media or the leaders of the ‘separatist’ Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, but from right wing MP and Radical Party leader Oleh Lyashko, and from the commander of Kiev’s ‘Donbas Battalion’ Semyon Semchenko. 

Last month on his Facebook page Lyashko directly accused President Petro Poroshenko of hiding over 8,000 Ukrainian combat deaths -- a number nearly eight times the ‘official’ KIA figures reported by the English-language Kyiv Post, which as of Friday was still stubbornly reporting ‘only’ 974 confirmed Ukrainian combat deaths - a highly dubious figure that has barely budged since the disastrous battle for Ilovaisk in early September.

According to Myroslava Petsa, a correspondent for Ukraine’s 5th Channel, Defense Minister Valeriy Heletey refused to discuss the casualties from in the Ilovaisk disaster in a recent parliamentary hearing. Ms. Petsa tweeted on October 1st that Heletey referred to the casualty lists from the Ilovaisk battle as classified. But who is Lieutenant General Heletey trying to hide Kiev’s true losses from, the Donbas militias or the Ukrainian people?

It’s easy to dismiss Semchenko as an incompetent  battlefield commander seeking to excuse his failures, and to call Lyashko a fascist clown who kidnaps alleged ‘separatists’ and strips them down to their underwear for videotaped interrogations. But Lyashko’s estimate of Ukraine’s total KIA is consistent with numbers put forward by pro-Novorossiya sources such as Colonel Cassad’s blog. It’s also consistent with the grim casualty reports from the bloody battle underway as of this writing for the Donetsk airport.

The ruins of the airport were reportedly 95% controlled by the Novorossiya armed forces (NAF) as of this past weekend after Ukrainian units rejected offers to pull out under the terms of the Minsk ceasefire agreement, which places an armistice line 20 kilometers behind the doomed airport garrison’s positions.

Novorossiya spokesmen have told Col. Cassad’s site they estimate Ukrainian losses at the airport will eventually reach 600 wounded and 1,000 dead.

Western journalists covering the Ukraine conflict can plead ignorance until now about Ukraine’s true as opposed to admitted casualties. They can cite Carl von Clausewitz’s maxim that “casualty reports on either side are never accurate, seldom truthful, and in most cases deliberately falsified”.

But the truth is at least one BBC journalist has been aware of Ukrainian rumors about horrendous losses for weeks.

In an interview with a Ukrainian journalist translated and subtitled into English by Russian-Canadian attorney Gleb Bazov’s team of Russian translators in mid-August, members of the Mykolaiv-based 79th Airmobile brigade complained bitterly that Kiev has been hiding enormous casualties. They state [at 6:38] that Ukraine has already lost more soldiers fighting the Donbas rebellion since April than the Soviet Union lost during nine years of occupying Afghanistan.

(For those readers who may not be familiar with the cost of the USSR’s disastrous Afghan campaign, that number exceeds 14,000 combat deaths and 53,000 wounded. If one considers that the soldiers may have been referring to total combat deaths in the Ukrainian SSR to the Soviet Afghan War during the 1980s, over 8,000 combat deaths in the War for Donbas is possible.)

In the same video, the 79th brigade survivors also claim that they were abandoned by the Ukrainian high command, and refuse to concede that the forces that defeated them with weeks of shelling in the so-called ‘Southern Cauldron’ near Saur Mogila were Novorossiya rebels and foreign volunteers rather than the Russian army.

It is noteworthy that BBC journalist Daniel Sandford, whose Twitter feed is widely followed among Western journalists covering Russia and Ukraine, tweeted the video on August 20, 2014 saying “Both pro-Ukrainians AND pro-Russians are now citing this video to support their views of the conflict.”

In other words, Western journalists covering the Russian and Ukrainian beat cannot plead ignorance.

The 79th brigade members’ stories of losing hundreds or thousands of comrades to artillery and GRAD rocket fire are corroborated by another video interview with Ukrainian journalists hundreds of miles to the west, this time with survivors of the 30th brigade based in the western Ukraine town of Novohrad-Volysnki.

In the video veterans of the 30th brigade and their furious relatives confront a Ukrainian officer about the whereabouts of the unit and its pathetic supply situation. The officer admits near the end that only 83 out of 4,700 soldiers who deployed with the brigade have returned unhurt. Which begs the question -- what happened to the rest? Are they dead, or wounded?

The Hromadske TV journalists, whose salaries are funded by the Dutch and American tax payer through government grants, certainly weren’t asking those questions on camera. Neither are Western journalists like Sandford who are very likely to be aware of this clip which was also translated and subtitled by Gleb Bazov’s team of translators at the Slavyangrad blog in mid-August.

Pro-Kiev Twitter warriors have denounced Lyashko’s claims that Ukraine is disposing of thousands of its servicemen or labeling as ‘Missing in Action’ thousands of combat dead as Russian misinformation -- without explaining how the Kremlin could have recruited the viciously Russophobic Lyashko and Semchenko to repeat the allegations.

But many of these sources are the same fanatics who insist Ukrainian troops hold the Donetsk airport and will never lose it despite overwhelming video evidence to the contrary. They insist that Kiev could never silence all of the relatives of the dead, wounded and missing even if it were to try.

But in a country where Right Sector goons now beat opposition politicians on camera with impunity, silencing angry relatives and imposing a blackout over the subject of hidden casualties is entirely plausible.

Especially when Western journalists have refused to question Kiev’s fraudulent casualty figures and simply wait around for Kiev’s mouthpieces to sell them their latest bill of goods.

NEW SAKER BLOG IS OFFICIALLY LAUNCHED!!

Dear friends,

It is with a huge pleasure that I can announce some very good and long waited  news: the new Saker blog is now up and running and you can use either of the two following links to access it: 

http://www.thesaker.net/

and

http://vineyardsaker.net/

My wonderful IT team (A, F and MB - thanks guys!!) put a lot of work into importing seven years worth of posts and comments and to add a host of improvements.  For example, from now on you will be able to sign on using a host of different social media networks.  Anonymous comments will still allowed.

Please pay careful attention to the "ABOUT" menu and its submenus including, most importantly, the new moderation policy.  FYI - I will be doing all the moderation myself, but these rules will be very strictly enforced.  I consider these rules to be both very minimalistic, vitally important and very permissible.  I have put up with a amazing amount of arrogant and nasty trolling here because of my naivete and because originally this blog had a full "anything goes/zero censorship" policy.  Now I know better and I have learned it the hard way.

Please look around the site and please take a look at the different pages and let me know what you think, preferable by posting your likes/dislikes as comments on the new blog (please no private emails or comments here, okay?).

I will continue double-posting here and on the new blog for at least one more month until all the kinks problems and other bugs and issues are resolved.  However,

Next Monday, October 13 I will close all comments on this blog (I mean the original vineyardsaker.blogspot.com) and you will only be able to post comments on the new blog.

After the new blog's minor issues will be solved (in a month or so) I will "freeze" this blog (again, I mean the original vineyardsaker.blogspot.com) and thus stop double-posting.  This means that I will not delete it and I will keep it as a repository of old articles and, if needed, as a well known fallback option should an attack (of any nature) be successful on the new blog.

So if suddenly all the Saker blogs including http://www.thesaker.net/ and http://vineyardsaker.net/ all go off-line and you can always try to come back here to get an update about the situation.

Also, in preparation for the worst be hoping for the best, the following mirrors do currently exist.  I will maintain the ones I own, but the three others do not depend on me and while I hope that they will remain up and running I cannot guarantee that:

run by me:

http://thesaker.ucoz.com/blog
https://thesaker.wordpress.com/

run by friends:

https://wikispooks.com/VS/
http://info.scoop.co.nz/Saker_Analytics
https://vineyardsaker.wordpress.com/

Finally, please write down the following email addresses you can reach me at:

vineyardsaker@gmail.com (primary)
vineyardsaker@mail.ru (main backup)
thesaker@unseen.is (only for secure communications)

You might wonder why I am so paranoid.  Well, first, I am paranoid by nature, nurture, training, education, professional inclination and experience.  But most importantly, I know that we are really making a difference.  Not only does this blog - according to Google - get anywhere between 20'000+ visitors per day (on a very quiet day) to an incredible 70'000 visitors in one day on August 31st (when events accelerated in the Ukraine), but the other four Saker Blogs - Russian, French, German and Oceania - are also doing very well, as are their associated YouTube channels.  Even better, I can already make the following pre-announcement:

We are working on two more Saker Blogs: Spanish and Serbian!  There also appears to be interest in creating a Dutch Saker Blog.

Add to this a very good collaboration with the great Russia Insider community of contributors and you will see that my paranoia is well-founded.  The recent Saker-bashing campaign - they are still at it - has convinced me that there are interests out there which are extremely annoyed by what the Saker community is doing.  Their attempts at smearing and discrediting me ended up backfiring at them (they lost a lot of credibility in the process) but I don't think that they will stop at that.  I expect both legal and technical challenges next, hence the time it took to prepare and secure the new blog in legal and technical terms.  Without going into any details, let's just say that we have put a great deal of redundancy and survivability into the new blog.

Finally, I apologize for the little time I have had to write for this blog.  I can promise you that all that time was spent in developing and strengthening our Saker community and that, God willing, things should return to some degree of normalcy soon.

Okay - your turn now: what do you think about all that?

Please let us all know what does not work and is still buggy (the CAPTCHAs for anonymous posting are not working for me, I think that I will completely remove the CAPTCHAs) and then please be patient while we fix it.

Again - please post your replies on the NEW blog's (http://www.thesaker.net/ ) Open Thread created for that purpose!  But if you *cannot* post there due to a technical reasons like some bug or mis-configured option, then please do post here.

Kind regards and many thanks to all,

The Saker

Transcarpathia, Transnistria and Gagauzia SitRep 28 Sep - 05 Oct

by "Y"

Transcarpathia

ATO
Charitable events continue as a means of supplying aid to troops in the east. Returning troops from the 15th Mountain Infantry Battalion of the 128th Brigade have stated the prime need is for diesel generators, fuel, heaters, thermal underwear and winter clothing. Collections and other actions have raised funds of at least 41,000 UAH (~ $3000) for supplies such as canned food, fast food, coffee and tea. A group of Svoboda supporters have provided a Grand Cherokee Jeep for use in the ATO. This was used to transfer supplies to the front. The local regional coordinating committee has been disbanded, and replaced by volunteers, seemingly part of the 'lustration' process aimed at removing corruption and giving greater transparency.

The Transcarpathian authorities have applied to the Ukraine Ministry of Defense for funding to supply all military needs, especially winter clothing. The sum of 3.5 million UAH has been transferred to military budgets for the purchase of bullet-proof vests, helmets, military boots and warm clothes for up to 650 people. A further 1 million UAH has been allocated for communications equipment.

The reports relating to troop movements are mixed and confusing. One report notes that 38 security police have been sent to the east with another 8 to follow. Another report states that 50 local riot police officers will depart for the ATO zone to relieve others there. The supposed rotation of Border Guard officers to replace troops from 128th Brigade still has not taken place. The parents of these troops still at the front have started protests, stating they may take claims to the International Court of Justice if the rotation does not happen soon.

Some official casualty figures have appeared. The recent attacks at Donetsk resulted in the death of 7 troops with 9 wounded. A further 200 at least were lost at Ilovaisk. Poroshenko has reported that officially 967 Ukrainian troops have been killed to date. The Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN is reported as stating a further 700 troops and 1700 civilians are held by the separatists.

Officially 24 men from Transcarpathia have died in combat. The losses include one Lieutenant Colonel. four Captains and two Lieutenants, with the remainder a mix of NCOs and soldiers. The most recent fatality has been named - a 43 year old volunteer called Yuri Sokolachko, who served as an artillery spotter for the 128th Mechanized Brigade. The lost and survivors were honoured at a public ceremony in Uzhgorod.

Economy

The economic figures for the cost of the actions in the east are dire. Agricultural productivity to August is down 21.4% compared to August last year. The equivalent losses to July were 13%. The drop in industrial production appears to be a disastrous 97% in August compared to the previous month (i.e. an almost complete cessation of production, if the reports are accurate). Foreign investment to mid year has seen a drop of 75.4% compared to the previous year. Given these figures, the drop in exchange rate for the Hryvnia from 14.9 to about 13 to the US dollar seems surprising. This may reflect the effects of the government clamp down on currency outflow, or more likely, external support for the Hryvnia in order to make things seem better than they are.

Energy
Transcarpathia is important as a focus of gas pipelines between Ukraine and Europe, both for flows westwards, and for reverse flows eastwards that have become essential for Ukraine. There are three main sources of reverse flow, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland. The pipelines for these are capable of supplying 23, 17 and 5 million cubic metres of gas per day respectively. The Hungarian reverse flow has ceased in response to Russia's reduction in forward supply. The Hungarian President has stated that it has to put its own energy needs first. Slovakia has reported a 50% reduction in gas supplies, forcing it to reduce reverse flow. The resumption of supplies from Poland following the resolution of technical problems there will be welcomed by the Ukraine regime, but is of minor relevance given the supply figures above. It may be a sign of desperation that the Ukrainian gas corporation Naftogaz is reported to have signed a contract with Statoil of Norway for the supply of gas through Slovakia. The details of how this would work and how it would be financed have not been made public.

There is one extremely tiny piece of good news for Ukraine. An illicit small scale oil extraction facility has been detected and fixed. Inexplicable oil leaks were observed near an oil pipeline close to the border with Hungary. It appears that someone had tapped the pipe to extract possibly a few thousand gallons per day. Shoddy workmanship gave their game away.

As reported earlier, Ukrainian electricity exports have been hit. Published figures report a loss of 4.1% in the first eight months of this year compared to last year. This form of presentation of data may average out and mask any sudden dramatic loss arising from the recent devastation in the east.

Mobilisation
Earlier directives from the Ministry of Defense requiring military commissioners of districts, cities and regions to go to the front to relive troops have had no effect. The local commander Colonel Ivan Vasilovich said he has received no orders regarding this, but will comply when ordered to do so.

It is unlikely there will be a fourth stage of mobilisation. Poroshenko has stated that the potential for peace in the east has reduced the need for such actions. The only requirement is to enable rotation of the troops at the front. The third mobilisation in the Beregovo district of Transcarpathia only raised 50% of the eligible candidates. Following this, it has cancelled its planned fourth stage of mobilisation. The stated reasons include the number of protests against the mobilisation and the reluctance of civilians to perform military service. The looming elections probably have nothing to do with this what so ever.

Politics
The main political events are the recently endorsed lustration process and the forthcoming election.

A total of 75 candidates are standing the six electoral districts forming Transcarpathia. The great majority of the candidates are described as 'self nominated' rather than representing one of the major parties. A high proportion of these 'self nominated' candidates are probably members of Svoboda. Parties associated with Tymoshenko and Lyashko have candidates in all six districts. The party associated with Yatsenyuk has five candidates. The parties associated with Klitschko and Poroshenko have only one candidate each, in the Uzhgorod district. Given the use of 'self nomination' to hide political allegiance, these figures may under represent the effective political affiliations. Two candidates for the Pravi Sektor party were rejected by the Election Commission. Their response was that everyone should remember the fate of Yanukovich.

A group of three brothers - the so-called Baloha clan - are standing for election, one each in districts 69 (Mukachevo), 71 (Hust) and 73 (Vinogradov). All are described as 'self-nominated'. The Baloha brother standing for Mukachevo gets a lot of coverage in the Mukachevo press. He comes out with some memorable quotes. For example, "the only place the Communist Party can speak is in the SBU office". On plans to create a national army of 150,000 professionals with 500,000 reserves, he asks about the costs and where will the money come from. He is reported as saying "Sorry, friends, but this is called selective Masturbation". He views Poroshenko as a capable business man, but not a President. Local opinion suggests that two of the brothers will almost certainly win seats.

Hubal, the Head of the Regional State Authority has met with OSCE representatives to discuss the electoral process. He has stated that the main concern is transparency of the elections and that the RSA will not interfere in the process. The OSCE representatives reiterated that they are just observers and have no policing powers. OPORA, an NGO monitoring the process, lists 'irregularities' it comes across. These include multiple candidates with the same surname, damage to party billboards, non-compliant advertising and plagiarism of mandate text. The use of 'self-nomination' to mask party allegiance does not appear to be an 'irregularity'.

Poroshenko has finally signed the Lustration Law. The Ukrainian Attorney General has expressed the view that some provisions of the law may inconsistent with the Ukraine constitution and the requirements of international (specifically EU) law. There may be a large number of appeals lodged with the European Court of Human Rights. Lustration enthusiasts have been preempting final acceptance of the law by pressing individuals to resign. Hubal has said the Head of Regional TV should resign, whilst the Head and Deputy Head of the local Health Organisation have already been affected. A temporary replacement has taken over their position.

One problem for the enthusiasts is that the Law does not apply to MPs. Baloha says this allows a fifth column to remain in parliament. His view is that the law needs expanding and candidates should be required to say whether they support the law or not on their ballots.

An alternative view of the 'lustration' process is that "Officially, the Law 'On cleaning power' is intended to restore trust in government and lay the legal basis for the construction of a new system of government by European standards. Unofficially - it is to gather votes and divert the public from violent economic crisis, the Hryvnia depreciation and political power failures in the Crimea and in the East."

Other recently reported items of political news include the delay by the EU in processing the Free trade Agreement with Ukraine, which may not happen before the end of 2015. Baloha blames government corruption for the delay in the implementation of visa-free travel to the EU countries. An amnesty for illegally held guns has been announced for October. The stated purpose is to prevent criminals gaining access to these weapons.

Propaganda
At a recent charity event in Uzhgorod celebrating the birthday of the artist Ignatius Roscovich, alongside the usual cake and book stalls was a shooting game for all the family - shoot Putin using a bow and arrow.

In contrast to the usual propaganda about Russian forces attacking Mariupol, the destruction of an elite Russian marine unit near Debaltseve located at the crossroads between Donetsk and Lugansk, and claims of KAMAZ lorries full of 'Cargo 200' heading towards Russia, there is an hilariously desperate article about an ethnic Hungarian member of an international group fighting with the separatists against the regime forces in the east.

Separatism
The issues relating to the Hungarian minority continue unresolved. The Society of Hungarian Culture in Transcarpathia is reportedly intending to file a lawsuit with the European Court of Human Rights over the problems with the boundary of the 73rd district. The Central Election Commission has declined to recreate a majority district for Hungarian interests. A change of boundary of the 73rd district prior to the 2012 election was made in favour of a pro-Government candidate who won. This was at the expense of Hungarian interests.

The charity established by the right wing Hungarian Jobbik party has been declared illegal and the Hungarian MEP Bela Kovacs has been banned from entering the country. An analyst, Professor Sergay Fedak, has stated that the majority of ethnic Hungarians are against autonomy, and are more concerned with the economy and social services. The report gives no clue as to how these conclusions were reached.

A local report linked to a TV program discussing Hungarian and Rusyn separatism. It showed a small demonstration in Budapest where Transcarpathian flags were shown. The commentators stated that it was not known who was behind this. Other sections of the program referred to Petro Getsko, the Rusyn separatist. The style of the program clearly implied that Russian funding and connections were behind the calls for autonomy.

Following the tension about autonomy and the suspension of reverse gas flow, it is not surprising that Nuland has stepped in making comments stating that Hungary is supporting nationalism and attempting a 'rollback of democracy'. It looks like Orban may have become persona non-grata for the Indispensable Nation®.

Resources
Transcarpathian fragment of Ukrainian patchwork
Ukrainian Armed Forces

Transnistria (aka PMR) and Gagauzia

ATO
The Moldovan MP who visited Donbass has urged the Council of Europe (PACE) to launch an investigation into the war crimes carried out in Donbass.

About 60 people from Ukraine have sought refuge in Transnistria following the actions in the east.

Economy
Work continues on the proposal for an airport at Tiraspol. A commission has been established to look at the costs of lighting, communications and runway upgrades. The main problem however is political. Given the uncertain legal status of PMR, the consent of Moldova is needed before the proposal to proceed to reality.

Moldova is still reportedly not issuing export certificates for PMR goods. In response to a deteriorating economy, the PMR government is proposing to raise excise duties on tobacco, alcohol, some luxury and electrical goods from January 2015.

Moldovan farmers affected the proposed road between Tiraspol and Ribnita have been offered compensation for the loss of use of their land.

Should Moldova proceed with a Free trade agreement with Europe, the PMR government would want to see a separate document covering equivalent relationships with Transnistria.

Figures recently released indicate the significance to the Moldovan economy of the contribution of personal remittances from abroad. The monthly total for August was about $154 million. Of this, 39% came from Russia, 36% from Europe and 25% from the US. These remittances amount to 25-30% of Moldova's GDP. Therefore, the contribution from Moldovan migrants to Russia is about 10-12% of GDP.

Energy
One of the consequences of the Kiev regime's actions in the east has been a reduction in coal supply with a consequent reduction in the exportable electricity capacity. Moldova has seen a 20% reduction in electricity supplied from Ukraine. This has been offset by an increased supply from the PMR power station. Moldova imports 90% of electricity with about 60% normally from Ukraine and about 30% from the PMR.

Gagauzia officials have opened discussions of the implementation of a mechanism by which Russia offers first 500 cu m of gas at reduced cost to consumers in Gagauzia. Gagauzia wants the gas pipelines in its territory that are not on Moldovan books to be integrated into a network, allowing it to join the gas market with the Customs Union. The PMR government has stated it is ready to pay market rates for Russia gas subject to the resolution of the economic blockades imposed on it.

Politics
Moldova has issued a demand that Russian peacekeeping troops should leave Transnistria. Ukraine has also placed restrictions on the flow of goods to Russian contingent. Shevchuk, the President of the PMR, states that the tripartite peacekeeping troops should remain in place until the final resolution of the political position.

Propaganda
Shevchuk has stated that claims of buildup of PMR troops preparing for an attack against Ukraine are false. He regards these claims as an attempt by external political forces to organize or to provoke a conflict on the border with Transnistria. PMR has appealed to Ukraine and OSCE to discuss the problem. Shevchuk comments "by a strange coincidence, the OSCE in Chisinau for some reason does not support our initiative. That is strange. If the international organization confirmed the lack of military preparations, I think the tension would be minimised". He has also reiterated that the PMR has not sent any representatives to the Donbass region.

Separatism
Attempts at reunification of Moldova and Romania may lead to a final goodbye from Transnistria and Gagauzia. Rogozin has been reported stating the Russia will protect its citizens in PMR if Moldova repeats the 'Ukraine scenario'.

Citizens of Gagauzia have protested recent actions of the SBU. The SBU has arrested a number of young activists based on charges of treason and terrorism. A rally was held, attended by politicians, activists and parents of those arrested. In a poll, 98% of Gagauzians stated Gagauzia should become independent if Moldova reunites with Romania. Some analysts reported in Gagauzian press offer the view that Moscow may recognise the independence of PMR and Gagauzia if Moldova joins Romania. George Friedman, the president of STRATFOR, was in Chisinau recently promoting re-unification with Romania. He stated that it was 5 years too late for Moldova to join the EU. He claims that "Russia is a country in decline. Romania is on the rise" and that Moldovans "need shelter. Europe is an illusion. Russia is weak".

Resources
NATO eyes Transnistria
More blowback in the offing
Ukraine and Transnistria: A Troubled Borderland

Dear Children of Hong Kong

by an anonymous resident of Hong Kong

Dear children of Hong Kong:

Most if not all of you are very concerned about the puzzling scenes and conflicting interpretations/comments (some with fake photos) flying around, each perhaps serving some untold purposes. Concerned but not necessarily adequately informed (not as those who have followed the socio-political development in Hong Kong as a cool pursuit of truth rather than passion – to look for sometimes unpalatable truth rather than what you might prefer to believe, and have done so for a considerable length of time), this must have been a difficult time– though to some, they may actually have a privately congratulatory feeling of “being part of history or history making” as they do what they usually cannot on the streets.

It is difficult because you’ve seen friends estranged because of difference of belief. But it could also be excited (as revolution– what some cold minded scholar had labeled the “opium of intellectuals”)-- is said to be going. However, deep down you may feel unsure and worry about something may happen to destroy Hong Kong. This is particularly hard for those who are deeply entrenched in their beliefs (because you cannot turn back now), but somehow not really sure if what you have long upheld is true --- particularly as things don’t turn out as simple, easy, clear-cut and tangible as originally thought (or led to believe by the so-called “leaders” of civil disobedience).

Here I am not trying to explain the historical metamorphosis of events (for the past 17 to 30 years actually, and accumulated feelings on both sides---actually there is at least one third party few young people would think of---foreign governments). I am only offering a summary analysis plus some recommendations for you to consider.

First, the real bone of contention: “Lack of Mutual Trust”.

The central argument now is all about whether anyone can stand for election to become CE of HK—what pan democrats called “true universal suffrage”. Beijing obviously is worried about this and insists that : First, it must be nominated by the “Nomination Committee” (as spelled out in the Basic Law accepted by both Britain and China); second, only a candidate who claims allegiance to Hong Kong (jargon: “love” Hong Kong), and by extension, allegiance to China of which Hong Kong is a part.

Pan Democrats alleged that this is not true universal suffrage as there is some conditions for who can run. This view is accepted by most youths and some of their parents and teachers (who, because of the British ban of contemporary Chinese history in curriculum during their own school days, are largely uninformed about the development of the country save for its negative – though quite true—aspects). This camp then alleged that the Central Government does not trust Hong Kong people and therefore they are angry. They want CY Leung to step down as they alleged that he had not helped Beijing understand the “true” views of most Hong Kong people.

Let us first remember: trust must come from both sides to be mutual. Pan democrats, on one hand, has never said they trust Beijing. Now, let’s see whether the things they’d done since (actually before) the hand-over till now have laid a solid or even shaky but workable foundation of trust for Beijing? Hell, no! Look at some of the following:

Ever since 1997, from insulting the flag, to challenging the authority of the nation’s congress over the local court, to physically thrusting at then Vice Premier Li (now premier) when he was invited to deliver a lecture on China’s economy at Hong Kong University… and endless blockading and thrusting by force at the Liaison Office of the Central Government at Hong Kong, as well as the fanning up of anti-Mainlanders activities in recent years---apparently all aimed at alienating Hong Kong from Mainland which was united only after 150 years.

Some of them have openly (on TV etc) asserted that they aim at changing China (so much for the principle of “River and Well water stay away from each other 河水不犯井水);

Endless filibuster acts in the Legislative Council (Legco) to block almost all important actions of the government with the purpose of discrediting it --- so as to uphold the myth that only elected government can rule. What about the 150 years rule by governors directly sent from London? No argument about democracy but the message is fabricated and therefore not true.

Now, more in focus is the question for candidacy for the CE post. Before judging the validity of the pan democrats’ claim or understanding Beijing’s worries, let us be reminded of the following facts:

The Britain cunningly devised (and Beijing perhaps unknowingly accepted then) a system in which any foreigner who have resided in HK consecutively and legally for 7 years can become “Permanent Residents”. Note: purposefully blurring the distinction between a citizen and just a person allowed to reside and work (who are not considered citizens in any country), the so-called “permanent residents” in Hong Kong can vote and enjoy all privileges of citizens here without any obligation or commitment! Actually, they enjoy more privilege than the “real” Hong Kong people because: a. They need not forsake their original nationality or allegiance/loyalty to it; b. They can vote in both their own country and here; c. if Hong Kong collapses (and causes harm to China), they either could not care less or even secretly congratulate themselves if their countries are at odds with China – and many of their original countries are. A “genuine” citizen’s vote carries only the same weight as these “permanent residents” in Hong Kong who have no commitment to this place!

The Basic Law specifies that only people of Chinese origin or Chinese born in Hong Kong can assume leading positions in the government. Can the highest government post of Chief Executive be an exemption?

The pan democrats has a verifiable record of trying to push for permanent residency status for foreigners. E.g., the South Asians (members of the British Commonwealth) and even Filipino domestic helpers. No offense to Filipinos but --- need I remind you of the two nation’s hot argument on south sea isles? They are by definition a foreign interest.

Lai Chi Ying, owner of the notorious (chased out of Taiwan as he tried to meddle in the island’s politics) Apple Daily News, was found to have given HKD 40,000,000 to anti government politicians last year (actually, a lot more money in previous years), including Anson Chan who wanted to be CE and the retired archbishop of Hong Kong (who criticized anything related to Mainland China). The case is now under investigation of the ICAC (Independent Commission Against Corruption). Can Beijing trust these people?

Can Hillary Clinton refuse to pledge loyalty to America if she runs for president? Can anyone in any country do that if he/she runs for a chief public office in their own land? Then how can Beijing accept this to happen in Hong Kong --- where it is no secret that Britain and the US want to have influence, in fact, control?

What would happen if we really have a CE who does not put the interest of Hong Kong (and China) above those of other nations?

Beijing, through the local government, ask Hong Kong to “accept for now 袋住先” the rather stringent requirement (most important, that the nominee must be supported by half or more of the Nominating Committee) the People’s Congress (the highest legislative body in China) has announced – hinting that the conditions could be relaxed later. This is a promise it can hardly go back. But this not accepted by those going to the streets.

Regarding voting right --- what universal suffrage usually means—there is no argument. Beijing already committed itself to that EVERY eligible voter in Hong Kong (including foreigners who may be against China) can have a vote for the CE ---if the present package is accepted by the Legco. This is a required step since the British days. If Legco does not accept it, there will be NO universal suffrage and the old system (through which the previous 3 CEs were elected) would remain.

Next I would like to Beijing’s suspicion and whether it has grounds for it.

Beijing alleged all along that opposition movements (plenty since and before 1997) have been instigated, supported, designed by foreign powers (particularly the US) who provide technical expertise not only on electioneering (seen in previous elections where Democrats often won, though not any more) but also street fight techniques.

Selina Yip Lau (previous Secretary for Security of Hong Kong, now elected Legco member after studying at Stanford) has just published her findings on techniques including the “firechat” software used in Taiwan students’ previous occupation of its legislative college (which does not need the internet to function, is an excellent field communication and command software which works both on the internet and mobile phones). She pointed out that the “amateur” students were able to break through police blockade in a mere 5 minutes, and their stationing of defense and guard posts cannot be done by non military people. See Yahoo.com.hk or Yahoo it. (Not sure if not blocked in Google)

America’s blockade of China is known by anyone in the study of Geopolitics (not available to HK university students yet). Also, separation of any part of China has always been part of American strategy vs a rising China. Hong Kong has always been a key financial, political, and social-cultural hub for China sitting at the mouth of the Pearl River where it meets the South China Sea.

Beijing is aware of the series of “color revolutions” ranging from the Arab Spring to Yugoslavia, Thailand and Ukraine etc. In both Thailand and Ukraine, the democratically elected presidents were thrown out of office by street protest. All these countries touched upon by America are now in miserable conditions. Will Hong Kong be next?

Whether or not we think Beijing’s suspicion has grounds, when it suspects, it naturally takes a more defensive, conservative attitude towards the election of Hong Kong’s CE.

Conclusion drawn from the above discussion:

Unrestricted universal suffrage including the free choice of candidates is attainable only if a genuine mutual trust between Beijing and all people in Hong Kong is built up. Now what will democrats do to help build this? At any rate, given the loophole in our election system, there is no way a candidate should run without professing allegiance for Hong Kong, and by extension, China.

Personally, I would like to see that the voting system be more open – if Beijing can become less worried and more confident. First, I would like to see the number on the committee to expand by two or even three folds; Second, I would like to see a wider representation of various “sectors” by the committee; Third, I hope to see a less stringent requirement for any candidate to acquire before he/she can actually stand for election --- less stringent than the current specified 50% of the Committee. But I will insist that anyone who wishes to be leader of a part of China must pledge allegiance to both Hong Kong and the country --- and I reserve the right of the people to replace any government for valid reasons.

For that to happen, the pan democrats must reconsider their strategy: Instead of deliberately putting down both the local and Central Government (often very unfairly) to argue (actually establish the myth) that only a democratically government can govern Hong Kong, they should think about how to build up mutual trust. With that, I will not object if any one of them runs and become our next CE. I just do not see how one without the trust of the central government can help Hong Kong.

Now, a few comments about the current situation for the Children of Hong Kong:

It is a tragedy to alienate your friends , particularly long time associates, just because of difference of opinions in this single matter. You should share what you know, and respect his or her choice even if they do not agree. Though this in some way may affect your evaluation of his/her abilities. We need to stand together now, not fight because things are actually much more complicated than what an average person can comprehend;

Both sides (HK govt & Demonstrators) have learned quickly from the early clashes. The government withdrew the riot control units and is adopting a very soft-handed way of dealing with the demonstrators, using TV explanations as well as pleas to the so-called “leaders” of the Occupy Central movement to deliver their previous claims or promise: that the movement will be non-violent, demonstrators will not resist arrest and that if matters get out of and, they will dissolve the crowd. (Truth is: control of the crowd is no longer in the hands of these scholars living the ivory tower—but in the hands of the radical, young students. The “old folks” are making hardline announcements just to “stay with” the crowd, pretending that they are still leading the movement. Actually, the real leaders are the young student leaders trained and supported by a foreign power)

Demonstrators try to show their civil side now (after the initial violent thrashing at police lines which brought tear gas and criticism from some HK people). They now allow passage of some ambulance and fire service vehicles. Actually, most who participated believed in what Tai (the law teacher of HKU) claimed : to perform a civil, i.e., non violent, disobedience. But mass movements are often dominated by passion, particularly among the young. It remains to be seen how long and how dominating civil acts of students could continue as probably some who had seen the unexpected, ugly and violent scenes may have already left;

The Government is obviously playing a “Wait and Wear” game --- waiting to see if a critical mass of the demonstrators can see that they are going nowhere or get fed up with stepped up violence the foreign trained student leaders are advocating, and to see if their TV persuasion, explanation and pleas work; wearing means let the sun, rain and mere physical fatigue to wear out the energy and determination of those on the streets;

The radical student leaders’demands are impossible and unreasonable --- may be after all, they do not really want a peaceful solution of the matter. They demand Leung to meet them at a time they specify, with preconditions Leung is powerless to implement etc., and to step down as the “deadline” they set is now over. Leung cannot possible accept terms he as a local official cannot take up to override those of the Central Government. Stepping down in this time of chaos would lead to what? Beijing will not bend --- as usual it does not, particularly if it suspects foreign governments are behind. Also, bending means not only a loss of face (or legitimacy), authority towards other local governments (most anti-corruption work is directed at local officials). Also, submission could mean endless more demands. Finally, Beijing suspects this is a crucial step of HK going “independent” – as many in the legal profession and foreigners try to interpret “high degree of autonomy” to mean. If it bends, there will be a widespread riots inside China protesting this and the nation will lose face.

Whether they (or the brains behind them) may change their mind remains to be seen. If peacefully solved, however, this group will continue to aggressively cause problems because that would keep them in the lime light. Without that, their value (to themselves as well as their patrons) will be finished.

Friday October 3 will be an important time: People will return to work after two days of public holidays. What would the street “heroes”do? The Government had just explained detailed with a map on the TV how their present “occupied areas” affect traffic. You can assume that they are persuading demonstrators to occupy elsewhere so as to cause less inconvenience to the public. However, it MAY be hinting to them how they can cause even more severe traffic. Somehow I feel that government seems to want it to continue for some time --- no proof, just a gut feeling.

Since the movement, the Hang Seng Index lost several hundred points, meaning 50 billion HKD is already lost. The Mainland has canceled many tours to HK --- the National Day “Golden Week” for tourism is lost, affecting approximately 250,000 people working in tourism and related business. Short term impact: there may be a temporary fall on property prices, particularly the high ended units. As China now eases its property purchase policies, why not buy big, comfortable houses up north with better air and less pollution – including noise (political) pollution?

Worst Case Scenario: History shows that many, in fact, most mass movement with clear-cut, noble goals were often hijacked by opportunists who seek their own goals. While the “Old” leaders such as Tai (HKU) has already lost real leadership of the movement, it remains to be seen if the 17-year old Wong Chi-feng can control the whole scene. “Spontaneous” outburst of occupation actions in various areas may reflect that actually, no single group is actually controlling the “wild cat” type movement. If that happens, be prepared for a long term disturbance. Then the Central Government will need to consider whether to use force and risk being criticized as in 1989 Tiananmen Square incident; or allow HK to “sink” as Thailand or Ukraine. It may also consider “clipping the wings” of the local economy. If the Mainland government is persuaded to adopt a policy providing less favoritism or privilege to HK (which it has been doing all these years), our young people may need to spend more time making a living than roaming the streets telling their Central Government as well as the older people who have built up HK in their younger years what to do. Children of Hong Kong, what choices are you leaving for Beijing?

What the battle for the Donetsk airport reveals about the Ukrainian and Novorussian forces

I hear contradictory reports about the situation of Donetsk airport ranging from "airport 90% in Novorussian hands" to "airport taken".  Whatever may be the case, I believe that there is a pretty good chance that the Novorussians are correct when they say that airport will be taken this week-end.  I took a quick look at the militarymaps.info site to get the latest report and this is what I saw:

There are combats taking place right now (5PM Moscow time) but most of the airport is in Novorussian hands.  Furthermore, the Ukies have been pushed back just barely enough to make it very hard, if not impossible, for them to resupply their buddies at the airport.  In fact, Novorussian soldiers interviewed in the Russian social media say that every time the Ukies try to send in a resupply convoy it gets destroyed.  The AngloZionists are also apparently preparing for the loss of the airport: they are currently discussing the imposition of more sanctions on Russia is the airport falls to the Novorussians.  Very stupid and yet oh so typical of these arrogant and clueless bureaucrats.

But the really interesting thing in all this is the Ukie behavior.  Try to make sense of that:

What the Donetsk airport reveals about the Ukrainian forces

For *months* now the Ukie forces at the airport have been resisting in very hard conditions, often completely surrounded and very rarely resupplied.  The Novorussians have offered them innumerable times to do what most other Junta forces did: leave through a corridor.  But the folks at the airport refused.  Sure, the (previously) ultra-modern Sergei Prokofiev Donetsk airport gave them a lot of very strong buildings and plenty of underground tunnels and facilities to hide, but their conditions there were not made much easier by that: they have been shelled, submitted to sniper fire, attacked by special commandos and basically starved and one can only imagine their morale considering that the chances for victory or even evacuation were close to zero.  And yet they resisted with a fierce determination.  According to one Novorussian source, over 1000 Ukies have already died in and around this airport.

Why?  Why did they resist that way?

Did that airport really have such a strategic meaning?

The answer is no, not in the least.  One silly notion was the the Ukies were holding on to the airport to prevent the Russians from using it to land their forces in Donetsk.  This is laughable for several reasons.  First, the Russians can land a fully mechanized airborne division anywhere, they don't need an airport for that.  Second, if the Russian military wanted to take that airport, it could do that in a few hours (more about that later).  But most importantly, why in the world would the Russian bother landing in a contested airport when they could land in Lugansk or even simply drive from the border?!  So no, the control of this airport does nothing to prevent a mythical Russian invasion.

Does the airport have some other strategic meaning?  Does it allow to control Donetsk maybe?

The answer again is, no, not at all.  In fact, if we look at what the Ukies have actually been doing from that airport we come to the most baffling "mystery" of it all: for months now the Ukies at the airport have submitted the city of Donetsk to completely random and indiscriminate fire.  The kid of fire which kills civilians and destroys buildings, but which will have exactly zero impact on the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF).  And when I say zero I really mean zero.  Let me explain.

The Ukies do not have the reconnaissance/intelligence capabilities to track the movements of NAF units inside Donetsk.  Nor do they have correctors which could correct artillery fire.  Furthermore, while the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) forces to the northwest of the airport can, maybe, provider fire support to the Ukies in the airport, the artillery in the airport itself is useless because the NAF forces are too close for that kind of artillery to be of much use.  Besides, the JRF have a few (2?) tanks and mortars to do that.  So the only possible use for the Ukie forces at the airport is to try to terrorize the people of Donetsk.  This is simply mind-blowing, but it appears that 1000 or so Ukies were killed in months of heavy fighting for the sole purpose of killing civilians.  Yes, it does sound absolutely crazy, but that is because it is absolutely crazy.

Now, it is true that the Ukie "Minister of Defense", Valerii Geletei, is an incompetent clown.  A former cop turned state security official turned military (literally overnight), he is the guy who claims that Russia used nukes in Lugansk, the guy who "signed" his pledge of service with a closed pen and the guy who has just shown WW2 era ammo as proof of a Russian invasion.  He is hated and despised even by the Ukies.  I an see that guy giving the order to "keep killing civilians until all of you are dead", but why in the world are the Ukies at the airport following such an idiotic order?

Finally, consider that one of the few good aspects of an otherwise very controversial ceasefire was precisely to freeze the conflict more or less along the current line of contact and get any surrounded units out with no more blood spilled.  And several Ukies units used this chance to get out of some rather desperate looking situation.  The JRF even unilaterally withdrew from some contested villages.  Except for the crazies at the airport who, instead of getting the hell out of Dodge, decided to dig in, stay and keep on terrorizing civilians.

I might be mistaken here, and I would appreciate any insights into this from you, but the only explanation I have for the apparently insane behavior is that these Ukies have been terminally brainwashed.  They are like the SS in 1945 who screamed "Heil Hitler" while standing in front of a Soviet firing squad.  Just like the SS, these guys apparently believe that their "honor is called loyalty" and they are apparently willing to fight to their last breath for the opportunity to terrorize civilians.  Those Ukrainians who fought for Saur Mogila at least could tell themselves that they died in a battle for the control of the critically important southern edge of Novorussia.  But to die for the Donetsk airport is either to die for nothing, or to die for the capability to kill civilians.  Crazy and scary stuff.

What the Donetsk airport reveals about the Novorussian forces

There is another thing about this airport which strikes me as important.  For months the Novorussians could not take it. Granted, this was a tough objective to seize and one could even argue that the NAF was stretched thin by more important combats elsewhere - both arguments are true - but still that does not explain why they could not take that airport.

There is one fact which civilians are always unaware of and which even military people often fail to realize: all military forces are good when they are winning.  Let's me explain: when a battle starts and, say, side A gets the upper hand and begins beating or pursuing side B, the actual performance of side A is almost always good.  It is exceedingly rare for a military force to show incompetence, poor training or make mistakes while engaged in the pursuit of a retreating enemy.  This also means that you cannot judge the effectiveness of a force by seeing how it performed in a battle it won.  The key criterion to measure the combat effectiveness of a military force (from the foot solider up to the commander) is whether it can turn the tide, whether it can fight well while retreating, whether it can take a severe beating and then successfully mount a counter-attack.  That is something only a truly effective force can do.

I think of the Afghan insurgents who showed superb capabilities against the Soviet military (especially the Tadjiks in the north).  Everybody had assumed that as soon as the last Soviet solider would leave the insurgents would simply enter Kabul in a matter of hours.  It took them three years!

Urban offensive operations are one of the most difficult tasks any military force can be given and even a force which performs superbly in the countryside can completely fail in an urban environment, especially against a determined defender.

The NAF did turn the tide and from a situation where the JRF almost surrounded Donetsk and cut off Donetsk from Lugansk.  The NAF very skillfully used the fact that the JRF was "hugging the roads" to let them in, then surround them, then cut them off and then destroy them.  But this was defensive operation.  Furthermore, they got *a lot* of help from Russia including not only "voentorg", but also direct fire support from across the Russian border.  Then the Ukies ran.  Their retreat was a total disaster, a botched and chaotic retreat in which the JRF truly showed how poor of a military force it was.  But we must not mistake the military incompetence of the Ukies for a proof that the NAF is a very capable force on the offensive.  The fact is that we don't know how good the NAF would be in an offensive operation, especially against a determined defender.  The case of the Donetsk airport is rather unique and does not prove that the NAF could not do well, but it should at the very least give some pause and reasons to think to those who believe that if not for the ceasefire the NAF would have liberated Mariupol or the rest of Novorussia.  Furthermore, if we accept the argument often made by the Novorussians that they could not get the needed forces to the airport because they were stretched thin and needed these forces in other directions, then what does it tell us about what would happen of the NAF indeed did advance on several fronts as it appeared to be doing just before the ceasefire was signed?  Do those who today deplore that Mariupol was not take realize that all the best units of the NAF had already been allocated to this task and that they were all far away from the rest of Novorussia?  To those who are so upset about the ceasefire I have a basic question:

If all the best NAF forces were allocated to the battle for Mariupol, what NAF forces would have remained available in case of a Ukie attack from the north?  IF that had happened how "thin" would the NAF forces around Donetsk and Lugansk have been?

I know that I will not get an answer to those who have accepted as indisputable the thesis that the NAF could have taken Mariupol and freed the rest of Novorussia (nevermind those who believe that the NAF could have taken Kiev).  For them, the botched Ukie retreat from Novorussia is a clear proof that the Ukie military was finished and that total victory was at hand.  And nevermind the Donetsk airport.

History cannot be re-written and we shall never know for sure.  But as long as one can make a plausible argument that the ceasefire was signed just about at the perfect time for NAF - at the peak of its success - then there is no need to assume that all those who are not categorically opposed to that ceasefire are all traitors, agents of Surkov or any other kind of nasty nonsense which the hurray-patriots have been spewing on those who do not share their opinion.  In my opinion the battle for the Donetsk airport clearly shows that the NAF was already stretched thin and that it is far more skilled in rural defensive operations than in offensive urban ones..

The Saker

No posts were censored and nobody banned

Dear friends,

I have absolutely no idea what happened recently, but I am getting comments and emails form many of you saying that their comments had been "censored".  Guys, I did not censor any comments or, much less so, ban anybody (well, I did trash a few comments, but they were either totally insulting and rude, or spam; I mean no "normal" comment was trashed)

Blogger is clearly doing something weird again, that's all.  I took a look at the Google Apps Dashboard (see for yourself here: http://www.google.com/appsstatus#hl=en) and it reports nothing.  So maybe it is a local problem to some geographical area were all the "censored" comments came from?  I have no idea.  But here is my request to all of you:

1) Please do not immediately assume that your comment has been "censored" or that you have been "banned".

2) If a comment you posted does not appear within at the most 24 hours, just resubmit and email me.

3) On the new blog server the moderation policy will be both crystal clear and very simple.  So wait just a little more.

Speaking of which,

I was hoping to have the new server up by today, but it might take a few more days.  Please remember that the 3 IT specialists helping me are not getting paid a single penny and that they do that on whatever time they have left after work, family life, and personal "meatspace" obligations.  I think that you will all like the result very much, but we all have to be patient.  God willing, there is no much left to wait.

Kind regards to all,

The Saker

Murderous lawyers, mainstream officials, the decline of the state and fish soup

Several of you have posted links about that in the comments, but I want to confirm in a separate post that the murderous thug I mentioned a yesterday has been identified. Here is the info Russia Insider posted about him:

Apparently he was arrested on charges of violence during the melee, and held for a while, but then released. During the court proceeding deciding his release, pro-Kiev activists demonstrated in support of him in front of the court buildings.His name is Vsevolod Goncharevskii (middle name: Eduardovich). He is a lawyer, and well-known pro-Kiev activist. 47 years old, a resident of Odessa. Here he is speaking to local TV stations (in Russian). Here are three news stories (in Russian) reporting his arrest, trial, and release.

So the authorities new about him and even put him on trial but then let him go. But that is hardly the most interesting fact. The most amazing about this story is that Goncharevskii is STILL not only an activist of the Euromaindan movement, but even a leader!
After the brutal assault on the Parliamentarian Nestor Shufrich yesterday, the leadership of the Euromaidan movement organized a press conference today to explain that it was all Shufrich's fault because he had not business coming to the city of Odessa in the first place. This is the standard Ukie notion about "Euro-democracy" and "free speech", so that is not what is amazing. But take a look at the video and guess who is sitting second from the right?



Yup! It's Vsevolod "Seva" Goncharevskii himself.

[By the way, the mayor of Odessa, Palitsa, has also declared that Shufrich is a provocateur and that he assaulted the Right Sector thugs. But then, Odessa now "belongs" to Igor Kolomoiskii, so all that is par for the course.]

So not only are the Ukie Nazis blaming a victim for a brutal assault, but they are quite happy to sit together with a well-known murderous thug. And I am not talking about some minor Nazi gang or some Right Sector people here, not at all, I am talking about the very mainstream and "highly respectable" Odessa Coordination Center of the Euromaindan movement. It don't get more mainstream then that. At least not in Nazi Banderastan.

In fact, Seva Goncharevskii is all over the news in Banderastan. Here, he demonstrates with his Right Sector pals in support of the Ukrainian armed forces. Here he is helping volunteers did trenches around Odessa. Here he is being interviewed and protests he persecution by the authorities and claims, in perfect Russian, that he is totally innocent.

This example is a perfect illustration of the true face of the Euroukraine which I call "Banderastan". An ugly, racist, unapologetically Nazi and thuggish face, the face of a "Ukrainian Interahamwe" - a monster created by the West, nurtured by the West for centuries, and a monster which is now armed and free to roam the Ukrainian land.

Ukie mob justice in action

This is what they did to a couple accused of dealing drugs:

In the meantime, the "popular lustrations" (mob attacks on people deemed "disloyal") continue, and even though they are completely illegal, the cops do nothing. Over the past 24 hours, many people, including at least one hospital director, have been brutally assaulted, tossed into trash containers and forced to sign letters of resignation.

On a semi-comical note, the Rada is now proposing that only those who have been officials in the previous administration for more than one full year be "lustrated". Why? Because Poroshenko served as Minister of Trade and Economic Development for Yanukovich for a little less than a year.

In reality none of this is funny in the least.  It is, however, significant because all these are clear signs of a society falling apart, of a social order basically destroyed and replaced by a rule by violence on all levels.  This is most important because a society which goes down that road cannot do anything but comprehensively collapse because, truly, it ceases to be a "society".

It is an open question as to whether there is really any kind of "authority" in the rump-Ukraine.  While Poroshenko appears to have some control over Kiev while Kolomoiskii "own" Odessa, it is only the Right Sector which has branches in all of the rump-Ukraine and enough activists to scare any official or civil servant from Lvov to Dnepropetrovsky and from Chernigov to Odessa.  This all begins to look eerily similar to Afghanistan, Libya or Iraq were one group (more or less) controls the capital while the rest of the country is completely out of control and run by various armed gangs.

The Ukraine was always a historical fiction, a completely artificial entity, originally conceived by the Papacy but which truly acquired a material form only thanks to Lenin and Stalin (they Ukies should be not be tossing down their statues, they should honor them as their "founding fathers, really).  But from 1991 through 2013 it did exist.  It was very imperfect and it suffered from many problems, but at least it did exist.  Now that Ukraine is gone forever.  If you boil an aquarium, it is easy to make fish soup out of it.  But you cannot turn a fish soup back into an aquarium.  What we are observing today is this process of "social boiling" from which there is no way back.

The Sake

An example of the Russian 5th column at work

Over the recent days bad economic news have been pouring in for Russia: the prices of bread, cheese, medicine, meats and many other product have been going up, some of them sharply.  At the same time, the Ruble has reached a new low against the Dollar which forced the Russian Central Bank to intervene to defend the Ruble.

No doubt, Obama would say that the sanctions are showing their effectiveness.

Except for one problem: no economist has been able to directly link the US/EU sanctions with what we are observing.  In fact, the reality is much simpler.

In the case of commodity prices what is happening is much simple: Russian companies have seized the opportunity presented by these sanctions to sharply raise their prices and make an extra profit.  So far, so good.  That was predictable.  In fact, the Russian government and Putin himself had predicted that and they had warned that the state would be closely monitoring any such price increases and that legal action would be taken against any speculators.

This is where things become interesting.

The person in charge of this monitoring is Arkadii Dvorkovich, Deputy Prime Minister in Dmitry Medvedev's cabinet has dismissed it all saying that when he goes shopping for bread he does not notice any price increases.  So who is this Dvorkovich character anyway?

Arkadii Dvorkovich

Turns out that he is a pure product of the Atlantic Integrationist clan.  Himself a rather modest oligarch (his official personal income in 2011 was only 4 millon Rubles), he is married to a much bigger oligarch, Zumrud Khandadashevna Rustamova, who, according to the Russian Wikipedia, is a member of the board of directors of major companies like the Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Kombinat, the gold mining Polius Zoloto, or the main Moscow airport Sheremetevo.  Her official yearly income is already a healthier 42 million Rubles.  Dvorkovich, who attended Duke University in the USA, is also involved in all sort of more or less shady companies and deals including the infamous Skolkovo project.

In fact, I would argue that Dvorkovich is so typical of the Atlantic Integrationists that he could be their poster boy.  By sabotaging the Kremlin's efforts to prevent Russian businesses to profit from the sanctions, Dvorkovich not only stands to get some terrific kickbacks, but he also contributes to the 5th columns efforts into convincing the general public that western sanctions are crippling Russia.

The good news is  that the Eurasian Sovereignists are fighting back and that several Russian TV channels have already reported about these abnormal price increases and about the fact that Dvorkovich seems to be doing exactly nothing about it.  

Over and over again we observe the same phenomenon: the President order the Prime Minister and his government to do something, and the latter just ignore him.  This is a typical example of how the 5th column works in Russia and, in the future, I plan to provide more examples of this here.

The Saker