The Russian military is muddying the waters

First, there was the announcement that Russia’s Defense Ministry will hold drills for reservists in all of the country’s military commands in August-October.  Now comes yet another announcement, this time that Russia's will be holding military exercises this week involving 100 aircraft in the west of the country near the Ukraine border.  This kind of activity does not mean that Russia is saber-rattling or somehow threatening anybody, much less so getting ready for war with NATO.  But, yes, Russia is definitely muddying the waters.

Such exercises are primarily designed to test the readiness of the armed forces, and it is quite possible that this is indeed their main goal this time, but one important side effect of such activity is to overwhelm the surveillance capabilities of the US/NATO by basically putting up so much activity on the US/NATO monitoring screens that something important could be easily hidden.  What exactly?

Well, the preparations from some kind of military move, of course.  Though I personally do not believe that Russia will move into the Donbass at this point.  Also, this kind of activity could be used to increase covert aid and even covert intervention.  Another option is to use this kind of "noise" to change the disposition of Russian forces.  Whatever may be the case, we can be pretty sure that the Russians are trying to give the US/NATO somewhat of a headache and to make them wonder what exactly Russia is up to.

The Saker

4th August Nigerian SITREP (General)

IMPORTANT

Nigerian Army alleges that explosives used by female suicide bombers in recent bomb attacks in Kano have been analysed and traced to a Chinese-run quarry in Yobe State of Northeast Nigeria that was overrun and seized by Boki Haram fighters last year.

However, none of the recent bombings involving female suicide bombers have been claimed by any of the Boko Haram groups.

Also sources in the Harakatul-Muhajiriin and its parent Ansorul-Muslimiin, have made it absolutely clear that they have nothing to do with the spate of female suicide bombers that terrorised Kano recently, they say they find the use of girls and women as suicide bombers reprehensible and they condemn it in its entirety as a "cowardly and desperate act that goes against the teachings of the Sheikh Muhammad Yusuf and the principles of Jihad Fii Sabilillah".

31st July: 10 year old girl wearing an explosive vest is arrested in Katsina State along with her handler who is a 19 year old female and a man driving a luxury SUV (Range Rover Sport) that brought the vest to the roadside where the 10 year old and her handler were waiting. More on that in a subsequent article In Shaa Allah.

Kano is hit by a fourth female suicide bomber in a week.

30th July: US Peace Corps evacuates volunteers from Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea over Ebola fears, as West African leaders announce a joint $100million fund to tackle outbreak.

3rd August: Cholera kills several people from Borno State at a camp for displaced persons displaced by the ongoing combined Borno Haram offensive in the Damboa area. The camp for IDPs (Internally Displaced Persons) is in Biu LGA where Jamaa'atu Ahlis-Sunnah of Sheikh Bukar Al-Barnawi holds sway.

Nigeria's Federal Government claims to have raised N60billion or $480million at a rich-only banquet/fundraiser for the Victims of Terror Support Fund launched by President Jonathan in Abuja recently. Critics slam the whole exercise as a parade of who is who in corruption in Nigeria, especially as Governor Rocha's Okorocha of IMO State was forced to cancel his earlier pledge of N10million or $55,000 and donate $10million or N1.67billion by President Jonathan, despite that this huge sum was not included in IMO State's budget for the year, nor was it approved by lawmakers in the state.

Nigerian Shia leader Sheikh Ibrahim Az-Zakzaki(Zakzaky) announces that rather than immediately resort to violence which may lead to fatal consequences for the country, he and his followers will first seek redress in court for the murder of his sons and dozens of his followers by the Nigerian military.

Cameroon's president, Paul Biya, dispatches his military chief to the Far North Region to along with more troops to stabilize the situation in that area with regard to the threat from Boko Haram (Harakatul-Muhajiriin and Ansorul-Muslimiin are the groups operating in that region).

Just the baseless hypothesis of an uninformed amateur, nothing more

First, a disclaimer: I am not a pilot nor an air traffic controller, and I never served with air defense units.  I did spend some time with an airforce, but my role was one of electronic intercept analysis.  So what follows are just the musings of an uninformed amateur.  Caveat emptor.

What I will try to do here is present a possible scenario which takes into account the basic facts established so far.  Here goes:

The plan was for the Ukies to shoot down the MH17 using a totally inappropriate aircraft: the Su-25, which is a "tree hugging" close air support aircraft.  Why?  After all, the Ukies do have some Mig-29s and even some Su-27, but these are much fewer in number and much easier to track.  A few of them have been seen in the skies over Novorussia, but only rarely.  In contrast, the Su-25 has been a ever-present presence in the skies ever since the conflict began.  Some say that the Su-25 cannot fly over 7'000m.  That is not true.  The problem is that it's cockpit is not pressurized, but the airframe itself has powerful engines which can bring the aircraft well over 10'000m.  All the pilot would need is some good warm clothing and an oxygen mask.  No, the big drawback of sending the Su-25 so high is that it's engines are not designed to be used at that altitude and that it will not be able to fly fast enough to catch-up with a cruising Boeing.  But what if the Su-25 carried a missile?

Turns out that the Su-25 can carry the R-60 air-to-air missile which can fly at over 3'000km per hour and thus easily catch up with a cruising airliner.  So the Su-25+R-60 combination has a flight envelope which is sufficient to attack a Boeing.

There is something else that the Su-25 lacks to function has an interceptor: a radar.  Well, this is not quite true, the Su-25 has a radar, but it is designed for navigation, not air-to-air combat.  However, the R-60 missile does not need a radar, it has its own infrared homing warhead. So if the pilot of the Su-25 can point his aircraft in the general direction of a heat emitting target, and if that target is not too fast or too far away, the R-60 will be able to lock on to it and close in.  The R-60 is a pretty small missile with a short range, under 8'000m, but it so happens that that Russian radar operators reported the Su-25 at about 3-5'000m from MH17.

Still, it is not easy to visually acquire the correct aircraft from the cockpit of a Su-25, then get within the correct range and then fire.  There are clouds, sunlight, other aircraft.  And the Su-25 has no air-to-air radar with a search and track mode.  So what could the Ukies have done?  Provided another radar?

In comes the 3 BukM1 transporter erector launcher and radar (TELAR) and the at least one early warning (long range) radar which all had just been moved in the day before MH17 was shot down, and then immediately withdrawn.  The radars  of each Buk TELAR and the long range early warning radar whose signal have been detected by the Russians could have easily guided the Su-25 to its target, either by a encrypted datalink or even by radio commands.

Combining all of the above, here is my totally primitive and possibly completely mistaken hypothesis:

The Ukies guided the Su-25 to MH17 by using the Buk radar capabilities.  As soon as he was in reach, the SU-25 fire a R-60 missile which hit one of the two engines.  At this point, the MH17 sharply turned to one side and lost altitude (the hit engine would lose power and its drag would sharply pull the Boeing to one side).  The Su-25 then easily closed in and opened fire with his cannon, which has a range of 4'000m, shredding the cockpit and cabin with 30mm rounds.  Had the pilot of the Su-25 failed to catch with MH17 or if the R-60 missile had failed, the Buks on the ground were ready to shoot, but they probably did not have to.  Once MH17 was clearly destroyed, the pilot of the Su-25 could have easily landed anywhere in the Ukraine without drawing any attention.

This was a good plan, but it failed to take into account the sharp turn made by MH17 which instead of continuing on its path towards Russia turned around and fell into a contested by Resistance-controlled field.

One more thing: if my hypothesis is correct and the first impact on MH17 was from a rather small R-60 missile (3kg warhead) into an engine, the flight deck did probably not suffer an immediate and catastrophic depressurization.  If so, the pilots would have had the time to report an explosion.  This is why the recordings of the Kiev ATC were seized by the SBU and why the result of the analysis of the flight recorders takes so much time: the Empire needs to wipe away the recording of the pilots' last words.  Conversely, if  MH17 had been destroyed by a BukM1 missile (70kg warhead) the depressurization would have been immediate and catastrophic.  The problem with wiping the flight recorders is that if the pilots had the time to send a mayday then it would have been recorded not only by the USA and Russia, but by at least two more West European countries.  Even if the latter would comply with the US orders, the Americans are probably terrified that the Russians have the recordings of the MH17's mayday and they are probably trying to negotiate a deal with Russia.  If not, they need to carefully prepare the public opinion by, for example, organizing careful leaks through the Dutch and Malaysian press to say that nothing was recorded in order to denounce any recording presented by Russia as a "fake".  All of this is, again, pure speculation on my part.

Ok, now please feel free to tear this hypothesis into shreds.  These are just the musings of an amateur and most definitely not an expert opinion.  I submit it only as a basis for discussion.

Kind regards,

The Saker

Two Ukrainian SITREPs

El Murid SITREP, August 1, 2014
Defeating a Large Group of the Punitive Forces Could Start a Chain Reaction

Original: El Murid LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov

Photograph: Viktor Drachev / AFP

According to Russia Today (Experts: Kiev Military Operation is doomed to failure because of internal contradictions)


“… Kiev is unable successfully to conduct the military operation in the east of the country, as it is not in complete control of all the military formations that are engaged in the so-called ATO …

… Inside the Ukrainian army, the principles of subordination have been breached: direct executors are in no hurry to implement the orders of the command and often perceive these orders as “recommdendations”. According to the agency’s source, the military is refusing to conduct artillery strikes of cities and “does not demonstrate sufficient activity during sweeps and purges" …”

In many ways, the conclusions reached in RT’s analysis are absolutely fair. Objectively, the Ukrainian army is simply a worse clone of Division SS “Galychyna”. Samostiyna [Note: Ukrainian for “independent”] Ukraine is unable to create anything better.

Today, the punitive forces suffered yet another defeat – remnants of the 25th Aeromobile Brigade, Battalion Dnepr, as well as other rabble-like units that attached or strayed to them, were surrounded in the Shakhters-Torez-Snezhnoye area.

The defeat of this grouping is the outcome of the ramming offensive tactics using mass numbers of tanks and other military hardware, followed first by sweeps and purges with the aid of sonderkommando and then by the establishment of checkpoints. With invariable consistency, again and again, such tactics has led to the same outcome – the punitive forces are drawn into a narrow corridor of an “intestine” that is wide-open to artillery fire. Once the main ramming force of the collected horde is exhausted, the Militia cuts the “intestine” down the flanks and surrounds and eliminates that Nazis gathered in the cauldron.

It appeared, at first, that the goal of the current offensive in this area may have been achieved – the punitive forces were able even, for a short period of time, to cut off the last remaining road connecting DPR with LPR and Russia. With our own eyes we saw how the Nazis immediately began to exterminate civilians, murdering them in buses and cars travelling to the east.

However, the colossal military hardware losses, which are practically inevitable with such a catastrophically unprepared offensive operation, predictably led to the same outcome. It is likely that it will take several days to finish off the remnants of the Ukrainian forces that ended up being enricled; however, overall, everything is pointing to Kiev’s latest gamble ending in failure.

It should be mentioned that the situation for the Junta is becoming not only difficult, but threatening. Two waves of mobilization enabled the army to conscript up to seventy thousand men of military personnel. However, because these men and equipment were entered into battle in a very chaotic manner, without proper teamwork training, with extremely low quality of combat training, and with equipment in an appalling state of disrepair, as a result, the Junta just splashed gasoline on damp wood. The offensive burst into flames and just as quickly died down. The wood remains damp, and gasoline has run out.

There is a stalemate – instead of building an army and preparing it for a decisive strike, Kiev is continuously forced to throw its newly created units at the front, plugging up holes and wasting time in senseless offensive operations. This process cannot be stopped – the Militia will seize the initiative and crush the remnants of the armies of Kiev. By throwing increasing number of ever-more inferior troops into the fire, Kiev only prolongs the agony, as it no longer has the ability to conduct a decisive offensive.

The Militia is faced with a similar predicament – it cannot fully control such a large territory and is force to organize a focal defence, divert its forces to control roads and constantly to maneuver with extremely low reserves to repel attacks from various directions. This critical situation continues. It can no longer be said that the Ukrainian punitive forces possess an overwhelming superiority – according to Strelkov, the punitive forces mix up their battle formations in completely unimaginable ways, resulting in the loss of control and the complete absence of coordination. However, it cannot be said the Militia has been able to force the situation in its favour.

It appears that a defeat of a large grouping of the punitive forces could give birth to a chain reaction – the Militia would free up its troops and begin successively, increasing its efforts, to finish off the semi-defeated hordes of the enemy. It is still to early to claim a decisive advantage, but the preconditions for this are gradually forming

And now for the sad part. On August 1, the Militia and the Ukrainian army exchanged their dead and prisoners near Shakhtersk. A preliminary examination has revealed that four of the dead were finished off in a barbaric fashion – with a knife. The fifth was strangled. The exchange of prisoners was even more terrifying – two live militiamen were returned to the Militia with the heaviest of injuries, broken bones, and beaten to a pulp lungs and viscera. The medics have already pronounced that there is nothing they can do – people were practically beaten to death.

The Commande-in-Chief gave an order – [officers] of the punitive 25th Brigade are not to be taken prisoner – and took the responsibility himself. Commanders conducting exchange negotiations with the Nazis were instructed immediately to report this to the commander of the 25th Brigade. In my opinion, this decision is absolutely justified. Crimes of this nature should receive an adequate response.

Latest from the Southern Cauldron - The Inevitable Finale
The Militia: Ukrainian Equipment and Light Arms Must be Left Intact and Surrendered, Safe Passage Only Through Russia

Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov
Photograph: The Inevitable End for Any Fascist

According to the Ukrainian Minister of Defence, Valeriy Geletei, as quoted by Obozrevatel.com:

Ukraine lost seven military transport aircraft in repeated attempts to deliver cargo with food and ammunition to the soldiers of the 72nd Mechanized and the 79th Aeromobile Brigades.

This was announced by the Ukrainian Minister of Defence, Valeriy Geletei, during a live broadcast of the “Shuster Live” talk show.

Geletei stated: “The situation on the border with Russia is very difficult. We lost seven aircraft while delivering cargo to our forces on the border.” According to him, the provisioning of Ukrainian fighters with food and weaponry has been severely compromised because “the terrorists have everything that the Russian army has in its arsenal.”

Amusingly, Geletei’s numbers exceed the information provided by militiamen, who claim that to have downed a total of four transport aircraft.

And now for the latest news from the Southern Cauldron from a person who attended the surrender negotiations.

The situation is such that the encircled group of Junta forces is now sitting in the area of Krasnopartisansk, having rolled away from the border.

Their food rations ran out this morning, and they have a minimal amount of drinking water left. There is ammunition only for light arms, and even this will last for another couple of days of fighting at most.

At the meeting, the Junta representative set out conditions requiring that they be permitted to destroy all the military hardware (altogether approximately seventy units; there is no fuel for 90% of the surviving vehicles, and there is virtually no ammunition) and granted safe passage to Ukraine after surrendering all the light arms and the remaining ammunition.

Quite reasonably, the Militia representatives responded that the military hardware must be left intact, that all the light arms must be surrendered and that the passage should lie through the territory of the Russian Federation, with the soldiers being given the opportunity voluntarily to decide whether they desire to continue participating in what is happening or to remain in Russia.

In the event of a refusal, the positions of the surrounded troops will continue to be leveled using MLRS and cannon artillery, especially since they have long been investigated and there has been no problem in covering them with artillery for over a week. According to the estimates of our source, the approximate term for the approximate deadline for the termination of the Southern Cauldron saga is 2-3 days (this is an optimistic prognosis; a realist one suggests 4-5 days), simply due to the running out of the remaining ammunition and the issues with drinking water.

There have been no battles as such, the Militia simply continues to blockade the encircled forces without entering into close combat, preferring instead simply to shell the surrounded troops with cannon and rocket artillery.

In view of the large losses of the enemy’s military transport aviation, the delivery of supplies has been practically reduced to zero, and the aircraft that manage to break through the Militia’s air defences are forced to drop their cargo from a significant height, as a result of which part of such cargo falls on the territory controlled by the Milita. However, even if 100% of the cargo were reaching the Southern Cauldron, it still would not have been enough.

The Militia should, of course, speed up the process, as the freed-up forces and the potential trophies will enable it to stabilize the front and to commence preparations for a counteroffensive.

"It’s perfectly simple. You need to kill 1.5 million people in Donbass"

Ukrainian Journalist Openly Calls for Genocide on Hromadske TV, Financed by the US and the Netherlands

Preamble: Hromadske TV is now officially the Ukrainian version of Rwandan RTLM. Just like RTLM called for the extermination of the Tutsi, calling them Inyenzi, or cockroaches, so now Hromadske TV is legitimizing the genocide of the population of Novorossiya. From Inyenzi to Colorados, we have come full circle. Hromadske TV, this mouthpiece of Ukrainian genocide, is financed directly by US and Dutch embassies. The blood of the population of Novorossiya is on all our hands - we have allowed this to happen. Please circulate this as widely as you can and stand witness to this Holocaust.



Transcript: "It’s perfectly simple. You need to kill 1.5 million people in Donbass"

Translated from Ukrainian by Valentina Lisitsa

Bogdan Boutkevitch: Ok, you ask me "How can this be happening?" Well, it happens because Donbass, in general, is not simply a region in a very depressed condition, it has got a whole number of problems, the biggest of which is that it is severely overpopulated with people nobody has any use for. Trust me I know perfectly well what I am saying.

If we take, for example, just the Donetsk oblast, there are approximately 4 million inhabitants, at least 1.5 million of which are superfluous. That's what I mean: we don't need to [try to] "understand" Donbass, we need to understand Ukrainian national interests.

Donbass must be exploited as a resource, which it is. I don't claim to have a quick solution recipe, but the most important thing that must be done - no matter how cruel it may sound - is that there is a certain category of people that must be exterminated.
-------

Hromadske TV is Financed Directly by US and Dutch Embassies

1. Link to the Hromadske TV Annual Financial Report, 2013 - the US and Dutch embassies and George Soros implicated.
2. Link to the Hromadske TV Annual Financial Report, 2014 - again, clear evidence of US financing of this genocidal TV Station.

Glory to the heroes, to the heroes glory!

Poster by Josetxo Ezcurra

Aug 1 SITREP from Colonel Cassad & Two Analyses of the Military Situation in Novorossiya and Answers to Important Questions

Hostilities in Novorossiya - Briefings, August 1, 2014

Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov

Map: Positions of the Factions near Shakhtersk



The end of day on August 1, 2014 saw the Ukrainian army retreat in several areas of the front. Specifically, the Ukrainian military abandoned three border crossing checkpoings at Dolzhanskiy, Izvarino and Chervonopartizansk and retreated from Saur-Mogila, which it unsuccessfully attempted to occupy for several days. This is most likely related to the effective work of the artillery units of the Novorossiya Militia, as well as to the overall significant losses sustained by the Ukrainian army. In its turn, the Ukrainian army made attempts to take control of Krasnogorovka, Yasinovataya and Maryinka, and even, as usual, rushed to report that the assaults were successful. In reality, however, the units of the Ukrainian army that attempted to enter these settlements were repelled and, having sustained losses, retreated.
DPR (Donetsk People’s Republic)

On August 1, 2014, artillery shelling continued in the districts of Donetsk. In the area of the Kalinin mine there was heavy smoke; in the areas of Shirokiy and Kirovskiy explosions could be heard. Heavy self-propelled artillery and howitzers were used in the strikes. Unknown (presumably a Saboteur-Reconnaisance Group (“SRG”) of the Ukrainian side) shot at the “Novorossiya” campaign tent in Donetsk, on Gornaya street, not far from the railway terminal. One volunteer died. On July 31, 2014, as a result of the actions of a Ukrainian SRG, Alexander Prosyolkov, leader of the Eurasian Youth Union of the South Federal District of Russia and Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of DPR, was killed.

Map: Positions of the Factions near Donetsk



Starting at about 13:00, the Ukrainian side commenced an offensive on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk, coming from the side of the settlements of Pobeda and Karlkovka, using approximately forty armoured vehicles. In a sudden attack, the Ukrainian forces were able to take control of the checkpoint to the southwest of Maryinka. Simultaneously, an offensive on Krasnogorovka was also underway. The units of the Milita retreated directly into these settlements. As of 16:30, fighting was ongoing in Maryinka, and no information about losses had been made available. Around lunchtime, the units of the volunteer Ukrainian corps “Praviy Sector”, reinforced with military hardware of the 51st Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, appeared on the approaches to Krasnogorovka atop several armoured vehicles and were met by the militiamen. Having suffered losses in manpower and armoured equipment, the attackers retreated. Control over Krasnogorovka was retained by the Militia.

On the northern outskirts of Donetsk, fighting continues between the Militia and the Ukrainian military. In particular, the Ukrainian military attempted to take control of the northern suburbs of Donetsk – Yasinovataya. Their goal was to cut off Gorlovka from Donetsk. Tank units tried to occupy Yasinovataya, but the attempted assault was repelled.

In the area of the Donetsk airport, controlled by the Ukrainian forces, howitzer fire could be heard.

In the course of today’s artillery shelling by the Ukrainian army, the city of Pervomaisk seriously suffered, with numerous instances of destruction in the residential areas. It appears that the Ukrainian army is preparing a strike on the city, which is occupied by the Militia, from the direction of Popasnaya (to the west) and Lisichansk (to the north), with the intention to advance toward Stakhanov.

In the course of the battles for Shakhters, the 25th Brigade was almost entirely eliminated. It suffered not only large losses in terms manpower (at least 23 dead, while the number of woulded is unknown) and in terms of military hardware (30 armoured vehicles were destroyed, and 2 BMPs were captured), but also lost virtually all the artillery that was in its possession. Also on August 1, 2014, an exchange of prisoners took place – two captured militiamen were exchanged for two captured “paratroopers”. However, while each of the Militia’s prisoners left on his own two feet, the militiamen were returned by the Ukrainian army in very serious condition (it is highly likely that they were subjected to beatings and torture, and it is unclear whether they will survive or not). Following this incident, Strelkov ordered that no officer of the 25th Brigade is be taken prisoner.

It was also reported during the day that a column of Ukrainian tanks was advancing on Shakhtersk; however, after being shelled by the Militia’s artillery, the tanks stopped their advance and began to dig in.

Overall, fighting with the semi-encircled grouping of the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued in the Shakhtersk-Snezhnoye-Torez region. The remnants of the 25th Aeromobile Brigade, Battalion Dnepr-1 and supply units were ended up being surrounded. In the night of July 31st-August 1st, a battle took place in the settlement of Serditoye, located between the settlement of Zugres and Shakhtersk on the Donetsk-Snezhnoye highway. The Ukrainian military sought to break out of the encirclement with a column of armoured vehicles and infantry and also attempted to destroy the checkpoint of the Militia in the area of the Davidovka village by shelling it, but failed. At this time, the encirclement of the enemy’s grouping from the north is nearing completion.

Map: Positions of the Factions near Shakhtersk



To the south of the settlement of Snezhnoye, the units of the Militia continued conducting artillery strikes on the positions of the enemy in the vicinity of the settlements of Stepanovka, Saurovka, Amvrosievka (up to 5 different armoured vehicles and two stacks of ammunition were destroyed), Blagodatnoye, as well as near Saur-Mogila. Also, as a result of successful artillery shelling, the Militia destroyed an enemy military base near Elenovka, which housed MLRS units, howitzers, an ammunition depot, and enemy personnel. Over 90% of the armaments and personnel was eliminated.

At approximately 14:30 (MSK), near Shakhters, fighters of Motorola’s unit stationed at Checkpoint No. 20 on the Donetsk-Snezhnoye highway shot down a Ukrainian military craft (a Soviet-made Tu-143 “Reis”).

The 34th Kirovograd Battalion, deployed near Gorlovka, on one of the heights, is experiencing a serious lack of military hardware, bulletproof vests and footwear. A tank they have been provided does not have a working night-vision apparatus. Among 30 men they only have 6 bulletproof vests.

In the night of July 31st-August 1st, the units of the 1st Reconnaissance Company attacked an enemy checkpoint near the settlement of Andreevka, to the south of Donetsk. The checkpoint was eliminate. One tank and two BMPs were destroyed.

In the morning of August 1, at approximately 07:00 (MSK), the Ukrainian army conducted an airstrike on the settlement of Nizhnyaya Krynka (DPR), located not far from Khartsyzsk.

After multiple unsuccessful attempts to take control of Saur-Mogila, the Ukrainian army has retreated from this strategic height. Saur-Mogila remains firmly in the hands of the Militia.
LPR (Lugansk People’s Republic)

Uragan MLRS and aerial bombs were used to bombard Lugansk. As a result of artillery shelling, the Ukrainian army destroyed two of the city’s electrical substations. Around midnight, the Ukrainian army conducted yet another mortar-artillery strike on the Yakira district of the city. There are multiple instances of destruction in various areas of Lugansk, including in the Artyomovsk and the Zhovtnevyy districts. The shelling caused several fires in at least eight separate locations. As a result of the shelling by the Ukrainian army High-School No. 4 and the supermarket “Lugan’” were damaged. An exploding shell shattered windowpanes in the building next to High-School No. 4 and damaged the façade of the building. A wall of the supermarket “Lugan’” was destroyed after being hit by a shell.

The numbers of killed and wounded are being confirmed. Lugansk continues to experience interruptions in the supply of electricity. Lighting is available in approximately 1/6th of the city (the regional hospital has electricity).

During the day, information came in that the Ukrainian army had abandoned it positions near the Dolzhanskiy, Izvarino and Chervonopartizansk border crossing checkpoints, located on the border with the Russian Federation. A bit later reports started coming that a battle was taking place in the area of the Dolzhanskiy border crossing checkpoint.

Map: Border Crossing Checkpoints Abandoned by Ukraine


Kiev Continues Actively to Redeploy Additional Forces to Novorossiya

On August 1, at 18:20, a column of Ukrainian vehicles, comprised of at least 18 elements (primarily trucks), was noticed on the road from the Kharkov airport toward Balakleya.

Also on August 1, a column of Ukrainian military hardware passed through Kiev. The column included 8 trucks with infantry, with each vehicle towing a ZU-23-2 antiaircraft unit.

On July 31, at approximately 21:30, a train with 6 transport cars with ammunition arrived at the Braginovka station (in a Dnepropetrovsk region village bearing the same name) from the direction of Pavlograd. The train remained there until 05:00 on August 1, while the ammunition was being unloaded.This is not the first time that train cars with ammunition have arrived in Braginovka (it appears that a transit base with a depot has been established there). The train car numbers were: 24455883, 24537847, 24532863, 24540676, 24542821, and 24626715.

Two columns with six Uragan MLRS each, supply cars, and personnel passed from Zaporozhye to Donetsk. In the area of Mariupol, active movement of the columns of the Ukrainian army with Uragan MLRS was observed. In particular, military hardware was spotted near Berdyansk, coming from the side of Tokmak. The column was comprised of 15 units of military hardware, among which were several Uragan MLRS, ammunition and loading vehicles, a refueling vehicle, as well as one BTR and several transport trucks. And at 13:30, up to 10 ammunition transportation and loading vehicles (presumable 9T452, intended for Uragan MLRS) and two transport trucks passed through the settlement of Osipenko in the Berdyansk area, heading toward Mariupol.

Map: Ukrainian Troop Movements near Mariupol


Miscellaneous

Over the last three days, in the area of Slavyansk, at night, regular sorties of the Ukrainian air force have been observed, flying from the Chuguev airport toward Donetsk (according to some information, no fewer than 16 flight-worthy aircraft are based there). From approximately 01:00 at night and until 08:00 in the morning, there are at least 10 flights over the city. During the day the flights are less frequent. They pass quite high, and can only be identified by the sound of the jet engines. First, a lighter aircraft passes (possibly a Su plane, perhaps something else – to draw the attention of MANPADS), followed by a heavy propeller aircraft.

At about midnight, coming from Karachun, there were two heavy volleys, separated by three minutes. Their direction is unknown.

Over the past day, 48 wounded fighters from the area of the punitive operation in Novorossiya were delivered to three hospitals in Dnepropetrovsk. Among them were paratroopers that were ambushed by the Militia near Shakhtersk.

Unknown shot the head of the Dokuchaev city policy department, Vasiliy Ryabokon, and a precinct police inspector.

Two Analyses of the Military Situation in Novorossiya and Answers to Important Questions




Brief Overview of the Military Situation, July 30, 2014

Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov

The Junta offensive has petered out in most areas. The ambitious plans of encirclement of Donetsk and Gorlovka has failed. The Ukrainian Minister of Defence, Valeriy Geletei, has announced that the Junta’s capacity for offensive operations has been exhausted, following which the Junta started to make inquiries in Belarus, with the intention of having Lukashenko act as an intermediary in negotiations. The Junta is in desperate need of a break to continue regrouping and concentrating its forces. In general, while the situation is difficulty, it is clearly leaning in favour of the Militia, which has been able to repel a massive offensive by a regular army on most fronts.

Particularly sensitive was the Junta’s defeat in the areas of Shakhtersk and Saur-Mogila, where even the deployment at the front lines of over 250 armoured vehicles did not achieve in any way appreciable results. Nevertheless, the occupation of the larger part of Debaltsevo has complicated the lines of communication between DPR [Donetsk People’s Republic] and LPR {Lugansk People’s Republic] is allowing the danger of encirclement of Donetsk and Gorlovka from the north to persist. While, in view of the defeat near Shakhtersk, there can no longer be talk of a complete encirclement of Donetsk, the Junta, having fortified itself in Debaltsevo, might try to attempt the less ambitious task of encirclement of Gorlovka. The Junta retains sufficient strength to do so, and, in essence, the area of the front between Gorlovka and Alchevsk remains the only one where the Junta is still able to undertake an offensive aimed at achieving serious operational goals. That is why we should not rush in saying that the Junta offensive has completely failed. In the very near term, the battles for Debaltsevo will demonstrate whether the Junta is able to advance any further, or we will gradually see the Junta forces enter a period of serious difficulties.
The Hubris of the Southern Intestine, July 30, 2014

Original: Comment at Yurasumy LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov

The catastrophe of the “Southern Intestine” did not occur because operational information was leaked. With the availability of means of surveillance from space, reconnaissance drones and mobile telephones the very concept of “military secrecy” has become purely theoretical. Any large redeployment of military hardware, material resources and personnel will be discovered by the enemy in mere minutes, maximum in a few hours.

The death of the Ukrainian troops in the “Southern Intestine” was caused not by errors at the level of strategic planning (from a purely military standpoint no such errors were committed).

This catastrophe was predetermined by the decisions made by at the highest level of the systemic hierarchy – at the level of the basic foundations of the worldview and the overall cultural level of the people that planned the armed forces group operation “Cordon”.

Only Americans, “Yankees”, could put forward an idea of the “boa constrictor encirclement” of the territory of the enemy. No one other than them has this idea embedded in their subconscious. Whereas for Americans, “Yankees”, this idea is inherent at the level of their national self-identification – as a base military-strategic mythologem of modern American statehood, born in the throes of the victory by the North over the South in the American Civil War.

And only Americans could so utterly miss the option of voluntary withdrawal by Strelkov’s Brigade from Slavyansk. And the reason is elementary – their lack, at the level of the subconscious, of centuries of experience of European military history. The option of voluntary surrender to the enemy without battle of their most important stronghold, which, to the very last day, was being pumped full of all sorts of resources, simply did not fit in their head! 

Brief Answers to Important Questions, August 2, 2014

Original: Colonel Cassad LiveJournal
Translated from Russian by Gleb Bazov

What is happening on the northern outskirts of Donetsk? – The enemy has taken Avdeevka and is concentrating its forces for an assault on Yasinovataya; the offensive is expected tomorrow or the day after tomorrow.

What is happening with the Southern Cauldron? – According to confirmed information, negotiations with respect to the surrender of a part of the surrounded forces are ongoing at this exact moment. Approximately 1,500 men are ready to surrender; they are asking for passage to the territory of the Junta in exchange for surrendering all their weapons, the remaining ammunition and the surviving military hardware (altogether approximately 60-70 armoured vehicles, most of which are without fuel, including up to 30 tanks, BMPs, BTRs, Grad MLRS, as well as a number of artillery pieces).

What is happening in Lutugino? – The enemy has dug in in the centre of the city and is transferring in reservers from the north of Lugansk in order to create a grouping for further offensive operations to the west of Lugansk. The Militia is concentrating its forces in order to attempt to retake Lutugino.

What is happening in Marinovka? – Having taken Marinovka, the enemy attempted to advance further toward the surrounded grouping of its forces, but failed. Artillery fire complicates the movement of the enemy forces and, despite taking control of Marinovka, it was unable to complete the strategic task of de-blockading the Southern Cauldron.

What is happening near Saur-Mogila? – Saur-Mogila is firmly controlled by the Militia despite being semi-encircled; attempts to conquer the height are being thwarted by the lack of infantry and its low combat qualities. Artillery and tanks are unable, at this time, to compensate for this deficiency.

What is happening in Shakhtersk? – Everything is in order near Shakhtersk, as well as near Torez and Snezhnoye; the 25th “Aero-grave” Paratrooper Brigade that broke through on July 27th sustained large losses in terms of killed, wounded and captured personnel and lost its offensive capabilities. The enemy is unable to transfer its reserves to this area – all the reserves have already been deployed in the area of Marinovka and Saur-Mogila. Accordingly, the enemy will be unable to proceed further here without regrouping its forces.

Will Donetsk be encircled? – Because the assault through Shakhtersk and Debaltsevo failed, the Junta will seek to perform a close encirclement, with the next strike to be performed by the northern grouping. The nearest task is to take control of Yasinovataya, followed by an assault on Enakievo. If this plan is realized, then the situation in Donetsk from the standpoint of lines of communication will become threatening.

What is happening with Vostok? – At this time, there are three different groups of forces operating under the name of Vostok (one of them, instead of fighting, is engaged in racketeering in Donetsk). The name has successfully turned into a brand. In the near future we can expect new draconian orders aimed at the elimination of banditry at the rear lines.

What is happening with Borodai? – For now, Borodai will continue to retain his position; he will return to Donetsk after concluding all the pending business in Moscow and Rostov.

What is happening in Stakhanov and Alchevsk? – Having withdrawn from the Lisichansk Protrusion, Mozgovoi’s group redeployed to their new positions and continues to rattle the enemy with their attacks in the area of Pervomaisk, Popasnaya, and to the north of Debaltsevo. Their main assignment is not to allow the enemy with impunity to entrench itself on the occupied territory (resulting in the control over Pervomaisk and Popasnaya passing back and forth between the warring factions), as well as to draw onto itself a part of the enemy forces to prevent the Ukrainian army from immediately starting an offensive from Debaltsevo deep into the DPR. In essence, their goal is to draw fire.

What is happening with the Lugansk airport? – The airport continues to be blockaded; the enemy’s attempts to break out continue to fail. Daily, the airport is shelled using 3-5 Grad MLRS and several mortars. It is expected that, if the Southern Cauldron is dealt with in the next few days, then at least one battery of D-30 howitzers can be transferred to continue strikes on the airport.

Additional information of interest: a Swedish prosecutor has recognized that what is happening in Ukraine ought to be considered a war, rather than an “anti-terrorist operation”. Details will be made available in the nearest future.

August 2nd Iraq SITREP by Mindfriedo

1st Aug: UN figures for fatalities in Iraq in July: 1,737 Iraqis killed, 1,978 injured
1st Aug: The Iraqi Air force attacks gatherings of Daash/rebel fighters in Jurf Al Sakhar, North West of Musayib in Babil province south of Baghdad. The attacks result in 200 militants being killed.
1st Aug: Daash rebel attack Peshmerga positions to the north of Mosul. The attack was on an oil terminal and dam. The check post of Zumar was also attacked. Fourteen Peshmergas were reported killed in the fighting.
1st Aug: Daash launches an assault on the town of Jurf al-Sakhr, south of Baghdad. The attack started with a mortar barrage and led to the deaths of 11 Iraqi Soldiers and 12 fighters belonging to the Asaib Ahl al Haq. Another 7 soldiers were injured when the Iraqi army counter attacked.
1st Aug: A fire broke out on an oil pipeline in Bajwan village in Kirkuk. The fire was brought quickly under control.
2nd Aug: Daash/rebels have appropriated salaries that were paid to government staff in Nineveh province by the Federal Government. Displaced employees of the government are now requesting that their salaries be paid to them in their new locations where they can be/were engaged in providing other services. The government had earlier decided to hold salaries in areas where it has lost ground till after the end of the conflict.
2nd Aug: Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, the former speaker of Iraq warns of the consequences of delays in forming a national unity government. He has asked all political blocks to work together.
2nd Aug: Peshmerga forces amass and launch a multi pronged attack on Daash held territory west and north west of Mosul: Zammar and Rabia. Peshmerga forces used heavy weaponry, tanks and mortar launchers. Over 90 Daash/rebel fighters are believed dead and another 45 captured.
Peshmerga forces are reporting that the Daash captives were under the influence of drugs.
2nd Aug: The Iraqi army launches an artillery strike near Haditha in Anbar. The strike was based on intelligence inputs and resulted in the death of Omar Adel al-Ani, Ali Tariq Dallah Ali, and Omar Abdul Razak al-Rawi. The army reported the deaths of Mahdi Ahmed al-Rawi, Khaled Hassan al-Rawi, Yassin Najeh al-Rawi, Amin Hilal al-Rawi, and Muhammad Muslim al-Rawi in Anbar as well. All eight men are being described as the “most dangerous” men.
2nd Aug: Daash has doubled its personnel manning checkpoints in Mosul. This has been in response to increasing attacks on Daash members in Mosul. Eight to 25 Daash militants are believed to have been killed in recent weeks. The attacks seem to have intensified after the destruction of Shrines in Mosul.
2nd Aug: Daash carries out an assault on Hamrin, 50 km north of Baqouba in Diyala, and beheads 17 volunteer militia fighters. The executed men belonged to the Chosen Brigade.
2nd Aug: The Zarkosh clan in the north of Baqouba, Diyala has formed militias to fight against Daash/rebel fighters. The clan has assisted the security forces in attacking Daash in Hamrin and Imam Wees, killed 30 Daash fighters and cleared the roads leading up to these areas. The Zarkosh clan is Kurdish.
2nd Aug: Daash and allied rebels launch another offensive on Jalawala but are forced to withdraw by its Peshmerga defenders. Daash fighters withdrew to al-Wehda and al-Tajneed suburbs in the south of the city that they now control.
2nd Aug: Three gifts from Daash to the women of Mosul:
Niqaab: Hijab of any other kind, other than the one that covers even the face and consists of unshapely apparel, has been banned by Daash. Women are being forced to wear the all encumbering veil. During the Eid holiday, women accompanying their families not following the diktat of Daash were prevented to enter amusement parks and forests on the outskirts of Mosul. Makeup is also banned and women are being asked to wash their faces before entering Public Buildings.
Female Circumcision: Daash is denying rumors that they had made it mandatory for women to undergo circumcision. The women of Mosul have never been known to follow this practice.
List of Eligible Widows: Cases of forced marriages have been reported where Daash fighters have forcibly married girls that were denied to them earlier. Daash has used mosques in Mosul to compile a list of women whose husbands have died in the recent fighting. These lists are to help Daash fighters take additional wives. Welcome to Saudi Ar…
2nd Aug: The Kurdish Change Bloc headed by the Hoshyar Abdullah is calling on Fuad Masum, President of Iraq, to use his powers in more than just a nominal role. Abdullah claims that the powers of the President are executive and not ceremonial.
2nd Aug: Iran has denied claims that 200 of its elite “Advisors” have entered Iraqi Kurdistan. Regional press was reporting that the fighters/advisors entered the region under an agreement with Jalal Talibani, former President and head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan.
2nd Aug: Jordan has decided to suspend its flights to Iraq till the improvement of the security situation and till after it has consulted with its ally the United States.
2nd Aug: A car bomb explodes in the south of Tikrit and injures 14 civilians
2nd Aug: Daash has been burying its dead in Rbidha village, Eastern Tikrit. Locals witnessed Daash driving the corpses to the location.
2nd Aug: Government claims for the day:
13 Daash fighters killed in north eastern Baqouba. The militants that included foreign fighters were killed in Jibal Sidoor area of Muqdadiya
The Iraqi Air Force attacks 8 vehicles belonging to Daash/rebel fighters in Himreen, Diyala and kills 15 of them
The Iraqi Air Force strikes Daash/rebels in Anbar, destroys four pieces of heavy equipment, destroyed 7 vehicles and kills 60. The air strikes took place in Haditha district.

Related News:
30th July to 2nd Aug: The DI of Daash is facing an uprising of its own. The Shaitat tribe in Eastern Syria has attacked and dislodged Daash fighters from Abu Hamam, Kashkiyeh and Ghranij villages in Deir Ezzor Eastern Syria. Clashes are continuing on the outskirts of al-Bukamal, al-Tayyana and al-Mayadeen towns in Deir Ezzor province. The set back has dislodged Daash from Syria’s Oil Rich regions.
The clashes started when Daash fighters detained seven members of the Shaitat tribe and claimed they were being held for being traitors. The Shaitat tribe had an agreement with Daash that its members were not to be harmed in exchange for neutrality.
1st-2nd Aug: Syrian Soldiers along with Hezbollah fighters kill over 50 Jihadists in the Qalamoun region of Syria.
2nd Aug: Two Lebanese Army soldiers are killed when trying to prevent Jihadists from entering Lebanon in the Lebanese city of Ersal.
Armed fighters were earlier preparing to confront reinforced army troops who had earlier arrested a Nusra Front Commander. Abu Ahmad Jomaa was the commander detained.
2nd Aug: Iran plans to build the largest gas complex in Bushehr, Iran
2nd Aug: Syrian news agency, SANA, is reporting gains against rebels
http://www.sana.sy/en/?p=8726

Further Reading:
Links that provide excellent information on Walid Jumblatt and the Druze in Syria, Lebanon and Israel and their conflicting loyalties:
http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/15162
http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/5157
http://www.globalresearch.ca/hezbollah-fighting-in-syria-to-defend-lebanon-from-bloodbath/5340688
Questions being raised about the true nature of Daash:
http://english.al-akhbar.com/content/why-isn%E2%80%99t-islamic-state-fighting-israel

"Panikhida" by Vera Narishkin

From the original YouTube page: 

Panikhida - A Panikhida is a memorial service which is a liturgical solemn service for the repose of the departed, in the Eastern Orthodox Church.
Dedicated to all those killed in Eastern Ukraine (Novorossiya): Children, women, old people, men, militia and soldiers.
On July 2nd 2014, Ukrainian planes attacked the village Lugansk Cossack village and village Kondrashovka.
The city of Lugansk also was attacked with mortars and by Ukrainian soldiers.
On May 2nd 2014, 114 people were killed by Pravy Sektor in the House of Trade Unions, Odessa. They were shot, burnt to death, and a near-term pregnant woman was raped and strangled.

July 31st - August 1st Iraq SITREP by Mindfriedo

Correction: The report regarding the resettlement of 10000 families by the government of Baghdad to four provinces of Central Iraq, dated

26th July, should in fact read 10000 individuals, not families.
25th July: Indian Sunni Cleric Salman Nadvi writes a letter to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia offering to raise an army of 500000 Sunni Muslim volunteers from India to help fight in Iraq (against Shia militias) and establish a Saudi backed Caliphate.
28th July: The government of Iraqi Kurdistan has approached a Texas court in the United States that states that the oil that was aboard the United Kalavrvta vessel was owned and lawfully belongs to Iraqi Kurdistan and can be sold by them. The Kurdistan Government has also informed the court that the matter does not fall within the jurisdiction of a US court.
30th July: The Judge hearing the dispute over the ownership of the oil being carried by United Kalavrta in the United States has stopped the ship from offloading its cargo in Houston, Texas.
30th July: Arabt camp in Sulaimaniyeh that used to house Syrian refugees will now be empties of Syrians to house Iraqi Refugees displaced internally.
31st July: Playing with Demographics: Daash has cleared the centre of Saadia, Diyala of Shiites and Kurds. It has also been spreading the rumor that the Shia Kurds there are trying to expel Sunnis from there.
31st July: Christoph Katsaan, the Charge d’affaires of France to Iraq visits with the Iraqi President Fuad Masum and delivers a letter from French President Francois Hollande.
31st July: Daash fighters reenter the south of Jalawala that was freed last week. Daash managed to enter the town after the Peshmergas acted slowly in redeploying to the recently freed south. Local residents are requesting the Peshmergas to act quickly and decisively.
31st July: Over 150 Daash/rebel fighters flee from the north and north east of Baqouba, Diyala. The Daash fighters fled intense resistance by local tribes in al-Mansuriyya and Hamrin village.
31st July: There are no coincidences: Leonard Blavatnik, a Ukraine born, US Oligarch, has been identified by Kurdish press as the billionaire behind the company that is buying Kurdish Crude from Iraq.
31st July: Amir al- Kanani of the Ahtrar Bloc (Moqtada Sadr’s) has stated that most parliamentarians from within the Shiite National Alliance are so far agreeing that Maliki should not be given a third term. The Ahrar bloc is requesting the State of the Law Coalition to continue to be a part of the National Alliance.
01st Aug: Hezbollah Commander Ibrahim Mohammed al-Haj’s funeral is held in Mashghara, Eastern Lebanon. Hezbollah has stated that he died performing his religious duty in “Iraq.” His funeral was held on Wednesday, the 30th of August. The most significant news that is being reported is that he was killed, behind enemy lines, near Mosul, northern Iraq. He is being referred to as one of the men that had snuck over the fence into Israel in 2006 and kidnapped Israeli Soldiers.
In photos released by Hezbollah a large group of mourners is seen with his young son clinging to his father’s coffin.
1st Aug: The UN warns of oil trading with Daash either in Iraq or Syria, telling member states that such actions may lead to sanctions.
1st Aug: Anger and frustration with Daash in Mosul is growing. The residents of the city are angry at the destruction of shrines, tombs and historic and cultural monuments. However, they remain powerless to do anything.

Related:
28th July: Walid Jumblatt, MP from the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) in Lebanon meets with Hassan Nasrallah to discuss regional issues.
30th July: Islamic brigades in Aleppo detonate explosives below Syrian government positions and kill 13 fighters loyal to Bashar Al Assad.
31st July: It’s so much easier to take: Chinese hackers close to the government in Beijing are suspected of stealing classified military files from Israeli defense contractors. The hacks primarily targeted information concerning Missile shield Systems, ballistic missiles, and drone technology.
1st Aug: Walid Jumblatt, MP from the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) states that the Druze and Christian communities in the region face extinction. He also expressed his opinion that there seems to be a huge gap in thinking between the “modern” Future movement and Sunni “Islamists.”
1st Aug: Saad Hariri has praised the King of Saudi Arabia for his stand on the Palestinian Issue. It is rumored in Syria that Saad Hariri is in some ways “related” to King Abdullah.

A note of thanks to the blog's donors and a few comments about support

Dear friends,

I have to admit with a great deal of embarrassment that I simply have not found the time to thank those of you who have sent donations to support this blog in person.  I realize that this is rude, but my choice was stark: every minute spent on sending out personal thank you notes is one I did not spent working on this blog and maintaining contacts with the other Language Teams.  I think that most of you would probably prefer that I focus on the blog, in particular at this crucial moment in time.  To the others, my heartfelt and sincere apologies.

So, asking again for your understanding, here is the list of those whom I wish to thank now for their contributions:

Through PayPal: RA, AJ, WN, FA, PC, AZ, BG, EU, YE, RC, GW, RH, JL, MG, JS, J6, SE, DM, GB, HS, PP, CV, AJ, JC, FD, AK, LH, RL, DM, CG, JS, HM, WM, MM.

Through Amazon: MD

Through snailmail: MB (I could not cash your check, please only send cash)

To all of you a huge and heartfelt thank you!  You guys are literally helping my family pay the bills (as we live paycheck to paycheck) and without your help by family simply could not have made it this spring and summer.  Even the Amazon gift card we used to get household items.

Then, as always, this blog owes a big debt of gratitude to HJ without whose weekly donation I would literally not be able to make it.

Finally, I want to say something which I find extremely important: can anybody of you guess from which country this blog get the most donations and from which big country no donations were ever sent?

Most donations come from the USA, followed by Canada, the UK, Australia and New Zealand.  That's right!  The Echelon countries.  The Five Eyes if you prefer.  The countries which really "run the planet" or, should I say, "run the Empire".  Not only that, but I get a lot of mail from donors and just readers expressing their support which begin like this "I am an American and I love my country" or "I served 20 years in the US Navy".  In other words, this blog subsists in a large part thanks to Anglo help from people who love their countries and people, and who are not even offended by my use of the expression "AngloZionist" because they understand that the "Anglo" part is a historical reference to the British Empire's transformation into the Five Eyes and, most importantly, because while they love their country and people, they categorically oppose the Empire and its policies.

I mention that because I regularly get comments by one (or several) creeps who spew hatred at the British people and at all Anglo-Saxons and claim that somehow these people (as oppose to elite-backed regimes in power) are the cause of the evil we see today.  They regularly post crap like "Russia should nuke London".  Well, if the author(s) of these comments read these lines I want you to know that the people you hate so much are the very same ones who make this blog possible.  Think about it.

And since some will no doubt ask about this: no, I have not received any donations from Israel.  But I don't discount this possibility in the future.

The other thing I want to mention is that a lot of you have written to me (or posted comments) saying that the Russian government should hire or sponsor me.  I always laugh when I read this.  Let me tell you: I never got even one kopek in support from Russia.  Not from the government, not from regular people either.  I did get donations from Russians living outside Russia, but from Russia proper not a single penny.  If, by some kind of bizarre twist of fate, the Russian government or Gazprom wanted to sponsor my work, I am not sure I would accept that help anyway, but if I did, I would certainly  have to post a note about that on the blog.  I think that getting money behind the scenes from governments is plain unethical even if you maintain your editorial independence.  So, friends, if I get a call from Putin thanking me for the blog, I will let you know, but I am not holding my breath :-)

In the meantime, thanks to all of you who have send donations and thanks also to those of you who have sent kind emails of support.  If donations help making ends meet, your kind emails of support have helped me retain my sanity, especially in the most depressing and discouraging times.  When I read the news every morning I often get totally disgusted and despondent, but then I read your emails filled with kindness and humanity and I feel the courage come back to me and that helps me get back behind the keyboard and resume the struggle.

To all of you, a huge and heartfelt THANK YOU!

The Saker

Analysis of satellite imagery released on the Internet by the Security Service of Ukraine on July 30, 2014

The Russian Ministry of Defense has released the following document:

Analysis of satellite imagery released on the Internet by the Security Service of Ukraine on July 30, 2014

The Russian Defence Ministry has analyzed the satellite imagery released by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on July 30, 2014, which allegedly disproves the authenticity of the Russian satellite imagery showing the Buk-1 batteries in the Boeing 777 (MH17) crash site area on July 17 and confirms that Russian Armed Forces opened fire on Ukrainian territory.

First of all, one needs facts to level grave accusations or make conclusions. It is widely acknowledged that geo-reference and astronomical time are necessary for satellite images to count as factual evidence in order to pinpoint specific satellites in a constellation that was flying over the area at the time and take into consideration their technical characteristics and capacities. All satellites orbiting the Earth move in accordance with predetermined trajectories.

In connection to this, we can state that according to the Russian space surveillance system, Ukrainian satellites Sich-1 and Sich-2 were not flying over this territory from 10am to 1pm Moscow time (GMT+4; 9am-12pm GMT+3) on July 12, 16, 17 and 18, 2014.

At the time specified in the images, the American electro-optical reconnaissance satellite of the Key Hole series was flying over the crash site area, so the source of the images for Ukrainian Security Service is obvious.

As for the images, the analysis goes as follows.

The first two slides show almost identical images from the Ukrainian and Russian sides. The important detail is that the SBU’s image is dated several days later.

Slide 1

Slide 2

The images on Slides 3 and 4 require a more detailed review.

Slide 3

Here the specified time does not correlate with the image.

In the images released by SBU, the shadows point north-east. Thus, these images were not only made on a different day, but also in the afternoon, which means the specified time has been deliberately falsified.

That is an indisputable fact. The images released by the Russian Defense Ministry on July 21 are absolutely accurate in terms of the location and time.

Moreover, it is clearly visible that in the SBU’s image the circled tree belt has been deliberately distorted. The Russian satellite image does not have these distortions.

Additionally, according to all weather reports for Avdeyevka on July 17, the area had 70 to 80% cloud coverage and cloud base height of 2,500m. The information can be easily verified through a number of independent sources. Russian satellite image shows exactly that.

Please note that the SBU’s Slide 4 shows clear skies and sunny weather on the same day. No comments are necessary.

Slide 4

The resolution of the Russian satellite image on Slide 5 has been deliberately lowered, which resulted in the outlines the terrain (i.e. field) looking smeared.

Slide 5

The Russian Defense Ministry presented a high-quality satellite image of this area (as follows), which has no alleged inconsistencies pointed out by the SBU.

High-quality image of area as presented by the Russian Defence Ministry

The Ukrainian image on Slide 7 is identical to the Russian one, except it was made 5 days (!) later. It is unclear what the SBU was trying to prove with it.

Slide 7

Now let us look at the images presented by the SBU as evidence of Russia delivering arms and military equipment to Ukrainian territory, as well as sending mysterious sabotage groups and shelling populated areas.

In the 14 satellite images presented by the SBU one can make out some vehicles and their tracks with no latitude or longitude, or references to time and date.

Half of the images (Images 2 through 7) show some field roads that, according to the SBU, are located partly in Russia and partly in Ukraine.

Image 2

Image 3

Image 4

Image 5

Image 6

Image 7

However, none of the images show a road that crosses the border. The SBU’s unsubstantiated statements that the tracks in the fields were made by Russian military vehicles do not hold up to scrutiny.

Considering the quality of the images, it remains unclear how the vehicles were identified as tanks, armored vehicles or trucks, let alone as property of the Russian Federation and not of the Ukrainian military or border patrol.

The same goes for the two images (images 4 and 14) which allegedly show evidence of fieldworks.

Image 4

Image 14

It is a similar case with Images 11-13, which the SBU claims to show Russian military equipment on Ukrainian territory.

Image 11

Image 12

Image 13

Again, it remains unclear exactly why the head of the SBU believes this equipment belongs to the Russian army. The area around Marinovka, Kozhevnya and Grigoryevka has long been controlled by the Ukrainian military.

As for the alleged shelling with Grad rocket launchers from the Ukrainian (!) village of Grigoryevka controlled by the Ukrainian military (Images 8-10), this is clearly an exercise in conspiracy theories and an attempt to lay the blame on someone else’s shoulders, which is clearly reminiscent of Kiev’s earlier allegations of Russia’s involvement in the Maidan and the tragedy in Odessa.

Image 8

Image 9

Image 10

Instead of presenting hastily doctored evidence to the international community, the SBU could do with better control over all the mercenary units in the areas around Donetsk and Lugansk organized by Kolomoisky, Lyashko, Yarosh and others, who shell Ukrainian territory without any control from those in charge of the anti-terrorist operation.

***

In conclusion, based on the data provided by the Russian space surveillance, one may deduce that Ukraine does not own the disclosed information.

However, its quality, as well as the SBU’s arguments allegedly proving Russia’s involvement, are absolutely implausible.

Apparently, the reason why the true owners of these images have not put their names to these publications is to make sure the myth of their mighty space intelligence keeps going.