Thursday, July 3, 2014

Wednesday, July 2, 2014

June 2nd IRAQ SITREP by Mindfriedo

Iraq SITREP July 2nd MINI CIVIL WARS

How strange! How strange! By Allah my heart sinks to see the unity of these people on their wrong…and your scattering away from your right. Woe and grief befall you. You have become the target at which arrows are shot”
---Ali ibn Abi Talib (as) to the people of Iraq

Today’s SITREP has been divided for clarity; a lot can happen in 24 hours

Government Areas
1st July: The followers of the anti Iranian Shia cleric Mahmud al-Hasani al-Sarkhi march on the Imam Hussain (as) shrine in Karbala and clash with security personnel blocking them. The clashes are reported to be fierce with 25 people killed. The exact cause of the confrontation is unclear. Al-Sarkhi is opposed to the influence of “Iranian Marjas” such as Sistani. It is interesting to note that Sistani is Iranian born but has lived in Najaf most of his life.
2nd Junly: Karbala is under curfew and security forces have laid siege to the office of Al-Sharkhi where he has taken shelter along with a number of his followers. His followers have also blockaded roads in Nasiriyah and Basra (both southern Shi’ite cities) and clashes have been reported between the army and his supporters in other cities of the south of Iraq.
2nd July: A second batch of five Sukhoi fighters has arrived in Iraq. The Iraqi Air Force now has 10 SU25s supplied by Russia. Seven helicopter gunships have also been delivered by Russia, three MI-28M Havocs and four Mi-35s. A further 24 MI-35Ms and MI-28NEs are to be delivered till 2016 under a 4.2 billion USD contract signed in 2012. The helicopters are believed to have night warfare capabilities.
2nd July: The Iraqi Government has released footage of army operations in Tikrit to corroborate its claims of having entered the city. Army personnel are seen patrolling the streets and clearing the University Campus.
2nd July: The Iraqi army’s advance into Tikrit has been slowed down by booby traps, IEDs, and traps installed by militants. The army’s engineering wing his assisting the regular forces identify and contain them. Traps were found in government buildings and roads. The withdrawal of rebel forces from parts of Tikrit is being seen as a trap to cause non combat casualties amongst the army. Clashes in some areas have been fierce with the army calling in air strikes to dislodge entrenched rebels.
2nd July: The Iraqi army claims to have defused over 40 IEDs and to have painstakingly removed Daash flags from buildings and roadsides in Tikrit.
2nd July: The Iraqi ambassador to the US, Luqman Al-Faili, has asked the United States for much needed Military aid and airstrikes. In his address to the Carnegie Institute he stated “Baghdad would be unable to wait for more to receive additional assistance from the United States.” He stressed that Iraq would turn to other governments and Iran for military aid. He stated that both Iran and Turkey could be asked to aid with airstrikes.
2nd July: Dr Haider Al-Abadi, senior politician and spokesperson for Maliki, to Huffington Post UK “We have to be careful not to become involved in a sectarian war,” he said, adding: “Shias are not against Sunnis and Sunnis are not against Shias.” And that “Isis has got its own agenda regarding what it’s doing in Iraq. Whatever we do, even if we bring in a Sunni prime minister, they’ll be against him.. They fought against (former Iraqi prime minister Ayad) Allawi because he was secular, even though he wasn’t a Shia.” He also pointed out threat of returning Daash fighters to the UK.
2nd July: Analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), UK, claim that the jets delivered to Iraq on the 1st of July originated in Iran and not Russia.
2nd July: Maliki has offered an amnesty to rebels “I announce the provision of an amnesty for all tribes and all people who were involved in actions against the state but who now ‘return to their senses,’ excluding those involved in killings.”
2nd July, Government claims for the day:
Iraqi government releases a video showing “Russian” supplied Su-25s attacking Daash/rebel positions
Iraqi government releases further videos of its air force bombing Daash/rebel fighters in Anbar and Baylon
The Iraqi army is in control of the University of Tikrit and is using it as a base of operations to “liberate” Tikrit
The air force is reporting killing 60 Daash fighters in the Jurf al-Sakhar district of northern Babel.

Sunni/contested Areas:
2nd July: Athel al-Nujaifi , the Governor of Nineveh has called for the creation of a “Sunni Territory” within Iraq. He states that the Sunnis no longer trust the army or the government in Baghdad. He has pointed out that the region is rich in natural oil wealth such as the 15 unexploited newly discovered oil fields in Anbar province. He has also citied ample water resources and agriculture as arguments for secession or autonomy.
2nd July: Daash had in a meeting held on Tuesday in Mosul asked its allied tribes and Ba’athist fighters to lay down their arms and swear allegiance to their caliph. This call has been made throughout the Sunni areas it controls in Iraq and Syria. Strangely Daash’s insistence on allegiance to stay within the DI (Daulat Islamia) of Daash is very similar to what is required of the citizens of the United States.
A funny thing that needs to be mentioned is that Al Baghdadi, the caliph of the DI of Daash’s real name is Ibrahim ibn Awwad ibn Ibrahim Ali ibn Muhammad al-Badri al-Hashimi al-Husayni al-Qurashi. His name implies that he is from the lineage of the Prophet and from the same tribe. The devil is in the detail. This information needs to be dusted for fingerprints.
2nd July: A rocket attack in the Shirqat district, north of Tikrit, has left 16 people dead and injured 5. It is not clear who was responsible for the rocket attack that damaged seven houses. The district is located close to Baiji and has seen clashes between the Iraqi army and Daash/Rebel fighters.
2nd July: Senior Jordanian Al Qaida figures/clerics Abu Mohammed Al Maqdissi and Mohammad Shalabi have condemned the DI of Daash.
2nd July: Clashes break out between Daash fighters and Naqshabandi fighters in Himreen in Nineveh province leaving four dead.

Kurdish areas
2nd July: Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister speaking in Russia “Although Iraq has a strong army, Iran is ready to send military consultants to the neighboring country to help with battles against the al-Qaeda splinter Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).” Further “All Iraqi factions should respect the country’s constitution.”
2nd July: Maliki refers to the Kurdish bid for an independence referendum as unconstitutional.

Related:
2nd July: Daash fighters in Syria have captured the Syrian/DI of Daash town of Boukamal from the rival Al-Qaida linked “Obama moderate” rebel Al Nusra front. Al-Nusra fighters had earlier defected to the ranks of Daash. Daash is now advancing to the Al Nusra stronghold of Shuheil that is also the birth place of Al Nusra’s leader Abu Muhammed Al Golani. Heavy fighting is expected and residents of Shuheli are fleeing in mass.
2nd June: More Bandars for Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has appointed Prince Khaled Bin Bandar as its intelligence chief. The earlier Bandar, Prince Bandar Bin Sultan, was sacked three months ago. The King has put the armed forces on a high state of alert fearing violence from Islamic militants.
2nd July: Rebels in Syria released this statement “We, the leaders of the brigades and battalions...give the National Coalition, the [opposition] interim government, the [rebel] Supreme Military Council and all the leading bodies of the Syrian revolution a week to send reinforcements and complete aid. Should our call not be heard, we will lay down our weapons and pull out our fighters,"
2nd June: Number of Turkish tourists visiting Israel in 2013, not on flotillas of course, 24,385.
2nd June: Jordanian forces on the Iraq Jordan border have been on a heightened state of alert since June 16th.

Short Analysis, America’s plan B:
America’s plan B, or was it plan A all along, is now becoming clear: The division of Iraq into three autonomous regions. This is primarily to weaken the Shia block. Following the rebel takeover of Sunni Cities, this has been brought about by:
Undermining the security forces of the Iraqi government, by questioning their credibility and effectiveness and by denying military assistance.
Questioning the validity of Maliki’s reelection and repeatedly calling for a unity government. By making Aid conditional on Maliki resigning, they made it harder for him to do so.
Using Iraqi Kurdistan as an example to follow, asking the Iraqi government to be inclusive while exemplifying the autonomy of Iraqi Kurdistan
Support and encouragement of Sunni politicians looking to break away. Constantly referring to them as marginalized and excluded.
In all conflicts, a political solution follows a military one. The Americans are insisting that a political solution precede the retaking of Iraqi cities by Baghdad. They are asking the Iraqi government to negotiate from a position of weakness and with those advocating sedition. They never spoke to Saddam in the same way even after defeating him. This is not just double standard; they seem to want to create chaos even where there is a possibility for peace.
Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces has stated that some of the work carried out by the US military personnel will be to assess the Iraqi army, its capabilities and representation: What are they doing?, what is there Composition? Are they still force that represents all Iraqis?” then “When we get this assessment, We will take decisions on some other types of support that we can provide…” and finally “the ability to reach a political reconciliation between the groups, and provide a comprehensive way to the people of Iraq, will lead to the formation of an important factor in DETERMINING what we will do in the FUTURE.”

Direct Information from Igor Strelkov & the Militia, July 1, 2014


00:21 Information from the Militia
Ukies are conducting an intensive shelling of Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, the areas of Yampol and Krivaya Luka. As well, intensive battles are taking place in the area of Vishnevo-Dyakovo (DPR). In Metallist (suburb of Lugansk), Ukies got it good and are retreating to their positions.23:50 (MSK) – Powerful heavy artillery explosions in Slavyansk, in Artyom and Severeniy districts.
00:00 (MSK) – Methodical destruction of Kramatorsk with heavy artillery is continuing. An artillery battery from the northern side of Krasniy Liman has joined in.
00:50 (MSK) – Signal flares over Krasniy Liman (the northern district); they are lighting up areas next to the artillery battery. Shelling against Kramatorsk is continuing. Fire has been opened at Slavyansk from the turn onto Krasniy Liman. Shelling is coming also from the garbage dump.
00:56 Commentary from the Militia
Q: Massive explosions and shooting in Kramatorsk. City centre is in smoke. In many areas of the city the civil defence siren is active.
Badass Soldier: We gave them an answer. Judging by the panicked radio transmissions, after our allah-verdi the TV tower fell on the Ukie positions.
01:47 Commentary from the Militia
Q: Do I understand it correctly that the TV tower succumbed to a purely natural disaster – hurricane winds and hail?
Badass Soldier: Unfortunately, we have neither the first, nor the second here – looks like our shells snapped the TV tower’s support cables. I noticed something – as soon as a guest comes to visit us, something strange always happens. You guys should stop sending us troopers – take pity on the Ukies! Just look – Topaz happened to come by for a tour, and the TV tower fell all of a sudden. Zmey is expected in a couple of days – I am scared to imagine what will happen …
09:44 Briefing from the Militia
Well, it looks like the Ukie advance has begun.A few hours ago, Ukie ground attack jets conducted a rocket-bomb strike on the Belenkoye village near Kramatorsk.
In LPR, there are battle in the area of Zheltoye settlement, in the Metallist settlement (a suburb of Lugansk) and in the Stanitsa Luganskaya.
There is also fighting in the area of Krasniy Partisan (near the Russian Gukovo).
Artillery shelling of Snezhnoye and Saur-Mogila has commenced. The same goes of Rubezhnoye.
11:48 Briefing from Igor Strelkov
Last night Slavyansk (Artyom settlement, Tselinniy, Severniy), Nikolayevka and Kramatorsk were subject to intensive shelling. A lot of destruction and wounded among the civilian population. Gas pipelines were smashed. There are no casulaties among the Militia.In the morning, Kramatorsk was bombed by the enemy aviation. I have no information about the results [of the bombing] – we have no communications with Kramatorsk [at this time].
Half an hour ago, Nikolayevka was shelled with Grad MLRS. We are determining casualty information.
There is fighting near Donetsk – there Ukies commenced an advance, which has been in the works for some time. We also have no communications with them.
We have information that Ukies started a tank advance against Seversk.
Tanks, artillery and infantry are being concentrating in our area. We will also be preparing for an assault.
11:57 Briefing from Igor Strelkov
Ukies shelled Piskunovka with artillery. It is a small village where we never had a garrison (it’s in neutral territory). There are multiple fires now. What’s most interesting is that a few days ago the residents [of the village] came out onto the streets and refused to let our militiamen pass, saying “get way from here – we don’t want them to shoot us.” So, our guys did not set up any positions there. Didn’t help.
14:18 Briefing from Igor Strelkov
Just now, a vehicle with humanitarian aid was fired upon. It barely managed to escape on flats. They decided to strangle us with the “bony hand of hunger” … There is at least 40,000 civilians left here – all the provisions are coming by way of humanitarian aid. And I am not even talking about the wounded.Ukies have concentrated their forces on a single direction. As if getting read for a parade. Look like they will be going for an assault … And there cannons upon cannons on top of cannons … are around are cannons and MLRS. They will start soon.
14:54 Commentary from Igor Strelkov
Q: Gunfire can be heard the centre of Donetsk.An intensive firefight started in the centre of Donetsk near the regional police HQ, which is controlled by the Militia. At least one person has been wounded; cars parked nearby have been damaged. According to RIA Novosti, it is unknown at this time who is involved in the skirmish.
Igor Strelkov: [We are] conducting a takeover of the [building]. The rear must be cleared [and secured] before an assault [on the city] takes place.In Kramatorsk, 2 more passengers of the destroyed motor-coach have died – in total, there are 6 dead and 4 wounded from this attack.The enemy is concentrating its forces against us and against Kramatorsk.
15:10 Commentary from Igor Strelkov
Q: On Russia 24 they just said that a unit of the field commander Bezler has taken over the police HQ in Donetsk and is refusing to obey the DPR Army – is battling against them. How can this be happening?
Igor Strelkov: Oh, in Donetsk it’s always – “either diarrhea or scrofula.” To be frank, I am really tired of hearing news from there – the news are consistently negative and always about some quarrel, squabble or the counting of chickens before they are hatched [Note: original – the division of an an unkilled bear’s skin]. To keep having internal strife in the face of an advancing enemy – it’s “the thing to do,” of course. As for me, I am long past caring who is in charge in Donetsk – as long as one person takes control. Be it Bes [Note: Bezler], Khodokovskiy, someone else. The only one I am completely oppsed to is Medvedchuk …
15:47 Commentary from Igor Strelkov
Q: Whispering, hoping: what about yourself?
Igor Strelkov: Firmly, no.To put things in order in Donetsk, you’d need a battalion (along with me). I can’t remove a force like that from the frontlines. Besides, “restoring the order” will also turn into shooting and squabbling. And the consequence for DPR will be most negative, equally on the military and on the geopolitical front.
15:57 Commentrary from Igor Strelkov
Q: [Ukie] news – yesterday, the Ukrainian artillery destroyed a Militia training camp near Slavyansk. Over 250 people died. True or not?
Igor Strelkov: Of course it’s not true! They did not just destroy one camp, they crushed a group of camps. Not just 250, but 2,500 militiamen are dead! There are three times as many wounded … The Militia is feeing, leaving behind dozens of tanks and aircraft, while the terrorist mercenaries are joining the ranks of the Ukrainian military en masse.
18:00 Briefing from Igor Strelkov
Igor Strelkov: In the course of the night from June 30 – July 1, the enemy conducted a series of artillery strikes against Slavyansk, Semyonovka, Nikolayevka, and Kramatorsk, using howitzer, mortars and Grad MLRS. In all the settlements there is significant destruction and wounded.In the morning, in the course of an artillery strike on Kramatorsk, a motor coach was hit. Four civilians died on the spot; two more died of their wounds at the hospital. Four more were wounded. The city was also attacked [from the air] by a Su-25 [ground attack jet].
In the course of the day on July 1, the enemy continued shelling all of the above-mentioned settlements; two militiamen were wounded. Our return strike at an enemy column that advanced into the area of Kombikormoviy destroyed and/or damaged 3 trucks with ammunition and 2 refuelling vehicles.
In the first half of the day, the enemy attempted to attack the positions of the Militia staffed by personnel from Mozgovoi’s Lisichansk Battalion in the area of the city of Seversk. The attack was repelled with significant losses [to the enemy]; two APCs were hit and burned down. The enemy returned the favour by continuing to shell Seversk with heavy artillery.
19:33 Commentary from Igor Strelkov
Q: Ukies are silent about the losses today. Looks like they are not insignificant. They may be waiting to take control of a small village, to publically claim a victory and add their losses at the end, [in small print].
Igor Strelkov: On the northern front we had two successful attacks:Mozgovoi’s fighters repelled a Ukie attack on Seversk, routing and dispersing an armoured scouting party. Two APCs were burned down and were left on the battlefield; three others fled in different direction. The enemy also suffered substantial losses in manpower.Our Nonas shelled a column of the enemy near the entrance to the Kombikormoviy checkpoint. With a high degree of certainty, we can claim the destruction of 3 trucks with artillery ammunitions and 2 refuelling vehicles. In return, the enemy conducted massive shelling of Slavyansk, Semyonovka and Cherevkovka, causing repeated destruction in the industrial and the residential sectors. There are no losses among militiamen.
19:39 Commentary from Igor Strelkov
Q: (thoughtfully) Wasn’t there just one [Nona], if I recall correctly …
Igor Strelkov: We restored the one we hit and captured near Yampol.
20:02 Information from the Militia
According to information from sources on the border between LPR and the Russian Federation, fierce battles continue near Izvarino. Militiamen have several “200s” (about 10 men) and “300s.” The enemy lost 6 T-64 tanks and a number of APCs that were destroyed by the Militia. The number of dead among the Junta troops is unknown. At this time, the Militia is continuing to hold positions near the [border] crossing, the battles continue.Saur-Mogila is being subjected to intense artillery shelling and airstrikes. During one of the attempts, a Junta aircraft missed and the rockets went past Saur Mogila, hitting the settlement of Dmitrovka. There are casualties among the civilian population.
19:47 Commentary from Igor Strelkov
Q: Ukies (NazGuard) are reporting that they have taken Zakotnoye under control. Igor Ivanovich, is this serious?
Igor Strelkov: But [the settlement] was not controlled by anyone. Our patrols would show up there from time to time.
19:28 Infromation from LPR
Bolotov stated at a press-conference in Lugansk that the Militia have taken full control of the Lugansk airport.
20:33 Information from the Ukrainian Armed Forces
We are dealing with the TV Tower at this moment. There was special equipment [on the TV Tower] that enabled us to correct artillery shelling and perform scouting and monitoring of the surroundings over a radius of several dozen kilometres. The toppling of the TV Tower has foiled our plans. The army is once again blind.
22:32 Briefing from the Militia
Badass Soldier: As of this time, the self-defence unit at Izvarino, under Strelkov’s jurisdiction, has destroyed an additional 2 BMP APCs, 2 Ural trucks, 1 BTR APC, and 2 mortars.
22:36 Eyewitness Reports from Location
Slavyansk was hit with high-calibre shells. In one of the buidings in the Artyom district the entranceway was smashed to bits. There are dead and wounded.Sharpnel charges came from Kombikormoviy. There is destruction at 4 Bulvarnaya street and 7 & 9 Volnaya street. A women died; there are also 3 wounded. Poroshenko is a “hero.”
According to an eyewitness:
At 7 Volnaya street, 3rd entranceway, 2nd floor – one dead, two wounded. At 4 Bulvarnaya street, 3rd entranceway, from 1st to 5th floor there is enormous destructions (looks like that hit a gas pipe) – one wounded (a grandma was freed from under the rubble. At 9 Volnaya street, window panes have been blown out. As well:
– School No. 10 was hit;
– boiler-room buiding in Artyom district, behind “Salyut” store, was hit;
– the roof of the “Salyut” store was hit;
There is information that there was 10 Bulvarnaya street was also hit.
According to DTEK Donetskoblenergo, Slavyansk has been entirely deelectrified as a result of shelling by the Ukrainian army.
18:50-23:30 Briefing from the Militia
18:50 (MSK) – Shelling is continuing from the direction of the northern part of Krasniy Liman. According to confirmed information, a frog [Note: MI-8] and a Su-25 were shot down over the territory of Lugansk. Accordingly, 4 air targets were destroyed today.19:25 (MSK) – In Lugansk, the civil defence siren has come on. A Su ground attack jet is coming in for an attack. Another Su conducted airstrikes with NARs [Note: unguided air-to-ground rockets] against Stanitsa Luganskaya. Fire was opened in return; however, the aircraft escaped unharmed.
19:35 (MSK) – A unit of Su ground attack jets flew over the area of military engagement in Konstantinovka, coming from the direction of Artyomovsk.
20:05 (MSK) – A battery of heavy artillery is conducting strikes from the turn onto Svyatogorsk. Just now we received information that yet another aircraft was shot down over Raigorodok.
20:25 (MSK) – In the area of Zakotnoye there is a battle; KPVT is heard working; there are explosions. Overall, there are multiple maneuver-centric battles currently ongoing in LPR and DPR; the main events are taking place on the border with the Russian Federation, near Lugansk, at Saur Mogila, and in the area of Krasniy Liman-Yampol-Zakotnoye-Slavyansk. Shelling of Hero-Cities is being conducted using all kinds of weapons that Ukies have concentred in the military theatre; aviation is being widely used. In addition, Praviy Sector goons arrived today in Krasniy Liman on two buses (up to a company in total).
22:10 (MSK) – Artillery strikes are being conducted against Metallist.
23:00 (MSK) – A maneuver-centric engagement is taking place near Shurovo.
23:30 (MSK) – An explosion and automatic weapons’ fire on the south side of Krasniy Liman.
22:55 Information from a Reliable Contact
Indeed, there were Bezler’s men. The key goal of todays skirmish was Pozhidayev. He has been detained. There are no longer any police in Donetsk that are subordinated to Kiev. There will no longer be any shooting at police.Some militiamen decided that they are more militiamen than others. They took an initiative that was not requested. As of this time, all the differences have been settled in negotiations, there are no more problems.
23:39 Preliminary Data Regarding Ukrainian LossesManpower Losses: 14 in total – 8 in Donetsk and 6 in LPRDestroyed Military Equipment:

– 2 tanks at Karlovka
– 6 T-64 tanks near the LPR/Russia border
– 1 BTR-80 APC in Lugansk
– 8 BMP/BTR APCs near the LPR/Russia border
– 2 BTR APCs near Seversk
– 2 BMP APCs near Izvarino
– 1 Su-25 shot down over Snezhnoye
– 1 Su-24 and 1 Su-25 shot down over Lugansk
– 3 trucks with artillery ammunition destroyed in Slavyansk
– 2 refuelling trucks destroyed in Slavyansk
– 2 Ural trucks near Izvarino
– 2 mortars near Izvarino

Note: some source suggest, with a high degree of certainty that Ukraine lost 5 Su aircraft, 1 MI-8 helicopter, and that a further 2 Su jets were substantially damaged.
23:51 Commentary from Igor Strelkov
Q: They are really starting to hit Saur-Mogila – the guys are real heroes to live through a night like that and then until 14:00 – I counted at least 20 Grad volleys. Looks like they might have downed a Su jet as well. Who is their commander, he really deserves respect?
Igor Strelkov: Their commander is “Prapor” – my close friend and comrade-in-arms from Transnistria.
00:07 Commentary from Igor StrelkovQ: So, does it mean that they downed a third Su today? Or are we talking about the one over Stanitsa Luganskaya? Plus, we are patiently awaiting authoritative commentary on the situation between Bezler and Borodai.
Igor Strelkov: I am not certain either with respect to the 1st, or the 2nd, or the 3rd Su, as I [personally] did not report anything of the sort today (for clarity, here I will answer only with respect to the information I state personally, and not the information provided elsewhere by someone claiming to speak from my name). They were downed or damaged not in my area. Accordingly, I have no right to comment on this issue. The Ukrainian armed forces have confirmed that one of their aircraft was downed – that means that at leas one of them was indeed damaged.As for the situation with Bezler, Borodai, etc., I will not comment on it in any way. One thing I know for sure is that they will be doing backflips at the ATO HQ reading statements like those above. I only hope that this squabble will not reflect on what we do in our area.

A unofficial Russian no-fly zone over Novorussia?

My friend "J" just sent me this most interesting video where a Novorussian solider describes how some unidentified aircraft apparently engage Ukie fighters and bombers and, in one instance, box them in and force them to land.  This is the first and only time I have ever heard of such a thing taking place, and I obviously cannot vouch for the accuracy of this soldier's interpretation for what he saw.  Does that appear plausible?  Well, think about it this way:

1) The Ukies have clearly lost control over the Novorussian airspace.  Not only they not have the means to control it by force, they probably are blind to what is taking place there.
2) While US SIGINT might be able to detect Russian aircraft in Novorussian airspace, they would have a hard time backing up that claim without compromising their sacrosanct means and methods.  Besides, considering the short distances involved the Russian aircraft could fly what is called a "low-low-low mission profile" and remain pretty much undetectable.
3)  If a Russian Air Force aircraft shot down a Ukie, everybody could credit the air defenses anyway and challenge anybody to prove otherwise.

So I would rate this source (the solider) as an 'unknown' but this story as 'credible but uncorroborated'.

Still, that would explain the heavy Ukie aircraft losses, would it not?

Cheers,

The Saker

PS: notice, by the way, how this solider repeatedly makes references to WWII and to the Nazis!  So - please - don't come and tell me that I am the one constantly using references to topics which every Russian knows are the crucial context in which today's events should be understood.


Ukraine SITREP July 2nd, 12:33 UTC/Zulu: A first evaluation of the latest Ukie offensive on Novorussia.

Yesterday I wrote "hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle".  Today, and while it is way too early to make any kind of definitive judgments, I feel that I can say with some confidence that the worst has not happened and that, in fact, there are signs that the Ukrainian offensive has, so far, yielded no useful results.

I have not heard from Juan or Gleb, but I have been carefully parsing the news coming out of Novorussia in the Russian media and, more importantly, in the Russian social media.  They all concur on the following:
  • The Ukrainian attacks have used massive but non-discriminate firepower.  Either this is a deliberate junta policy to terrorize the civilian population and thereby culturally cleanse the Donbass, or the Ukie forces are extremely poorly trained.  Whatever may be the case, there are plenty of civilians casualties, but the effect of this firepower on the resistance forces has not been as bad as one could have feared.
  • Both sides have had comparatively losses, though the attackers suffered much more due to several successful ambushes by the resistance which drew the attacking forces into "fire sacks" and, basically, wiped them out.
  • The Ukies seems to have tested the resistance by doing what is called in Russian "reconnaissance by fire" where you engage a force primarily to gage its response and find its weaker spots.  Apparently no such spots were found (yet).
  • The airspace over Novorussia seems to be very well defended and only in one day the Ukies lost at least one SU-25 close air support and one SU-24 bomber aircraft.  Other sources speak of several more aircraft hit, including one Mi-24 attack helicopter shot down and one twin engine aircraft hit, but which managed to fly away.
  • The main Ukrainian effort seems to be concentrated in re-taking control of the border between Novorussia and Russia, but their only success so far has been the re-taking of an abandoned border post which the resistance did not even bother defending.
  • No other significant gain or change in positions has been reported.
Still, the humanitarian situation is extremely bad, especially in Slaviansk which has been viciously shelled and bombed and which has lost all electrical power as a result of these strikes.

There are persistent rumors that the junta is about to begin using the OTR-21 Tochka operational tactical rocket against the resistance.  Maybe.  They sure have them, but the problem will be targeting.  The Ukies have no satellites and their aircraft-base reconnaissance capabilities appear to be minimal.  While it is possible that Uncle Sam will provide them with targeting data, the resistance forces just do not provide the kind of high-value targets which would justify the use of such advanced missiles.  My prediction is that if the Ukies engage their OTR-21s it will be for a pure terror attack aimed at flattening some well-known and therefore mostly empty building.

I have also noticed somewhat of a change in tone in the western corporate media. If the EU zombies are, again, threatening Russia with more (probably totally symbolic) sanctions, the western media seems to become aware of the plight of the civilian population of the Donbass. 

In conclusion I will repeat that while the initial reports seem to indicate that the Ukie offensive is going absolutely nowhere, it is way too early to rejoice, especially since we have now way of assessing how close either side is to its breaking point.

The Saker

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

You guys are wonderful - thanks so much!!

Today I went to my PO BOX and found not one, but 6 letters, and even a (much needed) bottle of vitamins.  Each letter had very kind and encouraging words and, amazingly, 4 of them had no return address or even a sender's name.  I have to admit that for a bitter and often disillusioned person like me, it is deeply moving and, frankly, totally amazing to feel so much kindness and support from people whom I have never met, some of which even want to remain totally anonymous.  The outpouring of support I have received in the past few months is very, very humbling and immensely encouraging at the same time.  It literally keeps me going on the tough and discouraging days!

How do I thank an anonymous person?  How do I even let her/him know that I got her/his letter?

click for higher resolution
I decided to simply post a photo of what I got today so each person will be able to recognize her/his letter.

Also, since I am thanking people here, and since I am, as usual, totally swamped with work, I decided to also use this opportunity to thank those who have sent recent contributions to this blog via PayPal.  They are:

RH, AH, SE, GT, GL, BG, AS, AK, EFL, KH, MD, MB, JM, TL, AW, JL, JP, BZ, SC, CV, IG, DN, MD and HS.  To all of you, a huge "thank you!!" for your support and my most sincere apologies for not thanking you in a personal email (something I try really hard to do, but often simply cannot - since I get close to 100 emails per day).

Finally, I have to specially thank one person whose help for this blog has been literally crucial: "H".  Even though "H" told me not to thank him/her each time I get a donation, I feel that I have to mention that without this weekly support it would have been very hard for me to commit as much time as I do to this blog.

To all of you, thank you - you are wonderful!

Also, tomorrow I hope to post a very important update about the future of this blog, and I can already tell you that it is all very good news.

Kind regards and thanks to all,

The Saker

Novorussia - Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle

I love the American expression "Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, and settle for anything in the middle" and since no halfway clear picture is coming out of the combat operations taking place in Novorussia, I think that this is the approach we should use.

Hope for the best is easy: the Novorussian resistance beats back the Nazi forces.

But what is the worst which can happen?

The worst which can happen is that a lot of Novorussian defenders get killed, that the towns of Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Krasnyi Liman and others will get basically flattened and most of their inhabitants killed, that the road between Donetsk and Lugansk gets cut-off by the Ukies and that Ukie forces enter deep inside these two cities.

I have to be honest here, there is a pretty good chance that all of the above will happen in the next 24 hours.

If that happens, I would like to remind you all that entering into a city is one thing, taking control of it is quite another.  Think Beirut, think Grozny, think Baghdad, think Fallujah, think Gaza, think Bint Jbeil.  Even if Poroshenko announces that Donetsk and Lugansk have "fallen", this will be only a empty statement on par with Dubya's "mission accomplished".  What will *really* happen is that the type of warfare taking place will change.  Not only will it change, but the new (urban) type of warfare will almost completely negate the current huge advantage in aviation, artillery and armor of the Ukie side.  So if these cities "fall" - please do not despair.

I hope that Novorussians will be able to resist the Ukie attack, but I also know that by all accounts the kind of firepower the junta is using now is truly huge - we are dealing with a merciless and massive attack with everything the junta could muster and we have to accept that the Novorussian Defense Forces might have to retreat deeper into the cities or even go underground.  While heroic for sure, it is not smart to stay in the open when your enemy is using Smerch and Uragan MRLS against you or even the building you are in.  During the first Chechen war the Chechen retreated deeply inside Grozny and did not even bother defending the outskirts, in part because the city center buildings were far stronger than the flimsy houses in the suburbs.  I never studied the layout of the cities of Lugansk and Donetsk, but if they are typical of the way the Soviets liked to build, then retreating into the city center and giving up the suburbs would probably make sense.

The first defensive option is to let the Ukies enter the suburbs and then cut them off, envelop (surround) them, and then attack them.  If that works, great!  But if the Ukies clear the way with massive sustained strikes and flatten their way in, then it will become necessarily to switch to "plan B" and retreat deeper into the cities.  If the Ukie advance is multi-pronged and too fast, or if the city center defenses were not adequately prepared (for whatever reason), then plan "C" is to go more or less underground and switch to an active mobile defense centered on short but intense ambushes followed by immediate retreats.

I am not saying that this will happen, I have not heard from Juan or Gleb yet, but I think that I ought to prepare you for the worst, should it happen.

The Saker

July 1st Novorossia News Bulletin by the ANNA news agency

1st JULY IRAQ SITREP by Mindfriedo

1st July: Iraqi MPs are sworn in but fail to reach consensus or after interval quorum needed. The 225 MPs present were supposed to start by selecting a speaker for the house; the speaker has to be a Sunni as per the constitution. The house has been adjourned to Tuesday next week. Kurdish MPs and those of the Union of National Forces withdrew their members resulting in the minimum quorum of 150 not being met. The Kurdish MPs were upset when they were accused of giving shelter to rebel groups in Kurdistan. The Motahedoun coalition, which is led by the Sunni ex speaker Osama al-Nujaifi, the Kurds, and the Shia National Coalition opposed a third term for Maliki and withdrew.
1st July: At least 14 people are injured and one dead in mortar attacks on the Askari shrine in Samarra. The shrine was unharmed. The Iraqi air force carried out retaliatory air strikes on the militants targeting the shrine. The man killed was a construction worker repairing the shrine. Shells had landed near their caravans parked 150 meters from the shrine.
1st July: Turkey has seen a sharp decline of its exports to Iraq. The trade between the two countries was 12 billion USD annually but has decreased by 21%.
1st July: The Iraqi interior ministry has given orders to provide for the volunteers aiding the security forces.
1st July: The President of Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, has declared his intention to hold an independence referendum soon. Dates are yet to be decided.
1st July: Turkey has criticized any move to create an independent Kurdish state. It has referred to Iraq as “an existing state with an existing constitution.” However, Erdogan has expressed a desire to continue importing crude oil from Iraqi Kurdistan.
1st July: Hossein Amir Abdul Allahaan, the Deputy Foreign Minister of Iran has during his visit to Moscow referred to Daash in Iraq as the “US attempt to make Iraq a second Ukraine.” He has declared Iran’s willingness to supply military equipment to Baghdad.
1st July: The United States is sending an additional 200 men to Iraq along with additional drones and helicopters to protect its interests.
1st July: Mosul is suffering from water shortages (the main water supply station has been bombed), food shortages, and power shortages.
1st July: The governor of Ninaveh, Athel Al Nujaifi has asked Maliki and his ministers to realize the real cause of the fall of Mosul. He has blamed the collapse on the corruption of officers from the intelligence, interior and defense ministries. He has also named specific units such as the second brigade of extortion and oil smuggling. The oil was being smuggled to Daash. He has also pointed out that repeated letters sent to the respective ministries had resulted in no concrete result as the corrupt officers held sway.
1st July: The UN has listed 2417 Iraqis killed in June 2014.
1st July: Images have appeared showing Daash fighters wrapped in and using “YURT KUR” Turkey University Students’ blankets.
1st July: Tweets reportedly sent by Daash (not sure if this is genuine, propaganda, or counter propaganda) claim to want to attack the Kaba and destroy it. The tweets claim that Muslims are praying to a black stone.
1st July: Daash fighters have paraded a Scud Missile on its carrier in their Capital Raqqa, Syria or DI of Daash. The missile is believed to be inoperable.
1st July: Iraq governments tally for the day:
Daash commander for Kirkuk region is killed by Iraqi Security Services in Kirkuk province. His name was Abu Bakr al-Shishani.
50 Daash fighters killed in the west of Mosul. Abu Ayman, a foreign fighter from Afghanistan, was amongst the dead.
Mansouriya district north of Baqouba, Diyal Province saw fresh clashes between rebel fighters and security personnel. One soldier and three Daash fighters are reported killed.
Two IEDs had exploded in Baghdad on Monday not one as reported earlier. They were in western and southern Baghdad killing nine civilians.
A Kurdish civilian was killed by terrorists in al-Aitha village north east of Baqouba.

Further reading:
An excellent article on RT on shared heritage of Iraq, not just of its sects but Humanity
http://rt.com/op-edge/169600-preserving-world-heritage-iraq-isis/
An article on a Jewish blog that talks about Israeli involvement in Iraqi Kurdistan, including that of Mossad. The blog is primarily about Jewish refugees:
http://jewishrefugees.blogspot.in/2010/06/kurdish-magazine-appeals-for-jewish.html
An Article on RT that shows a map of how the oil flows
http://rt.com/business/169608-genel-energy-kurdish-oil/
Fighting extremism a dollar at a time
http://rt.com/politics/169352-russian-extremism-financing-ban/

Okay - I heard you! I will further tighten the "Nazi-control policies"

Okay, I heard you and you were right.

Effective immediately, I will tighten the "Nazi-control policies" even further and more of their posts will go to the trash bin in even grater numbers than before.

For the record, while I have seen a few Ziotrolls popping up on a regular basis (and, for the record, I also consider Zionism as a clear form of racism and Jewish supremacism which I categorically oppose), their numbers are *nothing* in comparison to the outright harassment campaign that this blog has been submitted to by the Nazis, neo-Nazis, para-Nazis, and kinda-Nazis.  To them I say: 

Boy am I sick and tired of you guys......  For one thing, you belong on the side of the Bandera-fans and their western ideological supporters, not on a blog which is 100% anti-racist.  And if you are too arrogant or too stupid to understand that, then I will help you more energetically form now on.

To all others - my apologies for being too permissive and too slow to take action.  My bad.

Kind regards,

The Saker

PS: important clarification: some of you have suggested that I bring these pests upon myself by references to WWII.  Guys - these references are indispensable to understand what is going on, and this is exactly how these events are viewed in Novorossia.  It might be strange for somebody in the USA or Australia to hear that many (most?) Russians consider the current war in the Ukraine as a direct continuation of WWII, but this is how many (most?) of us feel.  Likewise, it is absolutely impossible to understand the Right Sektor, the Freedom Party, and even the Fatherland Party without understanding that these are truly the direct ideological heirs to Bandera and his allies.   So if this a cultural and geographical difference in perception (Anglo-Saxon vs Slavic) I would suggest that you might as well accept and get used to the fact that this is how many (most?) people on both sides of this conflict see this war: a direct continuation of WWII.    The Saker

Ceasefire over - a short SITREP from Juan

From the website of the US Gauleiter in Kiev, Petro Poroshenko: “We will attack and liberate our land". And attack they sure did. Below is the report which Juan has just sent me.

The Saker
------
The situation deteriorated. Kramatorsk is being flattened by intense bombardment. The ukes are using everything they have including gas and multiple Grad and Hurricane salvos.

04:00 Heavy armor moving on Kramatorsk. A full regiment including main battle tanks.

05:00 Sukhoi aircraft attacks started Kramatorsk. Reports one has been shot down, not confirmed.

05:30 Intense fighting has commenced outskirts Kramatorsk. Tactical situations unknown.


06:45 Heavy civilian casualties reported Kramatorsk. Civilian living areas are targeted. One hospital has been hit and is burning. Casualties unknown in hospital. One 7 floor flats building has collapsed. Casualties unknown.

Slavyansk and outlying villages and towns are under heavy bombardment from Karachun Mountain. Civilian living areas targeted. Reports two flats buildings burning. Reports 2 hospitals including children hospital hit multiple times. Heavy casualties reported at hospitals, unconfirmed.

03:20 Counter batter fire from Army Novorossiya has knocked down 110 m high radio/TV tower on Karachun Mountain (second party visual confirmation). Nazis had observation platforms on the tower. Unknown if platforms manned at time of destruction.

Confirmed Air Defense unit A-1402 taken by Army Novorossiya. Condition of air defense missile systems and related targeting and control systems unknown 07:10. Additional ordinance supply for systems unknown in quantity or quality.

Real time communication with Slavyansk and Donetsk City lost 03:20 today.

Donetsk City outlying areas coming under artillery fire. 04:30.

There was no 'cease fire'. During the slight decrease of hostilities of the last week the Nazis used the time to send massive reinforcements and supplies to Novorossiya and positioned their units for the assaults extant this morning. Strong attempts were made by Nazi units to disrupt humanitarian aid and gifts coming across the Russia/Novorossiya borders.

The preplanned in the event of capture demolition of the military park in Donetsk is destroying a large ammunition, weapon and equipment store destined for the 5th Column right sector units in Donetsk City.


Juan

June 30th Novorossia News Bulletin by the ANNA news agency

Note: I know, a bad quality video with bad quality subtitles.  Sorry, but there is nothing I can do about that.  The Saker