I have to say that I am rather shocked and even appalled at the level of anger and vitriol expressed in some of the comments posted in response to my attempts to explain why Russia has not intervened so far in the war in waged by the junta against the people of Novorossiia. While at least two posters are clearly getting back at me personally because of things I wrote in the past which enraged them personally (no need to name them - they know I mean them), there are also at least three major groups of posters whom I cannot dismiss as frustrated "petty avengers"
Calling out the crazies
Apparently, one group of true friends of the Novorossian people are much better informed about the plans of the AngloZionist Empire than Putin and as a result of that superior understanding they believe that the best way to defeat the plans of the AngloZionists is to to exactly what they want Russia to do. Then there is this other group who believes that Putin has basically sold out to the New World Order and that this is a huge mistake because the latter has already taken the decision to start a full-scale war against Russia in the near future (some suggest 2015). And then there are those who see Putin as a weakling who just does not have the courage or brains to do the right thing, which would be to engage into a full-scale covert operation to assist the people of Novorossiia. This third group is absolutely sure that, even though the AngloZionists have been accusing Russia of having an ongoing covert interference operation to assist Novorossia, no such plan is being implemented. Why? Because they see no evidence of it. For them the absence of evidence is the same as the evidence of absence. Even in the case of a covert plan.
Has everybody going crazy or is there something else going on here?
US Strategic PSYOPs spring the trap
Even setting aside the full-blown lunatics who would have Russia nuke London, Washington or even "the entire Anglo-Saxon race" (as one drooling idiot wrote to me), what amazes me is the level of hostility rage that literally seeps-out from many, though thankfully not all, of these comments. While some of that rage can be explained by the statistically inevitable presence of idiots in any group, including the readers of this blog, I am beginning to suspect that what is happening here is tiny part of a much bigger campaign to get Russia into finally taking the bait and making the AngloZionist's dream come true and basically make it possible to put a new "iron curtain" somewhere along the banks of the Dniepr river. In other words, I think that what we are seeing are signs of a "strategic PSYOP" operation which includes the following elements:
1) The support for even the most revolting atrocities in the eastern and southern Ukraine (the latest such atrocity reportedly is execution of wounded soldiers in the hospital of Krasnyi Liman).
2) A massive media PR campaign to demonize Putin as, what else, the "new Hitler".
3) The use of Central European prostitutes (aka politicians) to warn of a "Russian threat" to the European continent).
4) The mantric repetition of threats to sanction Russia (even though no real sanctions are actually implemented).
5) An uninhibited "in-your-face" official doublethink discourse a la Jen Psaki which does not even pretend to be honest or informed about the Ukraine.
6) The use of so-called Russian "patriots" and other "nationalists" to attack Putin and his policies as "treacherous" and "weak".
Fake Russian patriots (again)
Here I need to mention something which has received very little attention in the West, but which has been reported in Russia: many, if not most, of the most rabidly nationalistic and even neo-Nazi websites and blogs of the RuNet Russian Internet have been traced to, believe it or not, Canada and Israel. Yup - some *real* Russian patriots (like Maksim Shevchenko) got curious about the level of insanity of some of these websites, in particular the hysterically anti-Jewish ones, and they began systematically tracing their IP addresses. That is when they found out that these sites were mostly run from outside Russia and by folks who had more ties to the US and Israel than to any other group.
Russian Communists as "useful idiots" of the Empire
I myself have noticed that a lot of the anti-Putin PR often comes from either from supporters of the Russian Communist Party or, at least, is based on articles and idea spread by individuals close to the Russian CP. I don't really have the time to go into an in-depth discussion of who nowadays supports to RCP or why, but I will say that my personal conclusion is that some PR strategists of the RCP seem to have decided that a campaign to accuse Putin of being a coward, an idiot or a sellout to the West will benefit them and their leader Zyuganov. Considering that Putin's popularity in Russia is already sky-high and still climbing (something in the range of 80% last time I checked) this campaign has little or not traction in Russia. But it has been picked up by the US PSYOP community as a sign that "real patriots" in Russia would "courageously take the AngloZionist bait" instead of acting like Putin who is "waiting on the sidelines while Russians are killed in the Donbass".
While Russia take the bait?
Maybe. The problem is that for peace it takes two, while war (whether of the hot or cold type) only takes one. Please don't misunderstand me: I don't believe for one second that the AngloZionists want a real war with Russia because even if there are some truly rabid politicians who would want that, they cannot wage a war without the support of the top US military commanders who, for all their other faults and sins, are not crazy and who will not allow a full-scale war against Russia or China to happen. That is not to say that US military commanders are shy about provoking Russia (or China), but when confronted with the clear warning of the other side that there is a line not to be crossed (like the one given to the USA by Russia in 08.08.08) they back down each time which, frankly, is not a sign of weakness, but a sign of pragmatism and intelligence. The US officer corps should not be judged by Rambo or Dr. Strangelove movies - I have met many American officers ranging from young Lieutenants to one Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and I have never met Rambo or Dr Strangelove types (in contrast to the CIA which for some reason, seems to attract lunatics and disturbed individuals). This being said, I would not put it past the AngloZionists to play a reckless game of brinkmanship with Russia which would include all possible provocation short of triggering a hot war. Alas, that might be enough.
Putin is in a very tough spot right now. Emotions are really running very high in Russia and a lot of people are sincerely enraged at the constant daily stream of news about horrors and atrocities in Novorossia. For example, while the western media has not mentioned this at all, the number of refugees from the combat zone has been steadily rising, mostly in Crimea and the Rostov-on-the-Don region where over 7'000 refugees have arrived over the past few days. The footage of terrified kids, exhausted women and sobbing elderly people is absolutely revolting and the Russian media cannot not show these people just because it puts the Kremlin in a tough spot.
Also - there is no doubt in my mind at all that Russia is covertly helping the NDF. Of course, there is no proof of that since - by definition - this is a *covert* assistance, but I am quite sure that it is there, if only because of the kind of weapons which the NDF seems to regularly "find" "abandoned" here and there. Or does anybody seriously believe that the NDF has the money and time to go and purchase Igla MANPADS or advanced anti-tank missiles on the world weapons black market? The problem with covert operations is that you only find out about them when they are botched. So as long as the Russian covert support operation is competently run it does *absolutely nothing* to reassure those who are afraid that Russia is just idly standing by. As I said, some see absence of evidence as the evidence of absence, and only a botched covert operation can reassure them. But at what cost for Russia and Novorossia?
It might all boil down to the European public opinion
It might really all boil down to the European public opinion. There are some signs that the more and more people in the EU are becoming aware of the fact that their leaders are supporting a neo-Nazi junta who is waging a full-scale war against its own people. I believe that one part of the current Russian response to the war is to try to trigger some tensions between the USA and its EU vassals which are already here anyway (as seen by Mrs Nuland's words). After all, while EU politicians have sold out to the AngloZionists, they still don't like it when pressure against them is mounting on them for agreeing to policies which are so clearly detrimental for Europe. Right now Merkel, Holland & Co. are in lockstep with Obama, but that hardly means that the people of Europe are blind to what this crazy surrender of national interest might cost them. Oh, I don't expect the Europeans to engage in mass protests like in 1968 just because innocent civilians are being slaughtered on their continent - the European "conscience" is not that tender - but if 10% of all jobs in Germany are threatened or if France has to return 1.6 billion US dollars to Russia and lose roughly 7'000 high-tech jobs, there will be a political price to pay for the EU's 1%ers. One look at the recent EU elections will convince them that the writing is on the wall.
So if Putin and Lavrov succeed in driving a wedge, even a thin one, between the US and EU a Russian intervention might be avoided. But if these efforts fail and if the butchery in the Donbass continues (the Kiev junta has just cut the water supply to Slaviansk) then a Russian intervention will happen with all the inevitable consequences, fist and foremost for the European continent (Russia and the US will be much less affected).
The Saker
Thursday, June 5, 2014
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
Considering the "what ifs" and "then whats" of a direct Russian intervention in the Donbass
It has been my recurrent effort on this blog to try to explain the likely reasons why Russia has not intervened so far in the war between Banderastan and Novorosiia. I notice that those who see signs of "betrayal" or "sellout" by Putin are long on accusations but very short on specifics. Unlike the excellent article which I recently posted as a "must read", the folks who are busy accusing Putin of betrayal stop at the very short term: send guns, send men, impose a no-fly zone, strike this or that unit, etc. Fine. And then what? It is that "then what?" which our armchair patriots systematically shy away from. Besides "then what?" the other issue which these armchair strategists shy away from is "what if?". What if the Bandera freaks really open up with everything they have, out of spite or out of retaliation, and what if they really flatten Kramatorsk, Slaviansk or an entire neighborhood of Donetsk? What if the dead at this point turn from tens or hundreds into the many thousands? Those who mistakenly believe that the junta forces have already used "massive artillery strikes" should look up the concept "огневой вал" which is often translated as "artillery barrage" which, while not incorrect, does not even begin to convey the meaning that it has in Russian military doctrine. Rather than to give figures, just take a look at these:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7Zslwq4dxk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAtQq5tAxs0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIpW7BuaPZ4 (shows Ukrainian training)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UNsqONPtGo (shows various systems)
My point is this: the Ukrainians have the systems needed to *really* flatten a town and they are trained to do so. So what if they do that? Then what?
Of course, Russia has the means to rapidly destroy the Ukrainian artillery units in the Donbass, but that would mark yet another escalation of the conflict. Then what?
Or what if the US orders Poroshenko to "request" the protection of NATO? And what if NATO does something really dumb like the initial deployment of the 82nd Airborne to Saudi Arabia as part of Desert Shield? Why do I call "Desert Shield" really dumb? Because unbeknown to the American public, the 82nd AB was put into a very dangerous situation: this light infantry force was deployed as a "tripwire" force meaning that if the Iraqis crossed into the KSA they would have to engage the 82nd and that meant attacking the USA. Brilliant? Hardly. The 82nd is a light infantry force which has zero change against the large Iraqi tank formations. The *hope* on the US side was that US airpower would be enough to stop the Iraqis. And it was just that - hope. Years later, I think it was Dick Cheney who was asked by a reporter what would have happened if US airpower would not have been enough to deter Saddam and if the 82nd had been butchered. You know what he replied? "We would have had no other option to to use our nuclear weapons". So finally the truth came out: the White House was ready to take the risk sacrifice the 82nd AB and it was "hoping" that the US would not have to use nukes. I don't know about you, but seeing Imperial leaders "hoping" not to use nukes really scares me.
So what if Obama (whose Administration must have an average IQ lower then George Bush Senior one's by at least 20 points!) puts down a "tripwire" force along the Dniper and what if the Ukrainians organize combat operation or even military strikes from behind this tripwire force? Then what?
One more example? Sure!
It is not unreasonable to suspect that maybe 15%-20% of the folks living in the Donbass/Novorossia region are not pro-Russian at all and that they support the junta. This is a big area with, if I recall correctly, something in the range of 7 million people living in the Donetsk-Lugansk region, so even 10% of 7 million is still 700'000 people supporting Kiev. From these 700'000 let's take on 10% capable of fighting (70'000) and let us assume that only 1/4 of them would be actually willing to seriously fight. That is still 17'500 men willing to fight in just two region of a much bigger south-eastern Ukraine. That is way more than the IRA ever had in its ranks. That is even more than Hezbollah has today!
Speaking of the IRA - remember how the Brits deployed in Northern Ireland to officially restore peace and security? (If not, see the "Operation Banner" entry on Wikipedia for a quick refresher). That also seemed like a no brainer at that time. It turned into a prolonged nightmare.
I could multiply such examples ad nauseam but you get my point: unlike some of our wannabe strategists, Putin and his Russian Security Council members have to consider the full-spectrum of possible "what ifs" and "then whats" before taking a decision to intervene. And I haste to add that a covert intervention is dangerous too: if, so far, Kiev has failed to capture a single Russian "agent" or "operator" this does not mean that this might not happen and that would be a political disaster for Russia. And if you think that the SBU could not catch itself in broad daylight you are right - except that in this case the Ukrainians would just be the arm of the US CIA/NSA who, you can be sure of that, are the one using all their formidable means to locate any Russian covert activity in the Ukraine.
I won't even address the comments of some lunatics who are seriously suggesting that Russian should nuke London or any other such stupidities. I conclusion I will just say this: like it or not, there is a consensus in Russia right now that a direct intervention would be a huge mistake. As for covert aid, we can only speculate about it, but I do notice that the Novorossiia Defense Forces seem to regularly "find" "abandoned" weapons just of the type which they need most. As to those who constantly demand a Russian intervention in the Donbass I will say this: unless you can support your calls for intervention with all the appropriate "what ifs" and "then whats" - don't bother posting them here as you are only making yourself look amateurish and irresponsible. If you are such a hero - grab a gun and go fight yourself, but don't tell others when/how they should die.
The Saker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7Zslwq4dxk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAtQq5tAxs0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIpW7BuaPZ4 (shows Ukrainian training)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UNsqONPtGo (shows various systems)
My point is this: the Ukrainians have the systems needed to *really* flatten a town and they are trained to do so. So what if they do that? Then what?
Of course, Russia has the means to rapidly destroy the Ukrainian artillery units in the Donbass, but that would mark yet another escalation of the conflict. Then what?
Or what if the US orders Poroshenko to "request" the protection of NATO? And what if NATO does something really dumb like the initial deployment of the 82nd Airborne to Saudi Arabia as part of Desert Shield? Why do I call "Desert Shield" really dumb? Because unbeknown to the American public, the 82nd AB was put into a very dangerous situation: this light infantry force was deployed as a "tripwire" force meaning that if the Iraqis crossed into the KSA they would have to engage the 82nd and that meant attacking the USA. Brilliant? Hardly. The 82nd is a light infantry force which has zero change against the large Iraqi tank formations. The *hope* on the US side was that US airpower would be enough to stop the Iraqis. And it was just that - hope. Years later, I think it was Dick Cheney who was asked by a reporter what would have happened if US airpower would not have been enough to deter Saddam and if the 82nd had been butchered. You know what he replied? "We would have had no other option to to use our nuclear weapons". So finally the truth came out: the White House was ready to take the risk sacrifice the 82nd AB and it was "hoping" that the US would not have to use nukes. I don't know about you, but seeing Imperial leaders "hoping" not to use nukes really scares me.
So what if Obama (whose Administration must have an average IQ lower then George Bush Senior one's by at least 20 points!) puts down a "tripwire" force along the Dniper and what if the Ukrainians organize combat operation or even military strikes from behind this tripwire force? Then what?
One more example? Sure!
It is not unreasonable to suspect that maybe 15%-20% of the folks living in the Donbass/Novorossia region are not pro-Russian at all and that they support the junta. This is a big area with, if I recall correctly, something in the range of 7 million people living in the Donetsk-Lugansk region, so even 10% of 7 million is still 700'000 people supporting Kiev. From these 700'000 let's take on 10% capable of fighting (70'000) and let us assume that only 1/4 of them would be actually willing to seriously fight. That is still 17'500 men willing to fight in just two region of a much bigger south-eastern Ukraine. That is way more than the IRA ever had in its ranks. That is even more than Hezbollah has today!
Speaking of the IRA - remember how the Brits deployed in Northern Ireland to officially restore peace and security? (If not, see the "Operation Banner" entry on Wikipedia for a quick refresher). That also seemed like a no brainer at that time. It turned into a prolonged nightmare.
I could multiply such examples ad nauseam but you get my point: unlike some of our wannabe strategists, Putin and his Russian Security Council members have to consider the full-spectrum of possible "what ifs" and "then whats" before taking a decision to intervene. And I haste to add that a covert intervention is dangerous too: if, so far, Kiev has failed to capture a single Russian "agent" or "operator" this does not mean that this might not happen and that would be a political disaster for Russia. And if you think that the SBU could not catch itself in broad daylight you are right - except that in this case the Ukrainians would just be the arm of the US CIA/NSA who, you can be sure of that, are the one using all their formidable means to locate any Russian covert activity in the Ukraine.
I won't even address the comments of some lunatics who are seriously suggesting that Russian should nuke London or any other such stupidities. I conclusion I will just say this: like it or not, there is a consensus in Russia right now that a direct intervention would be a huge mistake. As for covert aid, we can only speculate about it, but I do notice that the Novorossiia Defense Forces seem to regularly "find" "abandoned" weapons just of the type which they need most. As to those who constantly demand a Russian intervention in the Donbass I will say this: unless you can support your calls for intervention with all the appropriate "what ifs" and "then whats" - don't bother posting them here as you are only making yourself look amateurish and irresponsible. If you are such a hero - grab a gun and go fight yourself, but don't tell others when/how they should die.
The Saker
Tuesday, June 3, 2014
Very interesting admission by a senior US diplomat: Russia "betrayed" the NWO
I was just watching Alain Soral's latest video when I heard him offer a very interesting explanation for why the AngloZionist Empire hates Putin so much. The article Soral quotes is entitled "The End of the New World Order" and it has been written by Christopher R. Hill, "former US Assistant Secretary of State for East
Asia, was US Ambassador to Iraq, South Korea, Macedonia, and Poland, a
US special envoy for Kosovo, a negotiator of the Dayton Peace Accords,
and the chief US negotiator with North Korea from 2005-2009", i.e. a big shot in the US imperial nomenklatura. Here is what Hill writes:
Yes, today Russia has fundamentally turned away from the NWO and purged most, if not all, of the pro-NWO elite in Moscow. The future of Russia is in Asia and in the great Russian North and there is nothing the AngloZionist Empire can do about that.
The Saker
Russia’s annexation of Crimea and ongoing intimidation of Ukraine appears to mean the end of a 25-year period whose hallmark was an effort to bring Russia into greater alignment with Euro-Atlantic goals and traditions. Now the question is: What comes next? (...) [the] new world order held for almost 25 years. Except for Russia’s brief war with Georgia in August 2008 (a conflict generally seen as instigated by reckless Georgian leadership), Russia’s acquiescence and commitment to the “new world order,” however problematic, was one of the great accomplishments of the post-Cold War era. Even Russia’s reluctance to support concerted Western action, such as in Bosnia and Kosovo in the 1990’s, was based on arguments that could be heard in other European countries. Russian democracy certainly had its share of flaws, but that hardly made it unique among post-communist countries. (...) Americans do need to understand the challenge they are facing from a Russia that no longer seems interested in what the West has been offering for the last 25 years: special status with NATO, a privileged relationship with the European Union, and partnership in international diplomatic endeavor.Bingo! For all the wrong reasons (the usual crap about a resurgent and revanchist Russian Empire), Hill is absolutely right: Russia has absolutely zero interest in the "Western project". Yup! From 1991 (and really even before that) to 1999 Russia was an imperial colony run by a collection of mostly Jewish oligarchs who hated Russia and who literally stole everything they could. From 1999 to 2012 Putin and his "Eurasian Sovereignists" had to share power with Medvedev's "Atlantic Integrationists" (for the meaning of these terms see here and here) but since 2012 the former have pretty much seized full control of the Russian state. Hence the apparent change in course since 2012 and the West's hysterical reaction of outrage, impotent furstration and barely contained hatred for the men whom they see as the number one enemy of the NWO on the planet and in that assessment they are actually absolutely correct, if late.
Yes, today Russia has fundamentally turned away from the NWO and purged most, if not all, of the pro-NWO elite in Moscow. The future of Russia is in Asia and in the great Russian North and there is nothing the AngloZionist Empire can do about that.
The Saker
Making sense of Obama's billion dollar hammer
You probably heard it by now: Obama has pledged a billion dollars to what my "beloved" BBC called "European security". The official name for this initiative is the "European Reassurance Initiative". You see, Obama and the BBC apparently believe that Europeans are really terrified and that they believe that the Russian tanks might roll into Warsaw, Athens, Rome or Lisbon at any time. The good news is that Uncle Sam is here to reassure them that he will let no such thing happen and that this additional 1 billion dollars will deter the Russian Bear.
Have you ever read something more ridiculous?
So what is really going on here?
There is a wonderful American expression which says that "to a man with a hammer everything looks like a nail". Well, to Obama, the EU and the Ukraine sure do look like nails because the only instrument the USA has used in its foreign policy for many decades now is a "hammer" composed of money and guns. But let's backtrack for a second.
I submit that the US policy in Europe is nothing short of a total failure. Not only has the US-instigated coup in the Ukraine turned into a full-spectrum disaster, but the latest elections in Europe clearly show that the European public is becoming more anti-EU and more anti-US. In fact, since the EU is nothing more than a US instrument of colonial domination over Europe, being anti-EU is being anti-US. Bernard-Henri Levi, the hyper-Zionist clown who fancies himself a "philosopher" and who is the darling of the European elites, once said that "anti-Americanism is a metaphor for anti-Semitism". To paraphrase him I would say that "anti-Europeanism is a metaphor for anti-Americanism" (at least if by "Europe" we understand that trans-national horror known as the EU and not the "Europe of the fatherlands" which de Gaulle, a true patriot of France and Europe, had called for). And the folks in DC understand that too, they are not stupid. Worse of all for them, time is running out and the situation on the ground is getting worse and worse not by the day, but by the hour. France, in particular, might explode literally any day.
But the real problem is not in Europe or in the Ukraine, it is in the USA. The US leadership, clearly intoxicated on imperial hubris and 1% class arrogance, has simply forgotten Bismark's motto that "politics is the art of the possible" and this is why instead of seeking some kind of best possible compromise leading to the best possible outcome, they are holding on with a desperate death-grip to an impossible outcome: a Europe run by the EU and a unitary state of Banderastan on the border with Russia. That ain't gonna happen, of course. In fact, the harder the US pushes for such an outcome, the less likely it is to ever become reality. No need to read Hegel to understand that - a quick look at the recent events in Europe clearly shows that the AngloZionist imperial design for the ATTU (Atlantic to the Ural) zone is going nowhere and will end up in an embarrassing meltdown.
Faced with this prospect, the White House does what the French call "fuite en avant" ("fleeing forward" if you want, or "advancing even faster into the quicksands"). The Russians did not take the Ukrainian bait? Fine - we will pretend like they did anyway and "reassure" the Europeans by declaring that "the security of America's European allies is sacrosanct" with enough gravitas to hopefully make them believe that they are really threatened. The neo-Nazi junta has just engaged in yet another massacre in the east? No problem, we will simply praise the regime for its restraint and "democratic nature". The EU leaders are having a panic attack over the latest elections? No problem either, we will just give them a one billion dollar bribe to show them that we will stand by them no matter what and regardless of whom those pesky Europeans might vote for the next time around.
Because, of course, this is what this billion dollar is all about. It's just bribe money for the 1% in the US and the EU to be distributed amongst these plutocrats under the guise of "reassuring Europe". In reality, the "European Reassurance Initiative" only serves to reassure the European elites and the Eurobureaucrats as they are the only ones who will truly benefit from it. And were shall the money come from? Well, hell, Uncle Sam can just create it out of thin air with a few keystrokes on the right computer. And as long as the EU and the rest of the US-colonized planet continues to accept payments in dollars, they will be the ones really paying for this "EU plutocracy reassurance initiative".
You might retort that this is a stupid strategy which will only make things worse. And you would be right. But not in the very short term, which is really the only term which has ever mattered to capitalists anyway. Besides, money and guns are the only two "policy instruments" the US elites understand, so why not throw some money at the issue and hope that guns will make the Empire look stronger?
It is as pathetic as it is immoral. The good news is that the AngloZionist Empire is really sabotaging itself and that it does so faster and better than any outside power could ever dream of. And we are far from having seen the worst of it (just think of what a Hillary Presidency would look like!).
As for the people of Novorossia and Russia - they should keep their cool and realize that all this hot air blowing from the West is just that - hot air. Yes, sometimes they *sound* scary, but that only because American politicians are the masters of make believe and that they are running what Chris Hedges so brilliantly called the "Empire of Illusions". No matter what they say, the reality on the ground, in the real world, is that Kiev does not have any military option in the Donbass just like the AngloZionist Empire has no military option against Russia. Yes, they can *pretend* like they have, but that does not make it so.
What we all should keep in mind is that neither money nor guns win wars. Yes, they are important factors, but they cannot decide an outcome. Willpower does. The Americans, by the way, are quite aware of that. The dumb ones really believe their own propaganda, but the smart ones know that the real purpose of the US "make believe propaganda" is not to really make it happen, but to demoralize the opponent and break down his will to resist. The danger of that is that the moment your opponent really understands that he will immediately understand something else too: that your bark is far bigger than your bite. This is what has happened with Hezbollah.
For years the AngloZionist propaganda has presented the IDF as some kind of elite, almost invincible, force (which they never were, as anybody who has trained with them knows). And that myth of Israeli invincibility has literally paralyzed the entire Middle-East until Hezbollah challenged it. As Robert Fisk reported in 2006 "while in the past the Lebanese would jump into their cars and drive north as soon as an Israeli attack was announced, now they would jump in their cars and drive south". That "switch" in the mind of the Lebanese is what really defeated the IDF in 2006, not some kind of Hezbollah super-weapon.
What does this mean for Novorossia?
It means that the people of Novorossia must truly believe in themselves and stop hoping for a Russian intervention which is not going to happen, at least at this moment in time. Let Obama shake his billion dollar hammer until he drops in exhaustion, but never let that distract you from a victory which is very much within your reach. Yes, the massacres in Odessa, Mariupol, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Donetsk and now Lugansk are disgusting atrocities which cannot be forgiven or forgotten, but they are not on the same scale as the horrors of WWII and yet the Russian people eventually also won that war.
Lies and terror have the exact same purpose: to defeat the will of their target and we can expect a lot more lies and terror from the neo-Nazis in Kiev and from the AngloZionist Empire. But if we take heed of Hezbollah's example in Lebanon and if we keep in mind that time is very much on our side, we will prevail, sooner rather than later.
The Saker
Have you ever read something more ridiculous?
So what is really going on here?
There is a wonderful American expression which says that "to a man with a hammer everything looks like a nail". Well, to Obama, the EU and the Ukraine sure do look like nails because the only instrument the USA has used in its foreign policy for many decades now is a "hammer" composed of money and guns. But let's backtrack for a second.
I submit that the US policy in Europe is nothing short of a total failure. Not only has the US-instigated coup in the Ukraine turned into a full-spectrum disaster, but the latest elections in Europe clearly show that the European public is becoming more anti-EU and more anti-US. In fact, since the EU is nothing more than a US instrument of colonial domination over Europe, being anti-EU is being anti-US. Bernard-Henri Levi, the hyper-Zionist clown who fancies himself a "philosopher" and who is the darling of the European elites, once said that "anti-Americanism is a metaphor for anti-Semitism". To paraphrase him I would say that "anti-Europeanism is a metaphor for anti-Americanism" (at least if by "Europe" we understand that trans-national horror known as the EU and not the "Europe of the fatherlands" which de Gaulle, a true patriot of France and Europe, had called for). And the folks in DC understand that too, they are not stupid. Worse of all for them, time is running out and the situation on the ground is getting worse and worse not by the day, but by the hour. France, in particular, might explode literally any day.
But the real problem is not in Europe or in the Ukraine, it is in the USA. The US leadership, clearly intoxicated on imperial hubris and 1% class arrogance, has simply forgotten Bismark's motto that "politics is the art of the possible" and this is why instead of seeking some kind of best possible compromise leading to the best possible outcome, they are holding on with a desperate death-grip to an impossible outcome: a Europe run by the EU and a unitary state of Banderastan on the border with Russia. That ain't gonna happen, of course. In fact, the harder the US pushes for such an outcome, the less likely it is to ever become reality. No need to read Hegel to understand that - a quick look at the recent events in Europe clearly shows that the AngloZionist imperial design for the ATTU (Atlantic to the Ural) zone is going nowhere and will end up in an embarrassing meltdown.
Faced with this prospect, the White House does what the French call "fuite en avant" ("fleeing forward" if you want, or "advancing even faster into the quicksands"). The Russians did not take the Ukrainian bait? Fine - we will pretend like they did anyway and "reassure" the Europeans by declaring that "the security of America's European allies is sacrosanct" with enough gravitas to hopefully make them believe that they are really threatened. The neo-Nazi junta has just engaged in yet another massacre in the east? No problem, we will simply praise the regime for its restraint and "democratic nature". The EU leaders are having a panic attack over the latest elections? No problem either, we will just give them a one billion dollar bribe to show them that we will stand by them no matter what and regardless of whom those pesky Europeans might vote for the next time around.
Because, of course, this is what this billion dollar is all about. It's just bribe money for the 1% in the US and the EU to be distributed amongst these plutocrats under the guise of "reassuring Europe". In reality, the "European Reassurance Initiative" only serves to reassure the European elites and the Eurobureaucrats as they are the only ones who will truly benefit from it. And were shall the money come from? Well, hell, Uncle Sam can just create it out of thin air with a few keystrokes on the right computer. And as long as the EU and the rest of the US-colonized planet continues to accept payments in dollars, they will be the ones really paying for this "EU plutocracy reassurance initiative".
You might retort that this is a stupid strategy which will only make things worse. And you would be right. But not in the very short term, which is really the only term which has ever mattered to capitalists anyway. Besides, money and guns are the only two "policy instruments" the US elites understand, so why not throw some money at the issue and hope that guns will make the Empire look stronger?
It is as pathetic as it is immoral. The good news is that the AngloZionist Empire is really sabotaging itself and that it does so faster and better than any outside power could ever dream of. And we are far from having seen the worst of it (just think of what a Hillary Presidency would look like!).
As for the people of Novorossia and Russia - they should keep their cool and realize that all this hot air blowing from the West is just that - hot air. Yes, sometimes they *sound* scary, but that only because American politicians are the masters of make believe and that they are running what Chris Hedges so brilliantly called the "Empire of Illusions". No matter what they say, the reality on the ground, in the real world, is that Kiev does not have any military option in the Donbass just like the AngloZionist Empire has no military option against Russia. Yes, they can *pretend* like they have, but that does not make it so.
What we all should keep in mind is that neither money nor guns win wars. Yes, they are important factors, but they cannot decide an outcome. Willpower does. The Americans, by the way, are quite aware of that. The dumb ones really believe their own propaganda, but the smart ones know that the real purpose of the US "make believe propaganda" is not to really make it happen, but to demoralize the opponent and break down his will to resist. The danger of that is that the moment your opponent really understands that he will immediately understand something else too: that your bark is far bigger than your bite. This is what has happened with Hezbollah.
For years the AngloZionist propaganda has presented the IDF as some kind of elite, almost invincible, force (which they never were, as anybody who has trained with them knows). And that myth of Israeli invincibility has literally paralyzed the entire Middle-East until Hezbollah challenged it. As Robert Fisk reported in 2006 "while in the past the Lebanese would jump into their cars and drive north as soon as an Israeli attack was announced, now they would jump in their cars and drive south". That "switch" in the mind of the Lebanese is what really defeated the IDF in 2006, not some kind of Hezbollah super-weapon.
What does this mean for Novorossia?
It means that the people of Novorossia must truly believe in themselves and stop hoping for a Russian intervention which is not going to happen, at least at this moment in time. Let Obama shake his billion dollar hammer until he drops in exhaustion, but never let that distract you from a victory which is very much within your reach. Yes, the massacres in Odessa, Mariupol, Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Donetsk and now Lugansk are disgusting atrocities which cannot be forgiven or forgotten, but they are not on the same scale as the horrors of WWII and yet the Russian people eventually also won that war.
Lies and terror have the exact same purpose: to defeat the will of their target and we can expect a lot more lies and terror from the neo-Nazis in Kiev and from the AngloZionist Empire. But if we take heed of Hezbollah's example in Lebanon and if we keep in mind that time is very much on our side, we will prevail, sooner rather than later.
The Saker
Russians are sub-humans in the eyes of the West
by "Juan"
Untermenschen. That is what we are in the eyes of The West. Untermenschen. Subhumans.
I have watched the unfolding coup d'etat in Ukraine from it's very beginning in late November 2013 in Kiev. I have watched a steady stream of western dignitaries and politicians parade through Maidan Square in Kiev, each and every one of them publicly and vocally expressing their open support of the coup d'etat. I find it appalling that the sitting ambassador of the United States of America to the Sovereign Country of Ukraine, Geoffrey R. Pyatt, actively and publicly supported a violent coup d'etat against the sitting and legally elected government of Ukraine and to this day actively and publicly expresses open support for the illegal coup d'etat installed government in Kiev.
On 01 December 2013 my wife and I watched the Right Sector and Svoboda Party operatives attempt to take the Presidential Administration Building on Bankhova Street in Kiev under the active and visible command of Vitaly Klitchko and Petro Poroshenko, two sitting deputats of the Ukraine Rada (parliament). After that 3 hour riot ended with Bankhova Street being finally cleared by Berkut riot police who were under orders to not go beyond the end of Bankhova Street, I told my wife President Yanukovich would lose against the coup d'etat. She told me I was crazy. 2 1/2 months later we were shoveling sand in to bags in the middle of the night at the new block post just above Belbek Aerodrome as our Self Defense Forces in Sevastopol and Krimea built and manned block posts at the Krim/Ukraine border and the 5 roads in to Sevastopol. The victors of the Maidan coup d'etat, Oleg Tyagnibok (a sitting deputat of Ukraine Rada) and Dmitro Yarush, leaders of Svoboda Party and Right Sector Party respectively, had stated, during a live interview on Channel 5 TV in Kiev on 27 February 2014, that they were going to lead their combined 5500 fighters from Miadan down to Krim and Sevastopol and 'kill every Russian there' combined with 'we will put every Russian in Krim to the knife'. We took them seriously and we knew they were heavily armed with AK 47's and RPGs, clearly seen in videos of the end and aftermath of the coup in Maidan. Those first two days and nights on the barricades we had only clubs for most of us.
Long story short, we seized our two governments from the Kiev appointed administrators, formed new governments for Sevastopol and the Autonomous Republic of Krimea and shortly thereafter activated a treaty signed with Russia in 1993 wherein Russia guaranteed the safety of the Autonomous Republic of Krimea and the City of Sevastopol. Russia honored that treaty and 3 days later the Russian Army arrived to protect us from the coup government in Kiev. The screams from The West were heard all the way to Mars. The screams were heard in the Andromeda Galaxy when we voted to join the Russian Federation and were excepted in to the RF.
Shortly after the coup d'etat in Kiev several eastern and southern oblasti (districts) in Ukraine expressed dissatisfaction with the 'new' illegal government installed in Kiev. Right Sector operatives immediately began to infiltrate in to those oblasti. Demonstrations turned sometimes violent and people died.
On 02 May there was a football match in Odessa on the south coast of Ukraine. We all know what happened in Odessa with the massacre of the anti Kiev demonstrators, unarmed demonstrators, in and around the Labor Union Building in Odessa as they were beaten, shot and burned to death. What you don't know is the true number of dead that day and evening. 297 anti Kiev demonstrators AND innocents died that day. Over 50 were in hospital. Some of those who jumped from the entrance hall stairway at the fourth and fifth floor levels were beaten to death as they lay on the ground. Others were made to crawl away, severely injured, and were kicked and beaten as they crawled to the pile of wounded.
To this day not a single western government that I am aware of has expressed the slightest sympathy or condolences for any of the wounded or dead in Odessa. The overriding comments from what little was said about Odessa in The West was the fact that the 'anti kiev activists and agents' accidently set the building on fire as they were throwing molotov cocktails at the football fans around the building. Why should they care? After all, the men, women, and yes, two children, who died in the massacre are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.
In the weeks before and after the massacre in Odessa the situation came to a head in Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast. Both declared their indendence from Ukraine and set up their own governments. The West screamed bloody murder as they are wont to do with their double standard and blamed everything on Russia and Mr. Putin including the drought in Mexico and the outbreak of teenaged acne in Australia.
The two oblasti set up self defense units as Kiev mobilized their army and formed a large 'national guard' unit from Right Sector fighters from Maidan and western and central Ukraine. On 9 May there was a massacre in the city of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, now the Donbas Peoples Republic. Over 100 unarmed citizens and Militsiya (police) were shot down, often right on live camera. Yes, many of the citizens were screaming great obscenities at the Right Sector unit that entered the city. The police where slaughtered in their headquarters for being 'disloyal' to Kiev Government. Some were burned alive, handcuffed, in the police headquarters as it was burned by the Right Sector unit.
To this day not a single western government that I am aware of has expressed the slightest sympathy or expressed condolences for the murdered men and women in Mariupol. After all, the dead citizens are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.
In the following days and weeks the Ukraine Army began to bombard villages, towns and cities starting with Slavyansk in Donbas. The first 'bombardment' was one single 82mm mortar round. With no reaction from either The West or Russia, the next day a heavy bombardment ocurred. In the days after the first heavy bombardments the toll of wounded, dead, maimed civilians mounted as the artillery was fired at patently civilian areas, we call them 'living areas'. Over 100 civilians have died in the last two weeks. A like number were wounded.
To this day not a single western government that I am aware of has expressed the slightest sympathy or expressed condolences for the murdered men and women and children in Donbas nor has a single western government asked Kiev to cease the bombardments. After all, the dead citizens are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.
Yesterday, 03 June 2014, shortly after noon local time there was an attack on the Lugansk City Administration Building in the center of Lugansk by a single Ukrainian Air Force Sukhoi 25 ground attack airplane. He fired a single volley of missiles at the front of the building. Yes, the building is the titular headquarters of Donbas Republic but 95% of the offices and workers in that building are city administration workers, civilians doing their work for the citizens of Lugansk and most of whom have worked there for years. Ukraine well knew that fact and attacked. The impact of the rockets are well documented in many videos extant on the internet as is the aftermath as the area is being policed up and the fire in the one burning office on the fourth floor is extinguished.
The first two attached videos are of the area immediately after the attack. They are graphic to an extreme and are not for those with a weak stomach. The woman in the red blouse with her dying breaths asks "Excuse me please, give me a telephone." Those words are an exact translation, she did say 'Excuse me please' before she requested the phone. The young man in the park whom they start CPR on died. The old man lying face down in the street is dead. The man face up with his head on a tyre died. The four women at the base of the entrance steps, three died instantly and the fourth, the lady with the red blouse, died in moments after her request. The man screaming as he takes the video of the carnage is screaming 'sookhie'. 'Sookha', singular, and 'sookhie', plural, is the Russian word for a female dog. Like in English, in Russian it also has the second meaning, as in bitch. Here it's fighting words.
The west media did mention this senseless slaughter after a fashion. They said in their very few 'articles' yesterday refering to this slaughter that the 'terrorists and rebels of the Donbas Army fired a Manpad that accidently hit the building'. This in spite of dozens of videos showing the missiles impacting in the park in front of the building and walking right up to the base and front facade of the building and the death and destruction in the park and in front of the building. Even the much vaunted BBC told the Manpad story.
The third video is of the artillery bombardment of Slavyansk at dawn and shortly after today, 03 June 2014. I do not know of the extent of the civilian casualties this morning in Slavyansk but I do know one 9 story flats building was hit square on the roof and was burning as of 06:00 local time as are other structures in Slavyansk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDPlr4lv884 slaughter in Lugansk admin bldg. 02 June
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ssqvx6UOvd4 death in the park in front of admin bldg. 02 June
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XOdazB-R1M Bombard Slavyansk 03 June
To this moment not a single western government or government official that I know of has expressed either sympathy or condolences for these dead civilians nor have any of them asked Kiev to cease these terror attacks. After all, the dead citizens are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.
I urge you all, each and every one of you, to flood your embassies, your ambassadors, your politicians, your presidents, your prime ministers, every government functionary you can find, with these videos. Perhaps their army of minions will not be able to stop all from getting through to them. Use email, use facebook, use twitter, use whatever you can. Show them WHAT THEY DID. Not that they will care. After all, we are Untermenschen.
But one thing they should understand. We, the Untermenschen, will fight them. Ukraine died in Odessa on 02 May 2014. Any chance of negotiations about Donbas died on 09 May 2014 in Mariupol. After Lugansk yesterday it will be a fight to the death. We will win. We Untermenschen will defeat you. We have no choice. We will fight you to our last breath and die fighting before we kneel in subservience to a single one of you.
For you politicians behind the coup d'etat in Kiev and the war against the citizens of Ukraine, you disgust me. I have only this to say to Merkel, Torchinov, Poroshenko, Holland, Cameron. Swift Boat John, Nuland and Obama, whoever the 'president' of poland is, each and every one of you, your minions and hangers on, the west politicians, ALL of you.
Damn your eyes, damn your souls, damn you to Hell, back to where you came from. You are beneath contempt.
Untermenschen. That is what we are in the eyes of The West. Untermenschen. Subhumans.
I have watched the unfolding coup d'etat in Ukraine from it's very beginning in late November 2013 in Kiev. I have watched a steady stream of western dignitaries and politicians parade through Maidan Square in Kiev, each and every one of them publicly and vocally expressing their open support of the coup d'etat. I find it appalling that the sitting ambassador of the United States of America to the Sovereign Country of Ukraine, Geoffrey R. Pyatt, actively and publicly supported a violent coup d'etat against the sitting and legally elected government of Ukraine and to this day actively and publicly expresses open support for the illegal coup d'etat installed government in Kiev.
On 01 December 2013 my wife and I watched the Right Sector and Svoboda Party operatives attempt to take the Presidential Administration Building on Bankhova Street in Kiev under the active and visible command of Vitaly Klitchko and Petro Poroshenko, two sitting deputats of the Ukraine Rada (parliament). After that 3 hour riot ended with Bankhova Street being finally cleared by Berkut riot police who were under orders to not go beyond the end of Bankhova Street, I told my wife President Yanukovich would lose against the coup d'etat. She told me I was crazy. 2 1/2 months later we were shoveling sand in to bags in the middle of the night at the new block post just above Belbek Aerodrome as our Self Defense Forces in Sevastopol and Krimea built and manned block posts at the Krim/Ukraine border and the 5 roads in to Sevastopol. The victors of the Maidan coup d'etat, Oleg Tyagnibok (a sitting deputat of Ukraine Rada) and Dmitro Yarush, leaders of Svoboda Party and Right Sector Party respectively, had stated, during a live interview on Channel 5 TV in Kiev on 27 February 2014, that they were going to lead their combined 5500 fighters from Miadan down to Krim and Sevastopol and 'kill every Russian there' combined with 'we will put every Russian in Krim to the knife'. We took them seriously and we knew they were heavily armed with AK 47's and RPGs, clearly seen in videos of the end and aftermath of the coup in Maidan. Those first two days and nights on the barricades we had only clubs for most of us.
Long story short, we seized our two governments from the Kiev appointed administrators, formed new governments for Sevastopol and the Autonomous Republic of Krimea and shortly thereafter activated a treaty signed with Russia in 1993 wherein Russia guaranteed the safety of the Autonomous Republic of Krimea and the City of Sevastopol. Russia honored that treaty and 3 days later the Russian Army arrived to protect us from the coup government in Kiev. The screams from The West were heard all the way to Mars. The screams were heard in the Andromeda Galaxy when we voted to join the Russian Federation and were excepted in to the RF.
Shortly after the coup d'etat in Kiev several eastern and southern oblasti (districts) in Ukraine expressed dissatisfaction with the 'new' illegal government installed in Kiev. Right Sector operatives immediately began to infiltrate in to those oblasti. Demonstrations turned sometimes violent and people died.
On 02 May there was a football match in Odessa on the south coast of Ukraine. We all know what happened in Odessa with the massacre of the anti Kiev demonstrators, unarmed demonstrators, in and around the Labor Union Building in Odessa as they were beaten, shot and burned to death. What you don't know is the true number of dead that day and evening. 297 anti Kiev demonstrators AND innocents died that day. Over 50 were in hospital. Some of those who jumped from the entrance hall stairway at the fourth and fifth floor levels were beaten to death as they lay on the ground. Others were made to crawl away, severely injured, and were kicked and beaten as they crawled to the pile of wounded.
To this day not a single western government that I am aware of has expressed the slightest sympathy or condolences for any of the wounded or dead in Odessa. The overriding comments from what little was said about Odessa in The West was the fact that the 'anti kiev activists and agents' accidently set the building on fire as they were throwing molotov cocktails at the football fans around the building. Why should they care? After all, the men, women, and yes, two children, who died in the massacre are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.
In the weeks before and after the massacre in Odessa the situation came to a head in Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast. Both declared their indendence from Ukraine and set up their own governments. The West screamed bloody murder as they are wont to do with their double standard and blamed everything on Russia and Mr. Putin including the drought in Mexico and the outbreak of teenaged acne in Australia.
The two oblasti set up self defense units as Kiev mobilized their army and formed a large 'national guard' unit from Right Sector fighters from Maidan and western and central Ukraine. On 9 May there was a massacre in the city of Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast, now the Donbas Peoples Republic. Over 100 unarmed citizens and Militsiya (police) were shot down, often right on live camera. Yes, many of the citizens were screaming great obscenities at the Right Sector unit that entered the city. The police where slaughtered in their headquarters for being 'disloyal' to Kiev Government. Some were burned alive, handcuffed, in the police headquarters as it was burned by the Right Sector unit.
To this day not a single western government that I am aware of has expressed the slightest sympathy or expressed condolences for the murdered men and women in Mariupol. After all, the dead citizens are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.
In the following days and weeks the Ukraine Army began to bombard villages, towns and cities starting with Slavyansk in Donbas. The first 'bombardment' was one single 82mm mortar round. With no reaction from either The West or Russia, the next day a heavy bombardment ocurred. In the days after the first heavy bombardments the toll of wounded, dead, maimed civilians mounted as the artillery was fired at patently civilian areas, we call them 'living areas'. Over 100 civilians have died in the last two weeks. A like number were wounded.
To this day not a single western government that I am aware of has expressed the slightest sympathy or expressed condolences for the murdered men and women and children in Donbas nor has a single western government asked Kiev to cease the bombardments. After all, the dead citizens are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.
Yesterday, 03 June 2014, shortly after noon local time there was an attack on the Lugansk City Administration Building in the center of Lugansk by a single Ukrainian Air Force Sukhoi 25 ground attack airplane. He fired a single volley of missiles at the front of the building. Yes, the building is the titular headquarters of Donbas Republic but 95% of the offices and workers in that building are city administration workers, civilians doing their work for the citizens of Lugansk and most of whom have worked there for years. Ukraine well knew that fact and attacked. The impact of the rockets are well documented in many videos extant on the internet as is the aftermath as the area is being policed up and the fire in the one burning office on the fourth floor is extinguished.
The first two attached videos are of the area immediately after the attack. They are graphic to an extreme and are not for those with a weak stomach. The woman in the red blouse with her dying breaths asks "Excuse me please, give me a telephone." Those words are an exact translation, she did say 'Excuse me please' before she requested the phone. The young man in the park whom they start CPR on died. The old man lying face down in the street is dead. The man face up with his head on a tyre died. The four women at the base of the entrance steps, three died instantly and the fourth, the lady with the red blouse, died in moments after her request. The man screaming as he takes the video of the carnage is screaming 'sookhie'. 'Sookha', singular, and 'sookhie', plural, is the Russian word for a female dog. Like in English, in Russian it also has the second meaning, as in bitch. Here it's fighting words.
The west media did mention this senseless slaughter after a fashion. They said in their very few 'articles' yesterday refering to this slaughter that the 'terrorists and rebels of the Donbas Army fired a Manpad that accidently hit the building'. This in spite of dozens of videos showing the missiles impacting in the park in front of the building and walking right up to the base and front facade of the building and the death and destruction in the park and in front of the building. Even the much vaunted BBC told the Manpad story.
The third video is of the artillery bombardment of Slavyansk at dawn and shortly after today, 03 June 2014. I do not know of the extent of the civilian casualties this morning in Slavyansk but I do know one 9 story flats building was hit square on the roof and was burning as of 06:00 local time as are other structures in Slavyansk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDPlr4lv884 slaughter in Lugansk admin bldg. 02 June
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ssqvx6UOvd4 death in the park in front of admin bldg. 02 June
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XOdazB-R1M Bombard Slavyansk 03 June
To this moment not a single western government or government official that I know of has expressed either sympathy or condolences for these dead civilians nor have any of them asked Kiev to cease these terror attacks. After all, the dead citizens are Untermenschen. WE are Untermenschen.
I urge you all, each and every one of you, to flood your embassies, your ambassadors, your politicians, your presidents, your prime ministers, every government functionary you can find, with these videos. Perhaps their army of minions will not be able to stop all from getting through to them. Use email, use facebook, use twitter, use whatever you can. Show them WHAT THEY DID. Not that they will care. After all, we are Untermenschen.
But one thing they should understand. We, the Untermenschen, will fight them. Ukraine died in Odessa on 02 May 2014. Any chance of negotiations about Donbas died on 09 May 2014 in Mariupol. After Lugansk yesterday it will be a fight to the death. We will win. We Untermenschen will defeat you. We have no choice. We will fight you to our last breath and die fighting before we kneel in subservience to a single one of you.
For you politicians behind the coup d'etat in Kiev and the war against the citizens of Ukraine, you disgust me. I have only this to say to Merkel, Torchinov, Poroshenko, Holland, Cameron. Swift Boat John, Nuland and Obama, whoever the 'president' of poland is, each and every one of you, your minions and hangers on, the west politicians, ALL of you.
Damn your eyes, damn your souls, damn you to Hell, back to where you came from. You are beneath contempt.
June 3rd combat SITREP update by "Juan"
- No sleep from 05:00 02.06. Please excuse spelling mistakes.
- During a protest near Lviv in west Ukraine by women demanding the return of their conscripted sons and husbands the women were beaten by Tyagnibok's Svoboda Party operatives. Two women are in hospital.
- Artillery fire commenced against the town of Severodonetsk 04:20 local time.
- Slavyansk and Kramatorsk heavy fighting resumed dawn today. 3 enemy BTR's destroyed before dawn 03 June 2014 Kramatorsk area. Casualties unknown.
- Lugansk fighting and artillery bombardments started dawn in outskirts. One flats building hit by artillery and on fire. Casualties unknown.
- 27 children including some milk babies were successfully evacuated from Kromatorsk after dark 01 June. Destination unknown.
- Intense fighting around Kramotorsk Aerodrome from dawn today. The distinctive sound of a German MG3 was clearly heard. This weapon is known to be in Nats armories in small numbers and some rechambered for Russian 7.62 x 54 round from NATO 7.62 x 51 round. High cyclic rate of fire.
- Ukraine Army is blocking all traffic in and out of Donetsk City and Slavyansk. No medical supplies are allowed in to either area. The prohibition of evacuating children from both cities is still in effect by Junta. Sick and severely wounded evacuation is prohibited.
- Reports of very heavy fighting suburbs of Slavyansk 08:10 local time. Reports of tank cannon fire in the area of fighting are unconfirmed. Tank cannon have a distinctive sound different from artillery of the same caliber.
- 09:29 local time column of tanks and BTR's have fought their way in to Slavyansk with right sector infantry. Very intense fighting extant in actual city.
I love the BBC (again and again!)
The BBC is wonderful. Here are the two Russia-linked headlines today:
They are just *priceless* in their absolute indifference to even most obvious and over-proven facts. Alain Soral is absolutely correct, nowadays a journalist (in the West) is either a prostitute, or unemployed.
The Saker
PS: Will the BBC hire Jen Psaki next?
- Russian Evgeniy Bogachev sought over cybercrime botnet
- Ukraine crisis: Border guards' centre is attacked
In Luhansk, there was an explosion in the main regional building seized by the separatists several weeks ago. It was not immediately known what caused the blast. Unconfirmed reports say there were casualties. Pro-Russian groups accused Ukraine's military of carrying out an air strike. Kiev denied the claim, suggesting that separatists in the building could have mishandled a portable anti-aircraft missile system.Ain't it wonderful? And notice the politically correct Ukie spelling of Lugansk as "Luhansk".
They are just *priceless* in their absolute indifference to even most obvious and over-proven facts. Alain Soral is absolutely correct, nowadays a journalist (in the West) is either a prostitute, or unemployed.
The Saker
PS: Will the BBC hire Jen Psaki next?
Monday, June 2, 2014
Lugansk attacked by Ukrainian Air Force
The city of Lugansk in the easternmost part of the ex-Ukraine has been attacked by Ukrainian combat aircraft. See for yourself:
The aircraft in question is a Sukhoi-25, a close air support aircraft which might well become the major threat for the NDF in the next few days or weeks.
The Su-25 is very hard to shoot down. It's cabin is armored and its widely separated engines are both equipped with highly survivable ans redundant systems.
Unlike the Ukrainian artillery the Su-25 can be used for very precise strikes but unlike the Ukrainian attack helicopters the Su-25 is extremely maneuverable and comparatively fast.
The Su-25 can fire guided and unguided missiles and bombs, it has a powerful dual 30mm gun and all sorts of pods, guidance systems and radars can be attacked to it. In other words, and just like the formidable US A-10, the Su-25 is an ugly but extremely effective close air support aircraft and if the Ukrainians can find enough of these in semi-decent condition and if they can find enough pilots willing to fly them, then this could be very bad news for the NDF who would have to put a lot of effort into defending their airspace from these extremely capable attackers.
The Saker
The aircraft in question is a Sukhoi-25, a close air support aircraft which might well become the major threat for the NDF in the next few days or weeks.
The Su-25 is very hard to shoot down. It's cabin is armored and its widely separated engines are both equipped with highly survivable ans redundant systems.
Unlike the Ukrainian artillery the Su-25 can be used for very precise strikes but unlike the Ukrainian attack helicopters the Su-25 is extremely maneuverable and comparatively fast.
The Su-25 can fire guided and unguided missiles and bombs, it has a powerful dual 30mm gun and all sorts of pods, guidance systems and radars can be attacked to it. In other words, and just like the formidable US A-10, the Su-25 is an ugly but extremely effective close air support aircraft and if the Ukrainians can find enough of these in semi-decent condition and if they can find enough pilots willing to fly them, then this could be very bad news for the NDF who would have to put a lot of effort into defending their airspace from these extremely capable attackers.
The Saker
Sunday, June 1, 2014
Auslander reports about the Ukrainian refugees situation in Crimea
Auslander reports from Crimea:
Today after Church we went to a facility that is housing some of the children and women from Slavyansk. The group consisted of Father and his wife, a senior Navy officer and his wife and we two. The officer had informed the facility of the time of our arrival and who was in the group.
I will not give the name or location of the facility beyond it is one of very many old Soviet holiday sights lining the Krim coast from north of Kerch on the east coast all the way around the peninsula to above Yevpatoria on the west coast. This facility, like many of them, was renovated in the last few years and is quite nice and clean as a whistle. The evacuees housed there are not crowded together by any stretch of the imagination and there will be more evacuees housed there in the next few days.
Security is tight and I'll leave it at that. The beach is beautiful, sand and very clean, the water shallow out to about 50 m from the gentle surf. As with almost all of these facilities there are extensive athletic grounds including a regulation football field. Nature trails are extant in the facility also. By the by, there are no sharks in the Black Sea and no tide, ergo swimming is safe for the children.
The housing facilities on sight are excellent, again clean almost to an extreme with substantial food preparation areas and a more than adequate dining area. The kitchen is spotless and as usual the staff are local women for the cooking and serving and in house cleaning. Local men do the grounds maintenance and cleaning. An efficient administration is in place and the usual on sight medical support has excellent rooms and modern equipment. Bath and toilet facilities are also spotless and modern, segregated to men at one end of the hallways and women at the other. All toiletries are provided as are soap, towels and washing pads in abundance. No photos are allowed.
The Evacuees
The number of evacuees at the facility are let's just say over 100. No men came from Slavyansk with this group. The ages of the group range from two almost brand new babies to late teenagers with a relatively small percentage of adult women, a few the mothers of some of the younger children and of course the mothers of the two babies. All will have a medical examination starting tomorrow.
The adult women are holding up well. All are distraught to one extent or another but all are functioning well with the children. We met with two groups of the women in private and their distress was quite visible when out of sight of the children. They are all very thankful to Russia for taking the children from harm's way. The evacuees run the gamut from upper middle class to quite poor.
Children are children. They are quite different here than in The West even though some of them try to mimic what they see on TV and the Internet from the west. It is in the eyes of the teenagers, especially the girls, where you can see the worry and fear just below the surface. The teenaged girls are working with the children, relatives or not, alongside of the adult women. The boys, some are worried, most are angry at the events in and around Slavyansk and their inability to do something about them. The boys are, after all, young men and the will to protect their families and their homes is already ingrained in them. There is adequate staff to assist the women with the children and keep the teenagers in line.
It is in the young children, the under 10 year olds, that the innocence yet reality comes through as you talk to them. After all, here is a group of children and teenagers who have seen far more than they should have at their tender ages and suddenly they are in another country in a heavily guarded facility and here are strangers including a foreigner in their midst. Some of the teenagers and younger children speak some English and more than one teenager was quite fluent in English, one so fluent she relieved my wife from translating for a while. Some of the children's comments, through the translators:
"It was hot that night, we had the windows open. The sounds were loud. There was a very loud noise on a car in front of our building. There was hail hitting our flat. There was fire outside, I could see it on the wall. My window was broken. My mother was afraid. My father was angry." 9 year old girl.
"A bomb fell near our flat. It was a small one, not the big ones. The sound is different. I am not afraid of the little ones but cats are afraid. We know when the little ones are coming because the cats run away. We hide when they run away." 7 year old girl.
"My neighbor's dog was killed that night. My neighbor, she cries all the time now. My mother said I have to leave home." 10 year old boy.
She looked at the scars on my arm and touched them, then pulled up my left shirt sleeve and looked. How she knew I don't know, the tattoo is 5cm above blousing level as per regs. "You are foreign." "Yes." "You are soldier." "I was." "Did you come here to kill me?" Asked matter of fact. Mother of God. How do you answer that? "No, I am not here to hurt you, I am here to help you and to keep you safe" in my very poor Russian. 10 year old girl. My teenaged translator dissolved in to tears. The child comforted her.
"I want to kill all those fascist pedarasti. My mother is afraid. My father is fighting. My father said I could not come with him, I don't know why. I am a man." 15 year old boy.
"I miss my boyfriend. He could not come, there was no more room on the bus. He kissed my before I got on the bus, right in front of my mother. I love him. I miss my mother. I want to go home." 14 year old girl.
"I miss my mother. I miss my father. I want to go home. Mother said I can't come home soon." 12 year old girl.
"They killed my neighbor. He was a kind man, he never hurt anyone. I was the first one to him after he fell off his bicycle. There was a lot of blood. He was dead. His wife was screaming. He took me fishing." 15 year old boy.
"It is so quiet here. There is no noise at all. I wish my mother and father were here with me. My mother likes to swim." 6 year old boy.
After we spoke to the women and children we spoke to the administrator. She assured us the children and women had everything they needed. The officer's wife asked about bathing suits for the children and dolls for the young girls.
We then had lunch with the evacuees. Lunch was excellent with plenty of food for the children, as much food, juice and milk as they wanted, fresh baked bread from the kitchen, gallons of tea for the adults. After lunch Father and I went to the only private shop in the facility, down by the beach. It sells bathing suits, shorts, sun tan oil, sun hats and other sundries for the beach. After we looked at the prices Father had a talk with the owner and an understanding was made. The children and women will get what they need for the beach at no charge to them. Father and I will split the bill and the prices will be normal market, not as marked. Father's assistant and the officer's wife will tomorrow get enough dolls for the young girls. All will be identical and will be delivered to the facility before dinner tomorrow by the officer's wife and other officer wives. Father and I will split that bill also along with the officer. I got to watch Father, though. He's pretty quick with a ruble....
When we returned the child who asked if I was there to kill her was my wife's shadow. On seeing me she ran to me. Got me a big hug and a smooch right on the cheek. I looked at my wife, she looked at me and we smiled grimly. If worse comes to worse for this child we will take her. We pray it won't come to that. She cried when we left. I told her we would be back in 2 days to see her and the other children. I asked her if she likes dogs. She said yes.
As of 15:54 today, 01 June 2014, no more evacuees are allowed to leave Slavyansk or Donetsk City. Ukraine Armed Forces have blockaded all the roads and rail lines out of both cities. No one is allowed in or out. There will be not be more children coming to this facility.
Donations are not needed at this time: all
is being taken care of by Mother and locally. Under no circumstances should anybody send money to charities here or
in Ukeland. There are a couple that are legitimate but
there's a lot of scams out there already. Figures, and totally
disgusting.
Today after Church we went to a facility that is housing some of the children and women from Slavyansk. The group consisted of Father and his wife, a senior Navy officer and his wife and we two. The officer had informed the facility of the time of our arrival and who was in the group.
I will not give the name or location of the facility beyond it is one of very many old Soviet holiday sights lining the Krim coast from north of Kerch on the east coast all the way around the peninsula to above Yevpatoria on the west coast. This facility, like many of them, was renovated in the last few years and is quite nice and clean as a whistle. The evacuees housed there are not crowded together by any stretch of the imagination and there will be more evacuees housed there in the next few days.
Security is tight and I'll leave it at that. The beach is beautiful, sand and very clean, the water shallow out to about 50 m from the gentle surf. As with almost all of these facilities there are extensive athletic grounds including a regulation football field. Nature trails are extant in the facility also. By the by, there are no sharks in the Black Sea and no tide, ergo swimming is safe for the children.
The housing facilities on sight are excellent, again clean almost to an extreme with substantial food preparation areas and a more than adequate dining area. The kitchen is spotless and as usual the staff are local women for the cooking and serving and in house cleaning. Local men do the grounds maintenance and cleaning. An efficient administration is in place and the usual on sight medical support has excellent rooms and modern equipment. Bath and toilet facilities are also spotless and modern, segregated to men at one end of the hallways and women at the other. All toiletries are provided as are soap, towels and washing pads in abundance. No photos are allowed.
The Evacuees
The number of evacuees at the facility are let's just say over 100. No men came from Slavyansk with this group. The ages of the group range from two almost brand new babies to late teenagers with a relatively small percentage of adult women, a few the mothers of some of the younger children and of course the mothers of the two babies. All will have a medical examination starting tomorrow.
The adult women are holding up well. All are distraught to one extent or another but all are functioning well with the children. We met with two groups of the women in private and their distress was quite visible when out of sight of the children. They are all very thankful to Russia for taking the children from harm's way. The evacuees run the gamut from upper middle class to quite poor.
Children are children. They are quite different here than in The West even though some of them try to mimic what they see on TV and the Internet from the west. It is in the eyes of the teenagers, especially the girls, where you can see the worry and fear just below the surface. The teenaged girls are working with the children, relatives or not, alongside of the adult women. The boys, some are worried, most are angry at the events in and around Slavyansk and their inability to do something about them. The boys are, after all, young men and the will to protect their families and their homes is already ingrained in them. There is adequate staff to assist the women with the children and keep the teenagers in line.
It is in the young children, the under 10 year olds, that the innocence yet reality comes through as you talk to them. After all, here is a group of children and teenagers who have seen far more than they should have at their tender ages and suddenly they are in another country in a heavily guarded facility and here are strangers including a foreigner in their midst. Some of the teenagers and younger children speak some English and more than one teenager was quite fluent in English, one so fluent she relieved my wife from translating for a while. Some of the children's comments, through the translators:
"It was hot that night, we had the windows open. The sounds were loud. There was a very loud noise on a car in front of our building. There was hail hitting our flat. There was fire outside, I could see it on the wall. My window was broken. My mother was afraid. My father was angry." 9 year old girl.
"A bomb fell near our flat. It was a small one, not the big ones. The sound is different. I am not afraid of the little ones but cats are afraid. We know when the little ones are coming because the cats run away. We hide when they run away." 7 year old girl.
"My neighbor's dog was killed that night. My neighbor, she cries all the time now. My mother said I have to leave home." 10 year old boy.
She looked at the scars on my arm and touched them, then pulled up my left shirt sleeve and looked. How she knew I don't know, the tattoo is 5cm above blousing level as per regs. "You are foreign." "Yes." "You are soldier." "I was." "Did you come here to kill me?" Asked matter of fact. Mother of God. How do you answer that? "No, I am not here to hurt you, I am here to help you and to keep you safe" in my very poor Russian. 10 year old girl. My teenaged translator dissolved in to tears. The child comforted her.
"I want to kill all those fascist pedarasti. My mother is afraid. My father is fighting. My father said I could not come with him, I don't know why. I am a man." 15 year old boy.
"I miss my boyfriend. He could not come, there was no more room on the bus. He kissed my before I got on the bus, right in front of my mother. I love him. I miss my mother. I want to go home." 14 year old girl.
"I miss my mother. I miss my father. I want to go home. Mother said I can't come home soon." 12 year old girl.
"They killed my neighbor. He was a kind man, he never hurt anyone. I was the first one to him after he fell off his bicycle. There was a lot of blood. He was dead. His wife was screaming. He took me fishing." 15 year old boy.
"It is so quiet here. There is no noise at all. I wish my mother and father were here with me. My mother likes to swim." 6 year old boy.
After we spoke to the women and children we spoke to the administrator. She assured us the children and women had everything they needed. The officer's wife asked about bathing suits for the children and dolls for the young girls.
We then had lunch with the evacuees. Lunch was excellent with plenty of food for the children, as much food, juice and milk as they wanted, fresh baked bread from the kitchen, gallons of tea for the adults. After lunch Father and I went to the only private shop in the facility, down by the beach. It sells bathing suits, shorts, sun tan oil, sun hats and other sundries for the beach. After we looked at the prices Father had a talk with the owner and an understanding was made. The children and women will get what they need for the beach at no charge to them. Father and I will split the bill and the prices will be normal market, not as marked. Father's assistant and the officer's wife will tomorrow get enough dolls for the young girls. All will be identical and will be delivered to the facility before dinner tomorrow by the officer's wife and other officer wives. Father and I will split that bill also along with the officer. I got to watch Father, though. He's pretty quick with a ruble....
When we returned the child who asked if I was there to kill her was my wife's shadow. On seeing me she ran to me. Got me a big hug and a smooch right on the cheek. I looked at my wife, she looked at me and we smiled grimly. If worse comes to worse for this child we will take her. We pray it won't come to that. She cried when we left. I told her we would be back in 2 days to see her and the other children. I asked her if she likes dogs. She said yes.
As of 15:54 today, 01 June 2014, no more evacuees are allowed to leave Slavyansk or Donetsk City. Ukraine Armed Forces have blockaded all the roads and rail lines out of both cities. No one is allowed in or out. There will be not be more children coming to this facility.
Auslander
Translation of the "must read" article of worldcrisis.ru explaining why there is no Russian intervention in the Ukraine
It is with an immense and heartfelt THANK YOU! to "BM" for his translation that I have the real privilege to share with you this translation into English of the excellent article of worldcrisis.ru I mentioned in my previous post. This is, in my opinion, the most complete and well-written analysis of the apparent Russian "passivity" and we all owe "BM" a big debt of gratitude for making it available to us on such short notice. I especially encourage you all to circulate this translation as it is by far the best explanation of the Kremlin's policy.
The Saker
PS: I was also sent a link to this article http://sovietoutpost.revdisk.org/?p=127 with an interesting description of the condition of the Ukrainian army. Also a must read imho.
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Why there is no Russian military intervention in the Ukraine
The level of analytical discussions on the Russian Internet is perfectly described by the political scientist Simon Uralov: "To consider that the Ukrainian crisis set off only the minds of the Kievan colleagues and turned them all into bloodthirsty hysterics is fundamentally mistaken. Among the Moscow colleagues there is also an incredible number of such." The purpose of this material is to take a step back from the hysteria and coldly analyze the situation in Ukraine.
The Saker
PS: I was also sent a link to this article http://sovietoutpost.revdisk.org/?p=127 with an interesting description of the condition of the Ukrainian army. Also a must read imho.
-------
Why there is no Russian military intervention in the Ukraine
Posted
on worldcrisis.ru 30
Май 22:19
опубликовал Сухов боец красной армии [suho]
опубликовал Сухов боец красной армии [suho]
The level of analytical discussions on the Russian Internet is perfectly described by the political scientist Simon Uralov: "To consider that the Ukrainian crisis set off only the minds of the Kievan colleagues and turned them all into bloodthirsty hysterics is fundamentally mistaken. Among the Moscow colleagues there is also an incredible number of such." The purpose of this material is to take a step back from the hysteria and coldly analyze the situation in Ukraine.
I'll start with the necessary clarifications on several emotionally
important topics:
Why is there no Russian military intervention?
If this text was written a few days earlier, a significant part of it
would had to have been devote to explaining why sending troops to
Ukraine was inappropriate and just plain stupid even after the
referendum. Fortunately, the head of the resistance ibn
Slaviansk, Igor Strelkov, coped with this task better than I: in his
video message, he very clearly described the inertness of the local
population of Lugansk and Donetsk in terms of real action to protect
their interests against the junta. Anticipating the arguments
about the referendum, I hasten to say that a check mark on the ballot
is certainly cool, but not much different from any
hipster-white-ribboned (belolentochnyh) attempts "carry
mode" – the “like” on Facebook. Because a "like"
handle made in
the bulletin doesn’t change anything. The referendum was a
necessary but not sufficient action.
How much was the Kremlin prepared for events in Ukraine and how
much does it improvise even now?
I advise you to read the telegram's Wikileaks:
https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html ,
in which it is shown that Kremlin clearly pointed out to the
Americans in 2008 the scenarios that we see today: "Experts tell
us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in
Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian
community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving
violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would
have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want
to have to face."
It is logical to assume that such a development for the Kremlin was
not a surprise and that we are now in even more unpleasant but less
nuanced script that something like "Plan E".
In order to understand what the Kremlin will do next, let’s
formulate objectives:
- Do not allow the entry of Ukraine into NATO.
- Do not allow the establishment and stabilization in Ukraine of a
Russophobic regime, which assumes denazification.
- Do not allow the genocide of Russian South-East population.
Ideally this requires implementation of all three objectives while,
in that interval, not breaking the Russian economy during its
reorientation toward Asia and, at the same time, preventing the
Americans from pulling off their economic ends at the expense of the
EU.
How can these goals be realized?
Let us consider the simplest scenario and see what are the
vulnerabilities and negative consequences:
So, the Russian army enters Ukraine and a few days later comes to
Kiev, then captures all of Ukraine. "Patriots" are
jubilant, there are parades on the Khreschatyk, etc.
It seems that all three goals have been achieved, but the
following problems emerge:
1. In the EU, where the European business elite has slowly
pressed on the feet of their politicians and stamped on the brakes
with regard to sanctions, the "war party" (a/k/a "The
Party of the United States", or rather "Party Pax
Americana») clearly triumphs. Against the Russian Federation, the
maximum of real sanctions cut in with terrifying effect principally
for the European economy themselves, which immediately falls into a
recession. But nothing to rejoice about.
Against this background, the Americans easily force the signing of
their version of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership,
a trade pact, which turns the EU into an appendage of the U.S.
economy. Negotiations about the treaty are going on right now
and, for the Americans, the entry of Russian troops in Ukraine would
be a huge gift. Sanctions against Russia would destroy European
business and trade barriers with the U.S. would finish it. What
we have at the end: EU in a state as if after a war; the United
States, all in white, joyfully absorbing European markets on which
they have not and will not have competitors; the Russian Federation -
not in the best shape. Does it seem to anyone that someone in
this situation is the fool (лох), and that that someone is
clearly not the U.S.? By the way, it is not necessary to take
into account the arguments to the effect that European politicians
would not allow economic suicide. Euro-bureaucrats are not
capable even of this, as practice shows.
2. Besides the fact that the Kremlin will render a service to
Washington, we need to look at what will happen to Russia itself.
• If the sanctions cut against Russia before the gas mega-contract
for 30 years with China is signed, then China will be able to
negotiate a price from a position of strength. In fact, from a
position of blackmail (This shows in China’s comportment, however,
but not clearly).
• If the sanctions are imposed against Russia before the oil
mega-contract with Iran is initialled, through which Rosneft will be
able to control an additional 500,000 barrels of oil per day, Iran
will be able to negotiate a price froma position of strength.
• All subsequent attempts to build something up even to the
delivery of imports we need now, will be very, very expensive.
• If sanctions cut in before the signing of the agreement on the
establishment of the Eurasian Economic Community, imagine what trumps
Lukashenko and Nazarbayev will have to twist Putin’s arms at
negotiations. A little more of this, and Moscow, in order to
create the EurAsEC, will have to pay for its oil.
3. The Russian Federation would have to assume the
responsibility for the restoration of the Ukrainian economy and
denazification: where to get the needed number of “denazifiers”
in “dusty helmets” (if anyone has forgotten, according to
Okudzhava, it was the commissars in dusty helmets that bent over the
dead hero of the Civil War) to fight compact groups of Ukrainian
Nazis, which will enjoy support and supply from abroad. On
aggregate, it is clear that this scenario greatly benefits the United
States and China. Russia remains a deep sense of moral
satisfaction, economic issues and future curses of the “generous”
(щирых) Ukrainians who are unhappy with "life under
occupation."
How are the key points in time our vulnerabilities laid out?
1. Gas contract with China - May-June (May 21 signed!)
2. Oil contract with Iran in summer (That's why the U.S. lifted
the embargo, as Rosneft is very tightly seated under BP and not very
under Exxon Mobil. Where does the oil flows? To China).
3. Important! Elections to the European Parliament, which
will get a lot of votes Eurosceptic allies of Russia. After the
election, will be assembled Evrokommissii different composition which
will be much easier to work with - May 25. Even more
important! Gas contract signed with China, newly elected
deputies will be more amenable to South Stream.
4. Collection of all relevant documents/permits/etc., for
construction of South Stream - May.
This is what is visible to the naked eye, but there are other aspects
that are very important, but which are difficult to place clearly on
a timetable:
1. Transition to settlements in rubles for energy. Oil and
gas are not potatoes: they (are provided under) long-term contracts
that cannot be altered unilaterally but require lengthy work to
replace them with new ones, plus the change in current ones.
2. Transition to quoting prices in rubles for energy (for
trading in rubles) on the Russian markets - it is absolutely hellish
work though, if only because up until now no one has ever done
anything like it.
3. Own payment system
4. Preparation of import substitution or improvement of our work
with Asian suppliers (not in emergency mode).
The list can and should continue, that's what I see, and the Kremlin
is much broader horizons.
Now add interesting initiatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry,
which is not sitting idly by with its hands folded. For example,
Vice Minister Karasin was in Doha on May 6 and met with all the
Qatari elite. The results, in my opinion, turned out to be
shocking. According to the Foreign Ministry, the Qatari emir
said that he appreciates the "convincing and coherent regional
policy of the Russian Federation", which is very unexpected for
a country that is not just a U.S. ally and the political branch of
Exxon Mobil in the Middle East and a 100% opponent of the Russian
Federation in Syria. But the casket (ларчик) has
simply opened: the fact is that American dreams of filling the whole
world with cheap gas are a death sentence for Qatar and its
elite. Without ultra-high gas prices, Qatar does not just lose
any hope for regional greatness, but becomes a corpse. Doha
focuses quickly and begins to offer something of interest: "At
the same time, emphasis was placed on accelerating the coordination
of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (GECF)", the next summit
of which (that's a coincidence!) will be held in Qatar. The
Forum of Gas Exporting Countries is an organization which includes
countries such as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia and other
exporters, and which the Kremlin, for a long time but without
success, the Kremlin tried to turn into the gas analogue of OPEC. It
is possible that now is the right hour for a potential gas
cartel. First, the three major gas exporter: Russia, Qatar and
Iran have very similar interests and should be able to work on the
same side in order to share and "take over the gills" of
the LNG market and pipeline gas market. Such a gas cartel, even
in a reduced format (only the Russian Federation, Qatar, Iran) will
control at least 55% of the world's gas reserves and have significant
opportunities to strongly influence the energy markets of the EU and
Asia. Of course, such a project would involve a lot of problems
and it will meet opposition, no one gives a guarantee that everything
will work, but it is important to see that Moscow is actively seeking
opportunities for more strategic advantages in the fight against the
United States.
Hopefully it is now clear on what the Kremlin is spending time, which
it is trying to win out of the Ukrainian situation, and why it
matters.
Let’s return to problems directly related to Ukraine and note that
even the implementation of all the important foreign policy projects
will not help in carrying out the denazification of Kiev and make it
so that Russian troops or rebel army of Novorossia would by greeted
with bread and salt even in the central region. If the army of
Novorossia has problems with mobilization in Lugansk and Donetsk,
then work within the zombified regions will be very, very
difficult. However, it seems that on the side of the Russian
Federation on the field of battle will soon appear Colonel Hunger and
the Special Forces Giperok ("Hyperinflation"), which will
dramatically change the balance of power.
The Ukrainian economy is finished. Given the disastrous spring
sowings, the crops of vegetables destroyed (frozen), lack of credit,
problems with gas, the jump in fuel prices, we can safely say that
the economy will come as a northern beast, which will be full and
fluffy. No one will give money to the junta, not even from the
IMF, which promised something around $17 billion (exactly 50% of what
Ukraine needs for this year), but built into the contract an "escape
clause": if Kiev does not control all the regions, then Kiev is
not to receive a cent. Hunger, cold and hyperinflation (caused
by the collapse of the hryvnia) will actively work to weaken
the junta and correct the minds of the “generous” (shchirykh)
Ukrainians: they will surely not come to love Russia, but this is
hardly necessary. It is necessary that they begin to remember the
Yanukovych period as sweet, unattainable dream. The inevitable
chaos and total collapse of social structures, coupled with low
intensity civil war guarantees that NATO will not accept Ukraine
since Europe will then itself "be on the rails", and even
in the U.S., more or less moderate politicians will not make a move,
which obviously would not lead to U.S. victory, but to the dragging
of the country into a nuclear war.
Moreover, in the context of total economic collapse, for the miners,
metal workers and other comrades who are now firmly glued to their
jobs for fear of losing them and hoping to "ride it all in their
huts on the edge (of the precipice)", there will no longer be
such a possibility. They will have to participate in one form or another, in the political and economic problems of New Russia. And likely they will have to participate in arms.
At the same time, the-junta-named-Poroshenko, foisted (on the
country) by the European Union, will have a strong incentive to
negotiate with Moscow to make concessions, to offer
compromises. Already, the new European Commission, which needs
peace in the east and stable gas transit, will be pushing Poroshenko
in this direction. Poroshenko will also be pushed in the same
direction by social upheavals caused by Colonel Hunger and
Hyperinflation the Saboteur.
All these factors, in sum, open up great opportunities for the
Kremlin to reformat the former Ukraine into something appropriate to
the interests of the Russian Federation. It is precisely this
scenario that the United States is attempting to avoid, and it is
because of this that the United States has serious reasons to
accelerate the translation of the conflict into a hot phase with the
use of troops and massive bloodshed.
If you add up the time that is needed for the action of Hunger and
the time required to resolve foreign policy problems in terms of
establishing work with China, Iran, untethering from the dollar,
import substitution, etc. (very roughly) can come to the conclusion
that you need somewhere 5-9 months (that same December, for which
Yanukovych tried to negotiate) to provide solutions to Ukrainian and
other issues to the maximum advantage of Russia. During this
period, you must provide at least for the preservation of Ukraine in
a state of civil war (i.e., support for the DNR, LNR, but it is not
necessary to take Kiev too fast in order not to create unnecessary
additional problems) and ideally, combined with the civil war,
prolonged and sticky negotiations within Ukraine, with the
participation of international observers, something like 2 +4 format,
i.e., Poroshenko + Tsarev + Russia, EU, OSCE,
USA.
The final touch. In recent months, the U.S. has slowed down the
work of its printing press, reducing the "pump-priming"
(this especially simplifies the formulation) from 85 to 55 billion
dollars a month. Very many expect
(e.g. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/27/us-usa-fed-idUSBREA3Q08920140427),
that the machine will turn off completely by the end of this
year. Again, in that same December. This is due to the fact
that the dollar, though it is the main international currency, cannot
be printed endlessly - it is impossible. According to various
estimates, the United States has almost entirely used up the
"resource strength" of the dollar, which allowed them to do
the naughty with the (financial) machine. Moreover, the
corollary and inevitable effect of such tricks is reducing rates on
U.S. bonds, which, on the one hand, helps Washington to pay less for
its debts, but, on the other hand, is actually choking the entire
U.S. pension and insurance system that is built on the expectation of
very different returns from their portfolios bonds. Roughly
speaking, by the end of the year, the U.S. will have a choice between
to blowing up their social system in order to keep on printing, or
greatly reducing their appetites in order to preserve any chance of
stability at home. Judging by the reduction in the amount of
dollars being thrown into the system, Washington has decided that
preventing an explosion is more important than its foreign policy
ambitions.
Now to complete the puzzle finally, let’s make our predictions:
- America will try by all means to aggravate the crisis in Ukraine,
in order to weaken Russia and put the whole European market under its
sway before it needs to shut down its printing presses.
- The Kremlin will try to translate the crisis in Ukraine from the
acute to the chronic phase - civil war plus sluggish negotiations
amid the economic collapse of Ukraine. At the same time, the
Kremlin will use the time to create favorable conditions for the
transition to the sharp confrontation with the United States - from
the work on untethering from the dollar with China, Iran, Qatar,
creating the EEC etc.
- Complete end to the crisis in December 2014, possibly earlier if
U.S. desists from trying to exacerbate the hostilities.
- And if it does not desist? - Then ... a big war ... a war for
resources, because shale "boom" was an ordinary
bubble.
On this subject in detail in the article by William Engdahl
"Washington shale boom - bust". Original Washington's
Shale Boom Going
Bust http://journal-neo.org/2014/05/12/washington-s-shale-boom-going-bust/
END
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