Friday, April 4, 2014

Replies to some comments to my post about Europe and Russia

First, thanks a lot for the very interesting comments you posted in response to my post about Russian-European relations.  Since I did not want to put up with the (silly) length limitations in the comments section, I decided to reply to a few your comments in a separate post.  Sorry I cannot reply to all of them, so I had to pick:

Here we go:

Anonymous wroteactually europe ahs bene infiltrated and destroyed by the english spies who made sure after deloreans departure that british agents be placed inside most policy making part of european commission.
eurpoe is rotten today because of english scumbags.itis not american slave but english slave.

Reply: Sadly, there is much truth to this.  The British policy towards Europe is directly dictated by geography.  Britain, being a seapower, is only safe when Europe is either suffering from internal divisions and wars or when Europe is weak or, even better, under US domination.  A united and peaceful Europe would be a huge threat to the British Empire.  At least this was true until 1945 when the world entered a new, global, stage in which the USA, another seapower, needs to keep the Eurasian landmass and most of the world, really, either in a state of chaos or under its domination.  A lot of US strategic thinking is still influenced by A.T. Mahan and Halford Mackinder.

Augustin L. wrote: The question facing much of Russia's elites is can the eurasian camp institutionalize and win against the liberals who are roaming the halls of the Kremlin ? Segundo, to win the coming struggle on the world stage Russia needs to clearly articulate an economic, cultural and political worldview with broad appeal such as: respect of private property (curbing of monopolies and oligarchy), an emphasis on physical economy and large scale infrastructure projects as opposed to the financialization of the west, a repudiation of excessive usury, free speech (without the liberal excesses of the pussy riot types), A real dialogue of civilization opposed to the zionist fuelled clash. Such a program formalized and backed with a muscular diplomacy aimed at the non aligned world should get Russia a long way. Saker what say you ?

Reply: I say that I agree. For one thing, Russia still does not really know what it stands for.  Yes, some general principles such as social justice and solidarity, support for international law in a multi-polar system, individual private property rights, a regulated market economy, sovereignization, etc.  But these are general principles, not a cohesive cultural or civilizational project (I wrote about that here and here).  Orthodox Christianity is the core spiritual, civilizational and cultural model only for a small minority of Russians, the vast majority are still only very superficially religious and very ignorant of what true Orthodox Christianity is.  Islam is becoming more active, but its adherents are also a minority.  So the fact is that Russia today stands much more against something than for something.  Many Russians today discuss the issue that "Russia has to develop a national idea" but nobody can agree on what should form the basis for this idea.  My personal belief is that the real Russia can be found in the history of Russia before the 18th century and that none of what came later was truly Russian in its ethos and roots. But looking back to pre 18th century Russia is not something most Russians are willing to consider so that is a nonstarter, at least at this point in time.  The 21st century Russia is neither the pre-1917 Russia nor the Soviet Russia.  Nor is it the pre 18th century one.  So the modern Russia really has no roots of its own, just a strong but vague sense of what it does not want to be (Soviet or Anglo).  I don't have a solution to offer here, my own family and cultural roots go back to the old Russia of before Peter I and I have no idea how one can be Russian without such roots.  And yet, Italy is neither Rome or the Italy of the Papal States, but it still exists.  And France is not the France of the Capetians or of Louis XIV, but it also still exists.  Russia today must reinvent itself as best can be and find some type of new national vision because a country without such a spiritual and cultural identity is like a body without an immune system: it is susceptible to any virus or bacteria which it comes in contact with.

Fool on the Hill wrote: When you start looking at the lives of others you begin to notice, not the obvious ethno-cultural divides or geopolitical divides, but rather the class and economic disparities, i.e ., the 99 vs 1 per centers, which cut across Christian, Jew, Muslim, Hindu, et al. as well as across countries. 

Reply: I absolutely agree.  I came to the conclusion that if there is one idea which all of mankind has to urgently rediscover is the idea of class politics.  One of the best tricks played against the rest of us by the 1%ers was to describe the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 as some kind of proof that Marx was wrong and all of Marxism useless.  That was truly a huge mistake.  There is a lot in the Marxist critique of capitalism which has never been disproved or even seriously challenged.  Sure Marx and Marxism can be wrong on this or that point, but dismissing it all is like dismissing Newtonian physics on the ground that Einsteinian or quantum physics superseded them when, in fact, Einstein and Plank were both very much standing on the shoulders of Newton.  What our society has done is, to use my comparison, to dismiss all of Newton's theories and replace them by some kind of hocus-pocus called "free market capitalism".  I would personally argue that class theory is at least as relevant today as it was in the late 19th century or, really, even more.  All of the modern world is now directly shaped by the 1%ers who rule the world while the rest of us sit deaf, blind and dumb - unable to even conceptualize a 1%-ruled social order because we were brainwashed into dismissing all of Marxism.  And even though I do not consider myself a Marxist at all, I am absolutely sure that we will never make any progress towards the liberation of the 99% until we fully turn around and rehabilitate Marxist political theory as an indispensable tool to understand much, but not all, of history and politics.  There is, indeed, much nonsense in Marxism which needs to be dumped, but there are also much very important and even critically important elements in Marxism which must imperatively be studied and remembered.

Alexis TK27 wrote: Britain is content to host Russian oligarchs, France is content to build Navy ships for Russia, Germany is content to buy Russian gas and oil.  In short, European leaders are much wiser in deeds, than they are in words

Reply: Sorry, but I cannot accept that argument. Why does the UK host Russian oligarchs?  Because it wants their money (and hopes to use them against Russia).  Why is France building the Mistrals for Russia?  Because it wants Russian money.  Why is Germany buying Russian gas - because it needs it and has no other option.  In all these cases these countries are move by basic self-interest, not because European leaders are wiser in deeds.  Furthermore, in international relations words are deeds - that is to say that the never ending flow of hostile statements coming from the EU is, in itself, a very important deed.

Alexis TK27 wrote: links of Russia with Europe - or should I come out of the closet now and say: with the rest of Europe? ;-) - go much farther and are far deeper than the mere geographical (examples of geography, economy, culture, language, etc,)

Reply:  I am not denying any of that.  All I am saying is that regardless of this past, the future of Russia cannot be tied to a continent and society which is in clear decay and, frankly, slowly dying.  Sooner or later, a new Europe, not the one of EU and its Masonic sponsors will appear, and then it will be appropriate to reconsider it all, but for the foreseeable future Europe has basically rendered itself irrelevant, unattractive and useless.  If an "Europe des Patries" rises one day from the ruins of the EU, then this might all change again.

SileSlav wrote: What about 18ht cent. when disgusting and shameful division/conquer of Poland/Lithuania between Austro_Hungary, Prusia and car-ruling Russia took place. What about Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania conquested in the 30th of XXc, what happen in summer 1920 when bolshevics attacted Poland and being defeated and did it once again backstabbed Poles in Sept.17th 1939 togheter w/that time Stalin's big-buddy A.Hitler? What Russia is still doing in Kaliningrad oblast, is it historic part of Russia, no, never was. That's what U said not once attacked West? Well, where acc. to You E-W Europe division line is? Oder river? or maybe Vistula, better yet eastwards up to Dniepr riv

Reply: Poland? Lithuania?  You got to be kidding me!  You might have mentioned the disgusting invasion of France in 1813 or the revolting invasion of Germany in 1945.  If there is one country on earth which truly deserved to be invaded by Russia it is Poland with is centuries long warfare against Orthodox Christians and its repeated attempts to subjugate Russia.  Ditto for Lithuania.  As for Latvia and Estonia - they never even existed as countries, so what are you talking about?!  Russian wars against the Hanseatic League, the Swedes or the Livonian Confederation?  But none of them were "Latvian" or "Estonian".  As for the Bolsheviks attacking the Poles - did you ever ask yourself what the said Poles were doing in the Ukraine during the civil war?  As for Hitler and Stalin being big-buddy - this was never an alliance but a non-aggression treaty which Stalin managed to secure from Hitler before Britain (which was also negotiating) did and which gave Stalin time to prepare for war.  Your post is typical of the kind of absolute nonsense which East Europeans who should not history post because they have been completely indoctrinated and brainwashed in the role of "eternal victims of those bad bad Russian imperialists".  Let me promise you this: the next time Poland attacks Russia (with out without NATO), expect Russians to shamefully conquer Poland again :-P  If Russian tanks made it to Berlin - they can also make it to Mons, if needed.

E. wrote: Russia's elites have been trying to shift the country Westwards for hundreds of years (since at least the Raskol in the 1650s, whereupon the znamenny chant was forgotten - and even more strongly since Peter I, when the capital was moved to the Western edge of the country). This couldn't fail to have an effect. The strongest effect perhaps (at least for me, as this is my field of study) is that the greatest artistic works of Russia all take after Western European forms, rather than Central Asian or Chinese ones.

Reply: This is very true, but I would suggest that while the Russian elites were most definitely trying to imitate Western art, it would not be a solution to switch this behavior around and imitate Chinese or Central Asian art.  Russian iconography, architecture or music have been influenced by many external sources of inspiration, and that is how it should be, but they definitely had their own identity.  Compare Znamenny chant to Byzantine chant and you immediately see that.  Or compare Church of the Intercession on the Nerl to Greek or Italian churches and the same will strike you.  Russia is most definitely at the intersection of Asia and Europe and the choice is not "either - or" but a mix and adaptation of (hopefully) the best of both.

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One more important thing I think I should mention here:

This discussing made me realize that I forgot to mention what is probably the most important question of all: where did Russia come from?  What *is* Russia, really?

I submit that Russia was born of three different "parents":

1) Rus: The old Slavic/Viking nations which lived in what is called "The Ukraine" today.
2) Byzantium: The conversion of these nations to Orthodox Christianity in the late 10th century
3) The Mongol "Orda": The so-called "Tatar Yoke" (roughly 13th through 15th century)

My daughter likes to say that "we are a mix of Vikings and Mongols who became Christians" and she is right.  These three elements have mixed together to produce the Russian nation, culture, ethos and civilization.  To some, this is a dreadful mix, and I can actually fully understand that, especially coming from a West European.  I would also argue that of the three "parents" the least influential was the old Rus and the most influential was Byzantium, with the Mongol Orda in the middle.  That was true until the 18th century when all this was overturned by the Russian elites who felt a "Drang nach Westen" mostly due to their own ethnic roots.  Modern Russia has only kept a superficial connection to these original "parents" and is now wondering what its place in the world should be.  In many ways, 21st century Russia is now re-starting from a tabula rasa which makes past history maybe not irrelevant (definitely not), but at least not decisive any more. 

Putin and his Eurasian Sovereignists are now in a position to make virtue out of necessity and direct Russia in almost any direction they want without having to struggle against an overwhelmingly powerful historical momentum.  At a time when the AngloZionist Empire is absolutely determined to engage in a full-spectrum confrontation against Russia and when Europe has turned into a silent and submissive US protectorate, there is simply nothing attractive for Russia in its "western partners".  The West can be either a threat to deal with, or a source of economic exchanges.  That's about it.  The rest of the Eurasian landmass has so much more to offer in every conceivable aspect that the choice for Russia is, I think, rather obvious.

Kind regards to all,

The Saker

Personal announcement: Should something bad happen

After the weird service interruption today, I have decided to take some precautionary emergency measures.  Should something really bad suddenly happen to this blog, for whatever reasons, I will continue blogging at the following address:

http://thesaker.ucoz.com/blog (please write this down somewhere)

also,

I cannot imagine having both my blog and my email address shot at the same time but, just in case, I have this backup email address now:

vineyardsaker@mail.ru (please write this down somewhere)

Both of these services (ucoz.com and mail.ru) are hosted in Russia and appear to be taking security very seriously.  I hope that this will provide us all with some redundancy.

In the coming days and weeks, I will try to give some halfway decent appearance to the backup blog at ucoz.com, but its basic functionality is already working, including comments.

I am still looking for a good blog mirroring option, but in the meantime we now have something to fall back on should a sudden long term "outage" or "service interruption" happen.  Better safe than sorry.

Sorry for these headaches, but I think I should heed the numerous warnings I am getting from friends and readers.

Many thanks and kind regards,

The Saker

Something weird just happened to this blog (UPDATED)

Several of you have reported to me that this blog has been taken off-line.  I had no access to it for about 15 minutes.  I have just removed links to the movie I mentioned in my previous post to make sure they are not the cause of this.  From my end everything appears to be in order now.

Can you please confirm to me that this blog is visible to you all, especially those who wrote to let me know that there was a problem.

Thank you very much and sorry about this!

The Saker
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UPDATE: everybody is reporting the blog back online, and I see no problems on my end.  Still, this scared me and I think that I should probably considering mirroring this blog somewhere else.  If anybody has any ideas/suggestions they would be warmly welcomed!

Thanks to all for your concern and reporting, kind regards,

The Saker

Thursday, April 3, 2014

The painful issue of today's Europe - what are Russia's options?

I think that it is time for me to directly address the issue of today's Europe role in world affairs.  In this blog I have often voiced very harsh criticisms of both "old Europe" and "new Europe" - to use Rumsfeld's classification - but I have never addressed this issue head-on, and this is what I propose to do now.

Let me begin by a little disclaimer and say that while I am ethnically and culturally Russian, I was born in the heart of Western Europe from in a family of refugees.  I spent most of my life in Europe, and I have become especially close to what I call my "2nd homeland" - the northern Mediterranean from Spain to Greece (which I consider as one coherent - if diverse - cultural zone).  So for all my criticisms of Europe, part of me is most definitely European.  Furthermore, and regular readers of this blog know that, I have spent a good part of my life in an absolute opposition to the Soviet regime and then the AngloZionist colonial regime of Eltsin which followed it.  So while I am ethnically and culturally Russian, I am hardly an automatic supporter of everything "Russian".  In fact, I repeatedly have to pinch myself to check if I am dreaming every time I say something positive about the Kremlin or Putin (who is, after all, an ex-KGB officer).  I am so used to be disgusted, outraged and even ashamed by everything which comes out of the Kremlin that, if anything, I have to struggle with my kneejerk suspicion, if not hostility, towards anything "Kremlin".  And yet, here I am, in 2014, a longtime Cold War participant (on many levels - private, corporate and even professional) catching myself in the undeniable fact that I am becoming a "Putin groupie".  I can hardly convey how weird this still feels to me.

I wanted to begin by clarifying all this because what I will write next I do not write as "a Russian bashing Europe" but as a European disgusted with his own birthplace.  So here we go:

First, for all its rights and wrongs, and even though we have been more or less a US colony since 1945, I still believe that Western Europe was the "good guy" during the Cold War.  Yes, I know, Churchill and the rest of the Anglosphere created that Cold War much more than the Soviets and, yes, the Soviets were not nearly as bad as our propaganda said, nor were we nearly as good as we fancied ourselves to be.  And yet, Europe, Western Europe was a continent, a society, which was free, especially compared to Eastern Europe.  Anyone doubting this today should watch the beautiful German movie "Das Leben der Anderen" ("The lives of the others") of director Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck (preferable in the original German language - with subtitles if needed).  Here are a few links to this remarkable movie:


SORRY - I HAD TO REMOVE THESE LINKS AS I DID NOT WANT TROUBLE WITH BLOGGER.  YOU WILL HAVE TO LOOK FOR THIS MOVIE BY YOURSELF
THE SAKER

This movie shows, without any exaggerations, what life was like in the last years of the former GDR and I think that for those who might be tempted to forget what daily life was under Soviet rule, this is a very good refresher.

I feel that I want to mention this because I then felt - and still do today - that in those years one could be if not proud, then maybe at least grateful to live in a society which was comparatively wealthy and comparatively free.

This being said, anybody with a little bit of political maturity understood that if Eastern Europe was occupied and controlled by the Soviets, Western Europe was occupied and controlled by the USA.  So most of us, at least as I recall, were dreaming for the day when the Cold War would finally be over (it was not pleasant at all to live with a bullseye painted on your head) and when both the USSR and the USA would pack and finally go home.  For simple and basic reasons of geography, we all understood that we could built a "fortress Europe" which would be basically immune from any outside military attack, probably for the first time in European history.  If NATO and the WTO (yes, it was called the "Warsaw Treaty Organization" and not the Warsaw "Pact" - that is a US propaganda term) would dissolve and the USA and the USSR would leave a united Europe would be simply unconquerable from the outside.  As for notion of another internal European war - my generation (I am 50 now) found it utterly ridiculous and basically unthinkable: would the Netherlands invade Belgium?  Or France invade Spain?  As for the East Europeans, we simply assumed (mistakenly as it turned out) that after decades of rather heavy Soviet occupation they would yearn for peace and freedom as much as we did.

Then the Wall came down, Gorbachev betrayed his own country and Party, three Commie non-entities (Eltsin, Kravchuk and Shushkevich) destroyed the Soviet Union against the will of most of its people, and the previously demure and peace-loving West suddenly became overwhelmed with a new messianic mission: to conquer the eastern "Lebensraum" for NATO and the EU.  As for the newly "freed" East Europeans, instead of finally enjoying some true freedom, they all decided that the highest they can hope for is to be colonized by the USA and NATO, lest those dangerous Russians show up again.  I will come back to the West Europeans later, but let me say this about East Europeans here:

How did they forget this basic fact of history: Russia has never attacked the West.  Not once.  Unless, of course, you consider a counter-attack as a form of attack.  The historical truth is that it is the West which attacked Russia over and over and over and over again.  This is why there was a Crimean war with Russia and not, say, a "Corsican War".  Yes, Russia did counter-attack each time and, yes, Russian soldiers did end up camping on the Champs Elysees or under Brandenburg Gate, but this hardly happened because of some mysterious "Russian imperialism".  Sure, I will be the first to agree that 19th Russia had no business keeping western monarchs in power or chewing up Finland or Poland, but in all these instances you will see that what triggered these (nevertheless unjustifiable) interventions was a (mistaken) sense of assisting the legitimate rulers of Europe.  Not saying it's right (it's not!).  I am just saying that when the West invaded Russia it hardly had as a motive to assist the legitimate authorities.  I would never blame the Chechens or the Persians for being fearful of Russia, but the Poles or Balts (who more than anybody tried to occupy, subjugate and partition Russia)?  The Germans or French?  Maybe the Brits or the Hungarians (who sure had their own little Empire going!)?  This is beyond ridiculous...

And yet the East Europeans were so terrified of Russia that they decided to replace one occupation by another.  Forgive me if I have no respect whatsoever for that kind of paranoia, ignorance of history or simply crass russophobia.

As for the West Europeans, probably motivated by their own inferiority complex (well, after all, Europe never freed itself from Hitler - it was freed by others!) and definitely egged on by the Anglosphere, they decided not only to turn what could have been a "Europe of fatherland" (as de Gaulle wanted) into a faceless meltingpot run by unelected EU bureaucrats but they also engaged in an "admission spree" for both the EU and NATO, sure as they were that "the more the better" which, of course, made both NATO and the EU much worse of than it was before.

So now we have the worst of "old Europe" mixed with the worst of "new Europe" and all of that ruled by the Anglosphere which, itself, has now been largely taken over by Zionists interests.  I don't know about you, but to me this so-called "united Europe" inspires only disgust and contempt.  Especially that this was far from inevitable.

If Europe had taken the example of its own great leaders, people like de Gaulle or even Mitterrand, it would never have accepted the subservient role it now has in the AngloZionist Empire.  One does not need to be wealthy or powerful to keep his dignity and self-esteem. So I categorically reject the argument that under the AngloZionist Empire the Europeans "could do nothing about it".

Excuse me, but if Berlin could rise up in 1953, Hungary could rise up in 1956, Czechoslovakia could rise up in 1968 and Poland could rise up in 1980, I don't see how you can make the case that today this is impossible.  Even inside the Soviet Union there were numerous uprisings (Temirtau 1959, Murom 1961, Aleksandrov 1961, Krasnodar 1961, Novocherkassk 1962 - heck there were even uprisings inside the GULag,  as in Ekibastuz in 1952).  I would even argue that the real length of the Civil War which followed the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution was from 1917 until 1946, when the country was finally and truly pacified by the Communist leaders.  So there was plenty of resistance to the Soviet regime.

But maybe good old uprisings are now "passé"?  Okay - fair enough.  But what prevents the people from, say, Poland, Germany or Bulgaria from following the example of Alain Soral in France and create their own version of Egalité et Réconciliation or, at least, the French National Front?!  Nothing, of course.

I do see some signs of a growing revolt:  George Galloway and Nigel Farage in the UK or Laurent Louis in Belgium are clearly beginning to show signs of doing more than opposing this or that policy - they are opposing the system itself.  In France, Marine Le Pen unfortunately clearly turned out to be a "dud", but Florian Philippot (currently in charge of strategy and communications) shows some potential.  The big problem with these, shall we say, "sovereignist" parties is that they are still mostly stuck in a "conservative" or even outright reactionary position (though not Galloway!).  What Europe completely lacks is a solid "sovereignist Left" similar to what the French Communists almost became in the late years of Georges Marchais.

[Sidenote: The Europeans seem to have forgotten that capitalism is not a European tradition, but an Anglo ideology.  They have forgotten that while the north of Europe fell under the influence of Reformed/Protestant Christianity with its emphasis on individual predestination and work, the culture and traditions of rest of Europe were shaped by Latin Christianity, with a much deeper sense of social justice, equality and community.  Alain Soral is quite correct when he speaks of an "Old Testament world" which now blends Reformed/Protestant ideology on one side and the rabbinical Phariseic Judaic ideology on the other.  It is no coincidence that we live in an AngloZionist Empire and not a, say, FrancoZionist or HispanoZionist one.]

When France had the Trente Glorieuses (30 glorious years of happiness) it was because de Gaulle knew how to balance both economic progress and social welfare rather than subjugate the entire country to Big Banks (which Pompidou did as soon as he came to power).  Even the UK had a semblance of social solidarity inherited from the difficult war years.

But now, what do we see?

Most European economies are undergoing a deep crisis.  I am not talking only about Greece or Cyprus here, I am talking about France, Spain, but also the Baltic States, Bulgaria and Ireland.  Socially, Western Europe has simply added East European immigrants to its already massive amount of immigrants from Africa and the Balkans.  It takes a blind person not to see that the EU is taking water from all sides and is basically sinking.  And it is under such conditions that the EU now gets involved in the Ukrainian mess, as if it did not have enough problems without having a bona fide Nazi regime on its doorstep and yet another tsunami of economic immigrants about to join the Romanians, Latvians, Gypsies, Turks, Algerians, Kurds, Iraqis, Africans, Georgians or Albanians already sinking the European boat.

Seriously, how stupid and how blind can on become?!

As for NATO itself, it is a pathetic fighting force.  This is rarely said openly, but everybody in the military knows that.  And that is not a problem at all, because NATO's *true* role is to maintain the US grip on the European continent.  There is nothing new here, as early as in 1949 the first NATO Secretary General, Lord Ismay,  admitted that NATO's true role was "to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down".  Now this has changed to only "the Americans in, and everybody else down".  Hardly a sign of progress.  NATO also has a secondary role, to be used by European bureaucrats to foster their career and their power.  So really the core purpose of NATO is to be NATO.  And if that means inventing a non-existing threat such as Iranian missiles or "massed Russian forces at the Ukrainian border" - then so be it.

[Does anybody remember that NATO once seriously declared that Yugoslav MiG-29s could pose a threat to London (I cannot prove that, but I remember that hilarious claim vividly - the MiG-29 is a light and short-range fighter)?]

Truly, the new Cold War with Russia in Europe has exactly the same function as the Global War on terror worldwide and the War on Drugs inside the USA: to terrify the general public and to justify lavish spending for full-spectrum aggression on everybody, from the average American (War on Drugs), Russia or even Papua New Guinea (GWOT!).

Everybody in Europe knows and understand most of the above.  Many, in fact, understand it all.  And yet nobody does anything about it.  Nothing.  It's like the entire continent is in some kind of catatonic stupor.  Hence the absolutely disgraceful European vote recently at the UN when every single country in Europe (even Greece!!) voted in favor of the Banderastani regime in Kiev with the sole exception of Serbia (Bosnia-Herzegovina happened to have a Serbian president and Belarus is, for all practical purposes, not only part of Russia, but also threatened by the Ukie Nazis)!  And did anybody in Europe protest against this?

How can Europeans make fun of the putative ignorance of history and geography of Americans when they themselves act in a manner so clearly in contradiction with even a basic understanding of these matters?!

Tell me, my fellow Europeans, if Americans are really so ignorant, then how is it that they are running the show in Europe?  How is it that we are their colony and not the other way around?  Might that have something to do with the fact that when they were our colony they rebelled and kicked us out while we seem unable to return them the favor?!

And if Europeans lack the courage of Americans, why can't they at least speak up and protest, you know, like Soviet dissidents did?  Like Alain Soral does today?

To me the answer is sadly obvious: Europeans have lost any sense of self-worth or dignity.  They have become what Malcolm X used to call "house Negroes".  Listen to Malcolm X himself speak about this, listen carefully, and ask yourself this basic question: is there a single word spoken by X here, just one, which does not fully apply to modern Europeans?  Just one?


Don't Europeans treat their AngloZionists masters *exactly* like the "house Negro" treated his masters?

So my question is this: where are the European "field Negroes"?

So yes, I am disgusted with Europe and its politicians.  And I am disgusted with the deafening silence of the my fellow Europeans.  I find no excuse for it.  If African slaves could rise up against their masters, how is it that Europeans seem to have this special fondness for their current overlords?

There is one final question I need to address here: what about Russia?  Is it part of Europe?

I did write about the history of Russia in past posts (see here, here and here) and I cannot repeat it all here.  I will say that the only part of the Russian society which has had a deep attraction for western Europe has always been either the reactionary nobility or the liberal elites. For the vast majority of Russian people, even today, the people of the Caucasus or Central Asia are far closer culturally than western Europeans and their central European friends.  The only exception to this are the Serbian people who have always been close to Russians (the Russian Tsar Alexander III once said to the Montenegrin Prince Nicholas he was "the only true, faithful and sincere ally Russia had in Europe".  Little has changed since).  But for the rest of Europe?  Forget it.

Are there still "wannabe Europeans" in Russia? Sure!  First, the group which I call "Atlantic Integrationists".  Then the eternal bane of Russia: its liberals.  Then most oligarchs (they love capitalism).  Finally, the same kind of folks as we see in the Ukraine today: those who associate Europe with a high standard of living and halfway decent cops.  Toss in a hodgepodge of homosexuals dreaming of living in Holland, potheads (also dreaming of Amsterdam), the many admirers of European architecture, entrepreneurs who are fed up with the dysfunctional and corrupt Russian legal system, members of West European branches of Christianity and a few others groups and you definitely get a pro-European constituency in Russia.  But ask yourself - what do most of these groups and people have in common?  What did reactionary aristocrats and liberal revolutionaries also have in common?  The answer is simple: they simply don't like Russia.  Oh sure, they will deny that, but if you dig just a tad deeper you will see that they like "a Russia" which never existed and which they aspire to bring about.  But they never liked the real Russia, the only one which really exists.  This simple truth - that these liberal "reformers" actually always hate the real Russia - is one truism with many Russian intellectuals and leaders have repeated many times, from Dostoevsky, to Solzhenitsyn to Putin today.  And over and over again, people like Dostoevsky, Solzhenitsyn and Putin are the type of people which inspired the Russian masses to support them, because these masses always felt, almost instinctively, that pro-Western folks are always deeply alienated from them while leaders like Putin are true Russians who love Russia for what it is, not what it should be.

This being said, history and geography have linked Russia to Europe and in that sense, Russia will always be part of Europe.  This is what Putin - and others - mean when they say that Russia will always be part of Europe: they mean that because Europe has had a huge, and sometimes even positive, impact on Russia and because it is simply impossible to build a real "Iron Curtain" which would exclude Russia from the future of Europe.  There are many in central Europe - Poles in particular - who would deny their own eastern and Slavic roots and who would love to see a huge wall cutting Poland forever off its eastern neighbors.  I suppose that if these folks had magical scissors they would simply cut out Poland and move it to, say, southern France (there is a myth that France and Poland are particularly close whereas in reality the only thing binding these two countries together are their Masonic loges).  Ditto for the Balts who would gladly move to somewhere along the Norwegian border.  So when Putin says that "Russia will always be a part of Europe" he is trying to remind these folks that magic scissors do not exist and that no matter what, Russia will have influence and say in the future of Europe.  I am sure that Dostoevsky and Solzhenitsyn would agree.

But it is one thing to be aware of history and geography and quite another to make fundamental civilizational and development decisions.  The "Eurasian Sovereignists" are not dreaming of magic scissors to relocate Russia to the South Pacific or the Indian subcontinent, they simply believe that Russia has to invest its energy and efforts towards developing the immense human and natural resources of the Russian East and North and that for historical, cultural and religious reasons Russia can find much better friends and allies in Asia than in Europe.  I have to say that I completely agree with this vision.

Europe has become a continent whose leaders can openly votes in support of a vicious and openly neo-Nazi regime in Kiev without any backlash at all.  The EU will send the Banderists in Kiev money which it denies to the Greeks, and these same Greeks then vote in support of the Banderists.  Judging by the amount of laws passed in EU countries to ban racism, revisionism, negationism and even Fascism or National-Socialism one could get the mistaken impression that racism is frowned upon in the EU.  This is not so.  That only applies to anti-Jewish racism.  But anti-Russian racism is actually the official order of the day, and it enjoys a consensus support from the European elites.

So I sincerely ask you all, my friends and readers, what shall Russia do in response to that?  Pretend like this is not happening?  Try to shame Europeans into realizing what they have done (like Lavrov has been trying so many times)?  Does it not make sense for Russia to follow a simple course: try to avoid as best can be any wars or confrontations with the West (and that will be decided by the USA anyway) and turn towards the South, East and North for its future?

Honestly, what is the very bust Russia can hope for on its western borders?

The Saker

And what where Russia's "Orthodox brothers" doing in the meantime?

Do you know the feeling when a sentence just jumps at you from a page?  This is what happened to me today.  I was reading a post on RT entitled "Russia wants answers on NATO troop movement in Eastern Europe" when I suddenly saw this:
The statement comes after the USS Truxtun destroyer started a military exercises in March with the Bulgarian and Romanian navies a few hundred miles from Russian forces of the Black Sea Fleet.
Yeah.  Typical.  While Russia freed the people Crimea from the imminent danger of being literally occupied by Uniate Neo-Nazis "Banderites" Russia's "Orthodox brothers" were busy training with the US and NATO in the Black Sea.

Personally, I fully and totally agree with Ms Nuland and I think that Russia should - and will - turn to Asia (central, south and east) and Latin America for its future.

With such friends as "Slavs" (think Poland) or "Orthodox" (think Bulgaria), who needs enemies?

Serbia is the only real friend Russia ever had - or will have again - in the West.

The Saker

Obama - a diagnosis through humor (sorry, I could not resist)


Hezbollah's Leader: 'Despite Syria war, Resistance stronger than ever' - (English Subtitles)

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Latest goofy "sanction" out of the White House

In a new twist of absolutely staggering stupidity, it appears that NASA has decided to suspend all cooperation with Russia in a move to express its disapproval of the reunification of Crimea with Russia.  Apparently, some delusional megalomaniac in the Administration seriously believes that Russia depends on NASA for its space program while, of course, this is very much the other way around.  Just like the US needs Russia to safely get its "boys" out of Afghanistan, the US fully depends on Russia to get an astronaut into space and yet it is NATO and NASA which as suspending all cooperation with Russia and not the other way around.

I wonder what they would do if Russia decided to call their stupid bluff and really suspend all cooperation with NATO and NASA...

Mind you, Russians are hyper-realists and not easily offended.  As long as they don't care - and they don't - they won't take any harsh measures and let the crazies in the White House huff and puff about how they are "isolating Russia".  From the point of view of the Kremlin, the more the US adopts absolutely ridiculous and outright idiotic "sanctions", the clearer it is that nothing truly dangerous will happen.

Though, who knows, in despair the Obama Administration might take a truly dramatic decision.

Close the McDonald's on Pushkin square perhaps?

The Saker

A new Cold War has begun - let us embrace it with relief!

Considering the relative lull which seems to be taking place in the Ukraine, this might be a good time to look at the impact which the dramatic developments in the Ukraine have had upon the internal political scene in Russia and what that, in turn, could mean for the international (dis)order.  In order to do that, I would like to begin by a short summary of a thesis which I have already mentioned in the past (for a discussion please see here, here, here and here):

Setting the Russian part of the stage

First, some bullet-style reminders on topics previously covered on this blog: 
  1. There is no real Parliamentary opposition in Russia.  Oh, not at all because "Putin is a dictator" or because "Russia is not a democracy", but simply because Putin has brilliantly managed to either co-opt or defang any opposition.  How? By using his personal authority and charisma to promote an agenda which the other parties could not openly oppose.  Formally, opposition parties do, of course, still exist, but they completely lack credibility.  This might eventually change with the new Law on Political Parties.
  2. The only "hard" opposition to Putin in modern Russia are the various openly pro-US individuals (Nemtov, Novodvorskaia, etc) and their associated movements and parties.  At best, they represent something in the range of 5% (max!) of the population.
  3. Putin did a "judo move" on his real opponents (more about them later) by using the strongly "presidential Constitution" adopted in 1993 to basically concentrate all the power in his hands.
  4. The *real* "opposition" to Putin and his project can only be found *inside* the Kremlin, the "United Russia" party and some influential figures.  I refer to this real opposition as the "Atlantic Integrationists" (AI) because their key aim is to integrate Russia into the AngloZionist worldwide power structure.
  5. The *real* power base of Putin is in the Russian people themselves who support him personally, the All-Russian People's Front, and in the group which I call the "Eurasian Sovereignists" (ES) whose primary aims is to develop a new, multi-polar, world order, to to break free from the current AngloZionist controlled international financial system, to re-orient as much of the former USSR as possible towards an integration with the East, and to develop of the Russian North.
If I wanted to simplify things further, I would say that in 1999 the AI and the ES jointly made the push to put Putin into power to replace Eltsin.  The AI (roughly representing the interests of big money and big business) wanted a rather gray and dull bureaucrat like Putin (or so they thought!) to assure continuity and not rock the boat too much after Eltsin's departure.  The ES (roughly representing the interests of a certain elite of the former KGB, especially, its First Chief Directorate) and Putin himself, brilliantly used the power given to him by the 1993 Constitution (adopted under Eltsin and the AI!) to slowly but surely change the course of Russia from a total submission to, and colonization by, the USA to a process which Putin and his supporters call "sovereignization" i.e. national liberation.  A long tug-of-war ensued, mainly behind the scenes, but with regular visible flare-ups such as the open clash between Putin and Medvedev on Iran and Libya or the sacking of Kudrin by Medvedev (the two had been set on a collision course by Putin, of course).  As a last over-simplification I would say that Medvedev represents the Atlantic Integrationists and Putin the Eurasian Sovereignists.

Again, I have very much over-simplified all of the above to keep this short, but if any of this is new to you, please do go and read the four previous articles I mention above, including the comments.

Setting the Ukrainian part of the stage

Until this winter the biggest difference between Russia and the Ukraine was that in Russia Putin had basically destroyed to old oligarchy, which was US and Israeli controlled, and replaced it by a new one, which was either supportive of the Kremlin or neutral.  Putin's message to the Russian oligarchy was simple: "you can be rich, but don't compromise the welfare of the Russian nation or try to enter the political struggle".  For those who might wonder why Putin did not eliminate the Russian oligarchy as a class, I would restate here that everything which Putin did since 1999 until now was always a compromise between his ES and the still very powerful AS.  Putin could simply not directly challenge this very powerful, well-connected and wealthy group, so he had to proceed slowly and with caution, step by step.

In contrast to Russia, in the Ukraine the oligarchs realized what I would call "the Khodorkovsky Dream" - they basically bought everything: the entire economy, the totality of the mass-media, the Parliament and, of course, the Presidency.  For the past 22 years, the Ukraine has been basically enslaved by a number of oligarchs who made a simple deal with the West: you support us, and we support you.  As a result, the western leaders and the corporate media did "not notice" that all the Ukrainian politicians were corrupt to the bone, including Ianukovich and Tymoshenko, that - unlike in Russia, contrary to the AngloZionist propaganda - political disagreements in the Ukraine were often settled by assassinations, that the Ukrainian plutocracy was literally sucking the Ukraine dry of its wealth.  Eventually, even the amazingly rich Ukraine ran out of resources and wealth to pillage and the crisis became obvious for all to see.

Besides the pillaging of resources and wealth, another major "achievement" of the Ukrainian oligarchs was the total subordination of the state and its instruments to their needs: for them the state itself became and instrument of power and influence.  For example, the Ukrainian security service SBU (ex-KGB) spent all its time and resources involved in the internal power struggles between the various oligarchs and their power bases and, as a result, the SBU has not caught one single foreign spy in 22 years!  To make things worse, the SBU was basically run from the local station of the US CIA.  This wholesale destruction of the state apparatus itself played a key role in the events this winter and is still a central factor in the situation on the ground: for all practical purposes, there is no "Ukrainian state".

The Eurobureaucrats and Uncle Sam come waltzing in

It is against the background of this total collapse of the Ukraine as a state and a nation that the EU decided to make its move: it offered the Ukraine an association with the EU.  Uncle Sam loved the idea, especially since it included a political chapter to conduct the Ukraine's foreign and security policy in agreement with the EU.  This notion of a EU-run Ukraine also appealed to the USA which basically believed that the Ukraine was the key to Russia's putative imperial ambitions (see here for details).  Besides, the White House knew that if the Ukraine was run by the EU, and the EU run by the USA (which it has always been), then the Ukraine would be run from the USA.  So the West began dangling a big carrot in front of the Ukrainian people: "make a "civilizational choice" and join the EU and become rich, wealthy, happy and healthy; as for Russia - it has nothing to say in this, the Ukraine is a sovereign state".  For millions of impoverished and exploited Ukrainians, this was a dream come true: not only would they become wealthy and happy as the Europeans supposedly are (only in propaganda reports, but nevermind), they would finally get rid of the corrupted clique in power.  As for the Ukrainian oligarchs - they loved it too: they would get to continue exploiting the Ukraine and its people as long as they maintained an anti-Russian stance (which was easy enough - the Ukrainian oligarchs were literally terrified of Putin and, even more so, of the notion of a "Ukrainian Putin").

The big explosion

There is a saying which says that if your head is in the sand, your butt is in the air and, indeed, reality came back to bite the Ukrainians in the butt with exquisite vengeance: the country was broke, ruined, just weeks away from a default and the only place were money could be found to prevent the final collapse was Russia.  The Russians, however, put a condition on their help: no association agreement with the EU because Russia could not have a open market with the Ukraine while the Ukraine would open its market to EU goods and services (this was no "Machiavellian ploy" by Putin, but a basic and obvious necessity understandable to anybody with an "Economics 101" course under the belt).  At this point, Yanukovich suddenly made a 180 turn which  sincerely baffled many Ukrainians, turned to Moscow for help and all hell broke loose: outraged Ukrainians took to the street and wanted to know why their dream of prosperity was denied to them.  The USA also panicked - if Russia was allowed to rescue the Ukraine it would inevitably control it - "you paid for it, you own it" says the US logic.  So the USA threw in its biggest weapon: the "Ukrainian Taliban" aka the "Right Sector", the Freedom Party (ex Social-Nationalist Party) and its assorted neo-Nazi thugs.  The sudden appearance of bona fide Banderites and other neo-Nazis scared the Russian speakers so badly that while the freaks in the new revolutionary regime in Kiev were busying themselves with banning Russian as an official language or de-criminializing Nazi propaganda, Crimea seceded and most of the Ukraine entered a period of complete chaos and lawlessness.

We all know what happened since, so there is no need to cover it again, and we can now look at these events from the point of view of Russian internal politics and their likely global impact.

The view from Moscow

The first thing to say here is that Putin's popularity with the Russian public has soared to new heights: it currently stands at 71.6% and that even though there has been little progress on the anti-corruption front, no progress at all in the much needed reform of the judicial system and with a Russian economy going through some difficult times.  Still, regardless of many unsolved problems facing Russia - Putin is currently simply impossible to attack as he has positioned himself as the man who saved Crimea and, possible, even Russia (more about that below).

The second dramatic effect of the events in the Ukraine is that is has further polarized the Russia society.  I am not saying that this is fair, but the fact is that Russian politicians now have two choices.  They can position themselves either as:

1) True Russian patriots who support Putin, support the reintegration of Crimea, support the Russian policy of standing up to the West or,

2) Russian "liberals", who are russophobic, bought and paid for by the US, who are nothing more than a 5th column (Putin used this term), pro-capitalist, pro-NATO and even pro-Nazi (remember, the West does now openly support Nazis in the Ukraine!).

Needless to say, all the Russian politicians scrambled over each other to show that they firmly belonged to Group One.  Even Sergei Mironov, the head of the "Just Russia" Party and last "real" opposition leader inside the Duma, took the lead in helping Crimea (which got him on the US and EU sanctions list).  Those who failed to do so are now dead meat.

The most credible of them all, Alexei Navalnyi, the only opposition leader not associated with the Eltsin regime of the 1990s, wrote  an article in the NYT entitled "How to punish Putin" in which he went as far as to make a list of names the US should punish.  In the current political mood in Russia, this is nothing short of a political suicide and Navalnyi's political career is now ended.  He might as well emigrate to the London or the USA.

But the biggest result of the crisis in the Ukraine was to put Russia and the USA on an open collision course.  Seen from Russia this is what the West has done:

1)   organized an illegal armed insurgency
2)   overthrown a legitimate (if corrupt) government
3)   supported neo-Nazis
4)   put anti-Russian policies over democratic values
5)   put anti-Russian policies over the right of self-determination
6)   refused to recognize the will of the Russian people in the Crimea
7)   refused to recognized the will of the Russian-speakers in the Ukraine
8)   sanctioned Russia symbolically only because it could not do more
9)   failed to intervene militarily only because it feared Russia's military might
10) strong-armed the world at the UN to condemn Russia

Against this background - what chance do the Atlantic Integrationists to get any support for their policies?  None, of course.  Not only that, but the sanctions used by the West have made it possible for Putin to do that which he could not have done before: scare Russians away from western banks (either into off-shores or into Russian banks), create a Russian SWIFT-like inter-bank pay system, shift more efforts into exporting gas to China and the rest of Asia, reduce the Russian participation in US-run bodies such as the G8 or NATO, force Russia to deploy more powerful military capabilities on its western borders (Iskanders in Kaliningrad, Tu-22M3s in Crimea), reduce Russian tourism abroad and send it to Russian regions and last, but not least, further reduce the Russian use of the US dollar.  All this is a dream come true for economists like Glazyev or politicians like Rogozin who have lobbied hard for such measures since many years but whose advice Putin had to ignore lest the Atlantic Integrationists strike back.  But now there is even some serious talk in Russia about withdrawing from many key military treaties (strategic nuclear, conventional, nuclear verification, etc.) or even the WTO (unlikely).

It now has become extremely easy for Putin to fire anybody on the grounds that this person is not effectively implementing the President's decisions.  Now everybody knows that and every single Atlantic Integrationist now runs the risk of being summarily dismissed.  In truth, it must be said that Barak Obama has helped Putin immensely and that thanks for the truly insane US policy on the Ukraine the position of the (generally pro-US) Atlantic Integrationists has been undermined for many years to come.

A joke told for the first time on Russian TV by, of all people, the spokesman of the Russian Investigative Committee (a "Russian FBI" one could say), not exactly somebody noted for his humor, has become particularly popular these days.  It goes like this:
Barack Obama boycotted the Olympics and did not attend the games in Sochi - and we brilliantly won and the Olympics and Para-Olympics. Thank you, Comrade Obama!
Obama then strongly supported extremists Kiev junta - and we miraculously regained Crimea. Thank you, Comrade Obama!
Obama imposed sanctions on our oligarchs - and now their money is not in the West but in Russia. Thank you, Comrade Obama!
Now, if we may, we have more wish: we would like to win the World Soccer Cup...
Jokes aside, there is much truth to this joke - the more the USA is trying to maximize the stakes and beat back Russia, the stronger Russia becomes and the stronger Putin becomes in Russia.

As for the poor few pro-US activists left in Russia, they are truly in a desperate situation: for years they had to fight off accusations of being associated with the horrors of the Eltsin regime in the 1990s and now, to this terrible legacy, they can add the new burden of having to fight off accusations of being "pro-Banderastan".  Frankly, they all might as well all pack and leave for the West, as in Russia they are finished.

What does that mean for the rest of the world?

I have often described the covert struggle between the Atlantic Integrationists and the Eurasian Sovereignists as "internal" or "behind the scenes", which was mainly true until now.  The events in the Ukraine have now changed this and the kind of issues the "Eurasian Sovereignists" have been only alluding to in more or less oblique terms are now openly discussed on Russian TV: how to coexist with a hysterically russophobic and openly pro-Nazi West, how to decrease the Russian participation in, and dependence upon, the AngloZionist controlled international financial system, what kind of measures to take to make sure that the US and NATO will never have a viable military option, how to deal with the "internal 5th column" inside Russia so as to avoid a "Maidan in Moscow", how to deal with the kind of US-sponsored subversive organizations (such as NED, Carnegie, etc.) who still operate in Russia, how to make sure that any rabidly anti-Russian government in Kiev is not allowed to survive economically and socially, etc.  I would call that the "Nuland stance" but applied not to the EU, but to the USA.  Does that mean a new Cold War?

Yes, you betcha it does!

But I would immediately stress here that this new Cold War is entirely, 100%, the creation of the USA and that all Russia has now done is accept the new reality it is operating in.  Neither Putin nor anybody else in Russia wanted this new Cold War, but it has been unilaterally imposed upon them by the US and its EU colonies for the past 20 years or more.  Think of this: the true main reason why the US and EU are not imposing any meaningful sanctions on Russia is that they have already done so in the past and that there is nothing left to impose short of sanctions which will hurt the West as much, or even more, than Russia.  The same goes for the so-called "international image of Russia".  Has anybody forgotten all the idiotic canards systematically and mantrically promoted by the Western corporate media about Russia before the crisis in the Ukraine?  Here is a quick reminder taken from my past article on this topic:
  • Berezovsky as a "persecuted" businessman
  • Politkovskaya "murdered by KGB goons"
  • Khodorkovsky jailed for his love of "liberty"
  • Russia's "aggression" against Georgia
  • The Russian "genocidal" wars against the Chechen people
  • "Pussy Riot" as "prisoners of conscience"
  • Litvineko "murdered by Putin"Russian homosexuals "persecuted" and "mistreated" by the state
  • Magnitsky and the subsequent "Magnitsky law"
  • Snowden as a "traitor hiding in Russia"
  • The "stolen elections" to the Duma and the Presidency
  • The "White Revolution" on the Bolotnaya square
  • The "new Sakharov" - Alexei Navalnyi
  • Russia's "support for Assad", the (Chemical) "Butcher of Damascus"
  • The Russian constant "intervention" in Ukrainian affairs
  • The "complete control" of the Kremlin over the Russian media
I would say that this list is already long enough and that nobody in Russia needs to worry that anything the Kremlin does from now on will make it worse.  Short of waging war on Russia it they did on Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bosnia, Croatia, Kosovo, Libya or Syria - the USA has pretty "maxed out" its anti-Russian policies, and the fact is they don't amount to much.

So what do you call a little bit of something bad, but not enough to really hurt you.  Nietzsche would call it a power boost.  Modern medicine calls it an immunization.  The choice of words does not matter, only the actual phenomenon does: the US and EU did inflict a considerable amount of pain on Russia, but not enough to break it and, as a direct consequence of that, Russia has received a powerful "anti-AngloZionist immunization" which will make it far stronger than it was.

And that is good news for everybody.

For better or for worse, Russia is objectively the undisputed leader of the world resistance to the AngloZionist Empire.  Yes, the Chinese economy is much bigger, but China's military is not, and China is heavily dependent on Russia for energy, weapons and high-tech.  I do think that China will inevitably take the lead in the struggle against the AngoZionist Empire, but this is still not the case today: China needs more time.  Iran is most definitely the oldest and first country to dare to openly defy the AngloZionists (along with Cuba and the DPRK, but those are really weak), but Iran's ambitions are primarily regional (which, by the way, is a sign of wisdom on the part of the Iranian leadership).  As for Hezbollah it is, in my opinion, the moral leader of the worldwide Resistance, not only by its truly phenomenal military achievements, but primarily by its willingness to stand completely alone, if needed.  But being a moral beacon does not mean being able to globally challenge the Empire.  Russia, China, Iran and Hezbollah form what I would call, to paraphrase Dubya,  the "Axis of Resistance to Empire" and Russia plays the key role inside this informal but strong alliance.

The other place where "it" is happening is, of course, Latin America, but the recent vote at the UN has clearly shown that Bolivia, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba are the only ones who already dare openly defy the US hegemony (and the regime in Venezuela is currently fighting for its survival).  Thus, while Latin America has a huge potential, but it is far from being realized, at least at this point in time. 

Conclusion 

A New Cold war has been in the making since the very day the previous Cold War officially ended.  Thus, we can only welcome the new reality introduced by the crisis in the Ukraine: Russia has now openly accepted the US challenge and all the pretenses of some kind of US-Russian strategic partnership are long gone.  As for the EU, its role has been so shameful and disgraceful that Russia will treat it exactly as it deserves to be: a thoroughly submissive US protectorate with no policy or opinion of its own.  Now that the pretense of "partnership" is finally being dropped, we can expect a much more assertive, if not confrontational, Russia on the international scene.  Of course, I don't mean that Putin will start banging his shoe at the UN like (allegedly) Krushchev did, nor will Putin threaten to "bury" the West - Putin, Lavrov and Churkin are real statesmen and diplomats, and they will remain impeccably courteous - but you can expect many more "no" votes at the UN and many "we are so sorry" on many bilateral issues.

The big beneficiary of this new Cold War will be Iran, of course, but also China.  Not only will Iran and China probably get the weapons they have been wanting so badly (S-300 and Su-35 respectively), China will get some very sweet deals on Russian energy prices (the Chinese are definitely smart enough to use this new situation without overplaying their hand - they will do it "just right").  Syria and Hezbollah will get more money, more weapons and more political support.  Countries aspiring to eventually become members of the "Axis of Resistance to Empire" will get more financial and political aid (Cuba, Nicaragua, Bolivia and, especially, Venezuela need all the help they can get) as will more or less pragmatic countries who did not fully sell out to the USA (the BRICS of course, but also smaller countries such as Argentina, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and all the others who abstained at the infamous UN vote recently).  One should also not underestimate the assistance China can render to these countries or all the benefits these countries can reap from cooperating with the other BRICS countries.

As for the EU, it will get the gas it pays for, and it will have to deal with the economic aftershocks of its involvement in the Ukrainian crisis: it will have to keep the Ukrainian economy afloat, barely above the waterline at best, and it will have to deal with the inevitable flood of economic refugees and it will have the dubious pleasure of having to deal with the thorny problem "Ukrainian Taliban" now running loose in their self-styled Banderastan.  The EU will have to deal with all that under the high auspices of a USA which barely hides its contempt for Europe or, as was the case with Nuland, does not even bother hiding it any more.  As for Uncle Sam - what he can't get, he burns down and that is what he will end up doing with the rump-Ukraine aka "Banderastan": turn it into a larger Kosovo - a big pain for all its neighbors, but a place the US military machine can use as it wishes.  Unlike Kosovo, however, rump-Ukraine will eventually fall apart, one way or another, but the fiction of a functioning state can be maintained for a long while, especially if there is a consensus in the plutocracies which run the West that form matters much more than substance and that as long as the appearance of a unitary Ukrainian state are there, all is well.  Frankly, and no offense intended to any Ukie nationalist reading this, Uncle Sam has much bigger fish to fry than to deal with the problems of a "Kosovo v2" in Central Europe.

The trends I sketched out above are, of course, just general trends.  There will be some "zigs" and some "zags" in this process, but barring some major and unforeseen event, this is where, I think, we are heading.  Sure, there will be a Presidential election held in grotesque conditions, a completely corrupted oligarch like Poroshenko will buy himself a victory, while the US-backed regime in Kiev and the "Ukrainian Taliban" settle scores and murder each other.  Russia will most likely not intervene militarily, unless the situation becomes really crazy, some form of US-Russian agreement is more likely, and the eastern Ukraine will try to find a way to make some money with Russia.  The Crimea will see an unprecedented economic boom which will attract a lot of attention in the rump-Ukraine which will be desperate to get some small portion of the financial windfall enjoyed by Crimea.  As they say "money talks".

As for Obama, he will go down in history as the worst US President ever.  Except the next one, of course.

The Saker

Nasrallah: Hezbollah's intervention in Syria was 'very late' - (English Subtitles)