Tuesday, January 21, 2014
Under US pressure UN "disinvites" Iran from Geneva II talks - what will Russia and Syria do now?
OMG - it happened: Under US pressure UN "disinvites" Iran from Geneva II talks. Now that is a direct challenge to Russia which logically should cancel its participation to the conference. Syria, I believe should do the same.
Screw them. This is a farce and neither Syria nor Russia should agree to participate in a farce organized by the side which lost the war. I hope that Assad and Putin will not accept that absolutely outrageous situation.
Lavrov had declared that Iran's absence from Geneva II would be an "unforgivable mistake" and "profane" (he actually said that it would be a "profanation" which in Russian means something close to "abomination"). Great! Now act on these words and pull out of this charade!
I want to clarify the following here: the minor reason why Russia and Syria should refuse to attend Geneva II without Iran is that Iran's exclusion just makes no sense. But that is the minor reason only. The major reason for refusing these terms is that the USA and the so-called "opposition" have lost the war and they are in no position to set terms. History, including Russian history, has seen many examples of the loosing side dictating terms to the winning side and that is always a recipe for disaster. Last time Russia "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory" was at the infamous "Khasavyurt agreement" but that is hardly the only case.
Maybe I am being unfair to Putin, Lavrov and Assad, but I am literally terrified that they will fall into this trap. But then, I am paranoid and pessimistic by natural inclination, upbringing, training and philosophy. I hope that I am wrong this time...
So far, all we know is that Kerry called Lavrov today (the 20th). No more details so far.
The Saker
PS: just listened to the 3AM Russian news. Just reporting the fact. No reaction so far from Lavrov or Putin. I have this really bad feeling....
Screw them. This is a farce and neither Syria nor Russia should agree to participate in a farce organized by the side which lost the war. I hope that Assad and Putin will not accept that absolutely outrageous situation.
Lavrov had declared that Iran's absence from Geneva II would be an "unforgivable mistake" and "profane" (he actually said that it would be a "profanation" which in Russian means something close to "abomination"). Great! Now act on these words and pull out of this charade!
I want to clarify the following here: the minor reason why Russia and Syria should refuse to attend Geneva II without Iran is that Iran's exclusion just makes no sense. But that is the minor reason only. The major reason for refusing these terms is that the USA and the so-called "opposition" have lost the war and they are in no position to set terms. History, including Russian history, has seen many examples of the loosing side dictating terms to the winning side and that is always a recipe for disaster. Last time Russia "snatched defeat from the jaws of victory" was at the infamous "Khasavyurt agreement" but that is hardly the only case.
Maybe I am being unfair to Putin, Lavrov and Assad, but I am literally terrified that they will fall into this trap. But then, I am paranoid and pessimistic by natural inclination, upbringing, training and philosophy. I hope that I am wrong this time...
So far, all we know is that Kerry called Lavrov today (the 20th). No more details so far.
The Saker
PS: just listened to the 3AM Russian news. Just reporting the fact. No reaction so far from Lavrov or Putin. I have this really bad feeling....
Monday, January 20, 2014
Ugly storm clouds are gathering over the Ukraine and Russia
Yesterday some very serious riots took place in Kiev. The Yanukovich government has passed a new law which attempts to restrict the kind of rioting the Ukraine has seen in the past months, and the response of the rioters was a full scale assault on the riot police. What I find the most appalling is that the government is ordering the riot cops to just stand there and hold their position, but not to fight back. That, of course, only serves to heighten the already strong sense of impunity of the rioters who now attack the cops with Molotov cocktails, large rocks, metal bars, teargas, knives and fire extinguishers. Numerous cops were hospitalized yesterday after begin attacked by the rioters. Still, the cops are under strict orders not to fight back while the US is demanding that the riot police be removed from the streets. And in the meantime, what does the Yanukovich government say? They are offering to negotiate with the opposition.
With every passing day, Yanukovich reminds me more and more of Alexander Kerensky, and I am afraid that, just like Kerensky, Yanukovich will end up running for his life while thugs and terrorists seize power.
To get a feel for what took place on Sunday, please check out this Russian TV report (in Russian, but the images speak for themselves):
In the meantime, the website Vilayat Dagestan, which is linked to the so-called Ansar al-Sunna terrorist organization has published a video featuring footage of the two men who committed the recent suicide attacks in Volgograd. Entitled "Appeal of Suleiman and Abdurakhman before the martyrdom operation in Volgograd" the video shows how they built their bombs and it includes a threat directly made to Vladimir Putin who is told that Ansar al-Sunna is preparing a "surprise" for him and for the Olympic tourists to avenge the blood of Muslims which is shed worldwide. The video is 45min long and in Russian, but if you want to check it out for yourself, here it is:
Now, the two guys on the video are dead, as are many, possibly most or even all, of their accomplices which were located and killed by Russian special forces. Still, the threat, I think, is real and should be taken very seriously.
There is more than just threats made by all sorts of Wahabi crazies. There seems to be a concerted propaganda campaign by the Western corporate media to convince the general public that these Olympic games have some kind of special meaning for Putin who, as the BBC put it recently, "has staked his reputation on this event". I have no idea where they got this notion, but it is most definitely not based on anything factual, if only because "staking his reputation" on a sports event is not at all the kind of stuff Putin would do. Yet the Western propaganda machine is in full swing telling us that these upcoming games are somehow a crucial test for Putin. This tells me that the western special services are, again, up to no good and that for all the US promises to work with the Russians for the security of this event, the reality is that somebody somewhere is preparing a big attack on these games.
The Russian author and dramatist Anton Chekhov used to say that if you put a gun on stage in the first act of a play, it should be fired in the second act. Well, the gun is clearly hanging on the wall and the first act is about to begin. Whether it will be fired in the second act is now in God's hands.
The Saker
With every passing day, Yanukovich reminds me more and more of Alexander Kerensky, and I am afraid that, just like Kerensky, Yanukovich will end up running for his life while thugs and terrorists seize power.
To get a feel for what took place on Sunday, please check out this Russian TV report (in Russian, but the images speak for themselves):
In the meantime, the website Vilayat Dagestan, which is linked to the so-called Ansar al-Sunna terrorist organization has published a video featuring footage of the two men who committed the recent suicide attacks in Volgograd. Entitled "Appeal of Suleiman and Abdurakhman before the martyrdom operation in Volgograd" the video shows how they built their bombs and it includes a threat directly made to Vladimir Putin who is told that Ansar al-Sunna is preparing a "surprise" for him and for the Olympic tourists to avenge the blood of Muslims which is shed worldwide. The video is 45min long and in Russian, but if you want to check it out for yourself, here it is:
Now, the two guys on the video are dead, as are many, possibly most or even all, of their accomplices which were located and killed by Russian special forces. Still, the threat, I think, is real and should be taken very seriously.
There is more than just threats made by all sorts of Wahabi crazies. There seems to be a concerted propaganda campaign by the Western corporate media to convince the general public that these Olympic games have some kind of special meaning for Putin who, as the BBC put it recently, "has staked his reputation on this event". I have no idea where they got this notion, but it is most definitely not based on anything factual, if only because "staking his reputation" on a sports event is not at all the kind of stuff Putin would do. Yet the Western propaganda machine is in full swing telling us that these upcoming games are somehow a crucial test for Putin. This tells me that the western special services are, again, up to no good and that for all the US promises to work with the Russians for the security of this event, the reality is that somebody somewhere is preparing a big attack on these games.
The Russian author and dramatist Anton Chekhov used to say that if you put a gun on stage in the first act of a play, it should be fired in the second act. Well, the gun is clearly hanging on the wall and the first act is about to begin. Whether it will be fired in the second act is now in God's hands.
The Saker
Iran is officially invited to participate at Geneva 2, but everything else remains unclear (UPDATED 2x!)
It took a lot of zigs and zags, but eventually common sense seemed to have prevailed and the UN has officially announced that Iran will be invited as a full participant to the Geneva 2 conference. The Obama Administration should probably commended for being rational and not gone down the insane road of trying to negotiate something in Syria without inviting Iran. Most of the credit in this case goes to Putin and Lavrov who from the beginning made Iran's full participation a condicio sine qua non for a Russian participation to the planned conference. Apparently, the USA's agreement was "bought" by a rather infantile face-saving ploy to "dilute" Iran amongst other wholly irrelevant countries such as Austria, Luxembourg or Mexico. I think of them as "diplomatic plankton". That's fine - everybody present understands "who is who" and "what is what" - and most participants will simply wait to be told to sign on the dotted line by the real players. As for the "opposition" - the Saudi backed Takfiris refused to attend, the US-backed "moderates" will show up. This is basically the best possible lineup.
What can we expect now?
Nobody knows and your guess is as good as mine.
Ideally, the best possible outcome for Syria would be a deal between the US and Syria which would leave Assad in power, the organization of a multi-party elections and constitutional reforms to be adopted by means of a referendum. In plain English, this means "Assad remains in power". This is the logical solution if only because 1) by all estimates Assad has the support of a majority of the Syrian people and 2) his regime has won the war. This is what Russia and Iran would prefer. The Saudis will never accept that. Which leaves the US to decide whether this is an acceptable option or not. Considering that the US Neocons are firmly in control of Congress and the US corporate Ziomedia, it would be politically very very difficult for Obama's Administration to agree to such a deal. With US elections coming up fairly soon, I really don't think that the US will accept that.
Second option, is the same as the first one (organization of a multi-party elections and constitutional reforms to be adopted by means of a referendum), but with a clear date for exit foreseen for Assad. That is a much better option for the US which could "declare victory and leave" - an old and honored US tradition. The big problem with this option is that the Syrian people might not like being told that their President and victor of the war must leave "kuz the US says so". Russia also said many times that "only the Syrian people must decide who is in power" which could indicate a Russian rejection of such an option. Both Iran and Russia might not want to weaken the winning party by agreeing to what can only be called a "US ordered coup via a UN Conference". Besides, even if Assad agreed to step down, what would the guarantees be that the US will not reignite the war at a latter date? The US will push for that option, but I don't see the other side accepting either.
Option three is obvious: no agreement is found and all parties depart blaming each other for the failure. This is a bad outcome almost by definition, but I think that time is on Assad's side and that means that this is a worse outcome for the US than it would be for the Syria-Iran-Russia alliance. It is hard to imagine a mechanism by which the tide of the war could be reversed and, in fact, all the signs on the ground are that the opposition is very close to a military and political collapse. Of course, whether the Ziocrazies in the USA understand that, or even whether they are willing to accept the facts in "realworld" is dubious. They might press on just because they are so out of touch with reality.
Which leaves option four. In very general terms a viable "option four" would probably be based on some kind of alliance between the pro-US opposition and the regime against the Takfiris. I honestly don't know whether such an option can be adopted in Geneva II. Assuming a fourth option is found, that is the one that, God willing, will be hammered out in detail between Russia, the US, Iran and Syria and, if the relevant parties agree, will be submitted for (automatic) approval to the "diplomatic plankton" representing the so-called "international community". If that happens, the KSA will be told in no uncertain terms to "give it up or else", at least for the time being.
What is your take on this situation and what do you think will happen at Geneva II?
Please let us know.
The Saker
UPDATE1: Just as I had finished the above, I saw a news item saying that the Syrian opposition announced that unless Iran is dis-invited, they will not participate. In a tweet, SNC spokesman Louay Safi wrote: "The Syrian Coalition announces that they will withdraw their attendance in G2 unless Ban Ki-moon retracts Iran's invitation" reports the BBC. For the life of me I cannot image a dumber statement to make: don't they understand that their only chance of survival is to hammer out some kind of deal with the regime in order to get rid of the Takfiris? This makes me wonder if the SNC is being pushed towards that kind of suicidal stance by Israel and the US Ziocons (a la McCain). Does anybody still remember how the US told Itzebegovich to retract his agreement to a negotiated solution in Bosnia? But this is not Bosnia, but 2014 and if the SNC think that they can repeat the Bosnian tactic they are mistaken. If this is how the "moderate" opposition acts, I am inclined to think that there is only one solution left: a total military victory by the regime.
What is your take on that latest zag by the SNC?
UPDATE2: Now its the US which is "zagging": according to the BBC, the US is now also telling the UN that Iran must be dis-invited. Such a reversal by the US is infantile, unprofessional and simply utterly ridiculous. The more this kind of nonsense goes on, the more I wonder if Assad and Syria would not be better off simply winning this war without any form of negotiations at all...
What can we expect now?
Nobody knows and your guess is as good as mine.
Ideally, the best possible outcome for Syria would be a deal between the US and Syria which would leave Assad in power, the organization of a multi-party elections and constitutional reforms to be adopted by means of a referendum. In plain English, this means "Assad remains in power". This is the logical solution if only because 1) by all estimates Assad has the support of a majority of the Syrian people and 2) his regime has won the war. This is what Russia and Iran would prefer. The Saudis will never accept that. Which leaves the US to decide whether this is an acceptable option or not. Considering that the US Neocons are firmly in control of Congress and the US corporate Ziomedia, it would be politically very very difficult for Obama's Administration to agree to such a deal. With US elections coming up fairly soon, I really don't think that the US will accept that.
Second option, is the same as the first one (organization of a multi-party elections and constitutional reforms to be adopted by means of a referendum), but with a clear date for exit foreseen for Assad. That is a much better option for the US which could "declare victory and leave" - an old and honored US tradition. The big problem with this option is that the Syrian people might not like being told that their President and victor of the war must leave "kuz the US says so". Russia also said many times that "only the Syrian people must decide who is in power" which could indicate a Russian rejection of such an option. Both Iran and Russia might not want to weaken the winning party by agreeing to what can only be called a "US ordered coup via a UN Conference". Besides, even if Assad agreed to step down, what would the guarantees be that the US will not reignite the war at a latter date? The US will push for that option, but I don't see the other side accepting either.
Option three is obvious: no agreement is found and all parties depart blaming each other for the failure. This is a bad outcome almost by definition, but I think that time is on Assad's side and that means that this is a worse outcome for the US than it would be for the Syria-Iran-Russia alliance. It is hard to imagine a mechanism by which the tide of the war could be reversed and, in fact, all the signs on the ground are that the opposition is very close to a military and political collapse. Of course, whether the Ziocrazies in the USA understand that, or even whether they are willing to accept the facts in "realworld" is dubious. They might press on just because they are so out of touch with reality.
Which leaves option four. In very general terms a viable "option four" would probably be based on some kind of alliance between the pro-US opposition and the regime against the Takfiris. I honestly don't know whether such an option can be adopted in Geneva II. Assuming a fourth option is found, that is the one that, God willing, will be hammered out in detail between Russia, the US, Iran and Syria and, if the relevant parties agree, will be submitted for (automatic) approval to the "diplomatic plankton" representing the so-called "international community". If that happens, the KSA will be told in no uncertain terms to "give it up or else", at least for the time being.
What is your take on this situation and what do you think will happen at Geneva II?
Please let us know.
The Saker
UPDATE1: Just as I had finished the above, I saw a news item saying that the Syrian opposition announced that unless Iran is dis-invited, they will not participate. In a tweet, SNC spokesman Louay Safi wrote: "The Syrian Coalition announces that they will withdraw their attendance in G2 unless Ban Ki-moon retracts Iran's invitation" reports the BBC. For the life of me I cannot image a dumber statement to make: don't they understand that their only chance of survival is to hammer out some kind of deal with the regime in order to get rid of the Takfiris? This makes me wonder if the SNC is being pushed towards that kind of suicidal stance by Israel and the US Ziocons (a la McCain). Does anybody still remember how the US told Itzebegovich to retract his agreement to a negotiated solution in Bosnia? But this is not Bosnia, but 2014 and if the SNC think that they can repeat the Bosnian tactic they are mistaken. If this is how the "moderate" opposition acts, I am inclined to think that there is only one solution left: a total military victory by the regime.
What is your take on that latest zag by the SNC?
UPDATE2: Now its the US which is "zagging": according to the BBC, the US is now also telling the UN that Iran must be dis-invited. Such a reversal by the US is infantile, unprofessional and simply utterly ridiculous. The more this kind of nonsense goes on, the more I wonder if Assad and Syria would not be better off simply winning this war without any form of negotiations at all...
Saturday, January 11, 2014
Very interesting hypothesis about the events in Syria - request for comments
JohnM has just posted an interesting commentary about the current events in Syria which, I think, deserves to be fully quoted. Here is what he wrote:
Still, the notion is tempting, to say the least. I think of how often the Russians say "every Wahabi which Assad kills is one that we won't have to kill in the Caucasus" and I wonder if somebody in Washington DC can come to terms with the notion that "every Wahabi which Assad kills is one that we won't have to kill in Iraq/Afghanistan/Somalia/Yemen/etc.".
I think that John is totally correct when he says that the impact of this change in dynamics (assuming it continues) on the neighboring countries will be crucial. Honestly, I think that the Turks acted with a mind-boggling stupidity and now they have to come to terms that there will be a price to pay for their arrogance. Their options are bad: either deal with the Kurds or deal with the Takfiri liver-eaters. I think that the better deal is obvious: deal with the Kurds. First, the Kurds are *rational* and then even have a common enemy (the Wahabi crazies). Second, it is about time for the Turks to finally begin seeking a long-term agreement with the Kurds or risk loosing it all. If the Turks really believe that they can "control" the Kurds by pure force they are kidding themselves and from a negotiating point of view they are much better off negotiating with the Kurds now, when the Kurds are also in a difficult situation, than later when the Kurds might find themselves in a strong position both in Iraq and in Syria (both of these regimes have indicated that are willing to work out a deal with the Kurds).
Anyway - am want to throw out this hypothesis: could it be that what we are seeing in Syria is a strategic shift in alliances and that the next phase of the war will be one of the KSA, the Gulf monarchies and the various al-Qaeda franchises will end up fighting against the USA, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and the Kurds?
If not - what do you think is going on?
Cheers,
The Saker
What I'm thinking is that as part of an Assad/Russia deal with the "non-Islamic rebels" (label is arbitrary and largely inaccurate) is this current battle between generally (this is a VERY fluid and fuzzy dividing line) the foreign fighters versus the local fighters. This deal (if it exists) is very nebulous, involves a lot of ifs and its desired outcome is a big Goat Rodeo. Just the sort of stuff they live on in this area (both geographic and on the foreign policy level).Now my naturally pessimistic inclinations usually make me doubt any hypothesis in which a previously irrational party suddenly begins to act in a rational way. In this case, that previously irrational party would be both the FSA and the USA. However, this skepticism of mine is counter-balanced by the fact that the G8 agreement reached in Lough Erne had something very similar unambiguously spelled out. I quoted the text of the agreement on my blog, with the key words in red and my comments in blue:
As part of coming in from the cold, the local based fighters are told to clean their house (get rid of the foreign nut job extremists) and then a deal can be done. Amnesties, changes to the constitution (damn if I know what their constitution states or even if they have one), perhaps some kind of political structure akin to Lebanon, power sharing (probably limited and local considering the Kurds would have to be part of this) and to be capped off with elections for various and all positions would be on the table. This would be supervised by say Russia, China and the West in the form of say Germany and/or even the US.
Obama gets a capstone for his presidency (already in tatters, so he needs something). Russia gets prestige and some roll back of extremism on it's southern flank. China gets business. Europe gets business and pipelines. Assad get's some peace, some rehabilitation with whatever PR he wants or needs, depending on how he plays it. Saudi gets the stick up its ass.
What to watch over the next couple of months will be Turkey, Jordan, Iraq and Saudi. Turkey will have to come visibly into line on this since I foresee some kind of federated Syria with a large amount of autonomy for the Kurds (very thorny problem). Turkey also has to deal with the foreign fighters on their soil, those running from Syria and the high horse they have climbed onto when they changed their foreign policy 2 to 3 years back. Jordan has kept a relatively low profile but has similar problems. Iraq will have to deal with the extremists (call them whatever you wish, they're certifiable) coming back and raising Hell. Some of this is already manifesting itself (visibly to the western media at least) in Fallujah with the Tribes splitting overtly with AQI. Saudi (and Israel) will scream, pout and make threats. It remains to be seen how far they will push it.
We are deeply concerned by the growing threat from terrorism and extremism in Syria,and also by the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict. Syria must belong to all Syrians, including its minorities and all religious groups. We call on the Syrian authorities and opposition at the Geneva Conference jointly to commit to destroying and expelling from Syria all organisations and individuals affiliated to Al Qaeda, and any other non-state actors linked to terrorism (amazing sentence! The insurgency and the government of Syria are called upon to JOINTLY *destroy* the very forces which the USA wants to arm? That the government would be more than happy to destroy or expel al-Nusra is clear, but the FSA? Is the G8 really calling for a civil war inside the insurgency!?).At the time nobody paid attention to these words, but the fact is that this text was signed by the G8 and that it seemed to suggest exactly what we see taking place today. Of course, what is taking place today might not be the result of the G8 agreement at all, but simply the inevitable outcome of a conflict whose dynamics are pretty much pre-ordained. If we assume that not all anti-Assad forces are composed of Takfiri reptiles and if we assume that Assad is willing to work with anybody sane (and I think that both of these assumptions are reasonable), then the logical thing would be for all non-Takfiri forces to join their efforts against the crazies. What is certain is that the Takfiri infection has now reached Fallujah in Iraq which, in turn, is putting in motion some kind of US/Iraqi/Iranian reaction as nobody can afford yielding a strategic city to a horde of crazed Wahabis. Objectively, the US, Iran and Syria should be working together against the Takfiri crazies throughout the region. The big "IF" is whether there is anybody with the brains and the balls in the White House to understand that and act on it.
Still, the notion is tempting, to say the least. I think of how often the Russians say "every Wahabi which Assad kills is one that we won't have to kill in the Caucasus" and I wonder if somebody in Washington DC can come to terms with the notion that "every Wahabi which Assad kills is one that we won't have to kill in Iraq/Afghanistan/Somalia/Yemen/etc.".
I think that John is totally correct when he says that the impact of this change in dynamics (assuming it continues) on the neighboring countries will be crucial. Honestly, I think that the Turks acted with a mind-boggling stupidity and now they have to come to terms that there will be a price to pay for their arrogance. Their options are bad: either deal with the Kurds or deal with the Takfiri liver-eaters. I think that the better deal is obvious: deal with the Kurds. First, the Kurds are *rational* and then even have a common enemy (the Wahabi crazies). Second, it is about time for the Turks to finally begin seeking a long-term agreement with the Kurds or risk loosing it all. If the Turks really believe that they can "control" the Kurds by pure force they are kidding themselves and from a negotiating point of view they are much better off negotiating with the Kurds now, when the Kurds are also in a difficult situation, than later when the Kurds might find themselves in a strong position both in Iraq and in Syria (both of these regimes have indicated that are willing to work out a deal with the Kurds).
Anyway - am want to throw out this hypothesis: could it be that what we are seeing in Syria is a strategic shift in alliances and that the next phase of the war will be one of the KSA, the Gulf monarchies and the various al-Qaeda franchises will end up fighting against the USA, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and the Kurds?
If not - what do you think is going on?
Cheers,
The Saker
Friday, January 10, 2014
A few news updates from the virtual trenches of the "Quenelle war"
First, thanks to gallier2 for pointing out this rather surprisingly reasonable video about Dieudonne and the "quenelle" gesture; this report even features a short interview of Alain Soral who explains what is really going on. I never would have thought that the BBC could still produce such a more or less well balanced and reasonable report.
Second, as I have mentioned in a previous report, Minister of the Interior Manuel Valls has urged the local authorities to ban the latest show of Dieudonne (entitled "Le Mur" or "The Wall"). Here is what then happened:
The Prefet of the Préfecture of the Loire-Atlantique Department decided to ban Dieudonne's show in the city of Nantes. Now, to really understand what happened, I need to explain something here:
France has always been an amazingly diverse and multi-cultural country and the Masonic revolutionary regime in France knew from "Day 1" that it has little or no popular support. This is why the revolutionaries decided to break up traditional France into regions that they would control through the use of specially appointed representatives: the "Departments" were created in December of 1789 which made it possible for the central power in Paris to have a local representative - a "prefet" - who could over-rule any local authority and always impose the will of the central government. The "Prefecture of Loire-Atlantique" is a region also created by the French Revolutionaries to remove the historical capital of the Brittany region - Nantes - from the rest of Brittany. It is this century old mechanism of repressing the local authorities by Paris which has been used against Dieudonne.
In reaction to the ban, Dieudonne's lawyers appealed to the "juge des référés" - a special judge which does not rule on the substance of a dispute, but which can order provisional emergency measures called "ordinances" to defend the rights and freedoms of one of the parties in a dispute. In this case the judge suspended the ban imposed by the Prefect. This was a short victory for Dieudonne as the Minister of Interior Manuel Valls then lodged an emergency appeal to the "Conseil d’État" (State Council) to ban the show, which, predictably, the latter was more than happy to do. Indeed, Wikipedia defined the "Conseil d’État" as "a body of the French national government that acts both as legal adviser of the executive branch and as the supreme court for administrative justice". In other words, it is the tool used by the Executive Branch to make sure that it prevails in any legal dispute.
This would all be hilarious if it wasn't for the totally over-the-top reaction of the French government which is truly going completely apeshit over what is simply a stand up comic act. Within minutes - literally - of hearing the decision of the "juge des référés" Vals filed an emergency appeal to the State Council which itself took only minutes to issue its ban all just in time to prevent Dieudonne to perform. It is outright pathetic to see the manic hysteria which has seized the French government.
And this is now far from over. The French courts will now have to tackle with the following issues:
a) should Dieudonne be banned for his alleged "apology of hate" and "anti-Semitism" or for "threat to the public order"?
b) what should be the object of the ban: the show or the comedian?
c) can a show be banned even before it is performed?
d) is a comedian liable for what he says on stage?
e) should Dieudonne's shows be re-branded as "political meetings" and then banned as such?
f) what about his online videos? what is the point of banning a show if it can be watch on the Internet?
What absolutely everybody understands in France is that the regime is just seeking a legal figleaf to justify its political repression of a type of speech it does not like. Alas, France does have a long tradition of crushing free speech. Not only did Voltaire never say "I disagree with what you say but I will fight for your right to say it" - he himself viciously persecuted many people for the "crime" of making fun on him. And there is no such thing as the ACLU in France, nor is there a First Amendment. But the worst aspect of French political culture is its extreme polarization and intolerance whose roots go straight back to the bloody events of the French Revolution. Whether the French plutocratic elites and their government realize it or not, their hysterical attitude is definitely having a polarizing effect on the French youth which is now rallying in bigger and bigger numbers around the Dieudonne-Soral tag team while there are zero signs of popular support for the position of the Jewish organizations, the French plutocracy or the Hollande government.
What is happening is a sweet paradox: Dieudo and Soral are basically accusing the French Zionist lobby of being almighty and above the law in France. The French Zionist lobby's reaction to this accusation it to use its infinite power and above the law status to crush the free speech of Dieudo and Soral thereby proving them right. For example, the French elites categorically deny that the Zionist lobby has the power of banning somebody from appearing on TV while at the same time the entire country knows that Soral and Dieudo have been banned (before they dared to criticize the power of the French Zionist lobby both were very often seen on TV). Now even the shows which discuss and analyse the "quenelle" phenomenon are always recorded without inviting Dieudo or Soral to speak. Just like de Gaulle, Soral now speaks from London...
My biggest fear at the moment is for the physical safety of Soral and Dieudonne as I would most definitely not put it past the French elites to order their assassination. True, whether the French special units would actually execute such an order is very dubious, but the French can always call on the Israelis to do the dirty job for them, leaving the secondary task of botching the investigation to the French authorities. But then, the Kidon also has a very checkered record, to say the least, and if they screw-up this one the scandal would be absolutely huge. So the "lone, 'crazy' killer" (US favorite method) is probably the biggest threat to Dieudo and Soral. That, or a "tragic accident" (Russian favorite method).
May God protect these two men.
The Saker
Second, as I have mentioned in a previous report, Minister of the Interior Manuel Valls has urged the local authorities to ban the latest show of Dieudonne (entitled "Le Mur" or "The Wall"). Here is what then happened:
The Prefet of the Préfecture of the Loire-Atlantique Department decided to ban Dieudonne's show in the city of Nantes. Now, to really understand what happened, I need to explain something here:
France has always been an amazingly diverse and multi-cultural country and the Masonic revolutionary regime in France knew from "Day 1" that it has little or no popular support. This is why the revolutionaries decided to break up traditional France into regions that they would control through the use of specially appointed representatives: the "Departments" were created in December of 1789 which made it possible for the central power in Paris to have a local representative - a "prefet" - who could over-rule any local authority and always impose the will of the central government. The "Prefecture of Loire-Atlantique" is a region also created by the French Revolutionaries to remove the historical capital of the Brittany region - Nantes - from the rest of Brittany. It is this century old mechanism of repressing the local authorities by Paris which has been used against Dieudonne.
In reaction to the ban, Dieudonne's lawyers appealed to the "juge des référés" - a special judge which does not rule on the substance of a dispute, but which can order provisional emergency measures called "ordinances" to defend the rights and freedoms of one of the parties in a dispute. In this case the judge suspended the ban imposed by the Prefect. This was a short victory for Dieudonne as the Minister of Interior Manuel Valls then lodged an emergency appeal to the "Conseil d’État" (State Council) to ban the show, which, predictably, the latter was more than happy to do. Indeed, Wikipedia defined the "Conseil d’État" as "a body of the French national government that acts both as legal adviser of the executive branch and as the supreme court for administrative justice". In other words, it is the tool used by the Executive Branch to make sure that it prevails in any legal dispute.
This would all be hilarious if it wasn't for the totally over-the-top reaction of the French government which is truly going completely apeshit over what is simply a stand up comic act. Within minutes - literally - of hearing the decision of the "juge des référés" Vals filed an emergency appeal to the State Council which itself took only minutes to issue its ban all just in time to prevent Dieudonne to perform. It is outright pathetic to see the manic hysteria which has seized the French government.
And this is now far from over. The French courts will now have to tackle with the following issues:
a) should Dieudonne be banned for his alleged "apology of hate" and "anti-Semitism" or for "threat to the public order"?
b) what should be the object of the ban: the show or the comedian?
c) can a show be banned even before it is performed?
d) is a comedian liable for what he says on stage?
e) should Dieudonne's shows be re-branded as "political meetings" and then banned as such?
f) what about his online videos? what is the point of banning a show if it can be watch on the Internet?
What absolutely everybody understands in France is that the regime is just seeking a legal figleaf to justify its political repression of a type of speech it does not like. Alas, France does have a long tradition of crushing free speech. Not only did Voltaire never say "I disagree with what you say but I will fight for your right to say it" - he himself viciously persecuted many people for the "crime" of making fun on him. And there is no such thing as the ACLU in France, nor is there a First Amendment. But the worst aspect of French political culture is its extreme polarization and intolerance whose roots go straight back to the bloody events of the French Revolution. Whether the French plutocratic elites and their government realize it or not, their hysterical attitude is definitely having a polarizing effect on the French youth which is now rallying in bigger and bigger numbers around the Dieudonne-Soral tag team while there are zero signs of popular support for the position of the Jewish organizations, the French plutocracy or the Hollande government.
What is happening is a sweet paradox: Dieudo and Soral are basically accusing the French Zionist lobby of being almighty and above the law in France. The French Zionist lobby's reaction to this accusation it to use its infinite power and above the law status to crush the free speech of Dieudo and Soral thereby proving them right. For example, the French elites categorically deny that the Zionist lobby has the power of banning somebody from appearing on TV while at the same time the entire country knows that Soral and Dieudo have been banned (before they dared to criticize the power of the French Zionist lobby both were very often seen on TV). Now even the shows which discuss and analyse the "quenelle" phenomenon are always recorded without inviting Dieudo or Soral to speak. Just like de Gaulle, Soral now speaks from London...
My biggest fear at the moment is for the physical safety of Soral and Dieudonne as I would most definitely not put it past the French elites to order their assassination. True, whether the French special units would actually execute such an order is very dubious, but the French can always call on the Israelis to do the dirty job for them, leaving the secondary task of botching the investigation to the French authorities. But then, the Kidon also has a very checkered record, to say the least, and if they screw-up this one the scandal would be absolutely huge. So the "lone, 'crazy' killer" (US favorite method) is probably the biggest threat to Dieudo and Soral. That, or a "tragic accident" (Russian favorite method).
May God protect these two men.
The Saker
Thursday, January 9, 2014
Wednesday, January 8, 2014
Monday, January 6, 2014
"Quenelle warfare" in France - a "report from the trenches"
The warfare around the quenelle gesture is reaching a new new heights in France were representatives of the plutocratic elites are now seriously considering the following options:
a) banning the latest show of Dieudonne
b) closing down his theatre in Paris
c) jailing Dieudonne
d) making the quenelle gesture a criminal offence
and, I kid you not,
e) create a special cell with representatives of the Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Economy to bankrupt Dieudonne (this is not the official reason, but that is clearly the aim).
In the meantime, more and more people are breaking free from their zombified state and join the many thousands of people who are openly defying the state by going on record making the quenelle gesture. What is particularly distressing for the doubleplusgoodthinking French elites is that the "quenelle movement" achieved something which the elites claimed as an objective and which now turn into a true nightmare for them: it unites Whites, Blacks, Arabs, immigrants, natives, Papists, Muslims, agnostics, young, old, male, female - you name it, they have it. This is truly a mass grass-roots phenomenon which knows, quite literally, no barriers. Can I just give you one example? Alain Soral made is latest Internet video in a Tshirt sent to him by the French Prime Minister's personal protection service! Yes, even there :-)
Anyway, here are a few videos "from the trenches" which really do not need translation:
First, Bertrand Delanoé, lapsed Freemason, lapsed Papist, current homosexual, high-raking apparatchik of the French Socialist Party and current Mayor of the City of Paris: (make sure to listen to the part where Bertrand goes hysterical)
Then some proud quenelle making youth:
No doubt, there is much more to come, much much more, in the near future.
I will keep you posted :-)
Reporting from the frontlines of the "quenelle wars",
(Cheers!)
The Saker
a) banning the latest show of Dieudonne
b) closing down his theatre in Paris
c) jailing Dieudonne
d) making the quenelle gesture a criminal offence
and, I kid you not,
e) create a special cell with representatives of the Ministry of Justice, Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Economy to bankrupt Dieudonne (this is not the official reason, but that is clearly the aim).
In the meantime, more and more people are breaking free from their zombified state and join the many thousands of people who are openly defying the state by going on record making the quenelle gesture. What is particularly distressing for the doubleplusgoodthinking French elites is that the "quenelle movement" achieved something which the elites claimed as an objective and which now turn into a true nightmare for them: it unites Whites, Blacks, Arabs, immigrants, natives, Papists, Muslims, agnostics, young, old, male, female - you name it, they have it. This is truly a mass grass-roots phenomenon which knows, quite literally, no barriers. Can I just give you one example? Alain Soral made is latest Internet video in a Tshirt sent to him by the French Prime Minister's personal protection service! Yes, even there :-)
Anyway, here are a few videos "from the trenches" which really do not need translation:
First, Bertrand Delanoé, lapsed Freemason, lapsed Papist, current homosexual, high-raking apparatchik of the French Socialist Party and current Mayor of the City of Paris: (make sure to listen to the part where Bertrand goes hysterical)
Then some proud quenelle making youth:
No doubt, there is much more to come, much much more, in the near future.
I will keep you posted :-)
Reporting from the frontlines of the "quenelle wars",
(Cheers!)
The Saker
Friday, January 3, 2014
Beautiful documentary about young women in the Syrian NDF
Beautiful documentary about young women in the Syrian NDF:
A weekly occurrence in Dagestan: anti-terrorist operations
In my recent post about the bombings in Volgograd I wrote the following:
At the end of the video some of the weapons found inside the appartment are shown.
Over the past year I have seen many such videos on Russian TV daily news shows and they all pretty much go along the same scenario. A much less frequent scenario, but which also happens every few months or so, is that a terrorist group is spotted somewhere in the mountains and a multi-agency search and destroy mission is arranged between the local police, the special police, elements of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Spetsnaz forces from the FSB (the military Spetsnaz GRU typically does not participate in such operations). This is a much more dangerous operations and the terrorists often succeed in wounding or even killing a few security agents before being killed themselves.
As for the terrorists, they typically either kill cops on checkpoints on plant a car-bomb near a police station or court building. From time to time they like to kill a local official or a local imam who dares to openly disapprove of their actions. The vast majority of these attacks are executed inside Dagestan although some reach into the othe parts of southern Russia, or even further.
This is the sad reality of life in Dagestan today were people are trying to live their daily lives against a background of apparently neverending security operations and while the security services clearly have the upper hand, at least so far, the psychological and economic toll on the republic is terrible even if relatively few Dagestanis are themselves direct victims of this slow, creeping war between Wahabi terrorists and the security agencies. Just imagine having to go to school, shopping or to work in a place where you might at any time find yourself near a bombing or a security operation.
A few words about the terrorists now. They are also rather typical. Yesterday, three bodies were found after the assault, one has yet to be identified, but the two others are well known to the security services. They are Marat Shikhshaitov, born in 1987, he left his wife and three kids to join the Wahabi underground in 2012 where he participated several bombings and common criminal operations, and Aisha Idigova, born in 1986, she is the widow of another well-known terrorist - Ruslan Magometov - who was killed in 2006 by the security forces during an operation similar to the one which took place yesterday.
In a tactical sense the security forces has scored another "victory": three dangerous terrorists have been killed, no civilians or security forces were hurt. But on a strategic level, this is yet another small defeat for Dagestan because it further strenghthens the image of Dagestan as a hotbed of terrorism and extremism. What is particularly worriesome is that there is no end in sight for all the reasons I mentioned in my previous post and which can be summed up by saying "Dagestan is not Chechnia". There really is no local solution, no Dagestani Kadyrov, and the only possible 'solution' would be to do almost the exact opposite of what has been done in Chechnia - instead of giving Dagestan a maximal degree of independence and autonomy, the Kremlin could declare martial law, suspend all the local authorites, flood the republic with security forces and basically reorganize all of Dagestani society, in particular the power structures, along non-ethic lines. At least that is the theoretical option. To what degree this is actually a realistic plan is very much debated with a lot of very smart and well informed observers resolutely opposed to such a "solution". I am personally also rather dubious about such an approach.
The other solution is to keep going on the current course and just hope that a day will come when the Dagestanis will get really fed up with what is happening now. And when I say "the Dagestanis" I don't mean a majority simply because a majority is *already* fed up. No, I mean an overwhelming super-majority which would demand that the various local business and ethnic elites get together and agree to take action. I believe that such an effort has to be primarily the responsabilty and initiative of the local authorities and not of the Federal Center. All that the latter can do is provide support and ressources.
Whether such a change in the Dagestani society will happen I don't know. Nor can I predict, even in general terms, how long it would take. All I know is that for the foreseeable future real change is unlikely and that the weekly reports from Dagestan about more terrorist being killed by securty forces will continue.
The Saker
The Dagestani terrorists have learned the lessons of Chechnia well, and they are never trying to hold on to any territory or to create some kind of Wahabi statelet in Dagestan: quite to the contrary, day after day after day, the security forces engage the Dagestani terrorists who each time end up either captured or dead (mostly the latter). The reason for that is obvious: the Dagestani terrorists are weak and they cannot take on even the local cops. But they are just strong enough to strap explosives on some young man or woman and send them to blow themselves up on a bus or train station.The footage I want to show here today is a typical example of an almost weekly occurrence in Dagestan: the security forces are tipped-off by local people (most Dagestanis absolutely *hate* terrorists) and the show up in the dark of night to quietly evacuate all the inhabitants of the building except the suspected terrorists. As dawn breaks, the security forces call the terrorists and offer them to surrender. When the latter typically refuse, their relatives are given the opportunity to talk to them with the hope that they will let go those who do not want to die, or who cannot make the decision. In today's video you see a grandmother talking to her daughter who refuses to surrender but who accepts to have the grandmother take away the her grand-daughter. Finally, the security forces launch an assault on the terrorists and kill them all. Here is the footage of what occured yesterday in the city of Khasavyurt:
At the end of the video some of the weapons found inside the appartment are shown.
 |
| Marat Shikhshaitov |
As for the terrorists, they typically either kill cops on checkpoints on plant a car-bomb near a police station or court building. From time to time they like to kill a local official or a local imam who dares to openly disapprove of their actions. The vast majority of these attacks are executed inside Dagestan although some reach into the othe parts of southern Russia, or even further.
 |
| Aisha Idigova |
A few words about the terrorists now. They are also rather typical. Yesterday, three bodies were found after the assault, one has yet to be identified, but the two others are well known to the security services. They are Marat Shikhshaitov, born in 1987, he left his wife and three kids to join the Wahabi underground in 2012 where he participated several bombings and common criminal operations, and Aisha Idigova, born in 1986, she is the widow of another well-known terrorist - Ruslan Magometov - who was killed in 2006 by the security forces during an operation similar to the one which took place yesterday.
In a tactical sense the security forces has scored another "victory": three dangerous terrorists have been killed, no civilians or security forces were hurt. But on a strategic level, this is yet another small defeat for Dagestan because it further strenghthens the image of Dagestan as a hotbed of terrorism and extremism. What is particularly worriesome is that there is no end in sight for all the reasons I mentioned in my previous post and which can be summed up by saying "Dagestan is not Chechnia". There really is no local solution, no Dagestani Kadyrov, and the only possible 'solution' would be to do almost the exact opposite of what has been done in Chechnia - instead of giving Dagestan a maximal degree of independence and autonomy, the Kremlin could declare martial law, suspend all the local authorites, flood the republic with security forces and basically reorganize all of Dagestani society, in particular the power structures, along non-ethic lines. At least that is the theoretical option. To what degree this is actually a realistic plan is very much debated with a lot of very smart and well informed observers resolutely opposed to such a "solution". I am personally also rather dubious about such an approach.
The other solution is to keep going on the current course and just hope that a day will come when the Dagestanis will get really fed up with what is happening now. And when I say "the Dagestanis" I don't mean a majority simply because a majority is *already* fed up. No, I mean an overwhelming super-majority which would demand that the various local business and ethnic elites get together and agree to take action. I believe that such an effort has to be primarily the responsabilty and initiative of the local authorities and not of the Federal Center. All that the latter can do is provide support and ressources.
Whether such a change in the Dagestani society will happen I don't know. Nor can I predict, even in general terms, how long it would take. All I know is that for the foreseeable future real change is unlikely and that the weekly reports from Dagestan about more terrorist being killed by securty forces will continue.
The Saker
Thursday, January 2, 2014
La "quenelle" now in music!! (in French with English subs)
I have recently written about the amazing (and hilarious) scandal taking place in France, and slowly in the rest of Europe, around the "quenelle" (For those of you who missed it, you can get the background info here). I will spare you all the recent political developments, but let's just say that the anti-quenelle hysteria and that the French Minister of Internal Affairs is considering making the gesture illegal (he claims that it is a "reverse Nazi salute sodomizing the victims of the Shoah" I kid you not) along with the shows of French humorist Dieudonne who did not invent the quenelle, but who made it popular as a sign of defiance against the French plutocratic elites. Well, now, the French are putting the quenelle into music, with absolutely fantastic results.
This time, Dieudo took the music of a famous French song called "le chant des partisans" (a song from the French resistance to the Nazi occupation during WWII) and added his own lyrics: "François la sens-tu qui se glisse dans ton cul, la quenelle..." (François - he means François Hollande, the current President of France - do you feel it sliding up you ass, the quenelle...).
Soon, another version appeared, much more sophisticated, based on the beautiful song by Charles Aznavour "La Bohème" (check it out here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzvqwJaUcuY) and they made it into this:
This is huge, not only because this is very funny and well done, but because humor is an absolutely devastating political weapon which is driving the French authorities absolutely up the wall.
In the meantime, the French courts have banned Alain Soral - who is also a book editor - from publishing 5 books which other publishers have published and who are not banned by this ruling to continue doing so. To make things even better, the French courts have also upheld the right of the CRIF (the French version of the US AIPAC to demand that certain passages of books deemed "anti-Semitic" be expunged. In reaction to that, Alain Soral has announced that he plans to publish the four Holy Gospels just to dare the French courts and AIPAC to demand that the "anti-Semitic" passages from the Holy Gospels also be edited or expunged.
In the meantime, gangs of Jewish youths have assaulted various individuals who dared to publish a photo of themselves making the quenelle. There is no doubt in my mind that they will be released with a minor slap on the wrist, but what is interesting here is that when news like that makes it to the French Internet (and sometimes even to a few TV stations), it only makes the quenelle even more popular.
The serious bottom line here is that while Dieudonne is making the French authorities ban a gesture like the quenelle or the use of the pineapple fruit for political purposes, Alain Soral is now daring them to censor the New Testament. Sounds too ridiculous to be true? Well, as somebody who follows the French news on a daily basis I assure you that it is 100% real and that all this frankly ridiculous business is a "big deal" in France.
And even beyond that: a Belgian politician recently made a quenelle at the end of his speech in Parliament while in Switzerland firefighters were fired for doing the same gesture in uniform. Clearly, the quenelle is now becoming popular in the rest of the French-speaking world and has the potential to "infect" regions of North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, Canada, the Mashrek, etc.
I have to say that I love the French for their wonderful attitude of defiance and insubordination to the their elites - absolutely non-violent, based on humor, and totally disrespectful.
As for Dieudonne and Soral, call me paranoid if you want, but I fear for their lives. Both have already been assaulted several times by Israeli and Jewish gangs of thugs, and both know that they - and their families - are in danger. So far, being both tough and smart, they survived all the assaults, but sooner or later some crazed Zionist will come at them with a gun.
The Saker
This time, Dieudo took the music of a famous French song called "le chant des partisans" (a song from the French resistance to the Nazi occupation during WWII) and added his own lyrics: "François la sens-tu qui se glisse dans ton cul, la quenelle..." (François - he means François Hollande, the current President of France - do you feel it sliding up you ass, the quenelle...).
Soon, another version appeared, much more sophisticated, based on the beautiful song by Charles Aznavour "La Bohème" (check it out here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pzvqwJaUcuY) and they made it into this:
This is huge, not only because this is very funny and well done, but because humor is an absolutely devastating political weapon which is driving the French authorities absolutely up the wall.
In the meantime, the French courts have banned Alain Soral - who is also a book editor - from publishing 5 books which other publishers have published and who are not banned by this ruling to continue doing so. To make things even better, the French courts have also upheld the right of the CRIF (the French version of the US AIPAC to demand that certain passages of books deemed "anti-Semitic" be expunged. In reaction to that, Alain Soral has announced that he plans to publish the four Holy Gospels just to dare the French courts and AIPAC to demand that the "anti-Semitic" passages from the Holy Gospels also be edited or expunged.
In the meantime, gangs of Jewish youths have assaulted various individuals who dared to publish a photo of themselves making the quenelle. There is no doubt in my mind that they will be released with a minor slap on the wrist, but what is interesting here is that when news like that makes it to the French Internet (and sometimes even to a few TV stations), it only makes the quenelle even more popular.
The serious bottom line here is that while Dieudonne is making the French authorities ban a gesture like the quenelle or the use of the pineapple fruit for political purposes, Alain Soral is now daring them to censor the New Testament. Sounds too ridiculous to be true? Well, as somebody who follows the French news on a daily basis I assure you that it is 100% real and that all this frankly ridiculous business is a "big deal" in France.
And even beyond that: a Belgian politician recently made a quenelle at the end of his speech in Parliament while in Switzerland firefighters were fired for doing the same gesture in uniform. Clearly, the quenelle is now becoming popular in the rest of the French-speaking world and has the potential to "infect" regions of North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, Canada, the Mashrek, etc.
I have to say that I love the French for their wonderful attitude of defiance and insubordination to the their elites - absolutely non-violent, based on humor, and totally disrespectful.
As for Dieudonne and Soral, call me paranoid if you want, but I fear for their lives. Both have already been assaulted several times by Israeli and Jewish gangs of thugs, and both know that they - and their families - are in danger. So far, being both tough and smart, they survived all the assaults, but sooner or later some crazed Zionist will come at them with a gun.
The Saker
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