The Vineyard of the Saker

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Is Russia throwing in the towel for Assad?

The short answer is "no!". However,

There are clear signs of two things happening:

a) Russian politicians and decision makers have different views about the situation in Syria. Some think that Assad will lose, while others think that government forces have inflicted serious losses on the insurgency.

Keep in mind: differences in opinion between experts do NOT AT ALL mean a change in policies. Russia's policy towards Syria is one based on principles and not one which will change depending on circumstances. Russia has clearly said that it will never allow a "Libya #2" in Syria. That is a principled position which in itself does not secure an outcome, only excludes a specific scenario.

b) The Kremlin is clearly working on contingency plans which include a possible evacuation of Russian citizens should the insurgency present an even bigger threat to Russian nationals.

Keep in mind: several Russian (and Ukrainian) nationals have been kidnapped by the insurgents which, in a typical Wahabi-thug manner, are now demanding a ransom in US dollars. This is an ominous development which the Kremlin cannot ignore. Again, contingency plans do NOT AT ALL mean a change in policies. To take all the necessary measures to protect its nationals is an inherent obligation of any state and not an original policy.

In the past I wrote several posts to the effect that the "Russians are not coming" (to rescue Assad) and now I have to post again saying that "the Russians are not leaving either"...

M. K. Bhadrakumar, whom I respect a lot and whom I consider a very good expert, has, this time, gotten it fundamentally wrong when he says that Russia changes tack on Syria. Russian policy on Syria has not changed one bit: Russia will oppose the US/NATO/Wahabi war on Syria by all political means, Russia will remain open to a negotiated political solution as long as it approved by the UN Security Council and Russia reserves the right to take any action needed in defense of its nationals. That's it - no more, no less.

Frankly, I find this policy rather simple, clear and rational and I don't see why so many experts are zig-zagging between predictions of "Russia sends its Navy to stop NATO's aggression against Syria" to "Russia has given up on Syria" or "Russia and US in secret deal over Assad".

Fundamentally, Russia is using the power that it has (veto at the UNSC) and stays away from pretending to use the power it does not have (military intervention). By the way, this is also exactly what China is doing, all for the same reasons, yet nobody is constantly speaking about Chinese zig-zags on China. Why? Because China is not the ex-Soviet Union with global ambitions.

This is the key thing which so many experts simply cannot get used to: Russia is not a global power anymore. In fact, it has absolutely no desire to become one again. Russia is, of course, a major power which, in theory, could challenge the USA, just like China could. However, both Russia and China could only do that a great, immense, risk for themselves.

And then there is the time factor: both Russia and China fully realize that they, even more than the other BRICS countries, have time on their side and that each passing year makes them stronger. The USA, in contrast, is globally overextended, burdened by a debt it will never pay, hated world wide, and the only thing which still keeps it going is the fact that the rest of the planet is too afraid of the US military to openly refuse to use the US dollar as a currency reserve and to pay for its energy. The US is also socially dysfunctional, culturally sterile, militarily over-extended, economically de-industrialized, and politically "neo-feudal" (1% rule over 99% of serfs). Sooner or later the USA will become weak enough to make it possible for any major power, including Russia or China, to openly defy it, but while it is still powerful but weakening it is an extremely dangerous foe which should not be under-estimated. This is why Russia, along with the other regional powers on the planet, will continue to carefully wait for the right time and avoid any sudden move which would compromise all that it has achieved in the past 12 years.

One more thing: the EU. I would argue that the current condition of the EU is even worse than the one of the USA. Russian politicians look at the EU in total disgust. Just yesterday I was listening to one Russian expert saying that all that the EU had to offer was a "never ending gay-pride parade combined with a massive Maghrebization of Africanization of its society". That is not a bad way to put it. The EU, as a political project, is dying, and the European society arguable even more dysfunctional than the US one. The likes of Sarkozy and Merkel can delude themselves by playing big power politics, but the fact that French Rafales were the first to bomb Libya will change exactly nothing to prevent the French society from dying from the truly cataclysmic influx of immigrants, most of which come from the Maghreb. From Estonia to Portugal and from Bulgaria to Iceland, Europe is nothing more than a US colony, totally ruined by a corrupt political elite, which is sinking as fast as the Titanic did, and whose orchestra (corporate media) is still playing its happy ballroom music.

But "dying" and "dead" are very different things. The EU is still a huge market, and the EU elites have a lot of soft power to throw around, much more than Russia. And this is why at least for the time being, Russia will try to avoid openly antagonizing the EU.

I hope that the above sheds some light on Russia's policies in general and Russia's policies towards Syria in particular. If you have any questions, opinions or comments, please feel free to post them here.

The Saker

Russian warships set sail to Mediterranean amid possible Syria evacuation

RT reports:

The Russian Navy has sent five ships to the Mediterranean Sea to replace the region’s existing fleet. The move comes after the foreign ministry said it may call for the evacuation of Russian citizens in Syria if the government in Damascus falls.

Three warships and two support ships of the Russian Baltic Fleet are set to join the Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean.

Frigate Yaroslav Mudri

The Neustrashimyy-class frigate Yaroslav Mudri and landing ships Kaliningrad and Aleksandr Shabalin, accompanied by a towboat and a tanker ship, have set sail from their base in Baltiysk, the defense ministry announced on Tuesday. Their mission includes exercises in air defense, anti-ship warfare and anti-submarine warfare, the Navy statement said.

The vessels will replace the ships of the Baltic Fleet, which have been patrolling the Eastern Mediterranean since November.

The Russian military did not elaborate on whether the fleet would visit the Syrian port of Tartus, where the Russian Navy maintains a support base.

Landing ship Aleksandr Shabalin

The warships are being deployed as a contingency for the possible evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria, a source in the Navy told Interfax news agency. The vessels could transport Russian nationals from the warzone to Russia’s Black Sea ports, the source said.

Last week, a senior foreign ministry official confirmed that Russia has prepared a plan to evacuate its citizens from Syria, which will be implemented if the situation there deteriorates further. The plan covers not only the staff of the Russian embassy in Damascus, but also several thousand Russian civilians living in the country, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said.

Russian citizens may be evacuated from Syria if Damascus loses more territory to the rebel fighters. The comments were interpreted by Washington as a sign of Russia changing its position on the Syrian conflict, but Moscow quickly denied this claim.

Saturday, December 15, 2012

What are the folks at the BBC smoking...

Good old BBC - what would the world do without this paragon of professional journalism and impartiality?!

Not.

Check out how the BBC reported about the (illegal) demonstration which the so-called "non-system opposition" (aka "those who could not even get a single deputy elected into the Duma") organized today:

Impressive crowd, no? In the "hundreds" according to the article. And just to make sure that anybody doubting the size of this demonstration would not think that it lacked popular support, the reporter added that these demonstrators were "braving freezing temperatures". And just to add some extra weight to it all, we are informed that this rally was one of "several" and "nationwide" which took place. It would be legitimate to assume that, say, at least 10-15 major Russian cities saw demonstrations. Finally, we are told that the police "broke up" the demonstration and that "opposition leaders" were arrested.

Scary, no?

Clearly, Putin is mercilessly crushing the legitimate aspirations to democracy and freedom of the Russian people and his goon cops are on a repressive rampage. Is the revolution is scheduled for tomorrow morning?

Hardly.

First, take a look at the Moscow demonstration on a photo taken from above the square:

(click for full size)

The truth is that the demonstration was minuscule. Second, this was a sunny winter day no worse in any way than what Moscovites live with every day of their winter - there was nothing to "brave" by Russian standards.

Furthermore, the folks represented here were not, repeat *NOT*, the "opposition". The "opposition" in Russia is composed of three parties: the Communists, the LDPR and the Just Russia parties. These parties made it into the Duma and are the real opposition. What we saw on the streets are folks representing something in the range of one, maybe two, percent of the population. Mostly, they represent themselves and their Anglosaxon sponsors and bosses.

As for the rally being banned, you can see for yourself that it is smack in the middle of a square with traffic on all sides, and this is why the Moscow authorities tried for weeks to convince the organizers that this was a bad place and that traffic would be disrupted and the demonstrators endangered. The organizers of the rally replied that this was the Lubianka square, where the KGB headquarters had been in the Soviet times and were the current FSB has its official headquarters; furthermore, there is a monument to the victims of Soviet repressions there. The city authorities *did* authorize the demonstrators to place flowers at the monument, but asked them to then keep on walking in order to avoid creating a traffic jam.

Some demonstrators complied and freely left, some refused and were detained long enough to remove them from the square.

And that is all the "repression" which took place.

Makes me wonder what the folks at the BBC are smoking...

The Saker

Friday, December 14, 2012

Insurgents in Syria burn a Shia mosque and an Armenian church

On YouTube one of their supporters also added this heartfelt message:

"Fuck bashar and his slut mother he destroyed all of syria with the help of kuffar shia irani pigs and russian communist atheist bastards but our mujahdeen bros will now rid syria of bashar bastard and we will have an islamic country where there will be no alchoal drugs and prostitutes everywhere it will be a islamic laws not wester laws u shia kuffar pigs time to pay now for killing thousands of sunni muslims ur god khomeni is in hell roting and u all pieces of scum will join him inshallah"

Here is another video where the same folks burn down an Armenian church:

I think that these videos, combined with the rather unambiguous message, make the future these insurgents plan for Syria pretty clear.

The Saker

Thursday, December 13, 2012

BBC finally caves in: Litvinenko was a paid MI6 agent

Anybody who knew anything about the entire Litvinenko saga knew that already, but now even the BBC is reporting it: Litvinenko was a paid MI6 agent.

Now let's see how long it will take the BBC to find out what country's intelligence service is known to have used Polonium to kill undesirable people?

The Saker

Bosnia v5, Chechnia v4, Kosovo v3, Libya v2, Syria v1

This could have been footage made in Bosnia, Chechnia, Kosovo or Libya, but it happens to have been made in Syria. Same faces, same crazed expression, same murderous determination - this is the face of US-sponsored Wahabi Islam and this is what the so-called "friends of Syria" are trying to put into power in Damascus.

Frankly, and in a very naive way, when I listen to these lunatics I have visions of Russian Il-76MDs bringing a few divisions of Paratroopers to free Syria from these murderous thugs. Of course, this is not going to happen and, frankly, I don't even really think that it should happen since Russia has, of course, no business at all policing the planet. And yet, I feel heartbroken for the Syrian people whose future under the rule of this unholy NATO-Wahabi alliance looks outright terrible.

Judge for yourself by listening to the candid ravings of these madmen:

Syrian opposition victory possible, but at an absolutely unacceptable price – Moscow

RT reports:

Moscow has admitted the possibility that the Syrian opposition may emerge victorious as government forces continue to lose more territory as the conflict rages on, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said.

“We must face the facts: the current tendency shows that the government is progressively losing control over an increasing part of the territory,'' Bogdanov told the Public Chamber. “An opposition victory can't be ruled out."

The Deputy Foreign Minister warned that Syria would most likely suffer heavy casualties from the ensuing violence.

"The fighting will become even more intense, and (Syria) will lose tens of thousands and, perhaps, hundreds of thousands of civilians,'' he warned. "If such a price for the removal of the president seems acceptable to you, what can we do? We, of course, consider it absolutely unacceptable.''

Other Russian officials also weighed in on the deteriorating situation in Syria following the Friends of Syria meeting, which was held in Marrakesh, Morocco, on Wednesday. The delegates officially recognized the ‘National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces’ as the only representative of the Syrian people.

Alexei Pushkov, the State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman, believes the decision makes the prospects for a peaceful resolution to the conflict exceedingly grim.

"Recognition of the Syrian opposition as ‘legitimate’ authorities by the ‘Friends of Syria’ gives up on any attempts to find a political solution. The only option now is war," Pushkov wrote on his Twitter account on Thursday.

Many Russian diplomats view this latest development as a major setback in the Syrian conflict, arguing that the newly recognized coalition does not adequately represent the political will of the Syrian people.

Pushkov then hinted at what could transpire in the event that the militants resort to violence against Russian consulate officials and civilians in the region.

"Syrian militants have threatened to attack the embassies of Russia and Ukraine in Damascus to ‘take care of’ the Russians. The US sends special operations forces in such cases," he warned.

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said recognition of the opposition coalition hinders efforts to establish a smooth political transition in Syria.

"As the coalition has been recognized as the only legitimate representative, it seems that the United States decided to place all bets on the armed victory of this very national coalition," Lavrov said.

Moscow, which warned its western partners that “Syria is not Libya,” is fiercely opposed to any outside military interference in the conflict.

Syrian rebels set to execute Ukrainian journalist

RT reports:

NGOs are urging Syrian rebels to release a Ukrainian journalist, Anhar Kochneva, who is set to be executed Thursday. Meanwhile the group behind the kidnapping warned it would now target all Russians, Ukrainians and Iranians on Syrian soil.

The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ), ARTICLE 19, the International Press Institute and Reporters Without Borders issued a joint statement expressing deep concern about Kochneva’s life and urging the leadership of the Free Syrian Army and of the Syrian Opposition Coalition to ensure that the journalist is safe and set free.

The groups also called on the French, British and US governments, as well as the European Union to work with the Syrian opposition to facilitate her release.

Kochneva, who has reported critically about the Syrian rebels for Russian and Ukrainian news outlets, was captured in the beginning of October near the restive city of Homs. The kidnappers, allegedly members of the Free Syrian Army, threatened to kill her on December 13 if a US$ 50 million ransom is not paid.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian authorities urged Damascus to work more actively to help free the journalist. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry’s spokesman Aleksandr Dikusarov said that Kiev expects “concrete results” in attempts to release her.

In response to the Ukrainian demands, Kochneva’s kidnappers posted a video in which they threatened to target the embassies of Ukraine, Russia, as well as all Russians, Ukrainians and Iranians in Syria.

“We urge not to let a single Russian, Ukrainian or Iranian alive out of Syria,” the rebels said in the video, aired by Ukrainian news channel Ukraina.

The rebels label Kochneva a spy, claiming that she was carrying arms and worked as an interpreter for the Russian officers.

The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry did not issue comment on the latest video, saying its authenticity cannot be verified, according to Ukraina news channel.

A month after the kidnapping, a video message from Kochneva was published online in which she appealed to the Embassies of Ukraine and Russia, as well as the Syrian government, to meet the demands of the kidnappers.

On the 28 November, in the second video, Kochneva read a text in Arabic admitting to having participated in the fighting, working as a military interpreter with Syrian and Russian officers.

CPJ, ARTICLE 19, the International Press Institute and Reporters Without Borders doubt the objectiveness of these videos. “We are deeply concerned that in both video appeals the journalist seems to be speaking under pressure,” they said in their statement released on Wednesday.

Photo from Anhar Kochneva’s Facebook account

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

The Syrian chemical weapons canard - a preparation for a false flag?

When all the nonsense about the Syrians "combining the precursors of their binary chemical weapons" began I dismissed it all as the usual imperial demonization of the latest "new Hitler", but now this entire topic is taking on a more ignominious character because the Israelis and the Americans are now openly threatening some kind of "consequences" if "Assad uses his chemical weapons against his people". Some are also mentioning the risk of the insurgents getting their hands on government chemical weapons stores.

Since Syria refused to sign the CWC (because Israel had WMDs) it is really impossible to know what kind of weapons Syria might have, but I think that it is not unreasonable to assume that the Syrian chemical weapons program would be more or less on par with what Iraq had under Saddam Hussein: Sarin, Tabun, VX, and mustard gas combined with many possible delivery systems. If true, this is all very bad news, not because Assad is about to gas his own population, but because of the fantastic false flag potential such a wide variety of weapons creates.

First, let me immediately dismiss the likelihood of the use of chemical weapons by government forces on the insurgency. With the possible exception of chemical hand grenades, I don't see how the government forces could use their chemical weapons against an urban insurgency. Besides, chemical weapons are inherently difficult to use, and it is impossible to conceal the fact that they were engaged. Since Assad is quite aware of the current propaganda and since he shows no signs of being insane, I would consider the possibility of the regime using chemical weapons as pretty much non-existent.

But the crazed Jihadis? Oh yes, these guys are totally capable of using such weapons, not only against the Syrian government forces, but also against the general population or even their own forces and then lay the blame on Assad.

Furthermore, the US and NATO could easily arrange for another Markale or Racak false flag "massacre" and fire a few chemical rounds somewhere close to an al-Jazeera TV crew, say close to a group of refugees feeling to the Turkish border.

The US, NATO and Israel have a long and "distinguished" history of false flag operations - from Gladio, to the USS Liberty, to Operation Northwoods, to the USS Maine, to Markale to Racak to, of course, 9/11 and many others - and they have never had to pay a meaningful political price for engaging in such practices.

In the meantime, the Jihadis have resumed an all time favorite custom of theirs: beheading on video under the exalted screams of "Allahu Akbar".

They got away with such practices in Bosnia, but it did cost some a little bit of political embarrassment in Chechnia, in particular when they murdered some Anglos, of course, and now it is likely to again cause them only minor PR problems. All in all, the West has become used to being the patron for bloodthirsty psychopaths and while such videos might create some unease, it is not going to really influence anybody. Expect more of the same, only worse.

The Saker

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

This is becoming boooooring

Syrian WMD now. Nevermind that the only case of use of chemical weapons "against his own people" was by Saddam under the high patronage of, what else, the USA. Nevermind that it is also nonsense. Nevermind that it would make no sense.

The US "patriotic crowd" seems to be buying this one too...

Monday, December 3, 2012

Syria - a rather unexpected and optimistic scenario?

Thierry Meyssan is a complicated source to rate. On one hand, he is a very well informed person and he has to be credited with being one of the first people to raise doubts about the 9/11 events. But I also recall Meyssan sometimes mistaking his hopes for facts, and some of his analyses are superficial. Anyway, he is in Syria now (he is very pro-regime), and he recently reported a version of events there which I find interesting and I would like to pass it on to you.

According to Meyssan, the recent Internet and phone shutdown in Syria was part of a government plan to force the insurgents to use their satellite phones, thereby revealing their position. Meyssan claims that this tactic has been very effective and that the government forces were able to kill many insurgents, in particular those affiliated with al-Qaeda. At the same time, Meyssan also reports that the insurgency has increased its pace of operations.

Meyssan claims that all these events reflect the attempts of both parties to the conflict to position themselves in the best possibly situation before negotiations which, according to Meyssan, will happen in February.

Meyssan claims that nothing will happen until the members of the new Obama Administration are fully sworn in. Then, according to Meyssan, real negotiations will happen at the UN with eventually a deployment of UN forces in Syria in the course of March 2013. The most interesting part of his version is that he claims that the bulk of these UN troops will be composed of soldiers from the CSTO.

Knowing the absolute *loathing* that the US and NATO have for the CSTO (with which they even refuse any formal contacts), this is very hard to imagine. A far more likely version, in my opinion, would be the deployment of forces Arab League (as predicted by Russian experts). And yet, Meyssan is basing is version of events on what he believes is an inevitable victory of the government forces which the West will want to avoid.

I am not at all sure that time is in the government's favor. The only credible reason for that is, according to what I have heard, the fact that most of the population is starting to really fear and hate the crazy Jihadis in the insurgency who are, as usual, leaving a trail of atrocities in their wake.

Whatever may be the case, we might see the outlines of a possible solution: a *mix* of Arab League and CSTO forces?

What is sure is that Russia will never allow another Bosnia or Kosovo to happen. If, and that is a big "if", a UN peacekeeping operation is approved by the UNSC Russia (and probably China) will definitely make sure that this will not turn into a cover for an invasion of Syria (like what NATO did in Croatia and Bosnia).

This is a very optimistic scenario and I am, by nature and by trade, a rather pessimistic person. Over time, pessimists also tend to be proven right. So I am passing to you this rather optimistic version with some reluctance - caveat emptor.

The Saker

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Partial list of Russian NGO financed from abroad

Do you remember the panic which spread recently among Russian non-government organizations when Putin passed a new law forcing any NGO which is financed from abroad to register as a "foreign agent"?

Russian bloggers have now compiled an initial list of these organizations. Again, this is not an official list, only one compiled by savvy Russian bloggers who will now submit this list to the Russian security agencies. Still, the list is very interesting, and I invite you to carefully parse it to get a feel for the scope of the US infiltration of the Russian society (since the list is long, I used google-translate to translate the names of the organizations).

The Saker

PS:

original source link in Russian: http://lenin-kerrigan.livejournal.com/486193.htmlhttp://lenin-kerrigan.livejournal.com/486193.html
google translated original source link: http://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&u=http%3A%2F%2Flenin-kerrigan.livejournal.com%2F486193.html&act=url
-------
List of "Russian" NGOs financed by the USA:

Voice of Beslan committee

http://www.golosbeslana.ru/

golosbeslana@gmail.com

8-906-494-97-98

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Friday, December 14, 2012

Thursday, December 13, 2012

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Monday, December 3, 2012

Sunday, December 2, 2012

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