Dmitri Rogozin interviewed by Vladimir Soloviev

Dear friends,

Today, thanks to the fantastic work of the Saker Community [English Transcription & Translation: Marina (Russian Saker), Katya (Oceania Saker) & CG (Russian Saker) Editing & Production: Augmented Ether (Oceania Saker)] I can share with you a most interesting interview of Dmitri Rogozin, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Head of the Military-Industrial Commission, Special Envoy of the President and one of the most interesting and influential representatives of the "Eurasian Sovereignists" and the man who, one day, could succeed Vladimir Putin.  Rogozin is absolutely hated by the Atlantic Sovereignists and by the AngloZionist Empire. 

This interview is important because it shows what Russia is really doing while keeping up the pretense of "partnership" with the AngloZionist Empire: preparing for war while hoping that it can be avoided.  In this interview, Rogozin speaks to a domestic audience in one of the most popular shows on Russian TV.  Thanks to the Saker Community you will now see the Russia which the MSM never shows you and the one which frightens the Empire so much.

Enjoy!!

The Saker

Why Ukraine Will Never Retake Crimea

Written especially for Russia Insider

The Ukrainian Defense Minister Valerii Geletei is hardly a credible figure.

Not only did he recently declare that Russia had threatened the Ukraine with nuclear strikes, he even told a Ukrainian journalist that Russia had already executed two tactical nuclear strikes on the city of Lugansk (apparently to explain why the Ukrainian forces had to retreat from there). The Junta later denied the story and blamed it on the journalist who first published it.

Despite these antics, Geletei nonetheless caught the world's attention when he promised the Ukrainian Rada that the Ukraine would retake Crimea and organize a victory parade in Sevastopol. The Rada (Ukraine's parliament) greeted that promise with a standing ovation.

The truth is that this will never happen. Here is why:

By 2020 Russia will have completed the following defense plan:

• 86.7 billion rubles will be spend to modernize the Black Sea Fleet. Modernization plans include the deployment of ultra-modern Project 11356 frigates and top of the line Project 636.3 diesel-electric attack submarines.
• A separate army group, similar to the one in Kaliningrad, will be formed and a bomber base will be created. The ground forces component will include one Air-Assault brigade, one Spetsnaz brigade, one Naval Infantry brigade and one Motor-Rifle brigade. Earlier, other sources spoke of one or two Airborne brigades, two or three Motor-Rifle brigades and one Tank brigades.
• The Russian Air Force plans to deploy Tupolev Tu-22M3 “Backfire” bombers in Crimea which will be able to not only defend Crimea from any threat from the sea, but also destroy key components of the the US/NATO anti-ballistic missile system now deployed in southern Europe.
• Finally, Crimea will be defended by coastal defense missiles, air defense systems and anti-ship cruise missiles.

In other words, Crimea will become a formidable defensive node, an unsinkable aircraft carrier if you want, and an ideal location for the power-projection of Russian military forces in southern Europe, the Balkans, the Mediterranean, the Middle-East, the Caucasus and Central Asia.

No wonder the US/NATO wanted it so badly.

Speaking of the US and NATO – much is made of the presence of USN ships in the Black Sea. In reality, the USN poses no threat to Russia at all, at least not from the Black Sea. The Black Sea is an enclose and small sea, at least by USN standards, where any USN ship, underwater or on the surface, would be a sitting duck for Russian forces, especially missile attacks.

The USN knows that and what these USN vessels do in the Black Sea is called “showing the flag”. This has nothing to do with threatening Russia or Crimea. If the US really wanted to threaten Russia, the very last thing the USN would do is enter the Black Sea. The USN is a deep sea, “blue water” navy, which fights long-distance and not a littoral, “green water” or, even less so, a coastal “brown water” water navy.

Finally, history has shown that Crimea is ideal to defend and very hard to take. By land, Crimea is only accessible by a few open and undefended roads from the north. Centuries of warfare have turned it into a Swiss-cheese like structure filled with tunnels, underground bunkers and fortifications.

Last but not least, Crimea has now already been fully integrated into the Russian military's Southern Military District (based in Rostov-on-the-Don) and, as such, it would have the full support of the rest of the Russian Armed Forces.

The Saker

Putin puts troops in western Russia on alert in drill

Reuters reports:

President Vladimir Putin ordered an urgent drill to test the combat readiness of the armed forces across western Russia on Wednesday, flexing Moscow's military muscle amid tension with the West over Ukraine.

Putin has ordered several such surprise drills in different Russian regions since he returned to the presidency in 2012, saying the military must be kept on its toes, but the crisis in neighboring Ukraine gave them added geopolitical resonance.

"In accordance with an order from the president of the Russian Federation, forces of the Western Military District were put on alert at 1400 (0500 ET) today," the Interfax news agency quoted Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu as saying.

The western district encompasses most of western Russia and borders Ukraine, which lies between NATO nations and Russia.

Forces must "be ready to bomb unfamiliar testing grounds" as part of the drill, Shoigu told a Defence Ministry meeting.

Putin has made no public comment on Ukraine since President Viktor Yanukovich was driven from power over the weekend after months of political turmoil sparked by his decision to spurn deals with the European Union and improve ties with Russia.

The United States and European nations have warned Russia against military intervention in Ukraine, a former Soviet republic that Putin has called a "brother nation" and wants to be part of a Eurasian Union he is building in the region.

Russian officials have said Moscow will not interfere in Ukraine, while accusing the West of doing so, and Interfax cited the speaker of the upper parliament house, Valentina Matviyenko, as saying on Wednesday it would not use force.

But Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Monday that Russia's interests and its citizens in Ukraine were under threat, language reminiscent of statements justifying Russia's invasion of Georgia in 2008, when he was president.

Shoigu said the drill would be conducted in two stages, ending on March 3, and also involved the command centers of Russia's Air and Space Defence forces, paratroops and long-range aviation as well as some troops in central Russia.

In the two-day first stage, military units would be brought to "the highest degree of combat readiness" and would be deployed to testing areas on land and sea, Interfax quoted Shoigu as saying.

The second stage would include tactical exercises and involve warships from the Northern and Baltic Fleets, he said, and some warplanes would move to combat airfields.

No mention was made of the Black Sea Fleet, which is based in Sevastopol in Crimea, where tension over Ukraine's turmoil is high because of its presence and a large Russian-speaking population.

Shoigu said the drill would also test the counterterrorism measures in place at military units. Russian officials have referred to some of the Ukrainian opposition forces whose protests pushed Yanukovich from power as "terrorists".

Russian armed forces are conducting large scale military exercise in the Far East and Pacific Ocean

Since Putin sacked Serduikov and replaced him with Shoigu, the Russian military has been regularly tested in surprise large-scale military exercises involving a sudden order to prepare for battle typically followed by a long distance move to an unknown location.  This time it is the the Eastern Military District which has undergone such a readiness test, but on a scale previously unknown.  It involved an emergency relocation from the city of Khabarovsk on Russian mainland to the port of Vanino and then to the island of Sakhalin.  On average, the forces had to travel 3'000km to get to their destination. 

A total of 160'000 soldiers, 1'000 tanks, 130 aircraft and 70 navy ships where involved.  The military command declared that "our Far Eastern neighbors were informed of these maneuvers".  What the command did not say, but everybody in the region no doubt understood, is that this was a clear message sent to Japan: Russia can rapidly and effectively reinforce its forces currently deployed on Sakhalin, so do not threaten us there.

This is a Russian TV report about these exercises (in Russian only):

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This begs the question whether Japan did threaten Russia or not.  The answer is "not directly".

Over the past decade Japan did reinforce its armed forces which are less and less "defensive" and which regularly acquire better projection capabilities.  The Japan as a country never threatened Russia, but there are enough Japanese politicians who did exactly that, not only in regards to the so-called "Northern Territories" issue, but also with hostile statement concerning the Russian presence on Sakhalin.  The real problem which these latest maneuvers tackle is not really a Japanese one, but a Russian one: for years the Russian military forces in the Far East have been neglected and their level or readiness reduced to an almost comical level.  Yes, some elite forces (nuclear, airborne, navy) were in pretty decent shape, but the bulk of the ground forces has been completely neglected.  With time, this resulted in a great sense of weakness and even vulnerability not only amongst the well-informed specialists, but also in the general public, in particular in Siberia.

The purpose of these latest large-scale exercises is to demonstrate the viability of the new Russian military doctrine in which each of the four Strategic Commands is in complete control of all the forces in its area of responsibility and each Strategic Command can autonomously deal with any contingency.  In other words, the Eastern Strategic Command should be able to repel a Japanese attack on Sakhalin or even the entire Russian Far East autonomously, without external reinforcements or assistance.  The key test of this latest exercise is whether forces usually dispersed all over the huge Eastern Strategic Command area of responsibility could be rapidly moved and concentrated on Sakhalin.  So far, it appears that the exercise was generally successful, but with some rather embarrassing screw-ups including a 10 hour delay to refuel some aircraft in Khabarovsk.

I would add that if the "defending" forces were all drawn from the Eastern Strategic Command, the "attacking forces" are being moved in from the other Russian Strategic Commands, some as far as from 8'000km away.

Defense Minister Shoigu

Shoigu is clearly determined not only to immediately make such screw-ups public, but also to continue "hunting" for such weaknesses all over the Russian military.  Previous exercises had revealed some very bad weaknesses in the readiness of some ground forces and some major issues of command and control which were immediately addressed.  Other exercises were pleasant surprises with, for example, the Airborne Forces or the Black Sea Fleet performing exceptionally well.

Does all this really matter to the rest of the planet?

I would say that it does, and a great deal.  Simply put, Russia cannot fulfill its role of major power unless its military is in good shape.  The Russian economy is still relatively small, and many years of "democratic" rule under Eltsin have terribly weakened Russia as an ally (how can an American colony be considered as a useful ally).  The fact is that Russia can only offer one thing at this moment in time: the political will to resist the Anglo Empire and the commitment to do so within the limits of international law, as it did in the case of the US/NATO war on Syria.  However, this Russian political commitment only has value as long as the Russian military remains capable of repelling any possible aggression against it because if it cannot fulfill this mission it simply becomes yet another a target for the Anglos.

"Joint Sea 2013"

Furthermore, the Far East and the Pacific region are gradually becoming the most important part of the planet and one in which the simmering US-Chinese tensions will, sooner or later, boil over into something overt.  Hence the recent "Joint Sea 2013" joint large-scaled naval exercise between Russia and China.

The bottom line is this: Russia is continuing the systematic re-construction of its armed forces in a steady process is involving more and more types of forces and units which are being tested in realistic exercises conducted throughout all the regions of Russia.  The final goal is equally clear: to stop relying a few "elite" units and to finally bring the bulk of the armed forces to a readiness level equal to either "satisfactory" or "good".  This will be done by making sure that no less than 70% of all the equipment is modern and by conducting more and more exercises of increasing complexity and size.

General Valerii Gerasimov

It is quite remarkable how much Sergei Shoigu has already achieved in his rather short tenure as Defense Minister (he was appointed to this position on November 6th, 2012).  True, he is being assisted by an exceptionally capable Chief of General Staff, General Valerii Gerasimov, who replaced the clueless and corrupt General Makarov.  Those two men, Shoigu and Gerasimov, are working hand in glove to finally rebuilt a military which has suffered from several decades of neglect, corruption and gross mismanagement.  For literally years the worst problems were always coming from the "top" while the simple solider was told to fight in the worst possible conditions.  The most amazing thing is that this simple solider managed to succeed in this impossible task, often brilliantly (2nd Chechen war, 08.08.08).  Finally, all the signs appear to show that the "top" has finally stopped being part of the problem and has finally become part of the solution.  If that means that the line commanders and soldiers will not have to fight "on two fronts" at the same time we could witness a qualitative change in the capabilities of the Russian military which would allow it to make a meaningful comeback on the world stage alongside the rapidly growing and progressing Chinese military.

The Saker

Possible signs of real changes in the Russian security and elite military forces

One of the more exotic technologies for tracking deeply submerged submarines consists of using a satellite based radar to measure the tiny elevation of the water surface of the ocean above an otherwise well hidden and silently moving submarine.  Some less exotic techniques including detecting wakes, tiny differences in water temperatures, magnetic fluctuations and many other "indirect" methods.  What I propose to do today is something similar: to try to look at some possible signals of what might be happening hidden deep inside the Russian security establishment.

Doku Umarov

As some of you might have recalled, I have regularly covered what I saw as a government campaign to defund, "reform" (read: shut down) and otherwise weaken the Russian elite military forces.  A Spetsnaz brigade was dismantled, the military intelligence service (GRU) was almost reduced to a Department of the General Staff, the 106th Airborne Division came close to being simply eliminated, and a number of top officers were either rather "mysteriously died" or resigned.  Things got totally out of control when the Airborne Forces almost officially demanded the sacking of Defense Minister Serdyukov.

Magomedali Vagabov

And then things suddenly seemed to cool down, and an eerie silence covered this entire "front".  There are now some signs that things have actually begun to change.

First, the Russian security services have embarked on a major campaign to capture or eliminate the leaders of the Wahabi underground in the Caucasus.

Even before the bombing of the Domodedovo airport in Moscow several top leaders of the Wahabi underground in the Caucasus (such as Magometali Vagabov) were killed in the course of several special operations.  Following the Domodedovo bombing (which was officially claimed by the self-styled "First Emir of the Emirate of the Caucasus" Doku Umarov) the campaign to track

Abdullah Kurd

down and kill the Wahabi leaders suddenly intensified and achieved major successes.  Many top officials of the Wahabi insurgency were killed including "Moganned" (a Saudi national), "Abdullah Kurd" (a Turkish national), Israpil Validjanov, Asker Djapuev and even Astemir Mimishev - the assassin of the Mufti of the Kabardino-Balkar Republic.  All of them were killed in the time period between April and May of this year.

The one still not caught, although his death has been announced many times only to be proven wrong is Doku Umarov himself.  Umarov, arguably the very last "historical" leader of the Chechen insurgency alive, has skillfully managed to escape many times from some very close calls, but there is no doubt in my mind that the noose around him is now extremely tight and that he will be killed very soon.

Asker Djapuev

As for the insurgency itself, it is reduced to two basic types of operations: high visibility "symbolic" terrorist attacks such as the one in Domodedovo or small, local level, assassinations of junior policemen and murders of "collaborators".  The single best indicator of the real capabilities of the insurgency is that it is handled only by Ministry of Internal Affairs forces and not by the military (the exception being, of course, the killing of top level commanders which is typically a join effort of the FSB and the GRU with logistical support from local police forces).

Astemir Mamishev

Bottom line: the insurgency has been defeated, most of its leaders are dead, and the scope and nature of Wahabi terrorism in the Caucasus and south Russia has been brought down to something similar to what the IRA was in the years preceding the Good Friday Agreement.

Of course, there is a Presidential election coming up in Russia and Medvedev has been challenged for many of his policies (betrayal of Iran, his "reforms" of the military, Russia's vote in the UN on Libya and many others) and, just like Obama, he needs to market himself as a "strong leader".  This is particularly true considering that Prime Minister Putin is far more popular than Medvedev.

Moganned

There are also signs that Medvedev is openly courting elite Russian military forces.  First, there was the absolutely unprecedented move to award the Order of Kutuzov to the 45th Independent Special Operations Airbore Regiment as a whole (rather than to one individual).  Not only that, but this year the 45th Independent Special Operations Airborne Regiment was invited to the Victory Parade on Red Square.  

Something even more amazing happened on the same day: for the first time ever the traditionally super-secret GRU Spetsnaz forces were also represented during the Victory Day lead by a Spetsnaz Colonel who was identified by name (!).  Considering the fact that Spetsnaz GRU forces are still normally

Israpil Validzhanov

under order never to even show their faces, having them participate in a parade transmitted worldwide is an absolutely amazing, I would say earth-shattering, departure from the usual practice.

Medvedev also showed his support for the Special Forces of the Internal Ministry during a visit to the HQ of the "Rys'" Spetsnaz unit which included a lengthy conversation with the officers of this elite unit.

Clearly Medvedev is going out of his way to make all the political moves needed to show his support for the previously neglected security forces.  His efforts actually go beyond the symbolic.

Spetsnaz GRU sniper in Ossetia

The 106th Guard Airborne division has recently received a lot of high tech gear including UAVs, reconnaissance vehicles and ATV, top of the line night vision gear, encryption communications, advanced computerized command and control networks, etc.  A division which was almost disbanded is now receiving lavish care from the Kremlin.

Of course, this could all be a short lived, one-time, effort in order to achieve some political gains.  But this might also signal that Medvedev has finally accepted the fact that he cannot indefinitely oppose the security establishment and that a typically Russian backstage deal was made between the Kremlin and the security and key military forces.  I am inclined to believe that the latter is true.

45 Airborne Spetsnaz on Victory Day

Whatever may be the case, this is clearly good news for Russia in general and for the Caucasus in particular.  After two decades of absolute horror and chaos, there is a least a non-irrelevant possibility that some normalization and recovery might take place.  The combined action of the security forces and the Kremlin's campaign to support non-Wahabi Islam are slowly bringing about some results.  What is now needed is another double struggle: to bring in economic growth to the Caucasus and a merciless crackdown at the local corruption which is absolutely horrendous, even by Russian standards.

Spetsnaz "Rys'" officer

Medvedev has embarked on a massive campaign to fight corruption in Russia.  This campaign is centered on two mains tracks: a massive overhaul of the hideously corrupt and incompetent police force combined with an equally ferocious crackdown on corrupt government officials.  The faces of sacked police generals are now paraded on TV on an almost daily basis and the Kremlin is using the crafty pretext of a "re-attestation" of *all* the Internal Ministry official (from the rank and file to the very top commanders) to sack anybody who is perceived as corrupt or incompetent.  The Russian public in understandably viewing all this with a lot of skepticism, or even cynicism, and only time will show if all these efforts are for real or not.  The key test, in my opinion, will be if the Kremlin will be willing (and able) crackdown on the all-powerful Mafia and gangs of thugs which have prospered in the Caucasus for many decades.

Spetsnaz GRU Col. Tkachuk on Victory Day

The problem of the Wahabi insurgency cannot be separated from the problem of the south Russian mob - the two are twin brothers, closely linked at many levels.  For example, one of the reasons why only central "elite" Spetsnaz forces have been able to eliminate so many Wahabi leaders is not that such operations require an amazing amount of military skills, but simply because the central Spetsnaz forces have no connections to the local mob or the local police (which, for all practical purposes is one and the same).

This is an ambitious multi-tired program for sure, but one which is vital for the stability and security of all of Russia.  If it takes a looming Presidential election to finally make it happen, then this is a good thing.

The Saker

Russian military to purchase 600 planes, 100 ships

By David Nowak for AP

Russia will spend $650 billion to equip its dilapidated military with 600 new warplanes, 100 ships and 1,000 helicopters by 2020, Defense Ministry officials were quoted as saying Thursday.

The ambitious weapons procurement program also envisages eight new nuclear submarines and two Mistral aircraft carriers in addition to the two that Russia is buying from France, Russian news agencies quoted First Deputy Defense Minister Vladimir Popovkin as saying.

His announcement comes during a large-scale streamlining of personnel in Russia's bloated and poorly equipped armed forces. The unpopular reforms of Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov have seen as many as 200,000 officers lose their jobs and nine of every 10 army units disbanded.

Though the program foresees spending on strategic forces, analysts hailed the massive order of conventional arms, saying it would lower Russia's dependence on its nuclear arsenal. But they warned it could only be a success if there was a professional and efficient military to use the new equipment.

"Russia needs a professional noncommissioned officers core to train specialists who can really put these arms to effective use," said Pavel Felgenhauer, an independent military analyst. "This spending necessitates a whole new kind of military."

Last week, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin promised that from next year 1.5 percent of gross domestic product would be spent on army modernization, military pay and other defense spending. He said the country currently allocates 0.5 percent of GDP.

Chief among the aviation procurements are the modern Su-34 and Su-35 fighters and Mi-26 transport helicopter and Mi-8 gunship helicopter, Popovkin said. Navy orders include 20 submarines, of which eight are to be armed with the Bulava nuclear missile - which has experienced years of glitch-stricken tests - 35 corvettes and 15 frigates, Popovkin said.

The Mistral, which could carry up to 16 helicopters and dozens of armored vehicles, would allow Russia to land hundreds of troops quickly on foreign soil. Popovkin said Russia would build two Mistrals domestically on top of the two it had ordered from France. The carriers will all feature Russian-only weaponry, he said.

Several hundred modern mobile S-400 and S-500 air defense missile systems also are on order.