Two Choices to the Ukrainian Conscription - Nikolai Starikov - 26 Jul 2014

Please press on the 'cc' button on the lower right corner of the video to see the English subtitles

Why Novorussians and Russians are right to treat the Ukie soldiers with compassion and kindness

For a couple of days now, I have posted various items showing the large number of casualties amongst the Ukie forces fighting against Novorussia, and I have observed with some amusement how many of you have expressed doubts about the veracity of these figures.  Today Nora drew my attention to a short video of a Ukie army recruiting officer being confronted by a crowd of civilians, mostly women, mostly mothers.  The video is a few days old, but this version is subtitled in English, so please watch it now:



Now, there are a couple of thing I would like to share with you after this video.

First, believe me, these women are aware of the terrifying rumours which speak of casualty figures way higher then those mentioned officially.   Keep in mind that a lot of Ukie soldiers simply disappear either torn into unrecoverable small pieces of meat and bones, or hastily buried into mass graves by their own officers to cover up their deaths, either quietly killed and secretly buried by the civilians of Novorussia (I have seen a video of Ukie recruits who say that they are terrified of the local civilians who smile at them and then kill them as soon as they get an opportunity).

Second, and this what a lot of you are missing, the Ukie and Novorussian militaries are dramatically different.  Let me explain:

Ukrainian military:

The Ukrainian military has been completely neglected by all the governments in power since 1991.  Do you remember the condition of the Russian military during the First Chechen war?  Now imagine taking that military, and instead of turning it around, you let it further degrade for another 20 years.  That would be more or less what the Ukie military is today.  Add to this that most officers and soldiers do not want to fight.  Besides fighting a war they personally don't want (again, not all Ukrainians are Right Sector Nazi fanatics!), they are also literally hungry (they eat snakes now) and totally under equipped.  The command and control system of the Ukie military is more or less dead.  The ONLY advantage of the Ukies is the sheer number of aircraft, tanks and artillery, and that really is a purely quantitative advantage.

Novorussian military:

It is composed solely of volunteers.  Even the partial mobilization decreed recently in Donetsk is a moral obligation: you are told you have to show up, but if you do not, nobody will get you.  Second, there are a lot of very experienced soldiers and officers on the Novorussian side.  As as a direct result of that the following is true:

1 Ukie Grad MLRS is not equal to 1 Novorussian Grad MLRS

That is literally true.  Even if it is exactly the same Grad MLRS.  In fact, many, possibly most Grads used by the Novorussians are trophies taken away from the Ukies.  But whereas the Uky artillery almost exclusively shoots in more or less random way in the general direction of the other side, hitting only civilians, the Novorussians use each Grad with devastating effectiveness choosing the correct munition, landing it with surgical accuracy right on top of the Ukie positions.

Then look at the footage of Novorussian fighters: a lot of them are 30+ to 40+ years old group.  These are folks who have already spent a lot of time in the military, often with experience of war, and who know their job very very well.  Yes, it is true that the Novorussians still need many more of such experiences "wolves of war" as they are called in Russian, but they already have a lot of them.  So on one hand you have clueless but young guys, and on the other, older, but experienced pros who know how to survive.

Furthermore, you can look at any video shot on the Novorussian side, and it is clear that their morale is extremely high.  Most of you have probalby seen the footage made a few days ago of the Vostok Battalion on Saur Mogila where the local commander, Samurai, was preparing his men to go into battle to attack the Ukies in the southern cauldron and then the footage shows them jumping on their vehicles and going into battle.  Sure, the guys were tired and serious, but also extremely motivated and impatient to resume the fight.  The contrast with footage taken on the Ukie side could not have been stronger.

And then, let's be honest about it, by now there are a lot of very experienced fighters from Russia in the Novorussian military.  Again, these are older men, often with brand new gear, who appear to be either NCOs or officers and who are clearly very highly motivated. 

Finally, the Ukies are lead by corrupt and incompetent generals, imagine Pavel Grachev, but even worse.  The reports that the fighting Ukies absolutely hate and despise their commanders (not the direct commander, but the top brass, the generals) are all over the social media.  On the other hand, you have folks like Strelov, Samurai, Motorola, Kedr, Khodakovskii and others of clearly are both very experienced and very talented.  And, again, this is my personal opinion, but there is no doubt in my mind that these local commanders not only have all sorts of, shall way say, "advisers" from the Russia, but that the Russian military supports the Novorussians with intelligence and expertise (who do you guess was the first to detect the envelopment manover attempted by the Ukies along the Russian border?).

So this is in no way the fault of the Ukrainian foot solider who is, by all accounts, courageous, extremely strong willed and who will execute his mission in the toughest conditions.  Just look at how long the poor Ukrainian soldiers in the Southern Cauldron have been resisting under absolutely nightmarish conditions!  But in these circumstances the Ukies don't stand a chance, and even though they do have an advantage in the open field by the sheer number of artillery, tanks and aircraft, as soon as they get into closer combat the Novorussians make minced meat out of them.

The true figures are hidden by the junta

Remember this: if Novorussia has something like 6,5 million people, the entire Ukraine has somewhere 40 million people.  So what does the junta do?  They spread out the casualties.  The Ukies are now conducting their THIRD partial mobilization (penalty for refusing to serve: 5 years in jail).  They are taking young men as cannon fodder form all over the Ukraine, from Lvov to Vinnitsa to Chernigov and they send them to Novorussia to get butchered by an army and population which fights with the energy of despair and which fights on its own land.

This might shock you and I will get a lot of nasty comments for saying this, but I personally think that the Ukie casualty figures are grossly UNDER-estimated and that when this horrible civil war comes to and end and this issue is professionally investigated we will find that the real figures of killed Ukrainians will be way higher than even the highest figures quoted today.

I think that as it typically the case in a dictatorship, the fact that the 5 state owned TV stations say exactly the same nonsense does not prevent the other information from seeping in in all sorts of creative manners: the Internet, of course, but also relatives abroad, the Russian media, leaks from the government structures, etc.   And then you have the number of neighbours who are being told that they son "died like a hero for his country" (and, typically, that his body was not recovered) who then talk to you in the evenings, around a kitchen table, when nobody is around.  So for all the Ukie official propaganda the poor women on the video above are absolutely terrified that if they military is allowed to run a conscription locally their sons and husbands will also "died a hero's death".  Hence their desperate rage.

Us and them?

This is a truism, but I will say this again here: the vast majority of the soldiers fighting against Novorussians are Russian themselves, in the sense that they speak Russian, they are not Nazis at all and they are not the crazy Euromaidanites who started all this shit - they are simple country or small town folks who watched it all on the TV.  Sure, they probably hated Yanukovich, but no more than they hated Timoshenko or Yushchenko, and while they feel Ukrainian that does not mean that they have this satanic russophobia so typical of the real Ukie Nazis.  Not even most of the National Guard are hardened "Ukie Interahamwe".  That scum is mostly found in the deathsquads of Kolomoiskii and Liashko.  In those units you truly have the scum of the earth, pathologically evil sickos who will crucify babies and strangle pregnant women with a telephone cord.  This is not a typical Ukrainian thing, by the way, you will find a minority of such sociopaths in any country and society.  The difference is that in a civilized and normal society you typically find these types in jail, whereas in the current Ukraine turned Banderastan they are in positions of power.  But I am absolutely sure that you could find the proportion of maniacal thugs amongst Russians, Belgians, Peruvians or even Eskimos.  That is just a sad part of the human nature.  The scary thing is that in Banderastan they get to rule the rest of society.

I take immense solace in the fact that Russians clearly understand that, even the Novorussians do.  I just watched a video about 40+ Ukrainian border guards who were terribly shot up by the Novorussians and who offered to surrender in exchnage for a safe passage to Russia.  Not only did the Novorussians accept that, but they also fed them, treated their wounds (often terrible ones), then brought them across the border where the Russian military treated them again and then let them chose between staying in Russia or returning home (and risk being investigated by the Nazis for "desertion").  Those who wanted to return did so on Russian military aircraft. 

A few commentators said that this was stupid on the Russian part.  I categorically disagree.  If these guys had been Kolomoiskii's thugs, then yes, it would have been stupid.  But these were basically decent guys, used as canon fodder, in other words, victims.  And I am proud that the Russians also understood that and acted with kindness and compassion towards them.

To those of you who believe that the Ukie Nazis might get such a sweet deal, I can reassure you - forget it.  Russia is Russia and war is war.  In Chechnia for example, when caught the Wahabis were given a 10-15 min one on one "interview" with a a few Paratrooper or Spetsaz NCOs which rapidly established their values as prisoners in an extremely unpleasant dialog for the Wahabi and then, unless the Russians thought they had a high value prisoner, they would be summarily executed and buried.  I have no doubt whatsoever of what the Novorussians do when the catch a member of a Ukie death squad and I can assure you that they will not treat his wounds or allow him to survive longer than 30min max. But, again and again, the vast majority of the Ukies butchered today are not members of death squads and even though they are clearly fighting on the wrong side, they have very little choice and they are therefore also first and foremost victims who deserve our compassion.

The Ukrainian tragedy

The Russian word безобразие (bezobrazie) is often translated into English as ugliness, of deformity or even scandal or chaos. But that is not a very good rendering of its meaning.  Bezobrazie is composed of the prefix "bez" which means "without" and then the word "obraz" which means "image" or "type" or even "character".  What bez-obraz-ie means the "absence of a coherent image" or, literally, the "loss of your own identity".  This is what happened to the Ukrainian people, they lost their own real identity and they let it be replaced by a ugly, xenophobic, murderous and hate-filled "mask" of sorts, which is not at all what the real Ukrainian culture used to be.  This is immensely sad, and I want to hope that this horror can be healed.  But in the meantime, Russians need to make sure that they do now allow themselves to be changed by this war, they need to make sure that the Russian people retain their own spiritual and cultural "obraz" in the sense of "identity".  This is also one crucially important reason why they should continue to treat the Ukie soldiers with compassion and kindness: Russian compassion can be a powerful weapon against Ukie hatred and maybe even an impulse for the Ukrainian people to recover their true identity.

The Saker

Footage of the vaporized leftovers of the Ukie 79th Airborne Brigade

Honestly? I feel sorry for these guys who probably did not chose to be there.  But I am also extremely relieved that they were stopped and wiped out as their role was to completely encircle Novorussia and then mercilessly crush Resistance.  Still, as the Russian poet Voloshin wrote "with all my heart, I pray for these and for the others". The Saker

 

Catastrophic Desertions and Losses in the Ukrainian Army - Official Ukrainian Reports, July 19, 2014

Catastrophic Desertions and Losses in the Ukrainian Army - Official Ukrainian Reports, July 19, 2014

Preamble by Gleb Bazov: It is rare that we report on the workings of the aggressor across the battle lines. This item is different. Before you is a translation, kindly prepared by Valentina Lisitsa, of a report from the head of the Ukrainian Security Service, V.O. Nalyvaichenko, to the President of Ukraine, P.A. Poroshenko. It is an important document, which, we hope, you will distribute widely.

No further commentary is necessary, other than the following brief quotation. According to V.O. Nalyvaichenko, "2/3 of the active combat military units currently participating in the ATO will simply cease to exist in as little as 4 to 5 days" due to mass desertions and casualties. To provide context for this letter, provided below is another document recently publicized as an internal memorandum from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, which details recent casualties of the Ukrainian army, equally as catastrophic as its desertion rates

---

Report by Head of SBU, V.O. Nalyvaichenko, to the President of Ukraine, P.A. Poroshenko

Translated by Valentina Lisitsa

Header Left: 
Security Service of Ukraine. 
16, Malopidvalna St., 
Kiev, 01601
Tel: 226-25-64, 256-97-32, July 19 2014, 
No. 5/2/2-1331

Header right: 
Absolutely Confidential (Addendum 1)
Personally to the President of Ukraine, P.A. Poroshenko

Handwritten Across the Top:
"To continue until Victory!"
Signed V.O. Nalyvaichenko 20/7 [July 20]

I am reporting.

In the period from July 14^th to 19^th, 2014 we witness a catastrophic increase (of 3473 people, or 47%) in the number of deserters in the units of the Army and the National Guard – in comparison with last week’s numbers (1847 people, 25%).
Apart from that, during the stated period the number of missing in action had increased as well (1344 people , 47%, last week – 344 people, 10%).

This phenomenon is connected to increased activity of the enemy in the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions as well as to the increase in the number of casualties in the ranks of the above-mentioned structures. 
This fact [negatively] influences the combat-worthiness of the personnel and makes continuation of the ATO impossible. In the event the negative trend continues at the same level, I estimate that 2/3 of the active combat military units currently participating in the ATO will simply cease to exist in as little as 4 to 5 days.

With the aim of preserving the combat potential of our military structures, I am proposing that we perform a withdrawal maneuver of our militarily units to the area around Dobropil'ya and Smolyaninove. After replenishment of the ammunition stocks, re-grouping as well as rotation of the personnel by at least 60%, we can continue the offensive.

Signed,
The Head of the Ukrainian Security Service of Ukraine,
V. Nalyvaichenko

Agreed,
The head of the Antiterrorist Centre of the Security Service,
B. Hrytsak

---

Official Ukrainian Military Report of Losses for July 9-15, 2014(Arsen Avakov, Minister of Interior and V. Gritsak, Head of the ATO)

Translated by Gleb Bazov

... We admit the possibility that all the fighters have been purged by the separatists.

In vide of the concentration of a large number of fighters near the airport, as well as lack of prospects in conducting an evacuation of the members of the National Guard from the Donetsk airport, I propose to withdraw the units of the Ukrainian military to the area of Avdeevka in order to regroup them for a further attack against the forces of the separatists.

An Accounting of the Losses among Ukrainian Military, the Militants and the Civilians in the Donetsk and the Lugansk regions (for the period from July 9-15, 2014)

TOTAL UKRAINIAN LOSSES

1. Killed in Action: 1600
2. Wounded in Action: 4723
3. Tanks: 35
4. Armoured Battle Vehicles: 96
5. Artillery: 38
6. Aircraft: 7
7. Helicopters: 2
8. Automobiles: 104

TOTAL MILITIA LOSSES

1. Killed in Action: 48
2. Wounded in Action: 64
3. Tanks: 2
4. Armoured Battle Vehicles: 0
5. Artillery: 5
6. Automobiles: 8

TOTAL CIVILIAN LOSSES

1. Killed: 496
2. Wounded: 762

SIGNED & SUBMITTED BY: Arsen Avakov (Minister of Interior) and V. Gritsak (Head of the ATO)

A Soldier's Mother in Western Ukraine

[For subtitles click the "captions" button next to the "settings" wheel on lower right corner of your screen]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yurwhSvJ8uM

Meanwhile, back in Kiev, (and elsewhere in Ukraine) - Economics

by NoBC4U for No Bread And Circuses For You 

original link: http://bread-circuses-today.blogspot.ca/2014/07/meanwhile-back-in-kiev-and-elsewhere-in.html
 
Reports from various sources along with "man on the street" observations.

Sadly, in the last few weeks, there has been numerous stories about death and destruction in the east of Ukraine by the Ukrainian Army. Let's face it, death and destruction are compelling narratives. It has often been said about mainstream media, “If it bleeds, it leads".

In the face of the much more compelling narratives, there are other stories occurring behind the scenes. While these are certainly not nearly as compelling, this slow trickle of behind the scenes stories may in the long run be the decisive factor in the future of Ukraine.

So, let's take a look at some of these hidden stories.

Economic stories.

Utilities…

The highly touted rising gas prices I was supposed to take effect on May 1, did not occur on May 1. It instead happened on June 1. No surprise there. May 1 was before the presidential election. June 1 was after. You always hold off bad news until after an election. But the price hike was not the 50% that was often touted in the media. Instead, the price between May and June went up almost 63%. Being summertime, this only covers natural gas used in cooking. So for most people, this is not a big hit. But just wait till October when charges for heating start to appear on the bills. Of course, I’m certain that the junta hopes that the six-month period when no heat appears on the bills will not be noticed in October when the charge for heat returns. By then, I would not be surprised if the increase is even greater than 63%.

So then, why was the increase 63% instead of the 50% mentioned previously? Well, a 50% increase was based on an exchange rate of approximately 8.5 grivnas per dollar. Since the grivna has lost value, with our new exchange rate of 11.52 a dollar, this led to an even higher increase than stated. This is because gas is bought on the international market and must go through currency conversions. I guess the big question would be since Ukraine is not paying their gas bills, why do we have to pay anything? Oh yeah, that's right, there’s this little genocidal war going on.

The cold water rates have just risen, and man, is it a biggie. That’s up 133%! Electric is up too, but only 10%… so far. Bigger users of electricity might find their increase to be even larger.

Banking…

There have been some reports now that if you deposit money in a bank, you can expect to pay the Kiev authorities 15% up front, unless you can prove that the deposit did not come from under the table employment, or that taxes had already been paid. Somehow, I believe this will backfire and people who stash their cash in a mattress or a safe. I do remember in the past, when transferring money into the country for a purchase, that I had to declare that it did not come from employment. Now, they just take the money. Presumably there’s a way to get that money back if you’ve already paid your taxes.

Corporate Restructures…

In addition, certain companies are "restructuring" their operations here in Kiev. I have only come across a few examples so far, but that likely means that for every example I found, there were four or five or 20 others that I am not aware of.

First up is the company 4A Games. They recently announced they are moving their headquarters from Kiev to Cyprus. They did go out of their way to mention that programming and development teams will remain in Kiev. Yet, moving one's headquarters is not a sign of confidence in the local economy. And they stated the move was to be in closer proximity to their EU client base. I assume they’re not speaking about physical proximity, though.

EPAM systems are choosing to expand operations in Poland to mitigate the risks associated with Ukraine. And Luxoft holdings plans to move 500 programming staff out of both Ukraine and Russia because of the ongoing conflicts.

And GlobalLogic is setting up operations in Kosice Slovakia, 50 miles (80 km) from the Ukraine border. Close enough to numerous locations in Ukraine for a visit home once a month. An ideal location for a homesick Ukrainian programmer.

These companies are all software related. Programming and development positions represent some of the best paying positions for talented college graduates in all of Ukraine. Their immediate loss of some jobs and the loss of future jobs that might have been Ukraine-based will be a big hit for the future of the Ukraine economy. These current and future jobs are gone and will not be returning for a long time. Consequently, some of the best and the brightest, the future of Ukraine, will leave the country for opportunities elsewhere.

I guess it's actually justice in a way. Some companies that outsource IT work to Ukraine are PepsiCo, IBM, Ford, Chrysler, and Dell. While the US government will certainly not sanction the Nazi government here in Ukraine (preferring to sanction Russia instead), these major corporate outsourcers would prefer stability, and that is unlikely to return to Ukraine for very long time. So in effect, these companies are implementing the sanctions that the US government should, but will never do.

It is still too early to tell the effects this will have on my wife's business. She supplies medical services that, while provided by the government for free, are much more appealing and convenient for those who have the means. But it's likely that quite a few that have the means today will not have the means a couple of months from now. The business really slow down in the months of April and May, but have recently picked back up again, probably because enough people believe the election of a new president means a return to normalcy. But normalcy is a relative thing these days…

Refugees from the East.

I have heard several reports about refugees arriving in Kiev from the East. Some are no doubt professionals, competing for positions in an already depressed job market. Numerous others are at the lower end of the scale, looking for jobs as drivers and household help. Those who know some English will likely be better off; those that don't likely to end up very disappointed and unemployed for the long term. And government austerity is likely to hit those that are not employed immensely.

Weather related economic hits…

With cooler and wetter than normal weather in the central region this summer, a number of crops are likely to take major hits, even if the weather quickly returns to normal. A long-term area resident (70 years) doesn’t remember any summer quite like this one. Potatoes, one of the major staple foods, is likely to show a major decline. It’s important to remember that even with the loss of Crimea, Ukraine remains larger than the state of Texas, so in normal years this could be overcome. But with war out east, agricultural output in the east is down too.

Agricultural output in Crimea took a hit too because Ukraine cut off a major water supply route to Crimea. And it’s also likely that agricultural output of Crimea that in the past would have benefitted Ukraine will be used for Crimean and Russian needs first, including the 500,000 estimated refugees from the war in east Ukraine now living in Russia. Ukraine should probably not expect too much help on that front.

Other economic activity depressed.

During the so-called "revolution,” the overall economy if Ukraine didn't seem to be hit all that badly. But the month of April showed numerous large decreases in numerous sections of the economy. In the month of April alone, certain sectors showed drops in the range of 10 to 25% in one month! So it looks like Ukraine is going down, and it's going down hard.

Timothy Ash, writing in the Kyiv Post, says this about economic activity in Ukraine so far in 2014.

• "Herein, the overall production index dropped by 6.2 percent year-on-year in April, from the 3.4 percent drop in March, and within this chemical production dropped by 23.3 percent, engineering by 18.9 percent and metallurgy by 12.8 percent.
• This fits in with anecdotal reports of strikes/disruptions to various production facilities in Donetsk and Luhansk and also to transport services, particularly rail transport.
• Plants across Ukraine may now be struggling to receive parts from operations in Luhansk, Donetsk and even Crimea. A Kyiv Post report yesterday suggested significant problems emerging in the auto sector.
• All the above would tend to suggest a more precipitous fall in economic activity is under way – perhaps more in line with recent European Bank of Reconstruction and Development/Moody’s forecasts for a 7-7.4 percent real GDP decline this year.
• The latter, if delivered, would make adherence to IMF targets that much more difficult, and “recalibration” of the IMF programme that much more likely later this year."

Kiev Post Article

Needless to say, this is an enormous economic hit to the economy of Ukraine. And it is not one that Ukraine will soon recover from.

Stores closing.

So far, there have been a number of store closings on Khreschatyk, the main street of Kiev, and indeed, all of Ukraine. I’ve counted around 20 so far, but I have not visited a number of the side streets. First, a good portion of Khreschatyk is still closed to vehicular traffic and remains a tent city, mixed with a large dollop of circus freak show and hawkers of souvenirs weird and strange. So it's quite possible that it's no longer profitable to have a store on "Main Street". My guess is that retailers who have leases coming up for renewal are not renewing at this time and as time goes by, more retailers will join the act, either because of lack of faith in the economy or the hope that in a year or two or three, they may be able to return to a much lower lease and a much better economy. But most of these retailers have other locations throughout Kiev, so it’s not a mad dash for the exits yet. But the continued presence of the Maidan does not help; the Globus Mall, built under Independence Square had foot traffic, a few days ago, 70% less then I’ve ever seen it before, plus a number of empty storefronts, something I’ve never seen at this location.

Shortages:

While the price of a whole lot of items have increased, largely because of currency devaluation, most items are still available, at a price. Remember that currency devaluation mostly impacts imported goods. The major exception is a number of Russian made items, some because of trade sanctions, and some because the demand just isn’t there anymore. Others are a bit more worrying.

Salt (except for sea salt) basically disappeared from store shelves in Kiev for a few weeks. The reason? At least some of the salt in this part of the world comes from Slavyansk, until recently under control of the anti-fascist forces. And even more comes from Crimea.

Some medicines, especially those that are imported, can be in short supply. I’ve told my wife to always have at least a month’s supply of important medicines, which might have not been enough, since one of her medicines disappeared from shelves for a few weeks. It is now back, and we currently have a 3 month supply. But medicines, especially imported ones, will likely be in short supply because of the logistics of shipping into a dysfunctional country, along with price increases putting these medicines out of the reach of a good number of people.

Commentary:

Yet with all this, I'm still surprised at how little has changed. So far. Grass is still being cut, (some) road maintenance is still being done, the water fountains are dancing merrily as if it was still 2013. So, what might be the reason for this?

Since I'm reporting from a decent enough neighborhood, I first attributed it to city leadership keeping up a façade so that they could extract higher taxes later. But, it actually seems a bit more basic than this. And also a bit more obvious. It's so basic and so obvious I'm surprised it took me so long to see it, and am surprised it's taking other commentators so long to see it. Here's how I see it playing out.

First let's take a quick look at what the IMF actually does. What it does is it works with a government and together they declare war on the people of the target country. In simple terms, that's really what the IMF does. When the IMF rolls into a country, whether South Korea, Argentina, Russia, or any number of others, it sets up targets for economic reform that are most likely going to be difficult or impossible to achieve. Once compliance does not happen, they rape and pillage the economy, in line with the negotiated terms. Their stolen loot is then given away at a fire sale to those who can "better manage it". It's "steal from the 99%" and "give to the one percent". It's a class war where the 1% comes out on top, as they normally do.

Now in most IMF interventions, the IMF is the primary intervener., many times the only one. While there may be other social and political goals, the economic goals of the IMF reigns supreme. But is this the case in Ukraine? Looking more closely, it's clear that there are several other major players involved in the Ukraine fiasco. And these players have goals of their own. In the case of Ukraine, the primary intervener is not the IMF. That "honor" goes to the State Department and the CIA. From what we have seen so far in 2014, the goals of the State Department and the CIA will take priority over the goals of the IMF. So then, exactly what does this mean going forward for Ukraine?

The goals of the State Department and the CIA so far all clearly pointing to trying to provoke Russia to invade Ukraine. So far, they have not had a lot of success meeting this goal. But should they be able to provoke Russia to protect Russian people in the east of Ukraine, it will provoke a larger war, Russia on one hand, versus Ukraine and NATO on the other hand. A war of country versus country and its allies. Now, remember back a few paragraphs where we discussed the modus operandi of the IMF. With IMF's help, a government declares war on its people. The State Department and the CIA are attempting to provoke an international hot war involving Ukraine and Russia. Now, while it might be possible for a government to have both a war with a neighboring country and with its own people at the same time, I really don't believe you're going to see that here. The war that will be given priority will be the war with Russia, should that occur. Consequently, when support for the international war, the war with Russia, you will see programs implemented to build support for that war. Austerity will lead to a major lack of support for said international war, and will therefore be against the goals of the State Department and the CIA. So, will the IMF be left out in the cold, with the bill to be paid by NATO, EU, and USA tax payers? The IMF will no doubt still push through what it can, but if some action leads to major pushback by the citizenry, the IMF may possibly let Ukraine slide on a few. I say possibly because the government still has their means of enforcement, Right Sector.

So for Ukraine, it's the ultimate lose-lose situation. Should the state Department and CIA get their way, Ukraine will be ground zero for a major land war. If Russia should manage to tie their hands, and war is prevented, Ukraine will be socked by a major IMF austerity plan, made worse by the loss of Crimea and possibly other areas of Ukraine, and made even worse by the debts incurred trying to provoke said war, which will be thrown on the backs of those Ukrainians who stick around for the punishment.

Am I being a bit too optimistic here? Possible, but only time will tell. My guess is that the State Department and CIA goals will get first priority and if that means suspending some IMF goals to garner public support, that will happen. Anyway, that’s the way I see it now.

A scorecard for the US "lukewarm war" on Russia - strategic and tactical levels

First, I have to explain the title: "A scorecard for US war on Russia": what we are witnessing today is beyond any doubt a US war on Russia, except that it that is is neither quite "cold" nor "hot": it's tepid, lukewarm.  Not for the people dying of course, but by it's choice of methods.  It is not a Cold War because people are dying, because tanks, artillery and airpower is being used on a daily basis now, but it is not a Hot War either, because while people in the Ukraine are being killed, the real target of this war is, of course, Russia.  In other words, this is not a Russian-Ukrainian war, nor is it a US-Ukrainian war, it is a US-Russian war, fought in the Ukraine with "Hot War" methods, but whose real target are not the murdered people in the Ukraine but Russia as a country and a civilizational project.  I think that it is crucial to state that to make a correct analysis of what is going on.

STRATEGIC LEVEL ANALYSIS

The USA has no special interests in the Ukraine at all.  The only reason why Uncle Sam got so heavily involved is the (totally mistaken) belief - expressed by Zbigniew Brzezinski and Hillary Clinton - that "without the Ukraine Russia cannot be a superpower" and that "Putin is trying to recreate the Soviet Union".  Since a reborn USSR would be the single major threat to the US domination of the planet, the US shall spare no effort into making sure that the Ukraine not only breaks away from Russia, but turns into a US colonial protectorate like Poland or Lithuania: rabidly anti-Russian, administered by the EU and controlled by NATO.  Of course, the "prize of prizes" would have been Crimea with Sevastopol as a base for the USN and a fantastic "unsinkable carrier" to project US subversive efforts throughout southern Russia, the Caucasus and even the Middle- East.  Alas, Putin's lightening fast action in Crimea completely foiled this part of the plan: instead of getting the entire Ukraine including its crown jewel, Crimea, the AngloZionists were left in full control of West-Central Ukraine (aka "Banderastan") and an uprising in East-Central Ukraine (aka "Novorossia).  However, Uncle Sam also walked away with some real successes: not only was the democratically elected President Yanukovich "regime-changed", the secession of Crimea and the uprising in the Donbass made the "more or less election" of a pro-US puppet like Poroshenko finally possible.   So far so good, but remember, this is not about the Ukraine at all, this is about Russia and only Russia.  So the relevant question is not whether the US succeeded in putting a puppet regime in power, but what good it does to the AngloZionist Empire to have Poroshenko in power in Kiev.  The answer to that is, of course, very little, if any.

Again, to understand the US position you have to stop thinking like a rational and mentally sane person, and try to think like an imperialistic maniac hell-bent on world domination who sincerely sees Russia at the #1 obstacle to the realization of this goal.  Such a maniac will ask himself a basic question: how much, if at all, is Russia weakened by the current situation in the Ukraine?  And, again, the obvious answer is only marginally.  Here is how a hypothetical US "1% deep-stater" will think about Russia's current position:

They got Crimea, so all our hopes about the Black Sea region, the Caucasus and the Middle-East are gone.  In fact, now that Crimea is fully Russia, it is the Russian position in the Black Sea region, the Caucasus and even the Middle-East which has become stronger, much stronger in fact.  Worse, by chopping off the Crimea from the rest of the Ukraine, the Russikies have not only created a very dangerous precedent, they have deeply destabilized the richest and best educated part of the Ukraine - the Donbass - leaving us with the a poor, phenomenally corrupt basically broke "Banderastan" to run.  Worse, if we did not have our various CIA run death-squads ("Maindanites", "Right Sector", "National Guard", "soccer hooligans", etc.) then Poroshenko would probably last less than 1 month in power anyway, especially with the accursed Russikes about to turn off the gas spigot if the Ukies don't come up with a payment plan they cannot afford anyway.  The only thing our symbolic pseudo-sanctions against Russia have achieved so far was to push the Russkies to do what they should have done a decade ago: to lower their dependence on the US-controlled banking system, to sever their ties with the Ukie military-industrial complex and to push the Russian business community towards seeking stronger ties with Asia.

The bottom line is that at least so far the AngloZionist Empire has failed to secure any strategic objective.  Russia is as powerful as ever, arguably even more powerful than before the crisis began.

What about the association agreement with the EU then?  It means nothing to the Americans.  All that agreement would really achieve would be to further impoverish the rump-Ukraine and create a bloody mess for the EU.  Yes, for Russia this would mean maybe two to three years of minor headaches (dealing with illegal immigrants, finding new suppliers, etc.) but nothing truly meaningful.  And since it was the EU the broke the Ukraine, they now own it, but then since it is the US which own the EU to begin with, you might as well say that the US now owns what is left of the Ukraine.  Hardly a coveted prize...

There is only one way for the AngloZionists to turn defeat into victory and that way is most obviously to pull Russia into an overt military intervention in the Donbass.  An overt Russian military intervention in the Donbass would achieve all the following goals:

• Create a fantastic justification for the continued existence of NATO.
• Create a fantastic justification for a new Cold War in Europe which would strengthen the US grip on the Old Continent.
• Create a fantastic justification for an increase in military spending for all NATO states.
• Create a fantastic scapegoat upon which to blame upcoming economic collapse of Banderastan.
• Create a fantastic opportunity to demonize Russia and Putin personally.
• Create a perfect justification for the CIA to initiate another Operation Cyclone, this time in Novorossia.
• Create a great way to show the US public opinion that Obama is a tough, "war President", with "hair on his chest" and who can show the Russkies who is boss thereby overturning the image of a flaccid and incompetent loser which Obama presently "enjoys".
• Make the Russians pay for the failed war in Syria.
• Show all the BRICS countries that nobody can defy Uncle Sam
• Re-vitalize the currently comatose and desperate (CIA-controlled) "liberal" opposition in Russia.

Needless to say, seen this time from the point of view of Russia, all of the above are crucial reasons to avoid being sucked into an overt military intervention in the Ukraine.  However, non-intervention by itself is hardly a "policy" and it cannot constitute a strategic goal.  So let us now look at the strategic goals of Russia.

Initially, Russia wanted something rather basic: an independent, more or less neutral, but prosperous Ukraine.  Not because Russians are inherently just so nice and compassionate, but because the best thing for Russia is to have a prosperous neighbor for which she hold no responsibility but with which she can built mutually beneficial economic ties.  Yes, sure, Kiev is the mother of all Russian cities, and the so-called Ukraine is an invention - no such state of nation ever existed before - and it is true that the "Small Russia" (in the meaning of "Core" or "Central" Russia) is the cradle of the Russian civilization, but these are all things of the past.  Nowadays, if the Ukies want to call themselves something other than "Russians", and if they want to try to re-invent themselves a culture ex nihilo - let them.  Who cares really?  It's their loss: instead being a part of one of the (relatively) ancient nations and cultures in history they chose to become, well, who knows what?  But who cares, it's their right after all.  Their "arguments" might not get much traction with most Russians, especially the educated ones, but this is hardly a reason for conflict.  Over the past two decades there never has been a movement of any relevance in Russia to oppose the Ukrainian independence.  Basically, most Russians did not give a damn and, frankly, they were right.

But, again, we need to remember that this is not a Russian-Ukrainian problem.  It is a US-Russian problem.  And for the USA, the kind of independent and more or less prosperous Ukraine which Russia would have been happy to have as a neighbor was absolutely unacceptable.  If Russia wanted a "Ukrainian Finland", the USA wanted a "Ukrainian Poland".  That is something which Russia cannot allow to happen.  So, in strategic terms, the three key strategic goals for Russia are, by order of importance:

1. To prevent the creation of a "Banderastan" on Russia's borders
2. To avoid being sucked into an overt military intervention
3. To protect the people of Novorossia

Two comments about these goals:

First, you will notice that if the choice comes down to an overt military intervention and the creation of a Banderastan on the western border of Russia a military intervention is preferable, at least in my opinion.  I have no way of knowing whether the folks in the Kremlin would agree with me or not, but my sense is that that would if only because of the long-term consequences of having a Banderastsan along over 2'000km of its western border and less than 500km from downtown Moscow.  So make no mistake - Russia will intervene militarily in Novorossia if there is absolutely no other choice.  Even if that means a risk of war with NATO.  Even if that means a war with NATO.  For Russia, this is not an elective conflict, but an existential threat and there is a national consensus on that.

Second, there is the issue of human rights and the plight of the people of Novorossia. 

Considering how many of us have become disillusioned with our fellow human being and cynics about any and all politicians, I won't even go into the "brother nations" argument, nor will I claim that Putin, Lavrov or anybody else in the Kremlin sincerely cares about the atrocities committed against what are, of course, really fellow Russians who happened to live in what is called "the Ukraine" because of Soviet internal administrative borders.  I personally am convinced that Putin and Lavrov really do care - but I will not use that personal belief of mine as an argument.  I will use only a fully pragmatic argument which is fully compatible with the hypothesis that the folks in the Kremlin care only about their own narrow self-interest.  And the argument is this:

There is a lot of pent-up rage and outrage in Russia.  Unlike the western MSM, the Russian media is full of daily reports about the atrocities committed by the Ukie death squads.  Day after day after day the Russians see neo-Nazi thugs marching around Kiev, Odessa and other cities with neo-Nazi symbols, they see the bombed out houses of Slaviansk and Kramatorsk, they see the endless interviews with maimed civilians and terrified refugees.  Day after day after day the most famous Russian journalists and reporters openly pour out their scorn and disgust for the lying bastards of the junta in Kiev, the the West's endless double-standards, on the fact that there is apparently no such crime or action which the West would not approve of as long as it is committed by neo-Nazis and against Russians.  So whether Putin, Lavrov & Co. are bleeding hearts or cynical politicians makes no difference at all: they cannot, repeat, cannot, ignore the atrocities committed by the Ukie death-squads in Novorossia.  So far, Putin's ratings are sky high (in the 80% range), but this can change, rapidly if events get out of hands.  Furthermore, while the current three official "opposition" parties are more or less a joke (LDPR and Just Russia will fall in line if/when needed, the Communists are really a lame joke), there are other parties being formed right now who have a huge political potential, such as Starikov's "Great Fatherland Party".  And Putin is acutely aware that the only real danger to his rule comes not from the completely tiny discredited "liberal" "non-system" opposition parties (no more than 1%-3% of popular support) or from the hopelessly antiquated and clueless "official" or "system" opposition parties, but from the "next generation" young, dynamic and visionary parties lead not by clowns, but by very sharp young men like Starikov (don't judge all Russian Communists by the likes of Zyuganov!).  And, remember, Putin did promise to intervene and protect the people of Novorossia if a real bloodbath begins there.  So this is why I do believe that protecting the people of Novorossia (point #3 above) is crucial even if we assume that Putin would be willing to betray and sacrifice the Russian population of the Donbass (which, again, I personally do not believe!).

At this point the Russian policy becomes, I think, clear: to covertly support the resistance movement of Novorossia without yielding any proof of intervention which could be used by the AngloZionists to demonize Russia (they already do that, but with very little credibility in the public opinion).

Now that we have identified the strategic goals of both sides, we can look at the methods (tactics) they are using to achieve them.

TACTICAL LEVEL ANALYSIS

On the US side the plan is simple: to provoke Russia in every possible way.  So far these have include (in no special order):

• Recognition of an illegal regime which came to power with violence.
• Support for a neo-Nazi regime.
• Massive anti-Russian propaganda.
• Limitless amount of double-standards.
• Repeated kidnapping of fully accredited journalists.
• Whitewashing of massacres (Odessa, Mariupol).
• Support for armed assaults on opposition politicians (Tsarev).
• Murder of political opponents (murdered Communists Party members).
• Attacks on political parties (torched Communist Party offices).
• Illegal use of cluster bombs on civilians.
• Illegal use of White Phosphorus on civilians.
• Use of heavy weapons against entire towns.
• Assault and murder of opposition journalists
• Attacks on the Russian Embassy in Kiev
• Overt glorification of Stepan Bandera by Ukie officials
• Blocking by the AngloZionists of Russian UNSC Resolution condemning the attack on its embassy
• Denial of anti-Jewish hatred amongst the Ukie nationalists
• Invention of anti-Jewish feelings in Novorossia
• Car-bombing of Novorossian officials
• Probable use of gas in the Odessa massacre
• Creation of a hysterically russophobic campaign in the MSM
• Attempts at imposing sanctions on Russia
• Covert sending by NATO countries of fixed and rotary wing aircraft
• Covert use of several hundred western mercenaries (Academi)
• Massacres of wounded soldiers in a hospital
• Sniper killing of random civilians
• Systematic rejection of any negotiations with the people of Novorossia
• Almost systematic rejection of any negotiation with Russia
• Systematic violation of any agreement reached with Russia
• Bombing of churches and hospitals (just happened in the last 24 hours)
• Refusal to provide real escape corridors for trapped civilians
• Illegal cutting-off of water supplies to Crimea (now provided from Russia courtesy of the corps of Russian military engineers)

This is not a full list, of course, just those events which first came to my mind.  Connecting the dots here is easy: to provoke Russia at all costs.  Well, provoke it does.  Does that achieve anything else? Specifically, if we take a more "macro" point of view and ask ourselves this: if we accept that the Ukie goal of war in Novorossia is to get the Russians to intervene and if we accept that the Russian goal is to stay out, and if we finally accept that the crucial factor which will eventually decide of the outcome is the ability of the Novorossians to defend themselves without overt Russian intervention - then who does the tactical scorecard look?

From my point of view - one of an ex-military analyst - I would say that I am extremely unimpressed by the junta's performance so far.

The junta's death squads have used all the means at their disposal to try to terrorize the people of Novorossia: they began with baseball bats, then knives, then guns, they assault-rifles, then machine guns, then heavy machine guns, then mortars, then heavy mortars, then regular artillery, then multiple rocket launchers, then attack helicopters, then attack aircraft, then cluster munitions, now even white phosphorus.  And what did they achieve in military terms:

1) they are more or less holding an airport and one hill near Slaviansk/Kramatorsk
2) they have taken Krasnyi Liman (and committed a massacre in its hospital)
3) they apparently have 1000 or so men surrounded in the Lugansk airport

That's it.  They could not even take Slaviansk!  This is with force ratios anywhere between 5:1 to 100:1, with heavy firepower, armor and total air supremacy.  Sub-pathetic, really...

And, in the process, they have lost hundreds of soldiers who defected to the other side - often with weapons - they have gotten a huge number of their own conscripts killed, one group of senior "Alpha" officers was caught and several paratrooper recon units were made prisoner (the latest one yesterday).  In Lugansk Ukie forces appear surrounded and the latest shooting down of an Il-76 by the NDF air defense forces was part of a desperate attempt of the junta to free these forces or, at least, to resupply them.  In fact, there are all the signs of a desperate movement by land of Ukrainian armor and infantry to break through these units some of which, according to unconfirmed reports, have already switched sides.

As for the Novorossian Defense Forces (NDF), they now clearly have a solid air-defense network up and running, they seem to have plenty of weapons (even though they still lack some specific types) and most, but not all, of these weapons are truly trophy weapons taken from the Ukies (such as the 3 T-64 tanks recently shown in the news).  The initial trickle of volunteers has slowly but steadily become larger (including volunteers from Russia proper) and the NDF is now clearly enjoying some fancy systems which could have only have been provided by Russia (electronic warfare, advanced anti-air systems, etc.).  Yes, there are lots of Ukie tanks around Luganks, but as late as this morning a senior NDF officer in the area has said that "we can hold them for at least several months".  Finally, and for the very first time, there are signs that the NDF are mounting offensive operations.

I am basing all of the above on admittedly partial information, but to me all the signs are clear and point to one and only one reality: the Ukie offensive is going absolutely nowhere and unless Uncle Sam comes up with a dramatic way of changing the face of the battle, Novorossia will probably withstand the Ukie assault without over Russian intervention.

(TEMPORARY) CONCLUSION:

So far, I see the strategic-level scorecard for the AnlgoZionist as a complete failure.  As for the tactical-level scorecard, it is probably too early to call, but I would say that it looks like the Empire is headed for a complete defeat.  Of course, these are temporary conclusions and I don't want to sound like Dubya with his notorious "Mission accomplished".  But I think that for all of us who get sick in their stomachs each time we hear of the latest Ukie atrocity it is important to keep in mind that so far the neo-Nazis and their AngloZionist masters are losing and that there is no reason to suspect that this trend will somehow reverse itself in the foreseeable future.

We have to also always keep in mind that "lukewarm" as it may be, this is a major war of planetary importance because as Dugin correctly points it is the future of Russia, and therefore of all of Eurasia, which is being decided.  Russian parity (I would even argue superiority) in strategic nuclear weapons have made a hot war impossible (at least for a rational actor), but that does not mean that both sides are not engaged in this apparently "lukewarm" war with every bit of energy and power they got! What we are witnessing today is nothing short of a major struggle for survival between the AngloZionist Empire and the "Eurasian project" (for lack of a better word) centered around Russia and China and their attempt to replace the old order by new, multi-polar, dollar-independent, militarily balanced one.  Hegemony vs collective security for the entire planet is what is at stake.  This is why every time we listen to the latest reports out of Novorossia we have to constantly keep in mind that in reality this is a US-Russian war over the future international order of the planet and not an "ethnic civil war".

As you know, I have been living with a knot in my stomach for weeks now, and with each additional report about the neo-Nazi atrocities committed against the people of Novorossia I get more desperate, more angry and more frustrated.  And I have to admit that if the Russians finally openly intervene and beat the crap out of the Ukie death squads (which won't last 24 hours against a real military force) I won't be able to contain myself - I will open a bottle of champagne and dance with my wife across the house.  But I also know that the right thing to do is keep our "eyes on the prize" and let this abomination I called "Banderstan" self-destruct without any over Russian help.  The latest attack on the Russian embassy in Kiev is not only an outrageous violation of the Vienna Convention, it is also a fantastic admission of impotence, of powerlessness, of irrelevance really.  Think of it, a crowd of neo-Nazi thugs overturns a few cars and tosses eggs and stones at an embassy building in downtown Kiev and all the Ukie authorities can do is to order the cops to move out of the way and to send the deputy Foreign Minister to express his support for the crowd.  "Слава Україні — Героям Слава" (glory to the Ukraine - to the Heroes Glory!) indeed - some heroic Ukie nationalism at work, there is an "operation" the Ukies can be proud of, something to add to the pantheon of Ukrainian national pride.

[They are as pathetic as they are disgusting, of course.  I really wonder how any putative "sane Ukrainian" can live without dying of a combination of shame and self-disgust.  But then, that ain't my problem, thank God.]

There is probably more of that sickening Ukie mix of atrocities and buffoonery on the way.  Normal civilized people cannot imagine the kind of stuff that these hate-filled psychopaths can come up with.  Frankly, I would not put it past them to try an air or missile strike on, say, a kindergarten in Crimea or even in Belgorod.  They could also kidnap a delivery man for a Russian company still operating in Kiev or heroically massacre of minibus with an Aeroflot crew on the way to the airport.  Whatever!  We have to accept the inevitability of such actions because this is all this junta can do - they simply have no civilized diplomatic, commercial, military or other means to prevail against Russia and their own people.  But always always keep this in mind: with each such action the Ukies are confessing to their own impotence while digging their own grave.

So even if "ще не вмерла україна" ("the Ukraine is not dead yet" - from the Ukie "national anthem" with words copied from the Polish one and a melody composed by [what else?] a Uniat priest),  it's days are counted and, as doctors like to say, the prognosis is poor.

The Saker 

CrossTalk: Schizophrenic Kiev

Poroshenko's message to Novorossiia and Russia

Poroshenko's inauguration speech has sent a  message to Novorossiia and Russia:

• No federalization
• No state status for the Russian language
• No recognition of the Novorossian political leadership
• Full and unconditional surrender of the Novorossian Defense Forces
• Crimea will forever belong to the Ukraine.

He could not have been any clearer: that is basically a declaration of war and an ultimatum.  This is also a full endorsement of the "Banderastan project".

Clearly, the US has prevailed over the hoplessly spineless EU leaders like Merkel or Hollande and the AngloZionists will have their way.

I must leave my computer for the next 12 hours and I cannot write a full analysis of Poroshenko's decision to fully follow the US line, but I will say that two things appear inevitable now: a Russian military intervention in Novorossia followed by the Cold War v2 the AngloZionists wanted so badly.  Up until this moment the European colonies still had a chance to avoid a future which will hurt them much more than it will hurt the US or Russia, but they could not even muster the willpower to protect their own vital interests.

I am disgusted beyond words.

The Saker

Does Russia really need the Ukrainian military-industrial complex?

I really like the Asia Times, but the article I saw in it today left me wondering how it could have gotten past the editors. The article in question is Ukraine: A military-industrial complex to die for by Gregory J Moore. While I most definitely encourage you to read the article in its entirety, its thesis is simple: the Ukrainian military-industrial complex is, if not vital, then at least crucial for Russia. Moore gives several examples which I want to quote here:

1) Antonov is not a Russian aircraft manufacturer, its Ukrainian
2) The Ukraine builds many aircraft and helicopter engines
3) The Ukraine builds missiles, rockets and the SS18
4) The Ukraine accounts for 30% of the USSR's shipbuilding industry
5) The Ukraine builds APCs and tanks including the T-84
6) The Ukraine builds air-to-air, surface-to-air and cruise missiles
 
And all this is true.  So what is the problem here?

The problem is that all the examples Moore gives are Soviet-era systems.  Even the T-84 is nothing but an upgraded T-80.  The Ukraine, just like Russia, has inherited a lot of top-quality Soviet technologies.  These technologies were, in fact, so good, that both the Ukraine and Russia could literally "coast" for almost 20 years on that technological basis without really developing any truly new systems.  A good example of that is the SS-18 missile which is still one of the most powerful ones on the planet.  But it's design is really late 1950s early 1960s technology and it runs on liquid fuel.  And yet the Russian Ministry of Defense recently wanted to purchase more of these missile.  Why?  Money: the Ukrainians were willing to sell them cheap.  Now the deal appears dead, much to the delight of the Russian military which did not want that missile to begin with, but which had been told that it was the cheaper solution to a more expensive but also more modern purely Russian alternative.

And here is the key issue here: Russia does not need the Ukrainian MIC, Russia could produce all it needs indigenously, but that would be more expensive.  So why spend more when you can spend less and use the difference in developing other sectors?

When the Soviet Union broke apart Russia lost not only the Ukraine but another 13 republics many of which had Soviet MIC resources and many have wondered whether Russia could go by without them.  The test of that proposition is simple: can Russia produce completely new weapon systems or not?  And the clear answer is yes - Russia can and Russia has.

Take, for example, the new Russian submarines (Borei-class or Yasen-class), new combat aircraft (Su-34 of PAKFA), new tanks (Armata), new ICBMs (SS-27) or SLBMs (SS-N-32).  Now, of course, since the weapons-design cycle is very long, all these systems have their origins in Soviet designs, and some might even have part purchased from the Ukraine (or other ex-Soviet states).  But the fact that Russia assembled, tested and deployed these systems proves that Russia has the technological know-how to control all the technologies used in them.  This is especially true of very complex systems like submarines or advanced combat aircraft.  For the general military, the goal is to have the Russian armed forces equipped with new military systems for 70% of all its equipment by 2020.  That is ambitious but doable.

At least two top Russian weapons experts (Dmitri Rogozin and Igor Korotchenko) have addressed the issue of the importance of the Ukrainian MIC and, on one occasion, even Putin himself.  All three were categorical: a possible "loss" of the Ukrainian MIC for Russia is not a problem for Russia at all, but the perfect opportunity to allocate the funds needed to develop indigenous and much more modern capabilities in Russia.  This is exactly the same situation as with the western credit card companies: the US sanctions provided Russia with a much needed pretext and opportunity to develop a Russian credit card system which, as it has been announced in Shanghai, will be compatible with the Chinese one.

Speaking of China: China is the *perfect* partner for Russia in nearly all economic terms, especially in the military-industrial cooperation.  And, unlike the Ukrainian technologies, the Chinese technologies are far more modern, if probably more expensive.

Putin and Medvedev have already set as a strategic goal for Russia to become fully independent from foreign suppliers for all its strategic needs. Dumping the Ukrainian MIC is just a logical step towards this goal. It is an opportunity for Russia, not a problem.

Moore concludes by saying that "The value and importance of Ukraine's military industrial complex to Russia is an important reason Moscow will not let go of eastern and southern Ukraine, and consequently it may be that sanctions alone will not be enough to make Putin back down."  I completely disagree.  Not only does Russia not "want" the Ukraine or even the Donbass, it is going out of its way to avoid having to "own" it (following a hypothetical intervention).  The very last thing Russia needs is to have to support a huge population working on 20-year old technologies which nobody wants and which Russia does not really need.  By the way, and for the very same reasons, neither does the EU or US need to Ukrainain MIC: they have their own which is much more modern and which they control.

I will say it again and again and again.  Russia does not need the Ukraine, not its lands, not its MIC, not its coal and not its people.  What was true in 1991 is not true any more in 2014.  Furthermore, the Ukrainian oligarchs have truly destroyed the whole country and laid waste to its MIC: did you know that the top 50 Ukrainian oligarchs own 50% of the Ukraine's GDP?  It is mind boggling, really.  Or why do you think that the Ukrainians are still using (old) Mi-24s used in Africa by the UN instead of their own helicopters?  Because that is all that they have left, literally!  Recently, when the Russians took control of Crimea they found out that even the most prestigious youth camp (Artek) was in a state of total abandonment. The oligarchs neglected even that jewel.

For years Russia had tried to make some kind of deal with the Ukrainians to develop a very interesting advanced transport aircraft: the AN-70.  But the Ukrainian politicians were making such ridiculous demands that the Russians eventually walked away in disgust (they ended up making a deep upgrade the IL-76 and they are now developing a wide-body long range transport aircraft with China which will probably have civilian and military variants).  So even if Yanukovich was still in power, how could Russia trust such completely unreliable partners?

The sad reality is that the Russians cannot trust the Ukrainians with anything. Not even paying their bills, nevermind participating in strategic military-industrial projects.  For that Russia now has China.  Let the EU "enjoy" its new found partnership with the Ukraine.  Good luck to them!

The Saker

Russia, Chechnia and the Ukraine - the *choice* to keep hoping for the impossible

As you probably know, the two Russian journalists who worked for the LifeNews, Oleg Sidyakin and Marat Saichenko, were finally freed and brought back home via Grozny in Chechnia.  You might even have heard that the President of Chechnia, Ramzan Kadyrov, played a special role in their liberation.  I think that the importance of this event might be under-estimated by many observers and I want to briefly comment on that.

It all really began in Crimea where, before the operation of the Russian Polite Armed Men in Green (PAMG), when there were some very serious tensions between the various parties including the Muslim Tatars.  At that time, Ramzan Kadyrov for the first time made a statement from faraway Grozny saying that he will not tolerate any "abuses against the Chechen" minority in Crimea.  Since there are not all that many Chechens in Crimea and since soon thereafter PAMG solved the problem anyway, this statement was rapidly forgotten.  But think again, besides being a statement in support of the Chechens in Crimea, who was that statement directed against?  Clearly, the threatened party was not the pro-Russian one, but the pro-Ukrainian forces, including those Tatars (mainly linked to Turkey) who had been manipulated by the USA to take action against the pro-Russian population of Crimea.  It is now clear that what happened in this instance is that Kadyrov did openly say that which Putin could not (for obvious political reasons).  In the end, it was Putin who eventually engaged his PAMG, but it was Kadyrov who had made the threat.

This time again, Kadyrov got involved by issuing an amazing statement which most commentators overlooked.  Here is what he said about the two kidnapped reporters:

The Ukraine's leadership continues to use Fascist methods. We demand the immediate release of Sidyakin and Saychenko. If the folks in Kiev don't come back to their senses and do not let these journalists go back home, we will not stand by in silence and watch as mock them, for them to their knees and keep them with bags on their heads. We have the forces and the capabilities to influence those who are holding these journalists in captivity. I therefore advise them to free these journalists or otherwise we will have resort to some tough actions.

I don't know about you, but when I read that I went "wow!".  There is a Chechen President (who is also and-ex warlord) who is clearly giving the Ukies an ultimatum which they better not ignore.  They didn't.

During 4 days of secret negotiations a group of Chechen negotiators sent by Kadyrov flew to Kiev in his personal jet and had some very frank conversations with the right people in Kiev.  The Chechens probably used the typical mix of threats and bribes to prevail and, as a direct result of this operation, the two reporters were freed.

What is very interesting, is that there is mounting evidence that Putin was involved all along even though he never said a word about it.  First, it is well know that Putin is personally very close to Kadyrov and that a strong friendship binds these two men who have immense respect for each other.  But now we can also make sense of a comment made by Putin who declared that the kidnapped journalists were kept in a "zindan" (a prison hole in the ground), something which he apparently learned through Kadyrov's people in Kiev.  Finally, one has to know Kadrov's quasi obsession in stressing at every step that he is always acting exclusively with the full support of the Kremlin to completely exclude the possibility of a unilateral action on Kadyrov's side.

This time again, Kadyrov said that which Putin could not say.

It was also interesting for me to hear the testimony of the two reporters who told that they understood that something dramatic had changed in their condition when they heard a voice pick up the phone and say "salaam aleikum".  Soon thereafter their handcuffs were taken off and they were told "take off the hood off your heads, you are safe now, you are under the protection of the President of Chechnia".

Why do I consider this so important?

Because the image of Chechnia and the Chechens is radically changing in Russia.  The media openly calls Kadyrov a hero and Russian citizens rejoice when they hear the Islamic "salaam aleikum" because they know that they are now safe.  This is huge!  What a change from only 10 years ago.

Kadyrov in reality plays a role which is a much bigger one than "just" the President of Chechnia (and a hugely successful one at that!).  He is clearly Putin's "ally number 1", especially in security matters, and the two men clearly work closely together as a kind of "tag team".  This kind of special role does a lot to restore the pride of the Chechen people and it also does a lot to change the terrible image many Russians had of Chechens as a result of the horrors of the time when Chechnia was ruled by psychopathic Wahabis.  Instead of being "terrorist barbarians" the Chechens are now increasingly seen as tough and reliable allies of Russia and of the Russian President.

As for the Chechens, they are still feared, but this time outside Russia.  During the 08.08.08 war the Georgians ran as fast as they could as soon as they heard that the Chechen battalion had arrived.  Nowadays, the Ukraine is full of rumors that Chechens have arrived to support the Donetsk and Lugansk republics.  To my knowlege this has not happened (yet?) and apparently there is some confusion between a "Vostok battalion" (Eastern battalion) in the Ukraine and the Chechen "Vostok battalion" which saw action in 08.08.08.  The former is composed of local volunteers from the Donbass while the latter is now formally part of the 291st Motor-Rifle regiment of the 42nd Guard Motor-Rifle Division of the Russian armed forces.  But I would not put it past Kadyrov to send in Chechen special forces as "volunteers" into the Donbass if things get really ugly there. Of course,  the key thing would be to get Putin's go ahead for such a move.

I find that absolutely remarkable.  By 2000 Chechnia was in ruins, a huge amount of Chechens had been killed, Grozny was was completely destroyed and plans were made to abandon the city and build a new capital elsewhere.  Almost all western experts were unanimous in their conclusion that the guerrilla war and terrorism operations would never stop and that Chechnia would become a "constantly bleeding wound in the soft underbelly of Russia" or some equally stupid cliche.  Now, 14 years later, Grozny is a superb city, traditional Islam has completely replaced Wahabism, Chechen terrorists and warlords have all been eliminated one by one, Chechnia has a very low crime rate, French actor Gerard Depardieu has an apartment in downtown Grozny, Russians increasingly see Chechens as their toughest and most dependable allies and the enemies of Russia literally tremble in fear at the possibility that "the Chechens might come".  Who could have ever imagined that?!

Will that be enough to heal the wounds of the past?

I don't know for sure, but I fervently hope so.  For one thing I will always blame the regime of Eltsin and his Jewish oligarchs more than Dudaev and his Chechen followers for the first Chechen war.  True, what the Chechens did during and after that war was simply beyond barbaric and I fully supported the 2nd Chechen war in which Russia simply did what had to be done (and did so brilliantly).  So I believe that both sides share the guilt and the pain of what happened.  Still, Russia is so much bigger and more powerful that the Chechens who had no chance as soon as the Russian people supported the military action (which was not the case in the first Chechen war) and I believe that Akhmad Kadyrov had the wisdom to see that this war would end up in the quasi-total elimination of the Chechen people and that it had to be stopped.  I think that Putin also understood this and that he believed that such an outcome would also be a disaster for Russia.  So these two men did the unthinkable and stopped a war which was about to turn into a total war until one side would wipe out the other.  It is as easy for me to write these terrible words as it is for you to read them.  But think about it, we are truly talking about an unspeakable horror which almost happened.  And the murder of Akhmad Kadyrov could have made this outcome inevitable had it not been for his son Ramzan who replaced his father and did an absolutely brilliant job to make his dream come true: Chechnia today is both Islamic and free.  It has a huge degree of autonomy, but it also is the most faithful and strongest ally of the Russian President.  I would even say that Chechnia is the single most important factor of stability in the entire Caucasus region.

I am under no illusion about the possibility of a "Ukrainian Kadyrov" appearing on the world scene anytime soon.  But if such a miracle could happen in Chechnia, I want to at least hope that it is possible in a future Ukraine, one freed from oligarchs and Nazis as much as Chechnia is now Wahabi-free.

Hope dies last and this is a hope I simply want to keep in my heart, no matter how naive it might seem to the "realists" out there.  I don't want to believe that a "Banderastan" can survive in what is a Christian holy land for which literally millions of people died to keep in Orthodox and free.  Right now the picture out of the Ukraine is a terrible one.  But Chechnia in 2000 was even worse.  So I will keep hoping.

The Saker