Ukraine SITREP September 18, 17:30 UTC/Zulu: infighting everywhere

The situation in the Ukraine today is one of chaotic infighting in Novorussia and Banderastan.

Novorussia:

Aleksandr Zakharchenko

The first sign of trouble became visible with Strelkov had to urgently come back to Donetsk to prevent the behind-the-scenes negotiations apparently taking place between some officials of the DNR and Ukie oligarchs including Akhmetov.  Then came the news of the sudden removal of Strelkov followed by an almost simultaneous removal of most of the Novorussian leadership.  In spite of that, the Novorussian leadership (Zakharchenko & Co.) appeared to be more than worthy successors to Strelkov and they did a stellar job implementing the counter-offensive plans apparently developed by Strelkov.  Then came the Minsk negotiations with little-covered reports of an attempted coup by Vladimir Antiufeev who, before that, had been in charge of state security under Strelkov.  Apparently, this coup was directed at Zakharchenko and it failed.  What then happened to Antiufeev is still unclear, at least to me.  Last I read he was being interrogated.

Aleksandr Khodakovskii

Then, this week, something really bizarre happened: first, a very controversial figure - Bezler - was appointed by somebody (it is still unclear by whom exactly) as the Head of the Intelligence Service of Novorussia.  Soon after, it was also announced that four top military commanders - Bezler, Khodakovskii and two *unknown figures* (?) - had agreed that all the Novorussian Armed Forces would be placed under the command of General Korsun.  Problem: nobody had ever heard of any "General Korsun" and even the Speaker of the Novorussian Parliament, Oleg Tsarev, declared that the political leadership of Novorussia had not been consulted about these plans.  As for Strelkov, he expressed his total lack of info about Korsun.  Weird, to say the least.  And most definitely not good.

It appears that a number of distinct but linked processes are simultaneously taking place:

1) a militia force composed of volunteers is being transformed into a regular army under a single military command subordinated to political authorities.  At least, that is the theory, but so far this has not been achieved.

2) various military Novorussian commanders have different views on key issues (such as the Minsk Agreement) and personal ambitions (Khodakovski?).

3) Moscow is exerting pressure on the Novorussian leaders to get them to comply with the Kremlin's policies.

4) Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs are also exerting their own influence to get an outcome favorable to their financial interests.

These are four distinct processes and not one single factor and those who present a simplistic "single explanation" model are simply missing the complexity of the situation.  That does not, however, make the situation any better.

Vladimir Antiufeev

The direct consequence of that is that Novorussia still does not have a single and uncontested leader.  My personal feeling is that there is a Strelkov-Zakharchenko alliance which is both the most legitimate and the most capable, but other big actors (Bezler, Khodakovski) are still trying hard to promote their own agenda.  Rumor now has it that Antiufeev and Bezler are under arrest.  Whatever may be the case, the political infighting and chaos in Novorussia are a most serious problem which somebody (Strelkov?  Putin?) will have to urgently fix.

Russia:

Vladislav Surkov

I have seen a lot of speculations that the "éminence grise" behind a lot of that malfeasance is Vladislav Surkov, a weasely character of the entourage of Putin but whose views seem to often run directly in opposition to Putin's.  I have seen no direct proof of that, but I have no reason to doubt much better informed individuals (including Strelkov).  Surkov or no Surkov, there is definitely an interest group out there referred to as "5th column", the "party of peace", the "party of betrayal" or, my own favorite, the Atlantic Integrationists whose agenda is simple: stop the war in the Ukraine and restore the putatively "good" relationship between Russia and the West.  Their motives are a mix of ideology (pro-western russophobia, capitalist liberalism) financial (they stand to lose most from not only the western sanctions, but from a deterioration of relationship between Russia and the West) and personal (struggle for power to re-take the Kremlin from the Eurasian Sovereignists).

Vladimir Evtushenkov

In this context I have seen a lot of speculation that the recent move against multi-billionaire Vladimir Evtushenkov (often described as the new Khodorkovski) is Putin's counter-attack to smack down the oligarchs.  Could be, and Peskov's denial of anything political behind his arrest are as predictable as they are not credible.  It would be worth seeing if there is a Evtushenkov-Surkov connection, but I don't have the means to do that myself.  Still, judging by the reaction of the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs (RSPP), Alexander Shokhin, it is clear that the Russian oligarchy is upset and even frightened by this arrest.

So much for the stupid theory that Putin represents the interests of the Russian oligarchy or, even better, is the "puppet" of these oligarchs.

Banderastan:

The junta controlled part of the Ukraine (I call Banderastan) is in full turmoil.  The Minsk Agreement as absolutely infuriated most of the Ukie political leaders.  Predictably, Iarosh and Tiagnibok are up in arms, the former even threatening to overthrow Poroshenko.  Worse, Timoshenko has made something of a comeback denouncing the Agreement as a vile surrender to the Moskals and a sellout of Ukie national interests.

Rada Deputy tossed in trashbin

Right Sector activists have attempted to storm the Parliament and the Presidency, they have literally tossed deputies into trashbins which is both funny and amply deserved, but does not change the scary fact that Poroshenko is not the worst of what Banderastan can produce.  Poroshenko is evil, of course, but at least he is not a lunatic like Timoshenko or Liashko.

There is now a very real risk that the Right Sector could literally overthrow the Poroshenko regime (Libya anybody?).  And even if the Right Sector does no such thing, of fails doing it, the upcoming elections are nothing short of really scary.  With the massive brainwashing going on throughout the Ukie media there is a real risk of a wall-to-wall "loony" Rada with Liashko in charge of the biggest party and assorted neo-Nazis filling the rest of the seats.

Nazis vs oligarchs

There is a clash taking place between oligarch and sincere/zombified Nazis on one hand, and even between oligarchs (Poroshenko vs Kolomoiski vs Akmetov) on the other.  Thus, in a paradoxical way, both Novorussia and Banderastan don't currently have a real, functioning, central power and neither side can "deliver" anything.

And if that does not scare you enough, keep in mind that the Ukie economy, propped up by the AngloZionists, has not truly collapsed yet.  But it will.  Soon.  Then things will get really, really ugly.  The examples of Iraq and Libya immediately come to mind.  In fact, Putin recently declared the following at the Seliger 2014 annual youth forum:

Do you remember the joke: "Whatever Russians make, they always end up with a Kalashnikov?" I get an impression that whatever Americans touch they always end up with Libya or Iraq.

Apparently, he is absolutely right and Banderastan is now headed down the exact same road.  Truth be told, there is only that long that the AngloZionists can keep Poroshenko in power and the remnants of economy of Banderastan afloat.  Sooner or later - probably sooner - both will come tumbling down and then all hell will truly break lose

In the meantime, "Iats" has announced the "lustration" (purge) of the estimated 1'000'000 civil servants connected with the previous regime.  Apparently, this does not including Poroshenko, Timoshenko, Turchinov or "Iats" himself (all of whom have served under previous Presidents in one capacity or another).

Crazy, crazy shit...

Military situation:

Military situation September 15-17

To my great surprise, a Ukie counter-offensive did not materialize or, if it did, it was so lame that it was hard to notice.  The Ukies did concentrate very large forces in several locations, and the JRF did execute attacks in several locations, but they were lame and rather rapidly repelled.  As for those few locations which were taken under the control of the JRF, they were mostly locations which the NAF had abandoned.  My source for this analysis is "Basketok" (whose excellent and detailed daily reports Russian speakers can get here and here).

Amazingly, the NAF have still not taken full control of the Donetsk Airport.  They have surrounded it and they control most, but not all of it.  As for the Ukies there, they are categorically refusing to surrender and they are still shelling Donetsk on a daily basis.  I can only explain this aberration as a consequence of the political infighting taking place in the Novorussian leadership.

One of the most likely explanation of the current is one given by the (excellent) Colonel Cassad:

With respect to concentration, the main forces of the junta are already deployed into Donbass. The junta cannot grow the group substantially yet. Taking the planned rotation of the detachments and the combat capable units that were pulled into the front into account, the junta can reinforce its group only by throwing restored battalion-tactical groups of previously routed detachments into action. However, their combat qualities appear quite dubious due to large losses in personnel and materiel. In essence, absent the 4-th wave of mobilization, the junta cannot substantially increase the headcount of its group, which remains approximately on the level of early July of 2014. Considering the failure of the previous 3 waves of mobilization, the possible results of the 4-th also trigger certain skepticism. The junta, of course, isn't close to the limiting values of its mobilization potential, but it is already experiencing serious difficulties. All of this is aggravated by materiel issues: by various estimates, the junta lost about 60-70% of materiel present in Donbass (and the worst thing for the junta is that more than 220 armored vehicles of varying degree of combat readiness ended up being captured by the NAF, which already put between a quarter and a third of captured trophies into action).  Of course, there are still many tanks, IFVs, SPH, and MLRS in warehouses and repair facilities, but reinforcements in August and September couldn't compensate for huge losses. The attempts of getting materiel from NATO countries and the attempts to buy back the vehicles that were shipped on international defense contracts are supposed to close the gap in materiel that was formed. Ukraine continues to reap the fruits of its horrible looting of Soviet military legacy.

This makes sense.  The JRF did through its best men and equipment in its attempt to crush Novorussia in just a "few weeks" and it lost them.  There are still numerically significant resources available to them, as shown by the large concentrations of forces they have massed but failed to effectively use so far.

As for the NAF, they have made some small progress in various locations, and they have made small retreats from others, but nothing crucial has taken place on their side either.  Does that mean that the NAF and JRF have fought each other to a standstill?  Maybe, I don't know and have no way to check.  Still, my first explanation for this apparent stagnation on the military front is that both sides are too deeply involved in the the political infighting and the chaos resulting from it.

Those whom I jokingly refer to "prophets and mind readers" will probably make confident predictions based, as always, on simplistic models, but I won't.   I know what Putin wants and Russia needs: regime change in Kiev.  I also know what Putin does not want or Russia cannot afford: a Novorussian collapse.  The two, of course, are linked.  But how the situation will evolve now is too early to call.

I often think that the (liberal, Masonic, pro-western, democratic and oligarchic) Kerensky regime came to power in February.  Just like the Ukie Junta.  Kerensky was overthrown in October of the same year.  Just saying...

Kind regards,

The Saker

September 4th 23:53 UTC/ZULU Ukraine SITREP: Maybe, just maybe?

Many major developments to report today.  First, though I was trying very hard to contain my excitement over the past days, the level of success the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) against the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) appears to be absolutely amazing and, should Mariupol fall, which appears to be likely, I would speak of a strategic victory, something which I am normally extremely reluctant to do, especially when speaking to a force which only recently was a volunteer militia force.  How could that possibly have happened?

Military situation:

I think that there is a second expression which now can be used without exaggeration: all the signs are that the JRF have reached their breaking point: this is the moment when a military force suddenly and completely collapses, like a damn which blows out under the pressure of water.  The JRF is not retreating on one, two or even three directions, it is retreating everywhere (except north of Lugansk).  Entire battalions are leaving the front under orders of their battalion commanders and without the approval of the Junta leaders.  At least one such battalion commander is already being judged for desertion.  The entire Ukie leadership seems to be in a panic mode, especially Iatseniuk and Kolomoiski, while the Nazis are mad as hell at the Poroshenko administration.  There are constant rumors of an anti-Poroshenko coup by outraged Nazi nationalists.  And then, there are the absolutely staggering Ukrainian losses.

[I have stricken out the following section due to protest by it's author who accused me of "grossly exaggerating" and "misrepresenting" his figures]

There is one such list which I reader sent me who, according to my reader, was published on Zero Hedge, but I could not find it there.  I did find it here though:

Ukrainian forces casualties and losses 2 May - 21 August
Casualties
Total: 32.702
Dead and wounded: 20.274
Prisoner, deserters and missing: 12.418
Destroyed or captured materiel:
I. Aviation
Attack
- 16 Su-25 (one captured 7 July)
Bomber
- 7 Su-24
Fighter
- 2 MiG-29
Recon
- 1 AN-30
- 6 drones
Transport
- 2 AN-26
- 2 IL 76
I.a Helicopters
- 20 attack and transport Mi-24, Mi-17 y Mi-8
II. Ground forces materiel
Tanks Total: 347 ( 68 captured )
- 319 T-64 ( 65 captured )
- 2 T-64 Bulat
- 7 T-72 ( 3 captured )
- 19 T-84-U Oplot
Armored vehicles Total: 602 ( 119 captured )
- 163 BMP Infantry Fighting Vehicle, tracked ( 69 capturados )
- 125 BMD IFV Paratroopers, tracked ( 9 captured )
- 312 BTR Armored Personnel Carrier, wheeled ( 39 captured )
- 2 BRDM Scout Vehicle, wheeled ( 2 captured )
Artillery Total: 180 ( 122 captured pieces )
- 4 SO-203 2S7 "Pion" 203mm
- 5 SAU 2S3 "Acacia" 152mm (1 captured )
- 30 SAU 122 2S1 Gvozdika 122mm ( 25 captured )
- 2 Mortars 2S4 Tyulpan 240mm(2 captured
- 6 Mortars SAU Nona 120mm (6 captured )
- 21 Antiaircraft guns ZU 23-2 ( 18 captured )
- 24 Rocket launcher Grad 122mm ( 24 captured )
- 11 Rocket launcher Uragan 220mm (4 captured )
- 45 howitzer D-30 122mm ( 10 captured )
- 32 mortars82mm ( 32 captured )
Trucks and cars Total: 153 (124 captured )
- 5 Hummer
- Jeep
- 25-66 GaZ
- Staff car
- Mobile crane
- 1 ZIL 131
- 2 KrAZ
- 58 Ural trucks
- 69 Kamaz trucks
- 4 UAZ 469
Last edited by von Junzt; 23 Aug 14 at 07:42. 

Now I am not endorsing this list since I don't even know who made it up or on what basis.  

But I will say that it is consistent with.  Check out this list and this one (thanks to GM for the link!!).   Finally, this list is also consistent with all the footage shown on the various video hosting sites such as YouTube.  I will even add that this list is clearly incomplete since it was made before the biggest Ukie losses occurred.  But let's not look at the exact numbers, let's look at the suggested magnitude.  This tells us that:

• 40'000+ Ukrainian soldiers have died.
• 600+ armored vehicles have been lost.
• 200+ artillery pieces have been lost (probably many more in reality).
• Most of the Ukie aviation in flying condition has been lost.

If, as it appears likely, the real number of dead JRF soldiers is anywhere near the 30'000+40'000+ figure, then this is something absolutely unique in modern warfare.  There might be an exception to this I have missed, but as far I can know in every single conflict since WWII (and including WWII), civilians have died in far greater numbers than combatants.  This is also absolutely true of NAF soldiers who have died in far smaller numbers than Novorussian civilians.  So unless these figures are completely off the mark, and I see no reason to believe this, the Junta forces were absolutely massacred in an horrible butchery which cannot completely be explained by the superb fighting skills of the Novorussians: clearly the Junta has used these forces as cannon fodder with not even a modicum of care, nevermind support, for them.  Yes, the Novorussians had God, morale, common sense, the Truth, the GRU, history, decency, international law, covert support from Russia and whatever else on their side but that does not explain the mind-boggling casualty figures of the Ukie side.

To me a life is a life, and a Ukie life is no less precious than a Russki life.  Yes, I am delighted and relieved that the JRF were defeated and that the horrors which the Novorussians had to live through will possibly end soon.  But I feel heartbroken and immensely said for the thousands of innocent Ukrainians who were used by their Junta and sent to die in the process of a criminal operation whose goal was the ethnically cleanse the entire Donbass of its population.  And I am proud and happy by the way Russia and the Novorussians have treated the Ukie deserters and POWs.  Even the worst ones, the artillery crews, which were shown videos of whom they murdered and of what they destroyed, they were confronted with their victims and sometimes they were ordered to work to rebuilt, as much as can be, the buildings which they had destroyed (some broke down in complete hysterics, by the way).  But they were no shot, tortured, mistreated in any way.  They received medical attention, they were washed, clothed, fed and eventually sent back home.  I consider that treatment another huge moral victory for the Russian Orthodox side whose effects it will take many years to fully access.

The bottom line is this: Poroshenko promised a victory in a matter of weeks and his forces suffered one of the most total defeats in the history of warfare.  Can the Ukies rearm?  Yes, to some degree.  Do they still have huge weapons stores?  Yes, but all the (comparatively) better gear has been used by now.  Can they still conduct a 4th, 5th and 6th mobilization?  Possibly.  Though the public mood is ominous at this time.  Can the AngloZionists send them instructors, equipment and money?  Yes.  Will that turn the tide?  Probably not.  Unless the Ukies have held back and secretly trained a large number of soldiers over the past 3-4 months (like the Novorussians have done in Russia) and unless these soldiers are now ready to be sent in, fully equipped and ready to go, I don't see the JRF bouncing back for a very long time.  But the most likely thing is that this ridiculous "Banderastan" experiment has seriously begun sinking now and that many rats are leaving the ship.  Last, but not least, for the very first time some mentally sane voices are being heard on Ukie TV.

For example, I have seen very interesting footage of a Ukie general (possibly retired) who, speaking in Russian, told a press conference that enough people had died and that it was wrong that people born in the same country, having the same culture and the same language (yes, he really said that!) were killing each other.  He concluded "we are not only tired of shooting, we are tired of killing".  That kind of talk was never heard only weeks ago on Ukie TV.  Sure, that creep Savik Shuster is still inviting Nazis on his 3 hour long weekly program, but I bet you that he has already made his suitcases and has an exist strategy ready (a move to Israel is what I suspect he will do).

NATO summit: the mouse that roared

It's too early to call this one since it's not over yet, but so far hot air and a general impression of irrelevance seems to be the only result from this summit.  First, the US and the UK have announced more sanctions which makes me wonder about the other countries.  Now they say the that US and EU will impose sanctions, but we know that the Czechs and Slovaks have promised to veto any such move.  But even if they do, this will be more of the kind of symbolic nonsense like banning Russian banks (who are leaving anyway) or Russian officials (who now see that as a mark of great honor).  The goofiest idea came from, what else, the British who want to cut Russia off the SWIFT network.  Which makes the Russians wonder how the EU wants to pay for its gas.  Oh, and then there is this 10'000 men rapid reaction force whose creation is supposed to terrify the Kremlin.  Let me tell you, as a military analyst, that rapid reaction forces are - by definition - not something you can use in a conventional war against a continental power like Russia with large number of men, artillery and armor.  That is absolutely laughable.  But even better is this: while the US and EU are discussing the creation of this force, Putin has already given the order to DOUBLE the size of the Russian Airborne Forces which, by the way, are superior (in training, equipment and capabilities) to any comparable western force, bar none.

art: Josetxo Ezcurra

Please understand me right: I am not dismissing NATO at all.  As a militarized political organization its capability for malevolence is immense, but this is primary a problem for the EU countries which, at best, are something between a US protectorate or colony, and who have to put up with the ugly consequences of being subservient to this fully US-controlled supra-national enforcement instrument.  For Russia the problem is the castrating effect NATO has on EU politicians as shown by the grotesquely stupid move by Francois Hollande to cancel (probably only *delay*) the delivery of the Mistrals to Russia.  That kind of nonsense is the real by-product of NATO membership, but that hardly makes NATO a credible military threat.

Speaking of Hollande and his decision to delay the delivery of the Mistrals, the BBC gave some figures of the costs involved for France:

A French diplomat earlier said the contract was suspended until November, and the delay "could cost us 1bn euros".  The deal is worth 1.2bn euros - and Russia is reported to have paid most of it, so breach of contract would mean France having to reimburse that money.  In addition, France would be liable for an extra 251m-euro penalty payment, French news website LCI reports. 

Of course, the real costs of this debacle is a huge loss of credibility for France and its international image.  It's is all very well to proudly say "la France! la France!" but when you act as a poodle you get treated like one.  In the polite world of international diplomacy nobody will say much, but everybody will know that everybody knows.  And, of course, none of that hurts Russia one bit.  At the most, the full complex of western "sanctions" against Russia are a short-term mild annoyance and a fantastic opportunity to finally tackle some much delayed and most urgently needed reforms.  Frankly, I think that these sanctions are a blessing and, apparently, so do most Russians (according to recent opinion polls).

The EU - finally getting a little fed up?

There is no doubt that the EU's abject subservience to AngloZionists has really hurt European economic and political interests.  Not only that, but from an EU point of view, the situation in Banderastan is getting worse and worse and even worse.  There are some signs that both the Poroshenko regime and the EU are finally becoming aware that unless they do something really, really, soon things might get much worse.  And, exactly as Oleg Tsarev had predicted it, as soon as the NAF scored its first major victories the EU and Poroshenko suddenly became interested in negotiations.  And, right on time, Putin offered his peace plan.

Putin's 7 point peace plan

As peace plans come, this one is pretty much a no-brainer and contains only rather obvious points.  Hardly earth shattering, but still a very good basis, especially when combined with a clear message to the Ukies that Russia is not a part to this conflict and that everything must be negotiated in direct talks with Novorussia.  As for the Novorussians, they have already basically agreed to a slightly amended version of the plan.  Interestingly, so apparently has Poroshenko.  In contrast, Iatseniuk is enraged and apparently wants to built a wall along the Russian border (he really seems off his meds recently).  Finally, it appears that Merkel and the OSCE are fully backing the plan, while Fabius is very reluctantly "not opposed".

Of course, we all know that the Ukies and the EU have broken every single agreement they ever committed to since this war started, but this time there is no doubt left whatsoever about the outcome should no negotiated agreement be reached.  And since the Ukies and the EU need this peace plan much more than Russia, they might want to stick to their word this time.  Maybe.

An important thing about this plan is that it contains only immediate to short-term elements.  There is nothing at all in it about any final status for Novorussia or, for that matter, of the rest of the Ukraine.  And this exact how this should be.  Why? Because what is important in this plan is not what it says, but what it implies: "you have lost and we can restart this one anytime we want".  Yes, I know, neither the Novorussians nor the Russians have said any such thing, but remember that making threats is not the Russian way.  Russians do not promise, they do not threaten - they just act.  And if Obama, Cameron or Hollande are too stupid to understand this, Poroshenko (being, as any other Ukie "oligarch", a Mafia boss) knows that very well.  I promise you that there is a deep level of mutual understanding between Putin and Poroshenko which no western leader will ever imagine.

The smile which says it all

For all the bullshit about nationalism and politics, they are both Russian strongmen, clan bosses, and even if Poroshenko is a tiny little insect in comparison to Putin, they still have that "clan boss" culture in common and that means that Putin has absolutely no need to make any threats to Poroshenko simply because Poroshenko already knows.  For example, I heard on Ukie TV that Putin had allegedly told an OSCE official that "if he wanted he could take Kiev in two weeks".  Whether this is true or not (I doubt it - it can be done is less time) is not the point.  The point is that this is exactly the kind of "explanations" which Putin does not need to convey to Poroshenko, but that he might need to "clarify reality" to some western diplomat of the "intellectual caliber" of, say, Hollande or Rasmussen.

So are the Europeans waking up?  Is the Russian strategy to push a wedge between the EU and the US working?  I think that this is too early to tell, but I am becoming cautiously optimistic.  The way Merkel immediately endorsed the "Putin plan" might be a sign that at least Germany is starting to seriously feel the heat.

Tomorrow in Minsk?

Tomorrow will be huge.  Not only is the NATO summit concluding, but the Ukies are meeting with the Novorussians under the watchful eyes of Russia and Belarus.  Apparently topics will range from energy to the peace plan (the EU probably will want guarantees for its gas in exchange for supporting the plan).  The biggest threat now is that the AngloZionists and their Nazi allies in the Ukraine will be very very angry if a deal is made.  Frankly, Poroshenko is taking a big personal risk, but since his situation is already very precarious, he might have figured that an 11th hour "rebranding" of himself as a "peacemaker" might not be the worst possible outcome, especially if the Germans try hard to protect him.  As for the US, it might turn to its time-honored tradition and simply dump Poroshenko.  My biggest concern are the bona fide Nazis a la Iarosh, Timoshenko, Iatseniuk or Tiagnibok who will be absolutely outraged at any deal made with Putin.  Likewise, the oligarchs like Akhmetov and Kolomoiski (who hate each other) will also be furious, as will Hunter Biden.

art: Josetxo Ezcurra

The sad fact is that there is a entire clique of Ukrainian Nazis and oligarchs who much rather continue the war against Russia (because this is, of course, what this is really all about!) to the last Ukrainian soldier if need be rather than accepting a deal, especially a very bitter one like the one presented to Kiev right now.  Because, let's be honest here, this will be packaged in all sorts of noble and lofty words, but we are talking about a capitulation and not some kind of meaningful compromise, at least form the Ukie point of view.

What the Ukraine really needs right now is a real process of denazification.  There is another "Ukraine" out there, at least potentially if not historically, which could be very different from the Banderastan the AngloZionists have created.  Yes, Ukrainian nationalism is the product of centuries of west European machinations and conspiracies, but this does not mean that it has to forever remain hostage of the hateful forces which have created it.  For one thing, this conflict has constantly obfuscated the fact that most Ukrainians and most Russians want an independent Ukraine to exist.  This will be hard to prove at this point, but I believe that the only region of the ex-Ukraine which really wanted to join Russia was Crimea.  The Donbass would have settled for much less.  I am absolutely convinced that the stupid Nazis really did it to themselves, that blinded by their rabid hatred of everything Russia or Orthodox they simply could not help act the way they did, because it was "in their nature".  Now it is too late to turn things around, you cannot magically undo that horrible and crazy civil war.  But it might be possible to use the reflexion about the causes and results of this outcome to push for a real denazification of the Ukraine.  After all, no matter how brainwashed they currently are, most Ukrainians will come to realize that it took the crazy Ukie nationalists only 6 months to completely destroy their country and that all that this sick ideology of hatred and ignorance brought them is poverty, violence, humiliation and death.  But I am looking way to far ahead.

Let's see what tomorrow brings (or not) and then where this might lead us.  What is certain is that even if tomorrow brings a vapid and meaningless NATO summit and a peace deal in Minsk, this will be way way way too early to celebrate.  At best, it will be one first step in the right direction, but only one step on a long and still very dangerous road.

Stay tuned, I will try to keep you informed the best I can.

Kind regards,

The Saker

August 30th 21:43 UTC/Zulu Ukraine SITREP

Self-delusion and panic in the West

It is actually quite amusing to observe the reaction of Ukrainian and European leaders these days.  After feeding us fairy tales about how the Ukrainians were "winning" the civil war, they suddenly made a 180 degree turn and are now in the full panic mode.  I might shock many of you, but I sincerely believe that, at least in part, the following is happening.

The western elites have declared that the Ukie junta are the "good guys" and that the Novorussians are rebels, insurgents, separatists, Russian agents, Spetsnaz forces, paratroopers, Russian occupants or even FSB/GRU officers.  In other words, lying bastards.  Having accepted this premise, it makes perfectly good sense to get your information from the "good guys" and not from the "lying bastards".  Well, the "good guys" were actively feeding all sorts of utter nonsense to their western counterparts who, by and large, bought it out of sheer incompetence, ignorance, laziness and arrogant stupidity.  Here is a fantastic and absolutely hilarious example of what this produces.  Check out this BBC map and notice its source: the "Ukrainian National Security & Defence Council".

After having completely denied that an successful Novorussian operation was taking place, the Ukies had to finally admit that the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) had reached Novoazovsk.  But remember that the successful operation which got them there in the first place never happened.  So they end up publishing a map with an almost completely surrounded Novorussia and a tiny isolated speck around Novoazovsk.

This begs the question: how did the NAF even get there?  By air?  Unlikely.  By flying carpet or teleporters?  Maybe not.  And then the answer is obvious: through Russia of course!  That is the politically correct interpretation.  Nevermind that in reality the entire border between Novorussia and Russia is firmly in Novorussian hands, nevermind that the entire strech of land north of Novoazovsk is also in Novorussian hands, and nevermind that even Mariupol is already fully surrounded (since this morning), the Ukies and the BBC will show "hallucinogenic maps" like the one shown here.

There is a good US expression: when your head is in the sand, your ass is in the air.  This is exactly what happened now to Ukie and EU elites.  They got suddenly painfully bitten in their exposed butt by the news of a comprehensive collapse of the Junta repression forces (JRF) and they are now in a panic mode, just like a sleepwalker who is suddenly shaken awake.

art by Josetxo Ezcurra

The Ukies speak of a Russian invasion, so does NATO, so does the EU and US. Then they stop as no IMF money can go to a country at war.  Now we suddenly hear of "point of no return", of even more sanctions against Russia (can you hear the giggles in the Kremlin when that sentence is spoken), Obama courageously promises to defend Poland and the Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite says Russia is "practically in a war against Europe".  These hysterics are a surefire sign that in reality nobody has any idea as to what to do - do in reality, in actions - to prevent a complete collapse of the Nazi experiment in the Ukraine. 

The Secretary of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, menacingly puff up his tiny chest and promises to scare Russia with the creation of a 10'000 men strong rapid reaction force destined to counter any Russia attack.  I am sure the Russian generals are shaking in abject terror when they hear that.  Good thing Obama officially declared that there is no military option to rescue the junta.  Besides, it is unclear who the main threat is to Poroshenko's rule: the NAF or the "Kolomoiskistan" in the south, or the Right Sector crazies everywhere.  NATO clearly has no stomach to get involved here.  Good.

Yet another brilliant chess move in the East

It all began with Ukrainian women demanding that their man be saved from the cauldrons in which 7'000+ of them are surrounded.  These woman have organized protests in front of the Ukie Presidency and General Staff and, of course, they were ignored.  Except for Putin who apparently heard them and who officially requested that the Novorussians provide the Ukies with humanitarian corridors to leave.  The only Novorussian demand was that they leave behind their heavy weapons and ammo, but they were allowed to keep their unit banners (to avoid humiliating them).  The junta first disagreed, but some local Ukie commanders took up the offer and apparently certain units have already left this way.  Now think of the irony: the Ukrainian woman protest and demand that their men be spared and its the Russian President to hears their plea and makes it happen!

This way to combine the morally right and tactically ingenious is one of the key characteristics of Putin's method: he wins, but never by doing the ugly thing, instead he wins by doing the right thing.  Brilliant!

A very fluid and unstable situation on the battlefield

Here I urge caution: yes, the NAF has achieved some very real tactical and, to my great surprise, even operational successes.  This is remarkable and is a legitimate reason for cautious optimism.  But when I see the length of the NAF offensive as far to the west as Osipenko, just north of  Berdiansk, with the size of the Ukie force apparently barricaded in Mariupol, I get nervous.  True, the NAF seems to be aware of the risks and they did slow down to secure their positions north of Mariupol.

But make no mistake, the further west the NAF goes, the harder it will be.  For one thing, there appears to be two distinct forces forming to counter the NAF - those under Poroshenko in Kiev and those under Kolomoiski in Odessa. If  Poroshenko is clearly an evil and completely unprincipled person, in comparison with Kolomoiski he looks almost decent.  Kolomoiski is truly the scum of the earth, a Jewish Nazi of the absolutely worst kind, somebody just intelligent and cunning enough to successfully commit just about any evil deed, but also arrogant enough to eventually fail and try to bring down the entire planet with him.  If the case can be made for an assassination - Kolomoiski is my candidate.  As long as that son of Satan is alive anything could happen.  What makes things even more dangerous is that Odessa is truly the last strategically important city for the AngloZionists and their Nazi allies in Kiev.  If they lose Odessa, then then really lost it all.

Many commentators here have mentioned the increasing risk of a false flag and I completely share these concerns.  One such concern is that Kolomoiski's death squads might decide to blow up the Dniepr Hydroelectric Power Station.  Again, I would not put anything past this creature.  I am confident that somebody will kill Kolomoiski sooner or later, but until this happens we need to be aware that literally anything can still happen.

Mixed news about Strelkov

Strelkov and El-Miurid

The good news is that he is alive, in good health and free.  This has been confirmed by the blogger El-Miurid who met with him (see photo).  The bad news according to El-Miurid is that some unnamed individuals/forces in Russia had made the delivery of aid to the NAF contingent on his departure.  I don't like that kind of methods, and I like Strelkov.  I do have to admit that his successor, Zakharchenko, is doing an absolutely superb job.  So while we still don't know the true story of what happened I reserve judgment.  I have to admit here that for a while I did suspect that he had been wounded and that the Novorussians did not want to admit this, but when the entire leadership was changed, I figured out that something much bigger had happened.  Was this a good or bad move?  If we use Christ's method of judging a tree by its fruits, then it was an undeniably good move.  Things *did* get better after the change.  So what was the problem with Strelkov?  I really don't know.  Not competence, for sure.  The guy is a brilliant commander.  Not politics either - his staff included people from all sorts of different political backgrounds from the Far Left to the Far Right (even though these categories make no sense in Russia).  One possibility is that Strelkov really wants to go all the way to Kiev and that the Russians (the Kremlin or the General Staff) oppose this objective.  Let's not speculate and wait for Strelkov to speak for himself when he decides that the moment is right.

So what is the problem with the airports?

Many commentators are wondering why the NAF has not kicked out the JRF out of the Donetsk and Lugansk airports.  The answer is pretty simple:

First, these airports provide a perfect place to barricade yourself: they have big supplies, an advanced infrastructure, lots of underground passages, strong buildings, etc.  You cannot just bomb them into dust (unless you use very powerful munitions) and you have to conquer them the hard way.

Second, the Ukie artillery all around is perfectly placed and ready to strike at any NAF unit trying to breach the Ukie defensive perimeter.  So the Ukie artillery needs to be moved back, out of range, up to 40km or more.

Third, both airports are near residential areas and the NAF don't want to use massive artillery strikes of Fuel-Air Explosives (FAEs).

Fourth, most of the NAF resources are badly needed elsewhere.  This might sound cruel, but all the Ukies do with their artillery in the airports is shoot at residential areas - they are in no way a real threat to the NAF.  There are other, much more dangerous Ukie units which need to be eliminated before the problem of these airports can be addressed.  For example, there is a city just north of Lugansk called Metalist where some really nasty hardcore Nazi units are dug in and who are mercilessly bombing Lugansk every day and night.  They have been completely surrounded and yet they refused to surrender or stop massacring civilians.  For the first time today the latest maps appear to show the city of Metalist in NAF hands.  If so, this is extremely good news for Lugansk.  Not so for the folks who for weeks have been murdering civilians.  There will be no Ukie prisoners from Metalist. You can count on that.

Bottom line is this: everybody in the NAF agrees that these airports are really a major problem, but that only limited resources can be allocated to that problem in the current situation.  I am confident that these airports will be taken in the not too distant future.  But for the time being, we have to wait.

На Киев?  (To Kiev?)

To Kiev!

Frankly, I doubt it.  I don't believe that NAF have the resources for such a strategic assault, and I am not at all sure that the NAF command even has any desire for such a move.  I am quite sure that the Russian primary strategic objective in this war is regime change in Kiev followed by a de-Nazification of the Ukraine, but I don't believe that the Kremlin wants to do that by force.  Rather, it wants to create the situation in which the Ukrainians themselves overthrow the junta and all other forms of Nazi rule in Banderastan.  Fundamentally, and paradoxically, the AngloZionist Empire has succeeded in forcing a civilizational choice on the people of the Ukraine, but not one between the EU (or the "West") and Russia, but one between Nazism and their true, historical, national identity.  The fact that the Ukraine has always been an artificial construct of western imperialists does not mean that the nationalities living in the Ukraine are artificial at all.  The so-called "Ukraine" is an extremely diverse territory in which many different ethnic and cultural groups live and these groups will all pay a terrible price for the AngloZionist attempt to use the Ukraine against Russia, but there will be a "day after" in which the people have to emerge from the rubble and slowly begin to rebuild their land.  But the first and necessary condition for that to happen is to throw out the freaks, the Banderistas, the Nazis, the militant Uniats, the Wahabis, Zionists, Georgian subversives, the CIA "advisors" and Acadadmi "private military company" and all the rest of the international scum which currently occupies the Ukraine.

Finally, Russia also have a strategic mission, a message, she must convey in deeds rather than in words to all the people of the Ukraine: we are not your enemy.  In fact, history shows that we are your only friend and protector.  But if you let yourself be manipulated to try to exterminate us, we will stop you.  For centuries the people of the Ukraine have been propagandized, manipulated, lied to, deceived, zombified and used by western agents: the Papacy, the Masons, the imperialists, the Nazis and now the AngloZionists.  This has to stop one day and the only way to stop it is for Russia to prove by actions that the people of the Ukraine have been lied to.  For a short time, from January to August of 2014, the centuries old "western dream" has become true and a US-controlled russophobic "Banderastan" came into existence.  This is a horrible tragedy, but not so much for Russia as for the Ukrainian people themselves who have paid a terrible price for this abomination and who will pay that price for the foreseeable future.  As with any catastrophe, the Ukrainian people need to do a lot of soul-searching and ask themselves why and how this happened.  Just blaming it all on the hordes of "Asian Moskals" is just not going to be enough. Hard questions will have to be asked.

Russian tanks standing in the streets of Kiev are just not the right setting for that kind of soul-searching.  From 1991 onward the general Russian approach to the Ukraine has been "we don't buy your idiotic historiography, but if you want your independence - take it".  And while most Russians today still don't buy the notion that the Ukrainians are a different nation, they do believe that the Ukrainians should have their own country if they want to.  Just not a Nazi one.  It is very characteristic that while the Ukie blogosphere (and media) is chock-full of rabid anti-Russian racism, the RuNet (Russian Internet) is completely empty of such hate.  Quite to the contrary, the prevailing feeling on the RuNet is a mix of dismay at the horrors in the Ukraine and compassion for the Ukrainian people.  But if the NAF pushes too far, many more people will die, more resentment will be built and the inevitable byproduct of any wars - hate - will become even more widespread than today.  So I personally believe that Russia does need to take it all the way to Kiev, but not with tanks, but with a different civilizational choice, one based on spirituality and freedom and not violence, hate and profit.

So, if the current successes of the NAF are not overturned by events, I believe that there will come a point were the NAF will stop, far short of Kiev.  The Russians cannot and should not de-Nazify the Ukraine for the Ukrainians.  The Ukrainians need to do it themselves.  It is not enough to defeat the AngloZionists physically.  They must be defeated spiritually.

The Saker

August 29th 15:35 UTC/ZULU Ukrainian SITREP

The Ukrainian civil war has reached a turning point and a lot of separate facts point to this conclusion:

Military situation on the ground

The Ukies are losing, badly.  All the reports from Novorussian sources agree that the Ukie forces are either surrounded or in full retreat.  But Ukies sources also confirm this.  In Kiev, angry demonstrations by nationalists accuse the military high command of minimizing the real casualty figures, of having abandoned the forces fighting in the Donbass.  Even Oleg Liashko has stated that the Ukie forces have been "betrayed".  Demonstrations have taken place in from of the Ukie General Staff which many Right Sector protesters which are demanding the creation of a "generals battalion" which would be formed of only generals who would be sent to fight personally (an excellent idea, which I fully approve of!).  Others are also demanding the resignation of the Ukie Minister of Defense.  Ukrainian woman are regularly stopping military convoys on the roads, often by standing or lying down in front of trucks, to prevent their men from being sent to death.  Entire Ukie battalions are deserting from the front and Special Forces are sent to stop them.  Apparently, the Ukie police is afraid to arrest the soldiers for desertion because of their large numbers.  The city of Mariupol is now surrounded and the local political elites and SBU personnel have fled.  Poroshenko cancelled his trip to Turkey and gathered his Security Council.  Kolomoiski, who controls the southwestern Ukraine, did the same thing with his own Security Council (yes, since he has his own army, is also has his own security council).  Tymoshenko wants the introduction of full martial law.  The male population up to 60 is now conscripted (though not called up as far as I know).  Iatseniuk and Poroshenko have both demanded that NATO intervene and accept the Ukraine as some special ally.  In other words, all the signs are of total complete and utter panic in Kiev.

Political situation

Russia: Putin met with Poroshenko and the EU leaders and delivered them a very simple yet stark message: "don't talk to us, we are not a party to the conflict - talk to the Novorussians".  By the way, the Kremlin now openly speaks of "Novorussian" and "Novorussian forces".  Furthermore, the Russians are also officially sending in a second aid convoy and they have announced that this will not be the only one.  In the UN Security Council the Russian Representative, Vitalii Churkin, has dared the Ukie Rep to explain where the recording of the conversations between the Kiev ATC and MH17 were hidden and why.  With the Fall rapidly arriving, the EU has pushed Kiev to renew gas negotiations which the Russians have declared "deadlocked".  By all accounts, the "Voentorg" (a Russian contraction meaning "Military Trade", which was the name for the Soviet era building were military gear could be purchased) between Russia and Novorussia has further increased and the Novorussian are now getting more men, including specialists, and more equipment.

Contrary to the predictions of the Putin bashing crowd, the replacement of Strelkov by Zakharchenko was not followed by any "sellout" of Novorussia.  Quite to the contrary, as soon as Zakharchenko took power the Novorussians went on a general offensive.  As for Strelkov himself, he is apparently in good health and is supposed to make a public appearance today in Crimea.  So all that talk about Putin backstabbing Novorussia, him having some kind of deal with Obama, about Strelkov having been eliminated by Putin's Spetsnaz and all the rest of the doom and gloom propaganda of the Putin haters has now clearly shown to be absolute rubbish.  Clearly, some Putin bashers are paid by Russian oligarchs, others are just to dull to understand the sophisticated policy of the Kremlin in the Ukraine.  Whatever may be the case, these shrills are now completely discredited by fact and forced to walk away in shame.

Putin's latest move is nothing short of brilliant.  Think of it: the mothers and wives of Ukie servicemen are demanding that their men be returned to them, the regime in Kiev ignores them, and Putin steps in to agree with them and asks the Novorussians to open humanitarian corridors to allow them to safely leave and go back home.  Thus, he shows more concern for the Ukies than the Ukie regime, he encourages the desertion of Ukie soliders, he minimizes the casualties on all sides, and he deals another death-blow to Ukie morale.  Best of all, he achieves all this by a simple statement written in such a way that nobody can possibly condemn him for anything.  As for the Novorussians, Zakharchenko has already agreed, but on the condition that the Ukies leave behind all their heavy weapons and the ammo for it.  Perfect. Needless to say, the Ukie high command has rejected the offer and ordered the surrounded units to break out guns blazing.  Just imagine how that response feels to the relatives of those stuck in the various "cauldrons"!

The EU: the EU is totally stuck.  Apparently, the chaos in Banderastan combined with the Russian sanctions and the gas crisis is gradually having an effect in the dull brains of the Eurobureaucrats who are coming to realize that they have been at least as stupid as the Ukies and that the US has used them for their own imperial goals.  "Fuck the EU" indeed.  Badly.  The best these hapless bureaucrats could do is to go to Minsk and agree to negotiate with Russia the terms under which the Ukraine would ratify the Agreement with the EU.  Exactly that which Russia had been demanding from Day 1 and which the EU had always been contemptuously rejecting with the arrogant "none of your business" reply.  Now Ashton and a few others had to eat humble pie and kindly ask the Russian to come and talk to them.

The US: Poor Uncle Sam is really looking pathetic, foolish and confused.  The very best the USA can do is to accuse Russia of invading the Ukraine and only threaten more sanctions as Obama has already admitted that the US has no military option in the Ukraine.  To measure the degree of disarray amongst the US Neocons I will just quote from an article written recently by Herbert E. Meyer, former Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA’s National Intelligence Council during the Reagan Administration, for American Thinker and modestly entitled "How to Solve the Putin Problem".  Here is what this genius came up with:

Since subtlety doesn’t work with Russians, the president and his European counterparts should also make absolutely clear that we have no interest whatever in how these people (the Russian oligarchs) solve their Putin problem. If they can talk good old Vladimir into leaving the Kremlin with full military honors and a 21-gun salute -- that would be fine with us. If Putin is too too stubborn to acknowledge that his career is over, and the only way to get him out of the Kremlin is feet-first, with a bullet hole in the back of his head -- that would also be okay with us.

Nor would we object to a bit of poetic justice.... For instance, if the next time Putin’s flying back to Moscow from yet another visit with his good friends in Cuba, or Venezuela, or Iran, his airplane gets blasted out of the sky by some murky para-military group that somehow, inexplicably, got its hands on a surface-to-air missile

I don't know if Mr. Meyer thinks that Mrs Nuland delivering cookies on the Maidan was the subtlety the Russian did not appreciate or understand, or if his own article is an expression of US subtlety, but he clearly has "Pat Robertson moment" (the latter wanted the US to kill  Hugo Chavez) which just proves that the AngloZionists don't have a diplomacy as such and that magical thinking is a key coping mechanism when that lack of diplomacy becomes obvious.

Where do we go from here?

It' hard to tell.  I think that Oleg Tsarev is right when he says that as soon as the Ukie regime begins collapsing the West will suddenly ask for negotiations.  Zakharchenko in his crucial press conference has clearly indicated that options such as federalization or decentralization are off the table and that nothing short of full independence will do.  Maybe.  Maybe not.  There are plenty of historical examples which show that separatist movements eventually settled for less, often wisely so.  But in this case, we are dealing with several intertwined problems:

a) Geographical: the Ukraine is an artificial country
b) Political: internally the regime in Kiev is Nazi
c) Geo-strategic: externally the regime in Kiev is a russophobic US puppet
d) Economic: the Ukraine is economically dead

All these factors clearly point to the same conclusion: the Ukraine needs to be broken-up.  This might happen catastrophically - the East going to Novorussia, the South to Kolomoiski, the Center to Poroshenko and the West breaking off completely.  There are some signs that this is already gradually happening.   Furthermore, this is all made worse by the undeniable fact that  the Ukraine is already a failed state and that a seizable minority of the Ukrainian population if formed of truly rabid nationalists.  So right now things don't look too good for any negotiated solution.  Novorussia probably has the potential to rebuild and to become a more or less livable, stable place: most of its industry is in ruins, but it's "human capital", it's people, are very bright and hard working and its political leaders clearly capable people.  But short of some kind of miracle, the rest of the Ukraine is probably going to slouch to towards the kind of mess the USA is so good at leaving behind in places like Libya or Iraq.  Maybe not, maybe the Europeans will finally grow a spine and tell the US to stay out and then try to solve this ugly mess with Russia.  I am not holding my breath, not as long as the current AngloZionist nomenklatura is in power in the EU.

One thing could possibly change this downward spiral: a regime change in Kiev.  I don't mean one replacing Poroshenko by Liashko or Iarosh, but an anti-Nazi insurrection or coup.  I will be honest with you, with kind of terror the SBU and the oligarchs are capable of meting out to the general public, this is not very likely.  But who knows what might happen on a wave of popular discontent?  If the current freaks could be kicked out by halfway sane people and a process of denazification initiated, then maybe something could still be salvaged?  Again, I am not very hopeful.  But let's stick to current events.

Current situation

I would say that things look better right now than ever before.  This is far, far from over, and many things could go wrong but at least at this moment in time things look pretty good.  Short of a sudden reversal, the cities of Lugansk and Donetsk are probably going to be freed from most of the shelling within 10-14 days.  Currently, the Novorussians control the entire border between Russia and Novorussia, which makes the Voentorg much easier.  Zakharchenko and his men seem to be making an excellent job and rumor has it that Strelkov will be back soon in some special capacity.  The Novorussian leadership and the Kremlin are clearly on the same wavelength and there is no reason to suspect an over Russian military intervention.  I am confident that the Black Sea Fleet will do what is needed to keep the Novorussian coast safe so as long as the Ukies are not able to mount a surprise attack from the North, Mariupol will probably fall very soon.  There are increasing reports of partisan movements in Zaporozhie and that, if true, is something very interesting which might begin to affect other areas and cities such as Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk. I still don't see Novorussian tanks headed for Kiev, but an operational success seems to be in the making right at this moment in time.

I am by character, education and trade a rather cautious person, but today I am cautiously optimistic, at least for Novorussia.

The Saker

Post Scriptum: this just in from a good friend:

DPR

- Volnovakha taken by Novorossiya Armed Forces (NAF); South-Western Cauldron closed off.
- Yalta (near Mariupol) taken, NAF is now 12 km away from Mariupol.
- Mariupol - Zaporozhye (Berdyansk) road closed off by NAF. Virtually all settlements around Mariupol appear to be taken by NAF. Mariupol Cauldron closed off.
- Fighting has crossed the border into Zaporozhye. Saboteur-Reconnaissance Groups (SRG) and guerrillas active inside Zaporozhye’s borders.
- Ukrainian punitive forces surrendering in the many cauldrons, the rate of surrenders is picking up pace.
- NAF is pushing outward toward Yasinovataya, Maryinka, Karlovka, Krasnogorovka (west of Donetsk)

AND, the BIGGEST (albeit not fully confirmed) NEWS: Donetsk Airport taken by NAF today.

LPR

- Lutugino partially controlled by the Militia, very heavy urban combat there, although Rodakovo was lost (plans to retake it shortly).
- Lyashko appears to be still trapped in Severodonetsk, which is besieged by Mozgovoi’s Brigade (I have no further information since a couple of days ago).
- LPR has encircled Shchastye and Metallist and is advancing on the Ukrainian positions there, as well as in the north-eastern direction (Stanitsa Luganskaya, which still remains contested).
- NAF continues to advance on Deblatsevo, taking checkpoints on the outskirts of the city.
- LPR is planning some major advances in the next few days, hopefully to clean up most of the remaining cauldrons. 

PPS: and this from Russia Today: 

Poland has refused overflight rights to the plane of Russia’s defense minister, Sergey Shoigu, who was on his way from Slovakia, RIA Novosti’s correspondent reported. The plane has landed in Bratislava.
The minister was returning from the celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the Slovakian national uprising that took place in the town of Banská Bystrica.
However, Poland banned entrance into its airspace for the Tu-154 plane, according to a RIA Novosti correspondent who was on board, citing one of the crewmembers.
The plane had to take a U-turn and landed in Bratislava an hour later.
Negotiations are being held on the matter at the moment. All the passengers are now on board the plane.

Comment:  rather petty and infantile behavior in my opinion.  This really begs the question of what the Poles think that they will achieve with this other than the dubious honor of "servicing" Uncle Sam once more (those who follow Polish politics will know what I mean).