The time has come for Putin to make the most important decision of his Presidency

Today I would like to just share two thoughts with you and suggest that each and every one of you come to his/her own conclusions.

First, Russia was literally "sucked into" WWI by the Germany.  Russia did not have to enter the war as Russia herself was not attacked.  "Only" Serbia was.  Russia was not ready to enter the war, but the Czar-Martyr Saint Nicholas II decided that it was his Christian duty was to take the defense of the Serbian people even if all pragmatic considerations were clearly advocating against a Russian intervention.  This war soon turned out to be extremely costly for Russia and greatly contributed to the weakening of the Russian monarchy which eventually resulted in a Aristocratic-Masonic coup (February 1917) followed by a Jewish-Bolshevik coup (October 1917).  Did the Czar do the right thing when he decided to defend the Serbian nation at the potential cost of his own Empire, the last Christian Empire in history?  It is a fact that the Serbian Prince Alexander and the Serbian people have always shown an immense and sincere gratitude to the Russian people and to Czar Nicholas II (whose first icon was painted on a fresco in Serbia, not Russia).  But Russia also liberated Bulgaria from the Ottoman yoke.  We now see the kind of "gratitude" Russia got from Bulgaria.  Will a liberated Novorossia be more like Serbia or more like Bulgaria?

Second, the level of outrage in Russia over the apparent Russian non-action in the face of what has now clearly become a systematic terror campaign against the people of Novorossia is immense.  If Putin does not take action *very* soon he will face a very serious challenge from many sectors of Russian society including the media, the Duma and even his own party "United Russia".  My personal opinion is that this "wait and see" game was probably aimed at deliberately getting the Russian public opinion in a state of rage similar to the one which preceded the 2nd Chechen war but if that is so, then now the Russian society has reached boiling point and that if Putin does not act very soon a political explosion will take place in Russia.  Every day now I see already "not so veiled at all" criticisms and expressions of disbelief at the Kremlin's "shameful passivity", and I am not talking about some small extremist party websites, but of the most watched and best known TV news and talkshows of mainstream Russian TV.  Reporters which used to be very pro-Putin are now clearly and openly expressing frustration maybe not at Putin personally (yet), but at "Moscow".  But the writing is on the wall for Putin now.  Furthermore, representatives of Novorussian authorities are now spending their time in Moscow going from one talk-show to another and making truly dramatic pleas for help.  In other words, Putin is days away from what will become his political suicide unless he takes action.  I would say that things have become so bad that even if the Novorossian Defense Forces have what it takes to keep the neo-Nazi death-squads mostly in check (and I believe that they do), the humanitarian situation is so bad (over 110'000 refugees already) that the pressure to have Russia intervene will continue to grow regardless of the military equation.

With these elements in mind, make your own conclusions now as to what Putin should/will do.

My personal belief is that a Russian intervention is imminent.

The Saker

Moscow demonstrations report - basically, a non-event

As promised, here is a short report on what took place today in Moscow.  First, let's see what the BBC had to say:

The caption is priceless!!  Turns out that some heroic freedom fighter & "activist" called Katz is *secretly* filming the protest to get his own crowd count.  I did not find the count, but I am sure that it must run in the millions.

But, seriously, is the BBC not aware that Moscow must have the highest ratio of cellphone/human in the world, and that all these cellphones have rather decent cameras.  What is the point of 'secretly' filming an event which is openly filmed by all its participants?

Actually, the Russian cops did something rather smart this time.  They send a helicopter up in the air who was broadcasting video and images live on the Internet.  Here is such a picture:

And just to be clear, of the various pictures offered, I chose the one with most people on it.

Also, for the fullness of the picture, here is an official RIA-Novosti picture:

I would say that our freedom-loving Katz need not have worried about the demonstrations not being filmed, wouldn't you say?

Lastly, here is a TV report from one of the main channels about today's demonstrations: (no need to understand Russian, its all rather clear)

Bottom line - there was not even a hint of suppression in the "Kremlin controlled media" and the demonstrations were amply covered.

How many people showed up?  The cops say that the numbers began at 15'000, then swelled to about 18'000 during the march, then down to 10'000 due to rain at the concert.  One Eltsenoid spoke of 100'000, and another of 200'000.  We do know that the march organizers called the march the "March of the Millions", but that they scheduled it for 50'000.  My best guess is that the figures must have oscillated between 15'000-25'000 max.

The Western corporate media had predicted a massive turnout in protest against the laws against riots recently passed (increase of fines) and against yesterday's searches.  As far as I can tell, today's demonstrations were either on par or a tad larger than the ones on May 6th.  In other words, this was a non-event.

To recap: in a city of 10'000'000 (ten million) people, a demonstration bringing together pro-US liberals, communists, monarchists, homosexuals, anti-corruption protesters, ecologists, Stalinists, Fascists, Nationalists and any other type of discontents brought out well less than 50'000 people even though it took place on a major national holiday, in perfect weather, and with the full authorization of the authorities.

In other words, this was a non-event, Mr. Katz notwithstanding.

The Saker

Interesting developments in Moscow

You probably have already seen the horrified news reports in the Western corporate media about the "crackdown" on Russian "dissidents" in Moscow.  If not, check this one by AP for a more sober tone.  What is really taking place?

Putin = Stalin

Is Russian really going back to Stalin's year 1937 as the local tweeter-freedom-fighters have been posting?  Not quite.

What happened is this.  The authorities were investigating the violent demonstrations which had taken place in Moscow on May 6th.  In the course of their investigation, they decided to look a little deeper into the activities of some well known figures of what I call the Moscow  "dissent jetset":

• Alexey Navalny (ex-Yabloko)
• Sergei Udaltsov (Left Front)
• Ilya Yashin (ex-Yabloko)
• Kseniya Sobchak (Russia's "Paris Hilton" or "Kim Kardashian")
• Boris Nemtsov (Union of Rightist Forces)

This is quite a combination.  If I 'translate' all these labels what we really have is 3 ex-Eltsenites, rabidly pro-US (Navalny, Yashin and Nemtsov), one nutcase (Yashin) and one "career slut", literally (Sobchak).  Now remove the two "fig-leaf dummies" (Yashin and Sobchak) and what are you left with in terms of brains behind the movement?  Three hardcore US puppets.

Most people in Russia understand all that perfectly.  But still, there was no proof of that.  Until today that is.  Guess what?  According to official Russian sources, the cops found over 1'000'000 Euros (one million!) in spread out in about 100 envelopes in the apartments of Yashin and Sobchak.  And before anybody begins to suspect that this money was planted, Russian law forbids any searches without witnesses which, in this case, participated in the entry and search of the apartments (grant you, the money could have been planted sometime *before* but considering how public these individuals were, I just don't see FSB goons covertly coming in two apartments to deliver packs on money).

The main guy in all this drama is Boris Nemtsov.  He is a very good speaker, he is charming, charismatic and has a great sense of humor.  By far the smartest of all of these dissidents and the most valuable to the CIA.  He is also the only one who was tipped off and managed to hide from the authorities which prevents them from legally searching his apartment.  Interestingly, since Nemtsov never was served a search warrant, he is not even breaking the law by not showing up.  Still, he contacted a local radio station, admitted that he is hiding in the Moscow region, declared these searches an "act of intimidation, total lawlessness and arbitrariness", and announced that he will show up at tomorrow's demonstrations.

Yup, there is another "march of the millions"  is scheduled tomorrow.  Last time around, the march of the millions only got 10'000 people in the streets.  It will be interesting to see how many come out tomorrow. 

Media hounds 'cover' each search

This all looks very good for Putin and very bad for the pro-US camp. Now that there is a money-trail labeled in US dollars and Euros, the public opinion in Russia will not need much further proof of who exactly was behind the attempt at a color-coded revolution in Russia. This is also why State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland immediately declared that "the U.S. is deeply concerned by the apparent harassment of Russian political opposition figures on the eve of the planned demonstrations on June 12.  Taken together, these measures raise serious questions about the arbitrary use of law enforcement to stifle free speech and free assembly". 

In other words, expect yet another Russia-bashing media-firestorm for tomorrow and the following days (with footage of Nemtsov being arrested).

The Saker