Why is Russia sending a naval task force to the eastern Mediterranean?

Over the past few days the Internet has been buzzing with reports about the Russian Navy sending warships including possibly guided missile cruisers (the Kerch, the Varyag, the Moskva are often mentioned), while Russian sources mention the large anti-submarine ship Admiral Panteleyev and various support vessels.  Russian officials have made contradictory statements about how many ships are being send and which ships exactly would join the Russian flotilla, but the bottom line is clear: this time Russia is sending big, very capable ships.  The obvious question is why?

First, I want to  get the hype out of this by immediately saying that these ships are not being sent to the Mediterranean to attack the US Navy or any NATO assets.  I will never cease to repeat this: a direct Russian military intervention is out of the question.  But then, what are they up to?

One very likely hypothesis is that some of these ships (like the Varyag or the Moskva) have extremely powerful radars onboad, including the naval version of the S-300 (called the S-300F or SA-N-6 in NATO classification) and the associated 3R41 Volna ("Top Dome") or  (newer) 36N85 ("Flap Lid") radars.  In other words, such a warship can cruise off the Syrian coast and fully monitor much of the Syrian airspace.  This type of ship is also capable of sharing this data via encrypted datalink.  In the event of a US/NATO strike the Russians could not only monitor it all live, but they could easily pass on their data to the Syrians who could  then continue to defend their airspace even if their own radars were to be destroyed or jammed.  And while it is likely that the US/NATO would be aware of that kind of activity, there is really not too much they could do about it - not only are these ships equipped with formidable weapon systems, but the US is also not going to be willing to risk a war with Russia.

The second purpose of sending these ships to the eastern Mediterranean is that they usually have a complement of Naval Infantry troops which could be used to protect or evacuate Russian nationals if needed.

Furthermore, the mere presence of such sophisticated warships in a possible warzone will be a major irritant for CENTCOM which will have to allocate resources to track and monitor them.  I am not sure if there are any US aircraft carriers in the eastern Mediterranean (last time I heard they were in the Persian Gulf), but the main capability of these Russian guided missile cruisers is to be a "carrier killer" thanks to their specially designed and very powerful missiles.  The presence of such warships are just not something CENTCOM can ignore even if the Americans are certain that the Russians will not suddenly begin hostilities.

Finally, these ships have a top of the line anti-submarine warfare capability which they can use to monitor US subs near Syria, probably in conjunction with 1-2 Russian attack submarines also covertly deployed as part of this task force.

All in all, these warships, combined with Russian satellites, intelligence gathering aircraft in the skies and local intelligence assets on the ground in Syria probably give the Russians an excellent picture of what is going on, all of which they than can share with their Syrian colleagues.

The deployment of the naval task force is yet another proof that Russia is doing all it can to assist Syria and deter a US attack.

The Saker

Russian warships set sail to Mediterranean amid possible Syria evacuation

RT reports:

The Russian Navy has sent five ships to the Mediterranean Sea to replace the region’s existing fleet. The move comes after the foreign ministry said it may call for the evacuation of Russian citizens in Syria if the government in Damascus falls.

­Three warships and two support ships of the Russian Baltic Fleet are set to join the Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean.

Frigate Yaroslav Mudri

The Neustrashimyy-class frigate Yaroslav Mudri and landing ships Kaliningrad and Aleksandr Shabalin, accompanied by a towboat and a tanker ship, have set sail from their base in Baltiysk, the defense ministry announced on Tuesday. Their mission includes exercises in air defense, anti-ship warfare and anti-submarine warfare, the Navy statement said.

The vessels will replace the ships of the Baltic Fleet, which have been patrolling the Eastern Mediterranean since November.

The Russian military did not elaborate on whether the fleet would visit the Syrian port of Tartus, where the Russian Navy maintains a support base.

Landing ship Aleksandr Shabalin

The warships are being deployed as a contingency for the possible evacuation of Russian citizens from Syria, a source in the Navy told Interfax news agency. The vessels could transport Russian nationals from the warzone to Russia’s Black Sea ports, the source said.

Last week, a senior foreign ministry official confirmed that Russia has prepared a plan to evacuate its citizens from Syria, which will be implemented if the situation there deteriorates further. The plan covers not only the staff of the Russian embassy in Damascus, but also several thousand Russian civilians living in the country, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said.

Russian citizens may be evacuated from Syria if Damascus loses more territory to the rebel fighters. The comments were interpreted by Washington as a sign of Russia changing its position on the Syrian conflict, but Moscow quickly denied this claim.

Pirate-captured tanker freed by Russian navy

RT reports:

The crew of a large Russian anti-submarine ship has freed an oil tanker seized by Somali pirates on Wednesday. All 23 Russian sailors from the hijacked vessel have escaped the incident unscathed.

As a result of the rescue efforts, 10 pirates have been captured and one killed.

"The large submarine-hunter ‘Marshal Shaposhnikov’ (see photos - click on picture for high resolution) of Russia's Pacific Navy carried out an operation to free the ‘Moscow University’ tanker. It ended with an assault by marines; Russia regained control of the tanker and set free all 23 crewmembers; none of them was hurt. 10 pirates have been detained. Several pirates have been wounded and one has been killed," reported Vladimir Markin, spokesman for the Investigations Committee of the Russian Prosecutor General's Office.

According to Markin, all those detained will be brought to Moscow for questioning.

The arrested attackers will be dealt with in accordance with “naval law,” President Medvedev said while discussing the events with Defense Minister Serdyukov.

After the vague comment on the fate of the pirates, Medvedev announced that Russia’s Foreign Ministry will work on an international initiative to create a legal framework for combating piracy, probably establishing an international court for such issues.

“What’s the problem here? We all know that it’s evil, but fail to agree on how to fight it. The result is the bad situation in terms of legal and political instruments,” the Russian president said. He added that without such an agreement seafaring nations will “have to deal with pirates the way our ancestors did.”

The tanker “Moscow University”, with 23 crew members and 86,000 tonnes of oil on board, was seized on Wednesday morning to the east of Aden Bay. The boat was going from the Red Sea to China.

"Due to wise steps taken by the captain of the tanker and his crew, all 23 sailors hid in a special room inaccessible to the pirates. As a result, the pirates failed to take any crew members hostage," the vessel's owner, Novorossiysk Shipping Company (Novoship), told Interfax.

The Russian navy was aided by EU and NATO warships engaged in anti-pirate missions in the region.

Itar-Tass quotes the Operation Atalanta press-service as saying “an aircraft from patrol aviation of EU Navfor managed to contact the ‘Moscow University’ crew several hours after the attack on the ship. This helped to confirm the crew was safe.”

According to a source in Russia’s Ministry of Defense, cited by Itar-Tass, the crew of the Marshal Shaposhnikov gave the pirates a chance to surrender. However, they were forced to storm the vessel.

As EU Navfor reports “The Marshal Shaposhnikov sent a helicopter to investigate upon arrival at the oil tanker Moscow University’s position. The helicopter was fired upon by the pirates holding the ship. The Russian warship, knowing the crew were locked down and safe, returned fire on the pirates.”

Ukrainian "democrats" fail at distrupting Black Sea Fleet deal ratification

Clashes in Crimea

According to Pravda.ru, Ukrainian nationalists have organized a congress in the center of the city of Sevastopol in Crimea. About 1000 local residents demonstrated under the slogan "Fascism will not pass". Clashes ensued. About 300 demonstrators were able to break through the police barriers and were then violently engaged by police special forces. A number of arrests were made.
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Commentary: there we go, exactly as I predicted. The Ukrainian nationalists are staging their meetings in the city center of Sevastopol exactly under the same logic which brings the Israeli settlers to organize "religious" events smack in the middle of Palestinian villages: the point is to trigger a violent response which can then be legally crushed under the heading of "law and order".

For the Ukrainian nationalists an overt conflict with the Russian-speaking population is the best, if not only, way to bring the public's attention away from the absolute disaster in which 18 years of independence have resulted in and to focus all the attention on "patriotic" actions.

There is an very ugly historical precedent: the sudden and violent invasion of the Trans-Dniester Republic by Moldavian forces in 1992 resulting in the local Russian 14th Army being very reluctantly involved in the conflict, primarily because the officers' families were directly endangered by the assault. This could also happen in Crimea where the Russian Black Sea Fleet is based. A particularly ominous development in this situation was the demand made by the Ukrainian government that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) withdraw all its officers from Crimea by December 13, 2009. Needless to say, the Russian simply cannot let its Fleet and dependent civilians unprotected in such a dangerous context, thus this demand will simply force the FSB to operate illegally (and increase the force protection mission of the GRU).

Muddied waters: Russia finds 'piracy' cargo ship but what really happened?

Caroline Davies and Tom Parfitt for The Guardian report:

The Arctic Sea was discovered 300 miles off the Cape Verde islands three weeks after it went missing, triggering speculation of a pirate attack.

Three weeks after it vanished at sea, the cargo ship Arctic Sea was found off the Cape Verde islands today with its Russian crew alive, well and "answering questions".

All 15 sailors were aboard a Russian anti-submarine warship , bringing to a conclusion one of the most intriguing maritime mysteries of modern times.

But, even as the Russian authorities announced the development, the few details to emerge left more questions than answers at the end of a saga which has inspired frenzied rumours of piracy, ransom demands, secret cargoes and arms smuggling – all worthy of a cold war thriller.

Russia's defence minister, Anatoly Serdyukov, informed the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, that the crew, when found, were not under armed control, and were now helping to "clarify" the circumstances of this most unusual incident.

Tass news agency quoted Serdyukov saying: "The Arctic Sea was discovered at 1am Moscow time today 300 miles off the Cape Verde islands.

"The crew have been moved to our anti-submarine warfare ship. They are answering questions … to clarify all circumstances of the incident. All crew members are alive and they are feeling well. They were not under armed control."

Viktor Matveyev, the director of the Finnish-owned vessel's operating company, Solchart, told the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper: "We are extremely pleased, we've been told everyone is alive and nobody was hurt … I can't say any more. I'm rushing to a meeting to organise getting the crew home, checking their health and providing any help. We still don't know what condition the ship is in".

The disappearance of the Arctic Sea, carrying a £1.1m cargo of timber, baffled experts as it eluded radars and satellites and vanished after passing through the English Channel on July 28. Just how a 4,000 tonne ship could drop off the charts in these days of space-age technology prompted allusions to the Bermuda triangle and the "ghost ship" Marie Celeste.

Further intrigue came with reports that the Malta Maritime Authority had received information that the Maltese-registered vessel had been boarded by up to a dozen armed men in masks as it sailed through the Baltic Sea, sparking concerns of piracy – almost unheard of in European waters.

The "raiders" reportedly bound, blindfolded and beat the crew before departing in an inflatable boat 12 hours later, it was said, leaving the ship's communications equipment damaged. The Arctic Sea had left Finland, bound for the Algerian port of Bejaia, on 23 July. It was known to have made contact with Dover coastguards on 28 July, but, at that point there had been no alert over the "attack" so there was no hunt for the ship.

Two days later it was spotted in the Bay of Biscay. Its automatic tracking system recorded its position at 1.30am. From then on, however, there was no further contact. The tracking system appeared either to have been switched off or to have stopped working from that day. It was due to make port in Algeria on 4 August. It now appears it changed direction, heading out into the western Atlantic.

The Kremlin had ordered warships and submarines to scour the Atlantic amid fears that the ship might have been the target of a second attack. Meanwhile, Nato was monitoring the situation, due to the unusual nature and location of the attacks, but was not directly involved .

Puzzling over speculation that the ship had fallen victim to pirates, a spokesman for the European commission, Martin Selmayr, said on Friday: "From information currently available it would seem that these acts, such as they have been reported, have nothing in common with 'traditional' acts of piracy or armed robbery at sea."

Then, French officials reported the same day that a ship "resembling" the Arctic Sea had been spotted off the Cape Verde islands, west of Senegal, though there was no immediate confirmation of this.

The plot took a further twist at the weekend with unsubstantiated reports that the ship's Finnish owners, who have denied its cargo is anything other than timber, had received a ransom note for a "large sum", reported to be almost £1m.

But there was never confirmation whether this was genuine.

Since it went missing, unsubstantiated suggestions have been made that the ship might have been hijacked because it was carrying a "secret" shipment, such as drugs or arms, unknown to its crew or owners.

Russia's Nato ambassador, Dmitry Rogozin, gave no indication of how, or by whom, the ship had been seized, and how the Russian military had managed to get the crew aboard the Russian-guided missile frigate Ladny.

He told Interfax: "We can say now that the operation has been carried through successfully. It was done with brilliance."

So what happened?

Piracy: Was the ship attacked in the Baltic Sea?

Swedish police said the crew allegedly told their shipping company that up to 12 masked men, claiming to be Swedish anti-drugs police had boarded the vessel on July 24, one day after leaving Finland, tying up the crew before leaving in an inflatable boat after 12 hours.

Cargo: Was it carrying anything other than timber?

Not according to its owners. However, Mikhail Voitenko, editor of Russia's Sovfracht maritime bulletin, fuelled intense speculation by suggesting on the Russia Today news channel that its cargo might not be drugs or arms, "but something much more expensive and dangerous". He did not elaborate. "It seems some third party didn't want this transit to be fulfilled so they made this situation highly sophisticated and very complicated," he said. The operating company pointed out that the ship was checked by customs agents on leaving Kaliningrad, and in Finland. The Finnish Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority dismissed as "stupid" claims of a nuclear cargo. Officials did conduct radiation tests on the ship at a port in Finland, but the head of the authority said there was "no basis' for reports that a fireman had thought there might be some radioactivity involved.

Dispute: Were the Russian mafia involved?

The possibility that the Arctic Sea was involved in a commercial dispute, perhaps involving the Russian mafia, was widely rumoured. David Osler, who writes on Maritime Safety for Lloyd's List, told the BBC's Today programme: "It doesn't look like it's the sort of theft of a high-value ship or cargo. It looks like some sort of dispute between Russian interests".