Ukraine intermediate SITREP

1) The explosion in Donetsk:

Russian TV has just shown footage of the crater left by the explosion and it is absolutely huge.  See for yourself:

The crater is about 10m (30 ft) deep.  It is located on the territory of a chemical factory, but it did not hit any of the main buildings.  Whether there was any building at the actual location of the explosion is impossible to tell: the earth is black, all the trees scorched and there is nothing left at all.  DNR experts estimate the blast as being the equivalent of 1 ton of TNT.  The sound of the explosion was heard 50km away.  From the shape of the crater, it doe not appear to be a fuel-air explosive (FAE), but 1 ton of equivalent TNT is way bigger than the 500kg HE warhead the Tochka-U can carry.  This leads me to believe that the Ukrainians might have used a new weapon or, at least, a modified one.  All we know for sure is that it was not a nuclear device.  Also, it makes me wonder what in  the world they were trying to hit - maybe the chemicals factory, but if that it the case, then the missed by 1000m or so.  At this point, I honestly don't know.  I also want to remind everybody that the junta has used White Phosphorus again against its own population:

But the "West" apparently has no problem with any of that and does not care about the laws of war.  What else is knew?

2) The Ukrainian currency (the Grivna) is in free fall:

Of course, this is not surprising in the least and, in fact, it was inevitable.  I have been saying it for months now: the Ukrainian economy is dead.  Completely dead.

3) A Russian Air Force base in Cyprus?

You have probably seen the reports: apparently Cyprus intends to offer Russia the use of an airfield in Cyprus.  Some Russian experts are dismissing this offer as useless.  I disagree.  While, of course, this base is not needed to protect any Russian military assets in the region (simply because there are none), it happens to be located in the very sensitive eastern Mediterranean:

Do you remember when Russia sent an Naval Task Force to the Syrian coast to provide radar coverage to the Syrians and thereby prevent a US surprise attack with cruise missiles or aircraft?  If the Russians had a base in Cyprus and if such a situation happened again, the Russian Air Force could provide much needed support for a Russian Naval Task Force.  Also, considering that Cyprus is near Israel and Egypt and that Iraq is not far either, the central location for such a military base could be very useful for Russia.  So while this basis - if it happens - would not be a war-fighting base, it could provide excellent support in times of crisis.

That's it for now.  I hope for a full SITREP tonight.

Cheers,

The Saker

Short clarification about the situation in Novorussia

Dear friends,

You probably all have heard that the Ukies are advancing on all fronts and even that they have taken Saur Mogila. I have carefully scanned all my news sources from the conflict area and this information is false.

What really happened is, indeed, the Ukies did launch massive attacks, one reportedly with 200 or so tanks. Battles have taken place in Gorlovka, the outskirts of Donestk and Lugansk, a particularly strong assault was given to Saur Mogila which had to be reinforced from Donetsk. There were many casualties on both sides but the key fact is this: all the attacks have failed and the Ukies have been pushed back.

There was also a rumor about Novorussian forces evacuating from Donetsk. This is plain false. A *hospital* with wounded soldiers was evacuated from Donetsk to Russia and a large number of Novorussian forces have also been sent from Donetsk to Saur Mogila. But this is most definitely not an evacuation of Donetsk.

The battle situation is still very heavy everywhere and it is too early to either rejoice or panic. All we can say is that so far the Novorussian forces are holding and that at Saur Mogila the Ukies had to retreat.

I hope that Gleb or Juan will be able to provide more details soon.

Kind regards,

The Saker